General Practice and Primary Care - Research Publications
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ItemDeveloping and internally validating a prediction model for total knee replacement surgery in patients with osteoarthritis.(Elsevier BV, 2022-09)OBJECTIVE: The objective of this study was to develop and internally validate a clinical algorithm for use in general practice that predicts the probability of total knee replacement (TKR) surgery within the next five years for patients with osteoarthritis. The purpose of the model is to encourage early uptake of first-line treatment strategies in patients likely to undergo TKR and to provide a cohort for the development and testing of novel interventions that prevent or delay the progression to TKR. METHOD: Electronic health records (EHRs) from 201,462 patients with osteoarthritis aged 45 years and over from 483 general practices across Australia were linked with records from the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry and the National Death Index. A Fine and Gray competing risk prediction model was developed using these data to predict the risk of TKR within the next five years. RESULTS: During a follow-up time of 5 years, 15,979 (7.9%) patients underwent TKR and 13,873 (6.9%) died. Predictors included in the final algorithm were age, previous knee replacement, knee surgery (other than TKR), prescribing of osteoarthritis medication in the 12 months prior, comorbidity count and diagnosis of a mental health condition. Optimism corrected model discrimination was 0.67 (95% CI: 0.66 to 0.67) and model calibration acceptable. CONCLUSION: The model has the potential to reduce some of the economic burden associated with TKR in Australia. External validation and further optimisation of the algorithm will be carried out prior to implementation within Australian general practice EHR systems.
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ItemAssessing the suitability of general practice electronic health records for clinical prediction model development: a data quality assessment(BMC, 2021-10-30)BACKGROUND: The use of general practice electronic health records (EHRs) for research purposes is in its infancy in Australia. Given these data were collected for clinical purposes, questions remain around data quality and whether these data are suitable for use in prediction model development. In this study we assess the quality of data recorded in 201,462 patient EHRs from 483 Australian general practices to determine its usefulness in the development of a clinical prediction model for total knee replacement (TKR) surgery in patients with osteoarthritis (OA). METHODS: Variables to be used in model development were assessed for completeness and plausibility. Accuracy for the outcome and competing risk were assessed through record level linkage with two gold standard national registries, Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry (AOANJRR) and National Death Index (NDI). The validity of the EHR data was tested using participant characteristics from the 2014-15 Australian National Health Survey (NHS). RESULTS: There were substantial missing data for body mass index and weight gain between early adulthood and middle age. TKR and death were recorded with good accuracy, however, year of TKR, year of death and side of TKR were poorly recorded. Patient characteristics recorded in the EHR were comparable to participant characteristics from the NHS, except for OA medication and metastatic solid tumour. CONCLUSIONS: In this study, data relating to the outcome, competing risk and two predictors were unfit for prediction model development. This study highlights the need for more accurate and complete recording of patient data within EHRs if these data are to be used to develop clinical prediction models. Data linkage with other gold standard data sets/registries may in the meantime help overcome some of the current data quality challenges in general practice EHRs when developing prediction models.
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ItemAssociations between multimorbidity and glycaemia (HbA1c) in people with type 2 diabetes: cross-sectional study in Australian general practice(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2020)OBJECTIVES: To explore the prevalence of multimorbidity as well as individual and combinations of long-term conditions (LTCs) in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) attending Australian general practice, using electronic health record (EHR) data. We also examine the association between multimorbidity condition count (total/concordant(T2D related)/discordant(unrelated)) and glycaemia (glycated haemoglobin, HbA1c). DESIGN: Cross-sectional study. SETTING: Australian general practice. PARTICIPANTS: 69 718 people with T2D with a general practice encounter between 2013 and 2015 captured in the MedicineInsight database (EHR Data from 557 general practices and >3.8 million Australian patients). PRIMARY AND SECONDARY OUTCOME MEASURES: Prevalence of multimorbidity, individual and combinations of LTCs. Multivariable linear regression models used to examine associations between multimorbidity counts and HbA1c (%). RESULTS: Mean (SD) age 66.42 (12.70) years, 46.1% female and mean (SD) HbA1c 7.1 (1.4)%. More than 90% of participants with T2D were living with multimorbidity. Discordant conditions were more prevalent (83.4%) than concordant conditions (69.9 %). The three most prevalent discordant conditions were: painful conditions (55.4%), dyspepsia (31.6%) and depression (22.8%). The three most prevalent concordant conditions were hypertension (61.4%), coronary heart disease (17.1%) and chronic kidney disease (8.5%). The three most common combinations of conditions were: painful conditions and hypertension (38.8%), painful conditions and dyspepsia (23.1%) and hypertension and dyspepsia (22.7%). We found no associations between any multimorbidity counts (total, concordant and discordant) or combinations and HbA1c. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity was common in our cohort of people with T2D attending Australian general practice, but was not associated with glycaemia. Although we did not explore mortality in this study, our results suggest that the increased mortality in those with multimorbidity and T2D observed in other studies may not be linked to glycaemia. Interestingly, discordant conditions were more prevalent than concordant conditions with painful conditions being the second most common comorbidity. Better understanding of the implications of different patterns of multimorbidity in people with T2D will allow more effective tailored care.
