Psychiatry - Research Publications

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Start date: 2010 × Author: Patton, George ×

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    Global, regional, and national mortality among young people aged 10-24 years, 1950-2019: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2019
    Ward, JL ; Azzopardi, PS ; Francis, KL ; Santelli, JS ; Skirbekk, V ; Sawyer, SM ; Kassebaum, NJ ; Mokdad, AH ; Hay, SI ; Abd-Allah, F ; Abdoli, A ; Abdollahi, M ; Abedi, A ; Abolhassani, H ; Abreu, LG ; Abrigo, MRM ; Abu-Gharbieh, E ; Abushouk, AI ; Adebayo, OM ; Adekanmbi, V ; Adham, D ; Advani, SM ; Afshari, K ; Agrawal, A ; Ahmad, T ; Ahmadi, K ; Ahmed, AE ; Aji, B ; Akombi-Inyang, B ; Alahdab, F ; Al-Aly, Z ; Alam, K ; Alanezi, FM ; Alanzi, TM ; Alcalde-Rabanal, JE ; Alemu, BW ; Al-Hajj, S ; Alhassan, RK ; Ali, S ; Alicandro, G ; Alijanzadeh, M ; Aljunid, SM ; Almasi-Hashiani, A ; Almasri, NA ; Al-Mekhlafi, HM ; Alonso, J ; Al-Raddadi, RM ; Altirkawi, KA ; Alvis-Guzman, N ; Amare, AT ; Amini, S ; Aminorroaya, A ; Amit, AML ; Amugsi, DA ; Ancuceanu, R ; Anderlini, D ; Andrei, CL ; Androudi, S ; Ansari, F ; Ansari, I ; Antonio, CAT ; Anvari, D ; Anwer, R ; Appiah, SCY ; Arabloo, J ; Arab-Zozani, M ; Arnlov, J ; Asaad, M ; Asadi-Aliabadi, M ; Asadi-Pooya, AA ; Atout, MMW ; Ausloos, M ; Avenyo, EK ; Avila-Burgos, L ; Quintanilla, BPA ; Ayano, G ; Aynalem, YA ; Azari, S ; Azene, ZN ; Bakhshaei, MH ; Bakkannavar, SM ; Banach, M ; Banik, PC ; Barboza, MA ; Barker-Collo, SL ; Baernighausen, TW ; Basu, S ; Baune, BT ; Bayati, M ; Bedi, N ; Beghi, E ; Bekuma, TT ; Bell, AW ; Bell, ML ; Benjet, C ; Bensenor, IM ; Berhe, AK ; Berhe, K ; Berman, AE ; Bhagavathula, AS ; Bhardwaj, N ; Bhardwaj, P ; Bhattacharyya, K ; Bhattarai, S ; Bhutta, ZA ; Bijani, A ; Bikbov, B ; Biondi, A ; Birhanu, TTM ; Biswas, RK ; Bohlouli, S ; Bolla, SR ; Boloor, A ; Borschmann, R ; Boufous, S ; Bragazzi, NL ; Braithwaite, D ; Breitborde, NJK ; Brenner, H ; Britton, GB ; Burns, RA ; Nagaraja, SB ; Butt, ZA ; dos Santos, FLC ; Camera, LA ; Campos-Nonato, IR ; Campuzano Rincon, JC ; Cardenas, R ; Carreras, G ; Carrero, JJ ; Carvalho, F ; Castaldelli-Maia, JM ; Castaneda-Orjuela, CA ; Castelpietra, G ; Catala-Lopez, F ; Cerin, E ; Chandan, JS ; Chang, H-Y ; Chang, J-C ; Charan, J ; Chattu, VK ; Chaturvedi, S ; Choi, J-YJ ; Chowdhury, MAK ; Christopher, DJ ; Dinh-Toi, C ; Chung, MT ; Chung, S-C ; Cicuttini, FM ; Constantin, TV ; Costa, VM ; Dahlawi, SMA ; Dai, H ; Dai, X ; Damiani, G ; Dandona, L ; Dandona, R ; Daneshpajouhnejad, P ; Darwesh, AM ; Alberto Davila-Cervantes, C ; Davletov, K ; De la Hoz, FP ; De Leo, D ; Dervenis, N ; Desai, R ; Desalew, A ; Deuba, K ; Dharmaratne, SD ; Dhungana, GP ; Dianatinasab, M ; da Silva, DD ; Diaz, D ; Didarloo, A ; Djalalinia, S ; Dorostkar, F ; Doshi, CP ; Doshmangir, L ; Doyle, KE ; Duraes, AR ; Kalan, ME ; Ebtehaj, S ; Edvardsson, D ; El Tantawi, M ; Elgendy, IY ; El-Jaafary, SI ; Elsharkawy, A ; Eshrati, B ; Eskandarieh, S ; Esmaeilnejad, S ; Esmaeilzadeh, F ; Esteghamati, S ; Faro, A ; Farzadfar, F ; Fattahi, N ; Feigin, VL ; Ferede, TY ; Fereshtehnejad, S-M ; Fernandes, E ; Ferrara, P ; Filip, I ; Fischer, F ; Fisher, JL ; Foigt, NA ; Folayan, MO ; Fomenkov, AA ; Foroutan, M ; Fukumoto, T ; Gad, MM ; Gaidhane, AM ; Gallus, S ; Gebre, T ; Gebremedhin, KB ; Gebremeskel, GG ; Gebremeskel, L ; Gebreslassie, AA ; Gesesew, HA ; Ghadiri, K ; Ghafourifard, M ; Ghamari, F ; Ghashghaee, A ; Gilani, SA ; Gnedovskaya, EV ; Godinho, MA ; Golechha, M ; Goli, S ; Gona, PN ; Gopalani, SV ; Gorini, G ; Grivna, M ; Gubari, MIM ; Gugnani, HC ; Guimaraes, RA ; Guo, Y ; Gupta, R ; Haagsma, JA ; Hafezi-Nejad, N ; Haile, TG ; Haj-Mirzaian, A ; Haj-Mirzaian, A ; Hall, BJ ; Hamadeh, RR ; Abdullah, KH ; Hamidi, S ; Handiso, DW ; Hanif, A ; Hankey, GJ ; Haririan, H ; Maria Haro, J ; Hasaballah, AI ; Hashi, A ; Hassan, A ; Hassanipour, S ; Hassankhani, H ; Hayat, K ; Heidari-Soureshjani, R ; Herteliu, C ; Heydarpour, F ; Ho, HC ; Hole, MK ; Holla, R ; Hoogar, P ; Hosseini, M ; Hosseinzadeh, M ; Hostiuc, M ; Hostiuc, S ; Househ, M ; Hsairi, M ; Huda, TM ; Humayun, A ; Hussain, R ; Hwang, B-F ; Iavicoli, I ; Ibitoye, SE ; Ilesanmi, OS ; Ilic, IM ; Ilic, MD ; Inbaraj, LR ; Intarut, N ; Iqbal, U ; Irvani, SSN ; Islam, MM ; Islam, SMS ; Iso, H ; Ivers, RQ ; Jahani, MA ; Jakovljevic, M ; Jalali, A ; Janodia, MD ; Javaheri, T ; Jeemon, P ; Jenabi, E ; Jha, RP ; Jha, V ; Ji, JS ; Jonas, JB ; Jones, KM ; Joukar, F ; Jozwiak, JJ ; Juliusson, PB ; Jurisson, M ; Kabir, A ; Kabir, Z ; Kalankesh, LR ; Kalhor, R ; Kamyari, N ; Kanchan, T ; Karch, A ; Karimi, SE ; Kaur, S ; Kayode, GA ; Keiyoro, PN ; Khalid, N ; Khammarnia, M ; Khan, M ; Khan, MN ; Khatab, K ; Khater, MM ; Khatib, MN ; Khayamzadeh, M ; Khazaie, H ; Khoja, AT ; Kieling, C ; Kim, Y-E ; Kim, YJ ; Kimokoti, RW ; Kisa, A ; Kisa, S ; Kivimaki, M ; Koolivand, A ; Kosen, S ; Koyanagi, A ; Krishan, K ; Kugbey, N ; Kumar, GA ; Kumar, M ; Kumar, N ; Kurmi, OP ; Kusuma, D ; La Vecchia, C ; Lacey, B ; Lal, DK ; Lalloo, R ; Lan, Q ; Landires, I ; Lansingh, VC ; Larsson, AO ; Lasrado, S ; Lassi, ZS ; Lauriola, P ; Lee, PH ; Lee, SWH ; Leigh, J ; Leonardi, M ; Leung, J ; Levi, M ; Lewycka, S ; Li, B ; Li, M-C ; Li, S ; Lim, L-L ; Lim, SS ; Liu, X ; Lorkowski, S ; Lotufo, PA ; Lunevicius, R ; Maddison, R ; Mahasha, PW ; Mahdavi, MM ; Mahmoudi, M ; Majeed, A ; Maleki, A ; Malekzadeh, R ; Malta, DC ; Mamun, AA ; Mansouri, B ; Mansournia, MA ; Martinez, G ; Martinez-Raga, J ; Martins-Melo, FR ; Mason-Jones, AJ ; Masoumi, SZ ; Mathur, MR ; Maulik, PK ; McGrath, JJ ; Mehndiratta, MM ; Mehri, F ; Memiah, PTN ; Mendoza, W ; Menezes, RG ; Mengesha, EW ; Meretoja, A ; Meretoja, TJ ; Mestrovic, T ; Miazgowski, B ; Miazgowski, T ; Michalek, IM ; Miller, TR ; Mini, GK ; Mirica, A ; Mirrakhimov, EM ; Mirzaei, H ; Mirzaei, M ; Moazen, B ; Mohammad, DK ; Mohammadi, S ; Mohammadian-Hafshejani, A ; Mohammadifard, N ; Mohammadpourhodki, R ; Mohammed, S ; Monasta, L ; Moradi, G ; Moradi-Lakeh, M ; Moradzadeh, R ; Moraga, P ; Morrison, SD ; Mosapour, A ; Khaneghah, AM ; Mueller, UO ; Muriithi, MK ; Murray, CJL ; Muthupandian, S ; Naderi, M ; Nagarajan, AJ ; Naghavi, M ; Naimzada, MD ; Nangia, V ; Nayak, VC ; Nazari, J ; Ndejjo, R ; Negoi, I ; Negoi, RI ; Netsere, HB ; Nguefack-Tsague, G ; Diep, NN ; Huong, LTN ; Nie, J ; Ningrum, DNA ; Nnaji, CA ; Nomura, S ; Noubiap, JJ ; Nowak, C ; Nunez-Samudio, V ; Ogbo, FA ; Oghenetega, OB ; Oh, I-H ; Oladnabi, M ; Olagunju, AT ; Olusanya, BO ; Olusanya, JO ; Bali, AO ; Omer, MO ; Onwujekwe, OE ; Ortiz, A ; Otoiu, A ; Otstavnov, N ; Otstavnov, SS ; Overland, S ; Owolabi, MO ; Mahesh, PA ; Padubidri, JR ; Pakshir, K ; Palladino, R ; Pana, A ; Panda-Jonas, S ; Pandey, A ; Able Panelo, CI ; Park, E-K ; Patten, SB ; Peden, AE ; Filipino Pepito, VC ; Peprah, EK ; Pereira, J ; Pesudovs, K ; Hai, QP ; Phillips, MR ; Piradov, MA ; Pirsaheb, M ; Postma, MJ ; Pottoo, FH ; Pourjafar, H ; Pourshams, A ; Prada, SI ; Pupillo, E ; Syed, ZQ ; Rabiee, MH ; Rabiee, N ; Radfar, A ; Rafiee, A ; Raggi, A ; Rahim, F ; Rahimi-Movaghar, V ; Rahman, MHU ; Rahman, MA ; Ramezanzadeh, K ; Ranabhat, CL ; Rao, SJ ; Rashedi, V ; Rastogi, P ; Rathi, P ; Rawaf, DL ; Rawaf, S ; Rawal, L ; Rawassizadeh, R ; Renzaho, AMN ; Rezaei, N ; Rezaei, N ; Rezai, MS ; Riahi, SM ; Rickard, J ; Roever, L ; Ronfani, L ; Roth, GA ; Rubagotti, E ; Rumisha, SF ; Rwegerera, GM ; Sabour, S ; Sachdev, PS ; Saddik, B ; Sadeghi, E ; Moghaddam, SS ; Sagar, R ; Sahebkar, A ; Sahraian, MA ; Sajadi, SM ; Salem, MR ; Salimzadeh, H ; Samy, AM ; Sanabria, J ; Santric-Milicevic, MM ; Saraswathy, SYI ; Sarrafzadegan, N ; Sarveazad, A ; Sathish, T ; Sattin, D ; Saxena, D ; Saxena, S ; Schiavolin, S ; Schwebel, DC ; Schwendicke, F ; Senthilkumaran, S ; Sepanlou, SG ; Sha, F ; Shafaat, O ; Shahabi, S ; Shaheen, AA ; Shaikh, MA ; Shakiba, S ; Shamsi, MB ; Shannawaz, M ; Sharafi, K ; Sheikh, A ; Sheikhbahaei, S ; Shetty, BSK ; Shi, P ; Shigematsu, M ; Shin, JI ; Shiri, R ; Shuval, K ; Siabani, S ; Sigfusdottir, ID ; Sigurvinsdottir, R ; Santos Silva, DA ; Silva, JP ; Simonetti, B ; Singh, JA ; Singh, V ; Sinke, AH ; Skryabin, VY ; Slater, H ; Smith, EUR ; Sobhiyeh, MR ; Sobngwi, E ; Soheili, A ; Somefun, OD ; Sorrie, MB ; Soyiri, IN ; Sreeramareddy, CT ; Stein, DJ ; Stokes, MA ; Sudaryanto, A ; Sultan, I ; Tabares-Seisdedos, R ; Tabuchi, T ; Tadakamadla, SK ; Taherkhani, A ; Tamiru, AT ; Tareque, MI ; Thankappan, KR ; Thapar, R ; Thomas, N ; Titova, MV ; Tonelli, M ; Tovani-Palone, MR ; Bach, XT ; Travillian, RS ; Tsai, AC ; Tsatsakis, A ; Car, LT ; Uddin, R ; Unim, B ; Unnikrishnan, B ; Upadhyay, E ; Vacante, M ; Tahbaz, SV ; Valdez, PR ; Varughese, S ; Vasankari, TJ ; Venketasubramanian, N ; Villeneuve, PJ ; Violante, FS ; Vlassov, V ; Vos, T ; Giang, TV ; Waheed, Y ; Wamai, RG ; Wang, Y ; Wang, Y ; Wang, Y-P ; Westerman, R ; Wickramasinghe, ND ; Wu, A-M ; Wu, C ; Jabbari, SHY ; Yamagishi, K ; Yano, Y ; Yaya, S ; Yazdi-Feyzabadi, V ; Yeshitila, YG ; Yip, P ; Yonemoto, N ; Yoon, S-J ; Younis, MZ ; Yousefinezhadi, T ; Yu, C ; Yu, Y ; Yuce, D ; Zaidi, SS ; Bin Zaman, S ; Zamani, M ; Zamanian, M ; Zarafshan, H ; Zarei, A ; Zastrozhin, MS ; Zhang, Y ; Zhang, Z-J ; Zhao, X-JG ; Zhu, C ; Patton, GC ; Viner, RM (ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2021-10-30)
    BACKGROUND: Documentation of patterns and long-term trends in mortality in young people, which reflect huge changes in demographic and social determinants of adolescent health, enables identification of global investment priorities for this age group. We aimed to analyse data on the number of deaths, years of life lost, and mortality rates by sex and age group in people aged 10-24 years in 204 countries and territories from 1950 to 2019 by use of estimates from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study (GBD) 2019. METHODS: We report trends in estimated total numbers of deaths and mortality rate per 100 000 population in young people aged 10-24 years by age group (10-14 years, 15-19 years, and 20-24 years) and sex in 204 countries and territories between 1950 and 2019 for all causes, and between 1980 and 2019 by cause of death. We analyse variation in outcomes by region, age group, and sex, and compare annual rate of change in mortality in young people aged 10-24 years with that in children aged 0-9 years from 1990 to 2019. We then analyse the association between mortality in people aged 10-24 years and socioeconomic development using the GBD Socio-demographic Index (SDI), a composite measure based on average national educational attainment in people older than 15 years, total fertility rate in people younger than 25 years, and income per capita. We assess the association between SDI and all-cause mortality in 2019, and analyse the ratio of observed to expected mortality by SDI using the most recent available data release (2017). FINDINGS: In 2019 there were 1·49 million deaths (95% uncertainty interval 1·39-1·59) worldwide in people aged 10-24 years, of which 61% occurred in males. 32·7% of all adolescent deaths were due to transport injuries, unintentional injuries, or interpersonal violence and conflict; 32·1% were due to communicable, nutritional, or maternal causes; 27·0% were due to non-communicable diseases; and 8·2% were due to self-harm. Since 1950, deaths in this age group decreased by 30·0% in females and 15·3% in males, and sex-based differences in mortality rate have widened in most regions of the world. Geographical variation has also increased, particularly in people aged 10-14 years. Since 1980, communicable and maternal causes of death have decreased sharply as a proportion of total deaths in most GBD super-regions, but remain some of the most common causes in sub-Saharan Africa and south Asia, where more than half of all adolescent deaths occur. Annual percentage decrease in all-cause mortality rate since 1990 in adolescents aged 15-19 years was 1·3% in males and 1·6% in females, almost half that of males aged 1-4 years (2·4%), and around a third less than in females aged 1-4 years (2·5%). The proportion of global deaths in people aged 0-24 years that occurred in people aged 10-24 years more than doubled between 1950 and 2019, from 9·5% to 21·6%. INTERPRETATION: Variation in adolescent mortality between countries and by sex is widening, driven by poor progress in reducing deaths in males and older adolescents. Improving global adolescent mortality will require action to address the specific vulnerabilities of this age group, which are being overlooked. Furthermore, indirect effects of the COVID-19 pandemic are likely to jeopardise efforts to improve health outcomes including mortality in young people aged 10-24 years. There is an urgent need to respond to the changing global burden of adolescent mortality, address inequities where they occur, and improve the availability and quality of primary mortality data in this age group. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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    A longitudinal analysis of puberty-related cortical development
    Vijayakumar, N ; Youssef, GJ ; Allen, NB ; Anderson, V ; Efron, D ; Hazell, P ; Mundy, L ; Nicholson, JM ; Patton, G ; Seal, ML ; Simmons, JG ; Whittle, S ; Silk, T (ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE, 2021-01-04)
    The brain undergoes extensive structural changes during adolescence, concurrent to puberty-related physical and hormonal changes. While animal research suggests these biological processes are related to one another, our knowledge of brain development in humans is largely based on age-related processes. Thus, the current study characterized puberty-related changes in human brain structure, by combining data from two longitudinal neuroimaging cohorts. Beyond normative changes in cortical thickness, we examined whether individual differences in the rate of pubertal maturation (or "pubertal tempo") was associated with variations in cortical trajectories. Participants (N = 192; scans = 366) completed up to three waves of MRI assessments between 8.5 and 14.5 years of age, as well as questionnaire assessments of pubertal stage at each wave. Generalized additive mixture models were used to characterize trajectories of cortical development. Results revealed widespread linear puberty-related changes across much of the cortex. Many of these changes, particularly within the frontal and parietal cortices, were independent of age-related development. Males exhibiting faster pubertal tempo demonstrated greater thinning in the precuneus and frontal cortices than same-aged and -sex peers. Findings suggest that the unique influence of puberty on cortical development may be more extensive than previously identified, and also emphasize important individual differences in the coupling of these developmental processes.
