Economics - Research Publications
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ItemThe impact of COVID-related economic shocks on household mental health in Pakistan(WILEY, 2022-07-13)We combine data collected just prior to the unfolding of COVID-19 with follow-up data from July 2020 to document the adverse economic effects of the pandemic and resulting impact on parental and child mental well-being in peri-urban Pakistan. 22% of the households in our sample are affected by job loss, with monthly income down 38% on average. Our difference-in-difference results show that job loss is associated with a 0.88 standard deviation (SD) increase in adult mental distress scores (K10), a 0.43 SD reduction in a Hope index of children's aspirations, agency and future pathways, and a 0.39 SD increase in children's depression symptoms. In addition, we observe higher levels of parental stress and anger reported by children, as well as an increase in reported prevalence of domestic violence. Overall, we document that the pandemic has disproportionately and negatively affected the economic and mental well-being of the most vulnerable households in our sample.
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ItemPrice effects of calling out market power: A study of the COVID-19 oil price shock(WILEY, 2022-05-19)Governments often make public announcements that call into question firms' misuse of market power. Yet little is known about how firms respond to them. We study gasoline retailers' price responses to antitrust announcements shaming them for price gouging during the COVID-19 pandemic. We identify price effects using a high-frequency event-study leveraging unique real-time station-level price data and well-identified, discrete antitrust announcements. We find evidence of announcement effects that depend on firms' preannouncement margins and hence exposure to being publicly shamed. Public statements by antitrust questioning firms' misuse of market power can indeed contain signals that affect equilibrium outcomes.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableModeling time varying risk of natural resource assets: Implications of climate change(WILEY, 2022-01-01)A multivariate GARCH model of natural resources is specified to capture the effects of time varying portfolio risk. A special feature of the model is the inclusion of realized volatility for natural resource assets that are available at multiple frequencies as well as being sensitive to sudden changes in climatic conditions. Natural resource portfolios under climate change are simulated from bootstrapping schemes as well as being derived from global climate model projections. Both approaches are applied to a multiasset water portfolio model consisting of reservoir inflows, rainwater harvesting, and desalinated water. The empirical results show that while reservoirs remain the dominant water asset, adaptation to climate change involves increased contributions from rainwater harvesting and more frequent use of desalinated water. It is estimated that climate change increases annual water supply costs by between 7% and 44% over a 20‐year forecast horizon.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableNo Influence of Age-Related Hearing Loss on Brain Amyloid-beta(IOS PRESS, 2022-01-01)BACKGROUND: Hearing loss is independently associated with a faster rate of cognitive decline in older adults and has been identified as a modifiable risk factor for dementia. The mechanism for this association is unknown, and there has been limited exploration of potential casual pathology. OBJECTIVE: Our objective was to investigate whether there was an association between degree of audiometrically measured hearing loss (HL) and brain amyloid-β (Aβ) in a pre-clinical sample. METHODS: Participants of the Australian Imaging and Biomarker Longitudinal Study (AIBL; n = 143) underwent positron emission tomography (PET) imaging and objective measurement of hearing thresholds within 5 years of imaging, as well as cognitive assessment within 2 years of imaging in this observational cohort study. RESULTS: With one exception, study participants who had cognitive assessments within 2 years of their PET imaging (n = 113) were classified as having normal cognition. There was no association between cognitive scores and degree of hearing loss, or between cognitive scores and Aβ load. No association between HL and Aβ load was found once age was controlled for. As previously reported, positive Apolipoprotein E4 (APOE4) carrier status increased the risk of being Aβ positive (p = 0.002). CONCLUSION: Degree of HL was not associated with positive Aβ status.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableRacial bias in newspaper ratings of professional football players(ELSEVIER, 2021-12-13)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableIs it a fallacy to believe in the hot hand in the NBA three-point contest?(Elsevier BV, 2021-09-01)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableBehavioral Constraints on the Design of Subgame-Perfect Implementation Mechanisms(AMER ECONOMIC ASSOC, 2021-04-01)We study subgame-perfect implementation (SPI) mechanisms that have been proposed as a solution to incomplete contracting problems. We show that these mechanisms, which are based on off-equilibrium arbitration clauses that impose large fines for lying and the inappropriate use of arbitration, have severe behavioral constraints because the fines induce retaliation against legitimate uses of arbitration. Incorporating reciprocity preferences into the theory explains the observed behavioral patterns and helps us develop a new mechanism that is more robust and achieves high rates of truth-telling and efficiency. Our results highlight the importance of tailoring implementation mechanisms to the underlying behavioral environment. (JEL C92, D44, D82, D86, D91)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableLabor market policies during an epidemic(Elsevier, 2021-02-01)We study the positive and normative implications of labor market policies that counteract the economic fallout from containment measures during an epidemic. We incorporate a standard epidemiological model into an equilibrium search model of the labor market to compare unemployment insurance (UI) expansions and payroll subsidies. In isolation, payroll subsidies that preserve match capital and enable a swift economic recovery are preferred over a cost-equivalent UI expansion. When considered jointly, however, a cost-equivalent optimal mix allocates 20 percent of the budget to payroll subsidies and 80 percent to UI. The two policies are complementary, catering to different rungs of the productivity ladder. The small share of payroll subsidies is sufficient to preserve high-productivity jobs, but it leaves room for social assistance to workers who face inevitable job loss.
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ItemWhen it Rains, it Pours: Estimating the Spatial Spillover Effect of Rainfall(SPRINGER, 2022-04-16)Abstract A large fraction of the world’s poor rely on rain-fed agriculture, which makes them vulnerable to changes in rainfall patterns. In this paper, we examine whether spatial correlation in rainfall results in these households also being vulnerable to an adverse spatial-spillover effect. In particular, we use household-level panel data from India along with high-resolution meteorological data to show how rural household consumption varies with own-region rainfall as well as rainfall in neighboring areas. We find that while greater own rainfall has a positive effect on rural household consumption, greater rainfall in neighboring regions has an adverse spatial-spillover effect. Our results suggest that when this spillover effect is taken into account, the positive impact of own-region rainfall on household consumption falls by 38 percent.