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ItemExpectancy after the first treatment and response to acupuncture for menopausal hot flashes(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2017-10-27)BACKGROUND: Evidence on the impact of expectancy on acupuncture treatment response is conflicting. OBJECTIVES: This secondary analysis of a randomized sham-controlled trial on acupuncture for menopausal hot flashes investigated whether treatment expectancy score was associated with hot flash score at end-of-treatment. Secondary analyses investigated whether there were associations between other pre-specified factors and hot flash score. STUDY DESIGN: Women experiencing moderately-severe hot flashes were randomized to receive 10 sessions of real or sham acupuncture over eight weeks. Hot flash score was collected using a seven-day hot flash diary, and expectancy using the modified Credibility and Expectancy Questionnaire immediately after the first treatment. Linear mixed-effects models with random intercepts were used to identify associations between expectancy score and hot flash score at end-of-treatment. Regression was also used to identify associations between pre-specified factors of interest and hot flash score. Because there was no difference between real and sham acupuncture for the primary outcome of hot flash score, both arms were combined in the analysis. RESULTS: 285 women returned the Credibility and Expectancy Questionnaire, and 283 women completed both expectancy measures. We found no evidence for an association between expectancy and hot flash score at end-of-treatment for individual cases in either acupuncture or sham group. Hot flash scores at end-of-treatment were 8.1 (95%CI, 3.0 to 13.2; P = 0.002) points lower in regular smokers compared to those who had never smoked, equivalent to four fewer moderate hot flashes a day. CONCLUSION: In our study of acupuncture for menopausal hot flashes, higher expectancy after the first treatment did not predict better treatment outcomes. Future research may focus on other determinants of outcomes in acupuncture such as therapist attention. The relationship between smoking and hot flashes is poorly understood and needs further exploration.
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ItemDeveloping prediction models for total knee replacement surgery in patients with osteoarthritis: Statistical analysis plan(Elsevier BV, 2020-12)Background Approximately 12–20% of those with osteoarthritis (OA) in Australia who undergo total knee replacement (TKR) surgery do not report any clinical improvement. There is a need to develop prediction tools for use in general practice that allow early identification of patients likely to undergo TKR and those unlikely to benefit from the surgery. First-line treatment strategies can then be implemented and optimised to delay or prevent the need for TKR. The identification of potential non-responders to TKR may provide the opportunity for new treatment strategies to be developed and help ensure surgery is reserved for those most likely to benefit. This statistical analysis plan (SAP) details the statistical methodology used to develop such prediction tools. Objective To describe in detail the statistical methods used to develop and validate prediction models for TKR surgery in Australian patients with OA for use in general practice. Methods This SAP contains a brief justification for the need for prediction models for TKR surgery in general practice. A description of the data sources that will be linked and used to develop the models, and estimated sample sizes is provided. The planned methodologies for candidate predictor selection, model development, measuring model performance and internal model validation are described in detail. Intended table layouts for presentation of model results are provided. Conclusion Consistent with best practice guidelines, the statistical methodologies outlined in this SAP have been pre-specified prior to data pre-processing and model development.