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    The effects of puberty and its hormones on subcortical brain development.
    Vijayakumar, N ; Youssef, G ; Allen, NB ; Anderson, V ; Efron, D ; Mundy, L ; Patton, G ; Simmons, JG ; Silk, T ; Whittle, S (Elsevier BV, 2021-08)
    Puberty triggers a period of structural "re-organization" in the brain, when rising hormone levels act via receptors to influence morphology. However, our understanding of these neuroendocrine processes in humans remains poor. As such, the current longitudinal study characterized development of the human subcortex during puberty, including changes in relation to pubertal (Tanner) stage and hormone (testosterone, dehydroepiandrosterone [DHEA]) levels. Beyond normative group-level patterns of development, we also examined whether individual differences in the rate of pubertal maturation (i.e., "pubertal/hormonal tempo") were associated with variations in subcortical trajectories. Participants (N = 192; scans = 366) completed up to three waves of MRI assessments between 8.5 and 14.5 years of age. Parents completed questionnaire assessments of pubertal stage at each wave, and adolescents provided hormone samples on a subset of waves. Generalized additive mixture models were used to characterize trajectories of subcortical development. Results showed that development of most subcortical structures was related to pubertal stage, although findings were mostly non-significant when controlling for age. Testosterone and DHEA levels were related to development of the amygdala, hippocampus and pallidum in both sexes, and findings in the amygdala remained significant when controlling for age. Additionally, we found that variability in hormonal (specifically testosterone) tempo was related to right hippocampal development in males, with an accelerated pattern of hippocampal development in those with greater increases in testosterone levels. Overall, our findings suggest prominent hormonal influences on the amygdala and hippocampus, consistent with the prevalence of androgen and estrogen receptors in these regions. We speculate that these findings are most likely reflective of the important role of adrenarcheal processes on adolescent brain development.
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    Design of a brief psychological intervention for youth who self-harm: a formative study in India
    Aggarwal, S ; Patton, G ; Berk, M ; Patel, V (BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2021-02-01)
    BACKGROUND: There is an urgent need for context-specific research leading to development of scalable interventions to address self-harm and suicide in low and middle-income countries (LMICs). OBJECTIVE: The current study was conducted to determine the contents of a psychological intervention to reduce recurrence of self-harm and improve functioning in youth who self-harm in India and finalise its delivery mechanisms. METHODS: A systematic, sequential approach was used to integrate available scientific evidence, expert service providers' knowledge and experience, and service users' lived experiences in the codesigning and development of a psychological intervention. The steps included: identifying prioritised outcomes for youth who self-harm as well as a selection of feasible and acceptable elements from self-harm interventions that have been trialled in LMICs, intervention development workshops with mental health professionals and youth to finalise elements, a review of relevant treatment manuals to decide on the treatment framework, and finalising the treatment structure and schedule in the second round of intervention development workshops. FINDINGS: We developed ATMAN treatment with three key elements; problem solving, emotion regulation and social network strengthening skills. The delivery schedule emphasises on the engagement elements, and allows for involvement of other stakeholders such as family members when acceptable to the clients. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: ATMAN treatment could prove to be especially effective in reducing self-harm recurrence in youth in India due to its brief schedule, elements that have been selected in collaboration with the service users and its potential to be scaled up for delivery by non-specialist treatment providers.
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    Explanatory style in youth self-harm: an Indian qualitative study to inform intervention design
    Aggarwal, S ; Patton, G ; Bahl, D ; Shah, N ; Berk, M ; Patel, V (BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2020-08-01)
    BACKGROUND: There are very few studies that have examined the effectiveness of psychological interventions (PIs) that have been developed and tested in high-income countries to reduce self-harm in low and middle-income countries. OBJECTIVE: To evaluate the perspectives and explanatory styles of youth with self-harm and their caregivers to inform the design of an evidence based PI in a non-Western cultural setting. An additional objective was to suggest ways of integrating local practices and traditions to enhance its acceptability. METHODS: We conducted 15 in-depth qualitative interviews with youth with self-harm and four interviews with the caregivers in the psychiatry department of a tertiary hospital located in Mumbai, India. Data were analysed using phenomenological thematic analysis. FINDINGS: Five themes were uncovered: (i) contextual factors related to self-harm including interpersonal factors, intrapersonal factors and socio-cultural factors; (ii) formulation and current feelings about the attempt (iii) family members and friends as the perceived supports and deterrents for future self-harm attempts; (iv) treatment related experiences with counselling, in-patient and outpatient treatment and barriers to treatment; and (v) coping strategies. Recommendations for key areas of adaptation include therapist adaptation, content adaptation to accommodate for cultural considerations and broader social context. Gender based socio-cultural norms, beliefs and stigma attached to self-harm need to be specifically addressed in South Asian setting. Interpersonal conflicts are the most common triggers. CONCLUSION AND CLINICAL IMPLICATIONS: To our knowledge this is the first study in the South Asian context evaluating explanatory styles of youth with self-harm and their caregivers to inform the design of an intervention to ensure its cultural congruence. Cultural adaptation of an evidence based PI results in competent delivery and ensures best results in diverse ethno-cultural populations.
