Economics - Research Publications
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ItemThe role of portfolio shocks in a structural vector autoregressive model of the Australian economy(BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, 2008-03)Domestic and foreign equity shocks on the Australian economy are analysed within a five‐variate structural vector autoregressive model, with identification achieved through long‐run restrictions based on the natural rate hypothesis, monetary neutrality, long‐run portfolio balance and purchasing power parity. The results show that real equity values were undervalued by 19 per cent by June 2005, with the gap narrowing thereafter. Foreign crises are important factors explaining this deterioration. The real wealth effects of equity market shocks impact significantly upon financial and goods market prices, whereas output tends to be immune. The model is also able to address puzzles that exist in the vector autoregression literature.
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ItemComputing the Distributions of Economic Models via Simulation(Econometric Society, 2008-03-18)We study a Monte Carlo algorithm for computing marginal and stationary densities of stochastic models with the Markov property, establishing global asymptotic normality and OP(n–1/2) convergence. Asymptotic normality is used to derive error bounds in terms of the distribution of the norm deviation.
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ItemInternational monetary policy surprise spillovers(ELSEVIER, 2008-05)