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ItemCost-effectiveness of professional-mode flash glucose monitoring in general practice among adults with type 2 diabetes: Evidence from the GP-OSMOTIC trial(WILEY, 2022-03)AIM: To assess the cost-effectiveness of professional-mode flash glucose monitoring in adults with type 2 diabetes in general practice compared with usual clinical care. METHODS: An economic evaluation was conducted as a component of the GP-OSMOTIC trial, a pragmatic multicentre 12-month randomised controlled trial enrolling 299 adults with type 2 diabetes in Victoria, Australia. The economic evaluation was conducted from an Australian healthcare sector perspective with a lifetime horizon. Health-related quality of life (EQ-5D) and total healthcare costs were compared between the intervention and the usual care group within the trial period. The 'UKPDS Outcomes Model 2' was used to simulate post-trial lifetime costs, life expectancy and quality-adjusted life years (QALYs). RESULTS: No significant difference in health-related quality of life and costs was found between the two groups within the trial period. Professional-mode flash glucose monitoring yielded greater QALYs (0.03 [95% CI: 0.02, 0.04]) and a higher cost (A$3807 [95% CI: 3604, 4007]) compared with usual clinical care using a lifetime horizon under the trial-based monitoring frequency, considered not cost-effective (incremental cost-effectiveness ratio = A$120,228). The intervention becomes cost-effective if sensor price is reduced to lower than 50%, or monitoring frequency is decreased to once per year while maintaining the same treatment effect on HbA1c . CONCLUSIONS: Including professional-mode flash glucose monitoring every 3 months as part of a management plan for people with type 2 diabetes in general practice is not cost-effective, but could be if the sensor price or monitoring frequency can be reduced.
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ItemEffectiveness of a Mental Health Service Navigation Website (Link) for Young Adults: Randomized Controlled Trial(JMIR Publications, 2019-10-17)Background: Mental health and substance use disorders are the main causes of disability among adolescents and young adults yet fewer than half experiencing these problems seek professional help. Young people frequently search the Web for health information and services, suggesting that Web-based modalities might promote help-seeking among young people who need it. To support young people in their help-seeking, we developed a Web-based mental health service navigation website called Link. Link is based on the Theory of Planned Behavior and connects young people with treatment based on the type and severity of mental health symptoms that they report Objective: The study aimed to investigate the effect of Link on young people’s positive affect (PA) compared with usual help-seeking strategies immediately post intervention. Secondary objectives included testing the effect of Link on negative affect (NA), psychological distress, barriers to help-seeking, and help-seeking intentions. Methods: Young people, aged between 18 and 25 years, were recruited on the Web from an open access website to participate in a randomized controlled trial. Participants were stratified by gender and psychological distress into either the intervention arm (Link) or the control arm (usual help-seeking strategies). Baseline, immediate postintervention, 1-month, and 3-month surveys were self-reported and administered on the Web. Measures included the PA and NA scales, Kessler psychological distress scale (K10), barriers to adolescent help-seeking scale (BASH), and the general help-seeking questionnaire (GHSQ). Results: In total 413 young people were recruited to the trial (intervention, n=205; control, n=208) and 78% (160/205) of those randomized to the intervention arm visited the Link website. There was no evidence to support a difference between the intervention and control arms on the primary outcome, with PA increasing equally by approximately 30% between baseline and 3 months in both arms. NA decreased for the intervention arm compared with the control arm with a difference of 1.4 (95% CI 0.2-2.5) points immediately after the intervention and 2.6 (95% CI 1.1-4.1) at 1 month. K10 scores were unchanged and remained high in both arms. No changes were found on the BASH or GHSQ; however, participants in the intervention arm appeared more satisfied with their help-seeking process and outcomes at 1 and 3 months postintervention. The process of prompting young people to seek mental health information and services appears to improve their affective state and increase help-seeking intentions, regardless of whether they use a Web-based dedicated youth-focused tool, such as Link, or their usual search strategies. However, young people report greater satisfaction using tools designed specifically for them, which may encourage future help-seeking. The ability of Web-based tools to match mental health needs with appropriate care should be explored further.