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    Measuring progress and projecting attainment on the basis of past trends of the health-related Sustainable Development Goals in 188 countries: an analysis from the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    Fullman, N ; Barber, RM ; Abajobir, AA ; Abate, KH ; Abbafati, C ; Abbas, KM ; Abd-Allah, F ; Abdulle, AM ; Abera, SF ; Aboyans, V ; Abu-Raddad, LJ ; Abu-Rmeileh, NME ; Adedeji, IA ; Adetokunboh, O ; Afshin, A ; Agrawal, A ; Agrawal, S ; Kiadaliri, AA ; Ahmadieh, H ; Ahmed, MB ; Aichour, AN ; Aichour, I ; Aichour, MTE ; Aiyar, S ; Akinyemi, RO ; Akseer, N ; Al-Aly, Z ; Alam, K ; Alam, N ; Alasfoor, D ; Alene, KA ; Alizadeh-Navaei, R ; Alkerwi, A ; Alla, F ; Allebeck, P ; Allen, C ; Al-Raddadi, R ; Alsharif, U ; Altirkawi, KA ; Alvis-Guzman, N ; Amare, AT ; Amini, E ; Ammar, W ; Antonio, CAT ; Ansari, H ; Anwari, P ; Arora, M ; Artaman, A ; Aryal, KK ; Asayesh, H ; Asgedom, SW ; Assadi, R ; Atey, TM ; Atre, SR ; Avila-Burgos, L ; Avokpaho, EFGA ; Awasthi, A ; Azzopardi, P ; Bacha, U ; Badawi, A ; Balakrishnan, K ; Bannick, MS ; Barac, A ; Barker-Collo, SL ; Barnighausen, T ; Barrero, LH ; Basu, S ; Battle, KE ; Baune, BT ; Beardsley, J ; Bedi, N ; Bejot, Y ; Bell, ML ; Bennett, DA ; Bennett, JR ; Bensenor, IM ; Berhane, A ; Berhe, DF ; Bernabe, E ; Betsu, BD ; Beuran, M ; Beyene, AS ; Bhansali, A ; Bhatt, S ; Bhutta, ZA ; Bikbov, B ; Bilal, AI ; Birungi, C ; Biryukov, S ; Bizuayehu, HM ; Blosser, CD ; Boneya, DJ ; Bose, D ; Bou-Orm, IR ; Brauer, M ; Breitborde, NJK ; Brugha, TS ; Bulto, LNB ; Butt, ZA ; Cahuana-Hurtado, L ; Cameron, E ; Cesar Campuzano, J ; Cardenas, R ; Carrero, JJ ; Carter, A ; Casey, DC ; Castaneda-Orjuela, CA ; Castillo Rivas, J ; Estanislao Castro, R ; Catala-Lopez, F ; Cercy, K ; Chang, H-Y ; Chang, J-C ; Charlson, FJ ; Chew, A ; Chisumpa, VH ; Chitheer, AA ; Christensen, H ; Christopher, DJ ; Cirillo, M ; Cooper, C ; Criqui, MH ; Cromwell, EA ; Crump, JA ; Dandona, L ; Dandona, R ; Dargan, PI ; das Neves, J ; Davitoiu, DV ; de Courten, B ; De Steur, H ; Degenhardt, L ; Deiparine, S ; Deribe, K ; deveber, GA ; Ding, EL ; Djalalinia, S ; Huyen, PD ; Dokova, K ; Doku, DT ; Dorsey, ER ; Driscoll, TR ; Dubey, M ; Duncan, BB ; Ebel, BE ; Ebrahimi, H ; El-Khatib, ZZ ; Enayati, A ; Endries, AY ; Ermakov, SP ; Erskine, HE ; Eshrati, B ; Eskandarieh, S ; Esteghamati, A ; Estep, K ; Faraon, EJA ; E Sa Farinha, CS ; Faro, A ; Farzadfar, F ; Fazeli, MS ; Feigin, VL ; Feigl, AB ; Fereshtehnejad, S-M ; Fernandes, JC ; Ferrari, AJ ; Feyissa, TR ; Filip, I ; Fischer, F ; Fitzmaurice, C ; Flaxman, AD ; Foigt, N ; Foreman, KJ ; Frank, T ; Franklin, RC ; Friedman, J ; Frostad, JJ ; Furst, T ; Furtado, JM ; Gakidou, E ; Garcia-Basteiro, AL ; Gebrehiwot, TT ; Geleijnse, JM ; Geleto, A ; Gemechu, BL ; Gething, PW ; Gibney, KB ; Gill, PS ; Gillum, RF ; Giref, AZ ; Gishu, MD ; Giussani, G ; Glenn, SD ; Godwin, WW ; Goldberg, EM ; Gona, PN ; Goodridge, A ; Gopalani, SV ; Goryakin, Y ; Griswold, M ; Gugnani, HC ; Gupta, R ; Gupta, T ; Gupta, V ; Hafezi-Nejad, N ; Bidgoli, HH ; Hailu, GB ; Hamadeh, RR ; Hammami, M ; Hankey, GJ ; Harb, HL ; Hareri, HA ; Hassanvand, MS ; Havmoeller, R ; Hawley, C ; Hay, SI ; He, J ; Hendrie, D ; Henry, NJ ; Beatriz Heredia-Pi, I ; Hoek, HW ; Holmberg, M ; Horita, N ; Hosgood, HD ; Hostiuc, S ; Hoy, DG ; Hsairi, M ; Htet, AS ; Huang, H ; Huang, JJ ; Huynh, C ; Iburg, KM ; Ikeda, C ; Inoue, M ; Irvine, CMS ; Jacobsen, KH ; Jahanmehr, N ; Jakovljevic, MB ; Jauregui, A ; Javanbakht, M ; Jeemon, P ; Jha, V ; John, D ; Johnson, CO ; Johnson, SC ; Jonas, JB ; Jurisson, M ; Kabir, Z ; Kadel, R ; Kahsay, A ; Kamal, R ; Karch, A ; Karema, CK ; Kasaeian, A ; Kasaeian, A ; Kassebaum, NJ ; Kastor, A ; Katikireddi, SV ; Kawakami, N ; Keiyoro, PN ; Kelbore, SG ; Kemmer, L ; Kengne, AP ; Kesavachandran, CN ; Khader, YS ; Khalil, IA ; Khan, EA ; Khang, Y-H ; Khosravi, A ; Khubchandani, J ; Kieling, C ; Kim, D ; Kim, JY ; Kim, YJ ; Kimokoti, RW ; Kinfu, Y ; Kisa, A ; Kissimova-Skarbek, KA ; Kivimaki, M ; Kokubo, Y ; Kopec, JA ; Kosen, S ; Koul, PA ; Koyanagi, A ; Kravchenko, M ; Krohn, KJ ; Defo, BK ; Bicer, BK ; Kulikoff, XR ; Kumar, GA ; Kutz, MJ ; Kyu, HH ; Lal, DK ; Lalloo, R ; Lansingh, VC ; Larsson, A ; Lazarus, JV ; Lee, PH ; Leigh, J ; Leung, J ; Leung, R ; Levi, M ; Li, Y ; Liben, ML ; Linn, S ; Liu, PY ; Liu, S ; Lodha, R ; Looker, KJ ; Lopez, AD ; Lorkowski, S ; Lotufo, PA ; Lozano, R ; Lucas, TCD ; Mackay, MT ; Maddison, ER ; Abd el Razek, HM ; Abd el Razek, MM ; Majdan, M ; Majdzadeh, R ; Majeed, A ; Malekzadeh, R ; Malhotra, R ; Malta, DC ; Mamun, AA ; Manguerra, H ; Mantovani, LG ; Manyazewal, T ; Mapoma, CC ; Marks, GB ; Martin, RV ; Martins-Melo, FR ; Martopullo, I ; Mathur, MR ; Mazidi, M ; McAlinden, C ; McGaughey, M ; McGrath, JJ ; Mckee, M ; Mehata, S ; Mehndiratta, MM ; Meier, T ; Meles, KG ; Memish, ZA ; Mendoza, W ; Mengesha, MM ; Mengistie, MA ; Mensah, GA ; Mensink, GBM ; Mereta, ST ; Meretoja, A ; Meretoja, TJ ; Mezgebe, HB ; Micha, R ; Millear, A ; Miller, TR ; Minnig, S ; Mirarefin, M ; Mirrakhimov, EM ; Misganaw, A ; Mishra, SR ; Mitchell, PB ; Mohammad, KA ; Mohammed, KE ; Mohammed, S ; Mohan, MBV ; Mokdad, AH ; Mollenkopf, SK ; Monasta, L ; Montanez Hernandez, JC ; Montico, M ; Moradi-Lakeh, M ; Moraga, P ; Morawska, L ; Morrison, SD ; Moses, MW ; Mountjoy-Venning, C ; Mueller, UO ; Muller, K ; Murthy, GVS ; Musa, KI ; Naghavi, M ; Naheed, A ; Naidoo, KS ; Nangia, V ; Natarajan, G ; Negoi, I ; Negoi, RI ; Cuong, TN ; Grant, N ; Minh, N ; Quyen, LN ; Trang, HN ; Nichols, E ; Ningrum, DNA ; Nomura, M ; Vuong, MN ; Norheim, OF ; Noubiap, JJN ; Obermeyer, CM ; Ogbo, FA ; Oh, I-H ; Oladimeji, O ; Olagunju, AT ; Olagunju, TO ; Olivares, PR ; Olsen, HE ; Olusanya, BO ; Olusanya, JO ; Ong, K ; Oren, E ; Ortiz, A ; Owolabi, MO ; Pa, M ; Pana, A ; Panda, BK ; Panda-Jonas, S ; Papachristou, C ; Park, E-K ; Patton, GC ; Paulson, K ; Pereira, DM ; Perico, DN ; Pesudovs, K ; Petzold, M ; Phillips, MR ; Pigott, DM ; Pillay, JD ; Pinho, C ; Piradov, MA ; Pishgar, F ; Poulton, RG ; Pourmalek, F ; Qorbani, M ; Radfar, A ; Rafay, A ; Rao, PC ; Rahimi-Movaghar, V ; Rahman, M ; Rahman, MHU ; Rahman, MA ; Rai, RK ; Rajsic, S ; Ram, U ; Ranabhat, CL ; Rawaf, S ; Reidy, P ; Reiner, RC ; Reinig, N ; Reitsma, MB ; Remuzzi, G ; Renzaho, AMN ; Resnikoff, S ; Rezaei, S ; Rios Blancas, MJ ; Roba, KT ; Rojas-Rueda, D ; Rokni, MB ; Roshandel, G ; Roth, GA ; Roy, A ; Rubagotti, E ; Sadat, N ; Safdarian, M ; Safi, S ; Safiri, S ; Sagar, R ; Salama, J ; Salomon, JA ; Samy, AM ; Ramon Sanabria, J ; Santomauro, D ; Santos, IS ; Santos, JV ; Milicevic, MMS ; Sartorius, B ; Satpathy, M ; Sawhney, M ; Saxena, S ; Saylan, MI ; Shirude, S ; Schmidt, MI ; Schneider, IJC ; Schneider, MT ; Schottker, B ; Schutte, AE ; Schwebel, DC ; Schwendicke, F ; Seedat, S ; Sepanlou, SG ; Servan-Mori, EE ; Shackelford, KA ; Shaheen, A ; Shahraz, S ; Shaikh, MA ; Shamsipour, M ; Shamsizadeh, M ; Islam, SMS ; Sharma, J ; Sharma, R ; She, J ; Shi, P ; Shibuya, K ; Shields, C ; Shiferaw, MS ; Shigematsu, M ; Shin, M-J ; Shiri, R ; Shirkoohi, R ; Shishani, K ; Shoman, H ; Shrime, MG ; Santos