Economics - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableThe dragon Down Under: the regional labour market impact of growth in Chinese imports to Australia(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2023-11-02)
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ItemIndia's Long Road: The Search for Prosperity(WILEY, 2017-12)
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ItemIs It 'Dog Days' for the Young in the Australian Labour Market?(WILEY, 2021-12)Abstract From 2008–2019 there was a substantial deterioration in employment outcomes for the young (aged 15–24 years) in Australia. Their employment/population rate decreased by 4.3 percentage points, whereas for those aged 25 years and above it increased by 1 percentage point. We argue that the major cause was the young being ‘crowded out’ from employment due to an increase in labour market competition. Adjustment to increased competition also meant they were more likely to: be employed part‐time or long‐term unemployed; start their work careers in lower‐quality jobs; and need to compete for jobs through activities such as unpaid internships.
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ItemThe Impact of Growth in Manufactured Imports from China on Employment in Australia*(WILEY, 2021-06)We examine how rapid growth in imports of manufactured goods from China affected employment in Australia from 1991 to 2006. Alternative sources of variation in Chinese import exposure (at industry level and between local labour markets) are used to identify the effect on employment. Growth in imports from China is estimated to have reduced manufacturing employment by around 53,200 to 78,900 workers, representing 5.3 to 7.5 per cent of that workforce in 1991. Largest impacts are found for manufacturing industries most exposed to import competition from China; and from 2001 to 2006 when import growth was strongest.
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ItemThe Australian Labour Market and the Early Impact of COVID-19: An Assessment(Wiley, 2020-09-14)From March to June 2020 was the most dramatic four months in the history of the Australian labour market. Never before has a such a substantial decrease in labour demand (and partial reversal) occurred so quickly. In this article, we present an overview of the early impact of COVID-19: the main drivers it brought into play and the consequent labour market developments. Aggregate effects and how impacts differed by type of job and worker are described. We conclude with a brief review of the main government response to COVID-19, the JobKeeper program.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableIndividual placement and support for vocational recovery in first-episode psychosis: randomised controlled trial(Cambridge University Press, 2019)BACKGROUND: High unemployment is a hallmark of psychotic illness. Individual placement and support (IPS) may be effective at assisting the vocational recoveries of young people with first-episode psychosis (FEP).AimsTo examine the effectiveness of IPS at assisting young people with FEP to gain employment (Australian and Clinical Trials Registry ACTRN12608000094370). METHOD: Young people with FEP (n = 146) who were interested in vocational recovery were randomised using computer-generated random permuted blocks on a 1:1 ratio to: (a) 6 months of IPS in addition to treatment as usual (TAU) or (b) TAU alone. Assessments were conducted at baseline, 6 months (end of intervention), 12 months and 18 months post-baseline by research assistants who were masked to the treatment allocations. RESULTS: At the end of the intervention the IPS group had a significantly higher rate of having been employed (71.2%) than the TAU group (48.0%), odds ratio 3.40 (95% CI 1.17-9.91, z = 2.25, P = 0.025). However, this difference was not seen at 12- and 18-month follow-up points. There was no difference at any time point on educational outcomes. CONCLUSIONS: This is the largest trial to our knowledge on the effectiveness of IPS in FEP. The IPS group achieved a very high employment rate during the 6 months of the intervention. However, the advantage of IPS was not maintained in the long term. This seems to be related more to an unusually high rate of employment being achieved in the control group rather than a gross reduction in employment among the IPS group.Declaration of interestNone.
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ItemChanging the Life Trajectories of Australia's Most Vulnerable Children - Report No. 2 The first twelve months in the Early Years Education Program: An initial assessment of the impact on children and their primary caregivers(Melbourne Institute of Applied Economic and Social Research, 2018)This report presents initial findings on the impact on children and their primary caregivers after twelve months of enrollment in the Early Years Education Program (EYEP). EYEP is a model of early years care and education targeted at the particular needs of children who are exposed to significant family stress and social disadvantage. Children who participate in EYEP are offered three years of care and education (50 weeks per year, five hours per day each week). Key features of EYEP are high staff/child ratios, qualified and experienced staff, an infant mental health consultant in the team and a rigorously developed curriculum. A relationship-based pedagogy is used to ensure that children are ready for learning. The ultimate objective of EYEP is to ensure that at-risk and vulnerable children realise their full potential and arrive at school developmentally and educationally equal to their peers. The impact of EYEP is being evaluated through a Randomised Controlled Trial (RCT) as part of the Early Years Education Research Program (EYERP); otherwise referred to in this report as the ‘EYEP trial’. Children for whom consent was given to participate in the EYEP trial were randomly assigned into either an intervention group who were enrolled in EYEP or to a control group. Estimates of the impact of EYEP on children and their primary caregivers are derived from comparisons of outcomes between the intervention group and the control group. Measurement of outcomes described in this report took place twelve months after entry to the trial.
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ItemAre Robots Taking Our Jobs?(Wiley, 2017-12)This article assesses the effect of computer-based technologies on employment in Australia. We find that: (i) the total amount of work available has not decreased following the introduction of computer-based technologies; and (ii) the pace of structural change and job turnover in the labour market has not accelerated with the increasing application of computer-based technologies. A review of recent studies that claim computer-based technologies may be about to cause widespread job destruction establishes several major flaws with these predictions. Our suggested explanation for why techno-phobia has such a grip on popular imagination is a human bias to believe that ‘we live in special times’.
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ItemLabour Market Inequality in Australia(Wiley, 2016-01-01)This article reviews developments in labour market inequality in Australia. First, descriptive information on changes in labour market inequality and on the causes of those changes is integrated with a summary of findings from recent research. Second, the effect of changes in labour market inequality on income inequality is evaluated. Third, evidence on differences in earnings and employment outcomes between specific groups - by gender, Indigenous status and country of birth - is considered. Finally, some suggestions for future research are presented.