Economics - Research Publications
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ItemRegional Differences in the Severity of Recessions in the UK(Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 2007)
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ItemCommon cycles in labour market separation rates for Australian states( 2007-04)There is a considerable body of evidence showing that it is the inflow intounemployment that drives the unemployment rate up and down and so from a policy point ofview an important question is whether or not movements in state inflow reflect the impact ofstate-specific shocks or common shocks affecting the entire economy This paper reports theresults of using principal components analysis to search for a common cycle in time series datafor the rate at which people are leaving employment and moving to unemployment in the sixstates of Australia. It is concluded that there is a common cyclical component to each of thestate’s separation rates but that it accounts for only a small part of the total variation weobserve in the data set. In addition there are large idiosyncratic variations especially in the caseof three of the six states. These findings strengthen the case for regional labour market policyin Australia.
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ItemInvestment, profits and employmentin Kalecki & Keynes( 2007-03)This paper sets out my response to the articles by Paul Davidson in the Journal of PostKeynesian Economics in 2000 and 2002 dealing with the (supposed) superiority of Keynes’sexplanation of the “ultimate cause” of unemployment over that of Kalecki. I show that thereare a number of serious errors in Davidson’s explanation of Kalecki’s theories. I also arguethat we would have less of this sort of nonsense if ‘post keynesians’ like Davidson were torecognize that, for Keynes as for Kalecki, aggregate demand shocks are profit shocks. In thefinal section of the paper I explain why it is that I none-the-less agree most emphatically withDavidson when he says that Kalecki and Keynes had quite different ideas on the ‘causes’ or‘origins’ of (involuntary) unemployment in a capitalist economy.
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ItemUnemployment Rate Dispersion in Melbourne: The Regional Dimension(Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 2007)
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ItemModels of labour services andestimates of Total Factor Productivity( 2007-01)This paper examines the manner in which labour services are modelled in the aggregateproduction function, concentrating on the relationship between numbers employed and averagehours worked. It argues that numbers employed and hours worked are not perfect substitutesand that conventional estimates of total factor productivity which, by using total hours workedas the measure of labour services, assume they are perfect substitutes, will be biased whenthere are marked changes in average hours worked. The relevance of the theoretical argumentis illustrated using data for the United States and the United Kingdom.
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ItemUnemployment Rate Dispersion within Australian Cities(Department of Economics, The University of Melbourne, 2007)