Office for Environmental Programs - Theses
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ItemImplications of economic factors on TCFD scenario analysis( 2019)The Task Force on Climate-related Financial Disclosures (TCFD) has recommended that corporations publish a number of disclosures designed to inform investors and other interested stakeholders of the corporation’s exposure to risks relating to climate change. One key recommendation is that corporations undertake scenario analysis against climate scenarios, including (at a minimum) a 2°C scenario. However, the TCFD has identified scenario analysis as the recommended disclosure with the lowest level of implementation by organisations (TCFD, 2018). This was supported by analysis undertaken by Market Forces (2019) which confirmed that of 72 corporations in the ASX100 that operate in key sectors identified by the TCFD, only ten had undertaken scenario analysis on either their entire business or significant segments of their operations. This research considers the publicly-available scenarios being utilised by these corporations, and examines the economic assumptions underpinning these scenarios to determine whether such assumptions are realistic and robust by comparing these assumptions against projections from mainstream economic forecasters. Ensuring that these scenarios are based on robust assumptions may support the usefulness of scenario analysis as a source of information for corporations and investors, as well as for other stakeholders. The results of this analysis show that the ten corporations identified by Market Forces use a wide variety of climate-related scenarios and targets, including legislated targets, scenarios published by the International Energy Agency, and the Representative Concentration Pathways. In several cases, corporations either combine multiple publicly-available scenarios into a single tailored scenario or modify underlying assumptions of a publicly-available scenario to better suit their assumptions and circumstances. Further, comparison of the economic assumptions underpinning these scenarios against long-term economic forecasts suggests that some publicly-available 1.5 and 2°C-aligned climate scenarios (particularly the Shared Socioeconomic Pathways) may overstate future economic growth rates over the short term (to 2030) and medium term (to 2040), which may negatively impact the robustness of these scenarios. Possible reasons for this difference include changed macroeconomic and geopolitical contexts since the scenarios and forecasts were first developed, and different consideration of the underlying state of the economy as an input into the scenario or forecast (for example, levels of debt following the global financial crisis in 2008 and 2009). It is also noteworthy that the potential impacts of climate change on the economy are explicitly excluded from most of the identified scenarios. These results are discussed in the context of the challenges for corporations and investors in undertaking scenario analysis, as well as in the broader context of the interrelationship between the environment and the economy.
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ItemLike Icarus ascending: divergent rationalities in the climate movement on solar geoengineering( 2019)Solar geoengineering has emerged as a controversial proposal to address global heating by modifying the reflectivity of the earth, reducing incoming solar radiation. This research comprises a qualitative investigation into why individuals who share concern regarding the climate crisis disagree about the acceptability of solar geoengineering as a response. Semi-structured interviews were conducted with members of the climate movement in Australia in an effort to understand the values and arguments underpinning their perspectives on solar geoengineering. The data was analysed through the lens of the theory of sociocultural viability (cultural theory) and insights derived from science and technology studies (STS). The research suggests that participants diverge in three significant respects: their experience of uncertainty, their modes of ethical reasoning, and their ideal conception of decision-making on solar geoengineering. This thesis argues that these variances are not random, but reflect divergent rationalities derived from biases that accord with disparate yet coherent ways of seeing the world. Four ideal-type perspectives are introduced to characterise this variance. Millenarian thinking—the idea that the present era will soon end—is suggested as one compelling drive towards further polarisation, although its significance varies in line with each way of seeing the world. The thesis concludes by offering cautions and recommendations for the rejuvenation of climate discourse in Australia, with special reference to the treatment of science and the interpretation of competing claims.