Silva, DA ; Silva, JP ; Alves Silveira, DG ; Singh, JA ; Singh, V ; Sinha, DN ; Skiadaresi, E ; Slepak, EL ; Sligar, A ; Smith, A ; Smith, DL ; Smith, M ; Sobaih, BHA ; Sobngwi, E ; Soljak, M ; Soneji, S ; Sorensen, RJD ; Sposato, LA ; Sreeramareddy, CT ; Srinivasan, V ; Stanaway, JD ; Stein, DJ ; Steinke, S ; Stokes, MA ; Strub, B ; Sufiyan, MB ; Abdulkader, RS ; Sunguya, BF ; Sur, PJ ; Swaminathan, S ; Sykes, BL ; Sylte, DO ; Szoeke, CEI ; Tabares-Seisdedos, R ; Tadakamadla, SK ; Tandon, N ; Tao, T ; Tarekegn, YL ; Tavakkoli, M ; Taveira, N ; Tegegne, TK ; Shifa, GT ; Terkawi, AS ; Tessema, GA ; Thakur, JS ; Thankappan, KR ; Thrift, AG ; Tiruye, TY ; Tobe-Gai, R ; Topor-Madry, R ; Torre, A ; Tortajada, M ; Tran, BX ; Troeger, C ; Truelsen, T ; Tsoi, D ; Tuem, KB ; Tuzcu, EM ; Tyrovolas, S ; Ukwaja, KN ; Uneke, CJ ; Updike, R ; Uthman, OA ; van Boven, JFM ; van Donkelaar, A ; Varughese, S ; Vasankari, T ; Venketasubramanian, N ; Vidavalur, R ; Violante, FS ; Vladimirov, SK ; Vlassov, VV ; Vollset, SE ; Vos, T ; Wadilo, F ; Wakayo, T ; Wallin, MT ; Wang, Y-P ; Weichenthal, S ; Weiderpass, E ; Weintraub, RG ; Weiss, DJ ; Werdecker, A ; Westerman, R ; Whiteford, HA ; Wijeratne, T ; Wiysonge, CS ; Woldeyes, BG ; Wolfe, CDA ; Woodbrook, R ; Xavier, D ; Xu, G ; Yadgir, S ; Yakob, B ; Yan, LL ; Yano, Y ; Yaseri, M ; Ye, P ; Yimam, HH ; Yip, P ; Yonemoto, N ; Yoon, S-J ; Yotebieng, M ; Younis, MZ ; Zaidi, Z ; Zaki, MES ; Zavala-Arciniega, L ; Zhang, X ; Zipkin, B ; Zodpey, S ; Lim, SS ; Murray, CJL (ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2017-09-16)
    BACKGROUND: The UN's Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) are grounded in the global ambition of "leaving no one behind". Understanding today's gains and gaps for the health-related SDGs is essential for decision makers as they aim to improve the health of populations. As part of the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016), we measured 37 of the 50 health-related SDG indicators over the period 1990-2016 for 188 countries, and then on the basis of these past trends, we projected indicators to 2030. METHODS: We used standardised GBD 2016 methods to measure 37 health-related indicators from 1990 to 2016, an increase of four indicators since GBD 2015. We substantially revised the universal health coverage (UHC) measure, which focuses on coverage of essential health services, to also represent personal health-care access and quality for several non-communicable diseases. We transformed each indicator on a scale of 0-100, with 0 as the 2·5th percentile estimated between 1990 and 2030, and 100 as the 97·5th percentile during that time. An index representing all 37 health-related SDG indicators was constructed by taking the geometric mean of scaled indicators by target. On the basis of past trends, we produced projections of indicator values, using a weighted average of the indicator and country-specific annualised rates of change from 1990 to 2016 with weights for each annual rate of change based on out-of-sample validity. 24 of the currently measured health-related SDG indicators have defined SDG targets, against which we assessed attainment. FINDINGS: Globally, the median health-related SDG index was 56·7 (IQR 31·9-66·8) in 2016 and country-level performance markedly varied, with Singapore (86·8, 95% uncertainty interval 84·6-88·9), Iceland (86·0, 84·1-87·6), and Sweden (85·6, 81·8-87·8) having the highest levels in 2016 and Afghanistan (10·9, 9·6-11·9), the Central African Republic (11·0, 8·8-13·8), and Somalia (11·3, 9·5-13·1) recording the lowest. Between 2000 and 2016, notable improvements in the UHC index were achieved by several countries, including Cambodia, Rwanda, Equatorial Guinea, Laos, Turkey, and China; however, a number of countries, such as Lesotho and the Central African Republic, but also high-income countries, such as the USA, showed minimal gains. Based on projections of past trends, the median number of SDG targets attained in 2030 was five (IQR 2-8) of the 24 defined targets currently measured. Globally, projected target attainment considerably varied by SDG indicator, ranging from more than 60% of countries projected to reach targets for under-5 mortality, neonatal mortality, maternal mortality ratio, and malaria, to less than 5% of countries projected to achieve targets linked to 11 indicator targets, including those for childhood overweight, tuberculosis, and road injury mortality. For several of the health-related SDGs, meeting defined targets hinges upon substantially faster progress than what most countries have achieved in the past. INTERPRETATION: GBD 2016 provides an updated and expanded evidence base on where the world currently stands in terms of the health-related SDGs. Our improved measure of UHC offers a basis to monitor the expansion of health services necessary to meet the SDGs. Based on past rates of progress, many places are facing challenges in meeting defined health-related SDG targets, particularly among countries that are the worst off. In view of the early stages of SDG implementation, however, opportunity remains to take actions to accelerate progress, as shown by the catalytic effects of adopting the Millennium Development Goals after 2000. With the SDGs' broader, bolder development agenda, multisectoral commitments and investments are vital to make the health-related SDGs within reach of all populations. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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    Global, regional, and national disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) for 333 diseases and injuries and healthy life expectancy (HALE) for 195 countries and territories, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    Hay, SI ; Abajobir, AA ; Abate, KH ; Abbafati, C ; Abbas, KM ; Abd-Allah, F ; Abdulle, AM ; Abebo, TA ; Abera, SF ; Aboyans, V ; Abu-Raddad, LJ ; Ackerman, IN ; Adedeji, IA ; Adetokunboh, O ; Afshin, A ; Aggarwal, R ; Agrawal, S ; Agrawal, A ; Kiadaliri, AA ; Ahmed, MB ; Aichour, AN ; Aichour, I ; Aichour, MTE ; Aiyar, S ; Akinyemiju, TF ; Akseer, N ; Al Lami, FH ; Alahdab, F ; Al-Aly, Z ; Alam, K ; Alam, N ; Alam, T ; Alasfoor, D ; Alene, KA ; Ali, R ; Alizadeh-Navaei, R ; Alkaabi, JM ; Alkerwi, A ; Alla, F ; Allebeck, P ; Allen, C ; Al-Maskari, F ; AlMazroa, MA ; Al-Raddadi, R ; Alsharif, U ; Alsowaidi, S ; Althouse, BM ; Altirkawi, KA ; Alvis-Guzman, N ; Amare, AT ; Amini, E ; Ammar, W ; Ampem, YA ; Ansha, MG ; Antonio, CAT ; Anwari, P ; Arnlov, J ; Arora, M ; Al, A ; Aryal, KK ; Asgedom, SW ; Atey, TM ; Atnafu, NT ; Avila-Burgos, L ; Avokpaho, EFGA ; Awasthi, A ; Awasthi, S ; Quintanilla, BPA ; Azarpazhooh, MR ; Azzopardi, P ; Babalola, TK ; Bacha, U ; Badawi, A ; Balakrishnan, K ; Bannick, MS ; Barac, A ; Barker-Collo, SL ; Barnighausen, T ; Barquera, S ; Barrero, LH ; Basu, S ; Battista, R ; Battle, KE ; Baune, BT ; Bazargan-Hejazi, S ; Beardsley, J ; Bedi, N ; Bejot, Y ; Bekele, BB ; Bell, ML ; Bennett, DA ; Bennett, JR ; Bensenor, IM ; Benson, J ; Berhane, A ; Berhe, DF ; Bernabe, E ; Betsu, BD ; Beuran, M ; Beyene, AS ; Bhansali, A ; Bhatt, S ; Bhutta, ZA ; Biadgilign, S ; Bienhoff, K ; Bikbov, B ; Birungi, C ; Biryukov, S ; Bisanzio, D ; Bizuayehu, HM ; Blyth, FM ; Boneya, DJ ; Bose, D ; Bou-Orm, IR ; Bourne, RRA ; Brainin, M ; Brayne, CEG ; Brazinova, A ; Breitborde, NJK ; Briant, PS ; Britton, G ; Brugha, TS ; Buchbinder, R ; Bulto, LNB ; Bumgarner, B ; Butt, ZA ; Cahuana-Hurtado, L ; Cameron, E ; Ricardo Campos-Nonato, I ; Carabin, H ; Cardenas, R ; Carpenter, DO ; Carrero, JJ ; Carter, A ; Carvalho, F ; Casey, D ; Castaneda-Orjuela, CA ; Rivas, JC ; Castle, CD ; Catala-Lopez, F ; Chang, J-C ; Charlson, FJ ; Chaturvedi, P ; Chen, H ; Chibalabala, M ; Chibueze, CE ; Chisumpa, VH ; Chitheer, AA ; Chowdhury, R ; Christopher, DJ ; Ciobanu, LG ; Cirillo, M ; Colombara, D ; Cooper, LT ; Cooper, C ; Cortesi, PA ; Cortinovis, M ; Criqui, MH ; Cromwell, EA ; Cross, M ; Crump, JA ; Dadi, AF ; Dalal, K ; Damasceno, A ; Dandona, L ; Dandona, R ; das Neves, J ; Davitoiu, DV ; Davletov, K ; de Courten, B ; de Leo, D ; De Steur, H ; Degenhardt, L ; Deiparine, S ; Dellavalle, RP ; Deribe, K ; Deribew, A ; Des Jarlais, DC ; Dey, S ; Dharmaratne, SD ; Dhillon, PK ; Dicker, D ; Djalalinia, S ; Huyen, PD ; Dokova, K ; Doku, DT ; Dorsey, ER ; Bender dos Santos, KP ; Driscoll, TR ; Dubey, M ; Duncan, BB ; Ebel, BE ; Echko, M ; El-Khatib, ZZ ; Enayati, A ; Endries, AY ; Ermakov, SP ; Erskine, HE ; Eshetie, S ; Eshrati, B ; Esteghamati, A ; Estep, K ; Fanuel, FBB ; Farag, T ; Sofia, C ; Farinha, S ; Faro, A ; Farzadfar, F ; Fazeli, MS ; Feigin, VL ; Feigl, AB ; Fereshtehnejad, S-M ; Fernandes, JC ; Ferrari, AJ ; Feyissa, TR ; Filip, I ; Fischer, F ; Fitzmaurice, C ; Flaxman, AD ; Foigt, N ; Foreman, KJ ; Franklin, RC ; Frostad, JJ ; Fullman, N ; Furst, T ; Furtado, JM ; Futran, ND ; Gakidou, E ; Garcia-Basteiro, AL ; Gebre, T ; Gebregergs, GB ; Gebrehiwot, TT ; Geleijnse, JM ; Geleto, A ; Gemechu, BL ; Gesesew, HA ; Gething, PW ; Ghajar, A ; Gibney, KB ; Gillum, RF ; Ginawi, IAM ; Gishu, MD ; Giussani, G ; Godwin, WW ; Goel, K ; Goenka, S ; Goldberg, EM ; Gona, PN ; Goodridge, A ; Gopalani, SV ; Gosselin, RA ; Gotay, CC ; Goto, A ; Goulart, AC ; Graetz, N ; Gugnani, HC ; Gupta, R ; Gupta, PC ; Gupta, T ; Gupta, V ; Gupta, R ; Gutierrez, RA ; Hachinski, V ; Hafezi-Nejad, N ; Hailu, AD ; Hailu, GB ; Hamadeh, RR ; Hamidi, S ; Hammami, M ; Handal, AJ ; Hankey, GJ ; Hao, Y ; Harb, HL ; Hareri, HA ; Haro, JM ; Harun, KM ; Harvey, J ; Hassanvand, MS ; Havmoeller, R ; Hay, RJ ; Hedayati, MT ; Hendrie, D ; Henry, NJ ; Heredia-Pi, IB ; Heydarpour, P ; Hoek, HW ; Hoffman, HJ ; Horino, M ; Horita, N ; Hosgood, HD ; Hostiuc, S ; Hotez, PJ ; Hoy, DG ; Htet, AS ; Hu, G ; Huang, JJ ; 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Lallukka, T ; Lambert, N ; Lan, Q ; Lansingh, VC ; Larsson, A ; Leasher, JL ; Lee, PH ; Leigh, J ; Leshargie, CT ; Leung, J ; Leung, R ; Levi, M ; Li, Y ; Li, Y ; Liang, X ; Liben, ML ; Lim, SS ; Linn, S ; Liu, A ; Liu, PY ; Liu, S ; Liu, Y ; Lodha, R ; Logroscino, G ; Looker, KJ ; Lopez, AD ; Lorkowski, S ; Lotufo, PA ; Lozano, R ; Lucas, TCD ; Lunevicius, R ; Lyons, RA ; Macarayan, ERK ; Maddison, ER ; Abd el Razek, HM ; Magis-Rodriguez, C ; Mahdavi, M ; Majdan, M ; Majdzadeh, R ; Majeed, A ; Malekzadeh, R ; Malhotra, R ; Malta, DC ; Mamun, AA ; Manguerra, H ; Manhertz, T ; Mantovani, LG ; Mapoma, CC ; March, LM ; Marczak, LB ; Martinez-Raga, J ; Henrique, P ; Martins, V ; Martins-Melo, FR ; Martopullo, I ; Marz, W ; Mathur, MR ; Mazidi, M ; McAlinden, C ; McGaughey, M ; McGrath, JJ ; Mckee, M ; Mehata, S ; Meier, T ; Meles, KG ; Memiah, P ; Memish, ZA ; Mendoza, W ; Mengesha, MM ; Mengistie, MA ; Mengistu, DT ; Mensah, GA ; Meretoja, A ; Meretoja, TJ ; Mezgebe, HB ; Micha, R ; Millear, A ; Miller, TR ; Minnig, S ; Mirarefin, M ; Mirrakhimov, EM ; Misganaw, A ; Mishra, SR ; Mitchell, PB ; Mohammad, KA ; Mohammadi, A ; Mohammed, S ; Mohammed, KE ; Mohammed, MSK ; Mohan, MBV ; Mokdad, AH ; Mollenkopf, SK ; Monasta, L ; Montanez Hernandez, JC ; Montico, M ; Moradi-Lakeh, M ; Moraga, P ; Morawska, L ; Mori, R ; Morrison, SD ; Moses, M ; Mountjoy-Venning, C ; Mruts, KB ; Mueller, UO ; Muller, K ; Mudoch, ME ; Murthy, S ; Murthy, GVS ; Musa, KI ; Nachega, JB ; Nagel, G ; Naghavi, M ; Naheed, A ; Naidoo, KS ; Nangia, V ; Nasher, JT ; Natarajan, G ; Negasa, DE ; Negoi, I ; Negoi, RI ; Newton, CR ; Ngunjiri, JW ; Cuong, TN ; Quyen, LN ; Grant, N ; Trang, HN ; Minh, N ; Nichols, E ; Ningrum, DNA ; Vuong, MN ; Norheim, OF ; Norrving, B ; Noubiap, JJN ; Nyandwi, A ; Obermeyer, CM ; O'Donnell, MJ ; Ogbo, FA ; Oh, I-H ; Okoro, A ; Oladimeji, O ; Olagunju, AT ; Olagunju, TO ; Olsen, HE ; Olusanya, BO ; Olusanya, JO ; Ong, K ; Opio, JN ; Oren, E ; Ortiz, A ; Osborne, RH ; Osgood-Zimmerman, A ; Osman, M ; Ota, E ; Owolabi, MO ; Pa, M ; Pacella, RE ; Panda, BK ; Pandian, JD ; Papachristou, C ; Park, E-K ; Parry, CD ; Parsaeian, M ; Patil, ST ; Patten, SB ; Patton, GC ; Paudel, D ; Paulson, K ; Pearce, N ; Pereira, DM ; Perez, KM ; Perico, N ; Pesudovs, K ; Peterson, CB ; Petri, WA ; Petzold, M ; Phillips, MR ; Phipps, G ; Pigott, DM ; Pillay, JD ; Pinho, C ; Piradov, MA ; Plass, D ; Pletcher, MA ; Popova, S ; Poulton, RG ; Pourmalek, F ; Prabhakaran, D ; Prasad, N ; Purcell, C ; Purwar, M ; Qorbani, M ; Rabiee, RHS ; Radfar, A ; Rafay, A ; Rahimi, K ; Rahimi-Movaghar, A ; Rahimi-Movaghar, V ; Rahman, M ; Rahman, MA ; Rahman, MHU ; Rai, RK ; Rajsic, S ; Ram, U ; Ranabhat, CL ; Rangaswamy, T ; Rankin, Z ; Rao, PV ; Rao, PC ; Rawaf, S ; Ray, SE ; Reiner, RC ; Reinig, N ; Reitsma, M ; Remuzzi, G ; Renzaho, AMN ; Resnikoff, S ; Rezaei, S ; Ribeiro, AL ; Roba, HS ; Robinson, SR ; Rojas-Rueda, D ; Rokni, MB ; Ronfani, L ; Roshandel, G ; Roth, GA ; Rothenbacher, D ; Roy, A ; Rubagotti, E ; Ruhago, GM ; Saadat, S ; Safdarian, M ; Safiri, S ; Sagar, R ; Sahathevan, R ; Sahraian, MA ; Salama, J ; Saleh, MM ; Salomon, JA ; Salvi, SS ; Samy, AM ; Sanabria, JR ; Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M ; Santomauro, D ; Santos, JV ; Santos, IS ; Milicevic, MMS ; Sartorius, B ; Satpathy, M ; Sawhney, M ; Saxena, S ; Schelonka, K ; Schmidt, MI ; Schneider, IJC ; Ben, S ; Schutte, AE ; Schwebel, DC ; Schwendicke, F ; Seedat, S ; Sepanlou, SG ; Servan-Mori, EE ; Shaheen, A ; Shaikh, MA ; Shamsipour, M ; Islam, SMS ; Sharma, R ; Sharma, J ; She, J ; Shi, P ; Shibuya, K ; Shields, C ; Shiferaw, MS ; Shigematsu, M ; Shiri, R ; Shirkoohi, R ; Shirude, S ; Shishani, K ; Shoman, H ; Siabani, S ; Sibai, AM ; Sigfusdottir, ID ; Silberberg, DH ; Silva, JP ; Santos Silva, DA ; Alves Silveira, DG ; Singh, JA ; Singh, V ; Singh, OP ; Singh, NP ; Sinha, DN ; Skiadaresi, E ; Skirbekk, V ; Slepak, EL ; Smith, DL ; Smith, M ; Sobaih, BHA ; Sobngwi, E ; Soljak, M ; Sorensen, RJD ; Moraes Sousa, TC ; Sposato, LA ; Sufiyan, MB ; Abdulkader, RS ; Sunguya, BF ; Sur, PJ ; Swaminathan, S ; Sykes, BL ; Sylte, D ; Szoeke, CEI ; Tabares-Seisdedos, R ; Tadakamadla, SK ; Taffere, GR ; Takala, JS ; Tandon, N ; Tanne, D ; Tarekegn, YL ; Tavakkoli, M ; Taveira, N ; Taylor, HR ; Tegegne, TK ; Tehrani-Banihashemi, A ; Tekelab, T ; Shifa, GT ; Terkawi, AS ; Tesfaye, DJ ; Tesssema, B ; Thakur, JS ; Thamsuwan, O ; Theadom, AM ; Theis, AM ; Thomas, KE ; Thomas, N ; Thompson, R ; Thrift, AG ; Tobe-Gai, R ; Tobollik, M ; Tonelli, M ; Topor-Madry, R ; Tortajada, M ; Touvier, M ; Traebert, J ; Tran, BX ; Troeger, C ; Truelsen, T ; Tsoi, D ; Tuzcu, EM ; Tymeson, H ; Tyrovolas, S ; Ukwaja, KN ; Undurraga, EA ; Uneke, CJ ; Updike, R ; Uthman, OA ; Uzochukwu, BSC ; van Boven, JFM ; Varughese, S ; Vasankari, T ; Veerman, LJ ; Venkatesh, S ; Venketasubramanian, N ; Vidavalur, R ; Vijayakumar, L ; Violante, FS ; Vishnu, A ; Vladimirov, SK ; Vlassov, VV ; Vollset, SE ; Vos, T ; Wadilo, F ; Wakayo, T ; Wallin, MT ; Wang, Y-P ; Weichenthal, S ; Weiderpass, E ; Weintraub, RG ; Weiss, DJ ; Werdecker, A ; Westerman, R ; Whiteford, HA ; Wijeratne, T ; Williams, HC ; Wiysonge, CS ; Woldeyes, BG ; Wolfe, CDA ; Woodbrook, R ; Woolf, AD ; Workicho, A ; Xavier, D ; Xu, G ; Yadgir, S ; Yaghoubi, M ; Yakob, B ; Yan, LL ; Yano, Y ; Ye, P ; Yihdego, MG ; Yimam, HH ; Yip, P ; Yonemoto, N ; Yoon, S-J ; Yotebieng, M ; Younis, MZ ; Yu, C ; Zaidi, Z ; Zaki, MES ; Zegeye, EA ; Zenebe, ZM ; Zhang, X ; Zheng, Y ; Zhou, M ; Zipkin, B ; Zodpey, S ; Zoeckler, L ; Zuhlke, LJ ; Murray, CJL (ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2017-09-16)
    BACKGROUND: Measurement of changes in health across locations is useful to compare and contrast changing epidemiological patterns against health system performance and identify specific needs for resource allocation in research, policy development, and programme decision making. Using the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016, we drew from two widely used summary measures to monitor such changes in population health: disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs) and healthy life expectancy (HALE). We used these measures to track trends and benchmark progress compared with expected trends on the basis of the Socio-demographic Index (SDI). METHODS: We used results from the Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 for all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, and non-fatal disease burden to derive HALE and DALYs by sex for 195 countries and territories from 1990 to 2016. We calculated DALYs by summing years of life lost and years of life lived with disability for each location, age group, sex, and year. We estimated HALE using age-specific death rates and years of life lived with disability per capita. We explored how DALYs and HALE differed from expected trends when compared with the SDI: the geometric mean of income per person, educational attainment in the population older than age 15 years, and total fertility rate. FINDINGS: The highest globally observed HALE at birth for both women and men was in Singapore, at 75·2 years (95% uncertainty interval 71·9-78·6) for females and 72·0 years (68·8-75·1) for males. The lowest for females was in the Central African Republic (45·6 years [42·0-49·5]) and for males was in Lesotho (41·5 years [39·0-44·0]). From 1990 to 2016, global HALE increased by an average of 6·24 years (5·97-6·48) for both sexes combined. Global HALE increased by 6·04 years (5·74-6·27) for males and 6·49 years (6·08-6·77) for females, whereas HALE at age 65 years increased by 1·78 years (1·61-1·93) for males and 1·96 years (1·69-2·13) for females. Total global DALYs remained largely unchanged from 1990 to 2016 (-2·3% [-5·9 to 0·9]), with decreases in communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional (CMNN) disease DALYs offset by increased DALYs due to non-communicable diseases (NCDs). The exemplars, calculated as the five lowest ratios of observed to expected age-standardised DALY rates in 2016, were Nicaragua, Costa Rica, the Maldives, Peru, and Israel. The leading three causes of DALYs globally were ischaemic heart disease, cerebrovascular disease, and lower respiratory infections, comprising 16·1% of all DALYs. Total DALYs and age-standardised DALY rates due to most CMNN causes decreased from 1990 to 2016. Conversely, the total DALY burden rose for most NCDs; however, age-standardised DALY rates due to NCDs declined globally. INTERPRETATION: At a global level, DALYs and HALE continue to show improvements. At the same time, we observe that many populations are facing growing functional health loss. Rising SDI was associated with increases in cumulative years of life lived with disability and decreases in CMNN DALYs offset by increased NCD DALYs. Relative compression of morbidity highlights the importance of continued health interventions, which has changed in most locations in pace with the gross domestic product per person, education, and family planning. The analysis of DALYs and HALE and their relationship to SDI represents a robust framework with which to benchmark location-specific health performance. Country-specific drivers of disease burden, particularly for causes with higher-than-expected DALYs, should inform health policies, health system improvement initiatives, targeted prevention efforts, and development assistance for health, including financial and research investments for all countries, regardless of their level of sociodemographic development. The presence of countries that substantially outperform others suggests the need for increased scrutiny for proven examples of best practices, which can help to extend gains, whereas the presence of underperforming countries suggests the need for devotion of extra attention to health systems that need more robust support. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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    Global, regional, and national comparative risk assessment of 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks, 1990-2016: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2016