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ItemMultimorbidity, mortality, and HbA1c in type 2 diabetes: A cohort study with UK and Taiwanese cohorts(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2020-05)BACKGROUND: There is emerging interest in multimorbidity in type 2 diabetes (T2D), which can be either concordant (T2D related) or discordant (unrelated), as a way of understanding the burden of disease in T2D. Current diabetes guidelines acknowledge the complex nature of multimorbidity, the management of which should be based on the patient's individual clinical needs and comorbidities. However, although associations between multimorbidity, glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c), and mortality in people with T2D have been studied to some extent, significant gaps remain, particularly regarding different patterns of multimorbidity, including concordant and discordant conditions. This study explores associations between multimorbidity (total condition counts/concordant/discordant/different combinations of conditions), baseline HbA1c, and all-cause mortality in T2D. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We studied two longitudinal cohorts of people with T2D using the UK Biobank (n = 20,569) and the Taiwan National Diabetes Care Management Program (NDCMP) (n = 59,657). The number of conditions in addition to T2D was used to quantify total multimorbidity, concordant, and discordant counts, and the effects of different combinations of conditions were also studied. Outcomes of interest were baseline HbA1c and all-cause mortality. For the UK Biobank and Taiwan NDCMP, mean (SD) ages were 60.2 (6.8) years and 60.8 (11.3) years; 7,579 (36.8%) and 31,339 (52.5%) were female; body mass index (BMI) medians (IQR) were 30.8 (27.7, 34.8) kg/m2 and 25.6 (23.5, 28.7) kg/m2; and 2,197 (10.8%) and 9,423 (15.8) were current smokers, respectively. Increasing total and discordant multimorbidity counts were associated with lower HbA1c and increased mortality in both datasets. In Taiwan NDCMP, for those with four or more additional conditions compared with T2D only, the mean difference (95% CI) in HbA1c was -0.82% (-0.88, -0.76) p < 0.001. In UK Biobank, hazard ratios (HRs) (95% CI) for all-cause mortality in people with T2D and one, two, three, and four or more additional conditions compared with those without comorbidity were 1.20 (0.91-1.56) p < 0.001, 1.75 (1.35-2.27) p < 0.001, 2.17 (1.67-2.81) p < 0.001, and 3.14 (2.43-4.03) p < 0.001, respectively. Both concordant/discordant conditions were significantly associated with mortality; however, HRs were largest for concordant conditions. Those with four or more concordant conditions had >5 times the mortality (5.83 [4.28-7.93] p <0.001). HRs for NDCMP were similar to those from UK Biobank for all multimorbidity counts. For those with two conditions in addition to T2D, cardiovascular diseases featured in 18 of the top 20 combinations most highly associated with mortality in UK Biobank and 12 of the top combinations in the Taiwan NDCMP. In UK Biobank, a combination of coronary heart disease and heart failure in addition to T2D had the largest effect size on mortality, with a HR (95% CI) of 4.37 (3.59-5.32) p < 0.001, whereas in the Taiwan NDCMP, a combination of painful conditions and alcohol problems had the largest effect size on mortality, with an HR (95% CI) of 4.02 (3.08-5.23) p < 0.001. One limitation to note is that we were unable to model for changes in multimorbidity during our study period. CONCLUSIONS: Multimorbidity patterns associated with the highest mortality differed between UK Biobank (a population predominantly comprising people of European descent) and the Taiwan NDCMP, a predominantly ethnic Chinese population. Future research should explore the mechanisms underpinning the observed relationship between increasing multimorbidity count and reduced HbA1c alongside increased mortality in people with T2D and further examine the implications of different patterns of multimorbidity across different ethnic groups. Better understanding of these issues, especially effects of condition type, will enable more effective personalisation of care.
