Melbourne School of Psychological Sciences - Theses

Permanent URI for this collection

Now showing 1 - 1 of 1

An investigation of forecasting behaviour

Ryan, Anthony Michael ( 2002)

To manage an uncertain future relevant societal groups, such as government and corporate sectors, utilise economic forecasts to help plan future strategies. Many vital decisions are based on economic forecasts. Economists have traditionally been the professionals employed as economic forecasting experts. The dominant paradigm for present day forecasting is the "rational expectations theory", which assumes that a forecaster is capable of making optimal use all of the available information. The field of psychology offers a different, yet complementary, approach to the topic of economic forecasting. The aim of the current study was to research mental processes and behaviours of individuals participating in a forecasting task. The role of the following psychological variables within economic prediction behaviour was assessed: (1) task complexity, (2) decision making style, (3) the anchoring and adjustment heuristic, (4) the framing effect, and (5) personal feelings about the task content. All of these variables were hypothesised to have a direct influence on prediction behaviour. In addition, task complexity and decision making style were assumed to moderate the influence of the other psychological variables. A conceptual framework was designed to depict the assumed relationships. (For complete abstract open document)