Economics - Research Publications
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ItemRuin problems in Markov-modulated risk models(Cambridge University Press, 2018-03-01)Chen et al. (2014), studied a discrete semi-Markov risk model that covers existing risk models such as the compound binomial model and the compound Markov binomial model. We consider their model and build numerical algorithms that provide approximations to the probability of ultimate ruin and the probability and severity of ruin in a continuous time two-state Markov-modulated risk model. We then study the finite time ruin probability for a discrete m-state model and show how we can approximate the density of the time of ruin in a continuous time Markov-modulated model with more than two states.
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ItemAn identity based on the generalised negative binomial distribution with applications in ruin theory(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2019)In this study, we show how expressions for the probability of ultimate ruin can be obtained from the probability function of the time of ruin in a particular compound binomial risk model, and from the density of the time of ruin in a particular Sparre Andersen risk model. In each case evaluation of generalised binomial series is required, and the argument of each series has a common form. We evaluate these series by creating an identity based on the generalised negative binomial distribution. We also show how the same ideas apply to the probability function of the number of claims in a particular Sparre Andersen model.
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ItemAnalysis of some ruin-related quantities in a Markov-modulated risk model(Taylor, 2016)In this paper, we study the joint Laplace transform and probability generating function of some random quantities that occur in each environment state by the time of ruin in a Markov-modulated risk process. These quantities include the duration spent in each state, the number of claims and the aggregate amount of claims that occurred in each state by the time of ruin. Explicit formulae for the joint transforms, given the initial surplus, and the initial and terminal environment states, are expressed in terms of a matrix version of the scale function. Moments and covariances of these ruin-related quantities are obtained and numerical illustrations are presented. The joint transform of the duration spent in each state, the number of claims, and the aggregate amount of claims that occurred in each state by the time the surplus attains a certain level are also investigated.
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ItemOptimal reinsurance under multiple attribute decision making(Cambridge University Press (CUP), 2016)We apply methods from multiple attribute decision making (MADM) to the problem of selecting an optimal reinsurance level. In particular, we apply the Technique for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution method with Mahalanobis distance. We consider the classical risk model under a reinsurance arrangement – either excess of loss or proportional – and we consider scenarios that have the same finite time ruin probability. For each of these scenarios we calculate three quantities: released capital, expected profit and expected utility of resulting wealth. Using these inputs, we apply MADM to find optimal retention levels. We compare and contrast our findings with those when decisions are based on a single attribute.
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ItemGerber-Shiu analysis of a risk model with capital injections(Springer Verlag, 2016)We consider the risk model with capital injections studied by Nie et al. (Ann Actuar Sci 5:195–209, 2011; Scand Actuar J 2015:301–318, 2015). We construct a Gerber–Shiu function and show that whilst this tool is not efficient for finding the ultimate ruin probability, it provides an effective way of studying ruin related quantities in finite time. In particular, we find a general expression for the joint distribution of the time of ruin and the number of claims until ruin, and find an extension of Prabhu’s (Ann Math Stat 32:757–764, 1961) formula for the finite time survival probability in the classical risk model. We illustrate our results in the case of exponentially distributed claims and obtain some interesting identities. In particular, we generalise results from the classical risk model and prove the identity of two known formulae for that model.
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ItemA note on some joint distribution functions involving the time of ruin(Elsevier, 2016)In a recent paper, Willmot (2015) derived an expression for the joint distribution function of the time of ruin and the deficit at ruin in the classical risk model. We show how his approach can be applied to obtain a simpler expression, and by interpreting this expression by probabilistic reasoning we obtain solutions for more general risk models. We also discuss how some of Willmot’s results relate to existing literature on the probability and severity of ruin.