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ItemSocioeconomic status and time in glucose target range in people with type 2 diabetes: a baseline analysis of the GP-OSMOTIC study(BMC, 2018-07-21)BACKGROUND: Optimal glycaemia, reflected by glycated haemoglobin (HbA1c) levels, is key in reducing type 2 diabetes (T2D) complications. However, most people with T2D have suboptimal recall and understanding of HbA1c. Continuous glucose monitoring (CGM) measures glucose levels every 5 to 15-min over days and may be more readily understood. Given that T2D is more common in lower socioeconomic settings, we aim to study relationships between socioeconomic status (SES) and percentage time in glucose target range (TIR) which is a key metric calculated from CGM. METHODS: Analysis of baseline data from the General Practice Optimising Structured MOnitoring To Improve Clinical outcomes (GP-OSMOTIC) randomised controlled trial (October 2016 - November 2017) of 300 people with T2D from 25 Victorian General Practices. FreeStyle Libre Pro® sensor patch was used for this study. SES was defined by the Index of Relative Socio-economic Disadvantage (IRSD) and educational attainment. Univariable and multivariable mixed-effects linear regression analyses controlling for age, BMI, diet, exercise and study arm were performed. RESULTS: One hundred and sixty-seven (60.1%) participants were male, the mean (SD) participant age was 61.0 (9.7) years, and the mean (SD) duration of CGM use was 12.3 (2.5) days. The 10th IRSD decile (least disadvantaged) was associated with a 15% higher TIR vs. the 1st decile (most disadvantaged) (95% CI 5, 25; p = 0.003) and a 0.6% lower HbA1c (95% CI 0.1, 1; p = 0.03). There was no evidence of an association between educational attainment and TIR/HbA1c. CONCLUSION: Higher SES measured at an area level is associated with better achievement of glycaemic target using complementary measures of HbA1c and TIR in the GP-OSMOTIC cohort. Given that TIR may be more easily used in patient education and self-management support compared to HbA1c values, the social gradient identified in TIR provides an opportunity for clinicians and policy makers to address health inequities in T2D. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Australian and New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry Trial ACTRN12616001372471 , prospective, Date registered 4/10/2016.
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ItemPrescribing of diabetes medications to people with type 2 diabetes and chronic kidney disease: a national cross-sectional study(BMC, 2019-02-18)BACKGROUND: Previous studies in general practice and hospital settings have identified that prescribing of non-insulin diabetes medications may be sub-optimal in people with type 2 diabetes (T2D) and renal impairment. Since these publications, a number of new medications have become available for the management of T2D. Study aims were to, in a cohort of Australians with T2D and renal impairment attending general practice, (1) investigate whether the prescribing of non-insulin diabetes medications is consistent with dosing adjustments recommended within current Australian Diabetes Society (ADS) guidelines; and (2) identify patient socio-demographic and clinical factors associated with at least one prescription of a non-insulin diabetes medication inconsistent with current ADS guidelines for medication doses. METHODS: Cross-sectional study using data from the MedicineInsight general practice database managed by NPS MedicineWise. Patients with T2D who were aged 18 years and over, with an average eGFR< 60 ml/min/1.73m2 and at least one prescription of a non-insulin diabetes medication between 1st January 2015 and 30th June 2017 were included. Descriptive statistics were used to summarise patient characteristics and medication use. Marginal logistic regression models were used to estimate associations between sociodemographic and clinical factors and prescribing of ≥1non-insulin diabetes medicine not consistent with ADS guidelines. RESULTS: The majority of the 3505 patients included (90.4%) had an average eGFR of 30-59 ml/min/1.73m2. In terms of absolute numbers, metformin was the medication most frequently prescribed at a dose not consistent with current ADS guidelines for dosing in renal impairment (n = 1601 patients), followed by DPP4 inhibitors (n = 611) and sulphonylureas (n = 278). The drug classes with the highest proportion of prescriptions with dosage not consistent with ADS guidelines were SGLT2 inhibitors (83%), followed by biguanides (58%) and DPP4 inhibitors (46%). Higher HbA1c, longer known diabetes duration and diagnosis of retinopathy were associated with receiving ≥1prescription with a dosage not consistent with guidelines. CONCLUSIONS: Prescribing of non-insulin diabetes medications at doses inconsistent with current ADS guideline recommendations for dosing adjustments for people with renal impairment was common. Further research is needed to understand how general practitioners access, interpret and apply the ADS guidelines and the impact this may have on patient outcomes.