Economics - Research Publications

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    Discrete hours labour supply modelling: Specification, estimation and simulation
    CREEDY, J ; KALB, GR (John Wiley & Sons, 2005)
    The assumption behind discrete hours labour supply modelling is that utility-maximising individuals choose from a relatively small number of hours levels, rather than being able to vary hours worked continuously. Such models are becoming widely used in view of their substantial advantages, compared with a continuous hours approach, when estimating and their role in tax policy microsimulation. This paper provides an introduction to the basic analytics of discrete hours labour supply modelling. Special attention is given to model specification, maximum likelihood estimation and microsimulation of tax reforms. The analysis is at each stage illustrated by the use of numerical examples. At the end, an empirical example of a hypothetical policy change to the social security system is given to illustrate the role of discrete hours microsimulation in the analysis of tax and transfer policy changes.
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    A comparison of alternative tests of contagion with applications
    DUNGEY, M. ; FRY, R. ; GONZALEZ-HERMOSILLO, B. ; MARTIN, V. (Oxford University Press, 2005)
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    Anti-dumping and competition law
    LLOYD, PJ ; MACRORY, PFJ ; PLUMMER, MG ; APPLETON, AE (Springer Science+Business Media, 2005)
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    What is a Single Market? An Application to the Case of ASEAN
    LLOYD, P. (Institute of Southeast Asian Studies, 2007)
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    The Commodity Coverage of PTAs: does agriculture matter?
    MACLAREN, D. (Edward Elgar Publishing, 2007)
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    Welfare-Based and Trade-based Indicators of National Distortions
    LLOYD, P ; Croser, J ; Anderson, K ; Anderson, K (Palgrave Macmillan, 2009)
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    Phillips Curve and the Equilibrium Unemployment Rate*
    LIM, GC ; DIXON, R ; TSIAPLIAS, S (Wiley, 2009-12)
    A time‐varying Phillips Curve was estimated as a means to examine the changing nature of the relationship between wage inflation and the unemployment rate in Australia. The implied time‐varying equilibrium unemployment rate was generated and the analysis showed the important role played by variations in the slope of the Phillips Curve in changing the equilibrium unemployment rate. The deviations of actual unemployment rates from the estimated equilibrium unemployment rates also performed remarkably well as measures of inflationary pressure.
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    The role of portfolio shocks in a structural vector autoregressive model of the Australian economy
    Fry, R ; Hocking, J ; Martin, VL (BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, 2008-03)
    Domestic and foreign equity shocks on the Australian economy are analysed within a five‐variate structural vector autoregressive model, with identification achieved through long‐run restrictions based on the natural rate hypothesis, monetary neutrality, long‐run portfolio balance and purchasing power parity. The results show that real equity values were undervalued by 19 per cent by June 2005, with the gap narrowing thereafter. Foreign crises are important factors explaining this deterioration. The real wealth effects of equity market shocks impact significantly upon financial and goods market prices, whereas output tends to be immune. The model is also able to address puzzles that exist in the vector autoregression literature.