    Gakidou, E ; Afshin, A ; Abajobir, AA ; Abate, KH ; Abbafati, C ; Abbas, KM ; Abd-Allah, F ; Abdulle, AM ; Abera, SF ; Aboyans, V ; Abu-Raddad, LJ ; Abu-Rmeileh, NME ; Abyu, GY ; Adedeji, IA ; Adetokunboh, O ; Afarideh, M ; Agrawal, A ; Agrawal, S ; Kiadaliri, AA ; Ahmadieh, H ; Ahmed, MB ; Aichour, AN ; Aichour, I ; Aichour, MTE ; Akinyemi, RO ; Akseer, N ; Alahdab, F ; Al-Aly, Z ; Alam, K ; Alam, N ; Alam, T ; Alasfoor, D ; Alene, KA ; Ali, K ; Alizadeh-Navaei, R ; Alkerwi, A ; Alla, F ; Allebeck, P ; Al-Raddadi, R ; Alsharif, U ; Altirkawi, KA ; Alvis-Guzman, N ; Amare, AT ; Amini, E ; Ammar, W ; Amoako, YA ; Ansari, H ; Anto, JM ; Antonio, CAT ; Anwari, P ; Arian, N ; Arnlov, J ; Artaman, A ; Aryal, KK ; Asayesh, H ; Asgedom, SW ; Atey, TM ; Avila-Burgos, L ; Avokpaho, EFGA ; Awasthi, A ; Azzopardi, P ; Bacha, U ; Badawi, A ; Balakrishnan, K ; Ballew, SH ; Barac, A ; Barber, RM ; Barker-Collo, SL ; Barnighausen, T ; Barquera, S ; Barregard, L ; Barrero, LH ; Batis, C ; Battle, KE ; Baune, BT ; Beardsley, J ; Bedi, N ; Beghi, E ; Bell, ML ; Bennett, DA ; Bennett, JR ; Bensenor, IM ; Berhane, A ; Berhe, DF ; Bernabe, E ; Betsu, BD ; Beuran, M ; Beyene, AS ; Bhansali, A ; Bhutta, ZA ; Bikbov, B ; Birungi, C ; Biryukov, S ; Blosser, CD ; Boneya, DJ ; Bou-Orm, IR ; Brauer, M ; Breitborde, NJK ; Brenner, H ; Brugha, TS ; Bulto, LNB ; Baumgarner, BR ; Butt, ZA ; Cahuana-Hurtado, L ; Cardenas, R ; Carrero, JJ ; Castaneda-Orjuela, CA ; Catala-Lopez, F ; Cercy, K ; Chang, H-Y ; Charlson, FJ ; Chimed-Ochir, O ; Chisumpa, VH ; Chitheer, AA ; Christensen, H ; Christopher, DJ ; Cirillo, M ; Cohen, AJ ; Comfort, H ; Cooper, C ; Coresh, J ; Cornaby, L ; Cortesi, PA ; Criqui, MH ; Crump, JA ; Dandona, L ; Dandona, R ; das Neves, J ; Davey, G ; Davitoiu, DV ; Davletov, K ; de Courten, B ; Degenhardt, L ; Deiparine, S ; Dellavalle, RP ; Deribe, K ; Deshpande, A ; Dharmaratne, SD ; Ding, EL ; Djalalinia, S ; Huyen, PD ; Dokova, K ; Doku, DT ; Dorsey, ER ; Driscoll, TR ; Dubey, M ; Duncan, BB ; Duncan, S ; Ebert, N ; Ebrahimi, H ; El-Khatib, ZZ ; Enayati, A ; Endries, AY ; Ermakov, SP ; Erskine, HE ; Eshrati, B ; Eskandarieh, S ; Esteghamati, A ; Estep, K ; Faraon, EJA ; E Sa Farinha, CS ; Faro, A ; Farzadfar, F ; Fay, K ; Feigin, VL ; Fereshtehnejad, S-M ; Fernandes, JC ; Ferrari, AJ ; Feyissa, TR ; Filip, I ; Fischer, F ; Fitzmaurice, C ; Flaxman, AD ; Foigt, N ; Foreman, KJ ; Frostad, JJ ; Fullman, N ; Furst, T ; Furtado, JM ; Ganji, M ; Garcia-Basteiro, AL ; Gebrehiwot, TT ; Geleijnse, JM ; Geleto, A ; Gemechu, BL ; Gesesew, HA ; Gething, PW ; Ghajar, A ; Gibney, KB ; Gill, PS ; Gillum, RF ; Giref, AZ ; Gishu, MD ; Giussani, G ; Godwin, WW ; Gona, PN ; Goodridge, A ; Gopalani, SV ; Goryakin, Y ; Goulart, AC ; Graetz, N ; Gugnani, HC ; Guo, J ; Gupta, R ; Gupta, T ; Gupta, V ; Gutierrez, RA ; Hachinski, V ; Hafezi-Nejad, N ; Hailu, GB ; Hamadeh, RR ; Hamidi, S ; Hammami, M ; Handal, AJ ; Hankey, GJ ; Harb, HL ; Hareri, HA ; Hassanvand, MS ; Havmoeller, R ; Hawley, C ; Hay, SI ; Hedayati, MT ; Hendrie, D ; Beatriz Heredia-Pi, I ; Hoek, HW ; Horita, N ; Hosgood, HD ; Hostiuc, S ; Hoy, DG ; Hsairi, M ; Hu, G ; Huang, H ; Huang, JJ ; Iburg, KM ; Ikeda, C ; Inoue, M ; Irvine, CMS ; Jackson, MD ; Jacobsen, KH ; Jahanmehr, N ; Jakovljevic, MMB ; Jauregui, A ; Javanbakht, M ; Jeemon, P ; Johansson, LRK ; Johnson, CO ; Jonas, JB ; Jurisson, M ; Kabir, Z ; Kadel, R ; Kahsay, A ; Kamal, R ; Karch, A ; Karema, CK ; Kasaeian, A ; Kassebaum, NJ ; Kastor, A ; Katikireddi, SV ; Kawakami, N ; Keiyoro, PN ; Kelbore, SG ; Kemmer, L ; Kengne, AP ; Kesavachandran, CN ; Khader, YS ; Khalil, IA ; Khan, EA ; Khang, Y-H ; Khosravi, A ; Khubchandani, J ; Kieling, C ; Kim, D ; Kim, JY ; Kim, YJ ; Kimokoti, RW ; Kinfu, Y ; Kisa, A ; Kissimova-Skarbek, KA ; Kivimaki, M ; Knibbs, LD ; Knudsen, AK ; Kopec, JA ; Kosen, S ; Koul, PA ; Koyanagi, A ; Kravchenko, M ; Krohn, KJ ; Kromhout, H ; Defo, BK ; Bicer, BK ; Kumar, GA ; Kutz, M ; Kyu, HH ; Lal, DK ; Lalloo, R ; Lallukka, T ; Lan, Q ; Lansingh, VC ; Larsson, A ; Lee, A ; Lee, PH ; Leigh, J ; Leung, J ; Levi, M ; Li, Y ; Li, Y ; Liang, X ; Liben, ML ; Linn, S ; Liu, P ; Lodha, R ; Logroscino, G ; Looker, KJ ; Lopez, AD ; Lorkowski, S ; Lotufo, PA ; Lozano, R ; Lunevicius, R ; Macarayan, ERK ; Abd el Razek, HM ; Abd el Razek, MM ; Majdan, M ; Majdzadeh, R ; Majeed, A ; Malekzadeh, R ; Malhotra, R ; Malta, DC ; Mamun, AA ; Manguerra, H ; Mantovani, LG ; Mapoma, CC ; Martin, RV ; Martinez-Raga, J ; Martins-Melo, FR ; Mathur, MR ; Matsushita, K ; Matzopoulos, R ; Mazidi, M ; McAlinden, C ; McGrath, JJ ; Mehata, S ; Mehndiratta, MM ; Meier, T ; Melaku, YA ; Memiah, P ; Memish, ZA ; Mendoza, W ; Mengesha, MM ; Mensah, GA ; Mensink, GBM ; Mereta, ST ; Meretoja, A ; Meretoja, TJ ; Mezgebe, HB ; Micha, R ; Millear, A ; Miller, TR ; Minnig, S ; Mirarefin, M ; Mirrakhimov, EM ; Misganaw, A ; Mishra, SR ; Mohammad, KA ; Mohammed, KE ; Mohammed, S ; Ibrahim, NM ; Mohan, MBV ; Mokdad, AH ; Monasta, L ; Montanez Hernandez, JC ; Montico, M ; Moradi-Lakeh, M ; Moraga, P ; Morawska, L ; Morrison, SD ; Mountjoy-Venning, C ; Mueller, UO ; Mullany, EC ; Muller, K ; Murthy, GVS ; Musa, KI ; Naghavi, M ; Naheed, A ; Nangia, V ; Natarajan, G ; Negoi, I ; Negoi, RI ; Cuong, TN ; Grant, N ; Minh, N ; Quyen, LN ; Trang, HN ; Nichols, E ; Ningrum, DNA ; Nomura, M ; Vuong, MN ; Norheim, OF ; Norrving, B ; Noubiap, JJN ; Obermeyer, CM ; Ogbo, FA ; Oh, H ; Oladimeji, O ; Olagunju, AT ; Olagunju, TO ; Olivares, PR ; Olsen, HE ; Olusanya, BO ; Olusanya, JO ; Opio, JN ; Oren, E ; Ortiz, A ; Ota, E ; Owolabi, MO ; Pa, M ; Pacella, RE ; Pana, A ; Panda, BK ; Panda-Jonas, S ; Pandian, JD ; Papachristou, C ; Park, E-K ; Parry, CD ; Patten, SB ; Patton, GC ; Pereira, DM ; Perico, N ; Pesudovs, K ; Petzold, M ; Phillips, MR ; Pillay, JD ; Piradov, MA ; Pishgar, F ; Plass, D ; Pletcher, MA ; Polinder, S ; Popova, S ; Poulton, RG ; Pourmalek, F ; Prasad, N ; Purcell, C ; Qorbani, M ; Radfar, A ; Rafay, A ; Rahimi-Movaghar, A ; Rahimi-Movaghar, V ; Rahman, M ; Rahman, MHU ; Rahman, MA ; Rai, RK ; Rajsic, S ; Ram, U ; Rawaf, S ; Rehm, CD ; Rehm, J ; Reiner, RC ; Reitsma, MB ; Myriam Reynales-Shigematsu, L ; Remuzzi, G ; Renzaho, AMN ; Resnikoff, S ; Rezaei, S ; Ribeiro, AL ; Rivera, JA ; Roba, KT ; Rojas-Rueda, D ; Roman, Y ; Room, R ; Roshandel, G ; Roth, GA ; Rothenbacher, D ; Rubagotti, E ; Rushton, L ; Sadat, N ; Safdarian, M ; Safi, S ; Safiri, S ; Sahathevan, R ; Salama, J ; Salomon, JA ; Samy, AM ; Sanabria, JR ; Dolores Sanchez-Nino, M ; Sanchez-Pimienta, TG ; Santomauro, D ; Santos, IS ; Milicevic, MMS ; Sartorius, B ; Satpathy, M ; Sawhney, M ; Saxena, S ; Schaeffner, E ; Schmidt, MI ; Schneider, IJC ; Schutte, AE ; Schwebel, DC ; Schwendicke, F ; Seedat, S ; Sepanlou, SG ; Serdar, B ; Servan-Mori, EE ; Shaddick, G ; Shaheen, A ; Shahraz, S ; Shaikh, MA ; Levy, TS ; Shamsipour, M ; Shamsizadeh, M ; Islam, SMS ; Sharma, J ; Sharma, R ; She, J ; Shen, J ; Shi, P ; Shibuya, K ; Shields, C ; Shiferaw, MS ; Shigematsu, M ; Shin, M-J ; Shiri, R ; Shirkoohi, R ; Shishani, K ; Shoman, H ; Shrime, MG ; Sigfusdottir, ID ; Santos Silva, DA ; Silva, JP ; Alves Silveira, DG ; Singh, JA ; Singh, V ; Sinha, DN ; Skiadaresi, E ; Slepak, EL ; Smith, DL ; Smith, M ; Sobaih, BHA ; Sobngwi, E ; Soneji, S ; Sorensen, RJD ; Sposato, LA ; Sreeramareddy, CT ; Srinivasan, V ; Steel, N ; Stein, DJ ; Steiner, C ; Steinke, S ; Stokes, MA ; Strub, B ; Subart, M ; Sufiyan, MB ; Strub, B ; Subart, M ; Sufiyan, MB ; Suliankatchi, RA ; Sur, PJ ; Swaminathan, S ; Sykes, BL ; Szoeke, CEI ; Tabares-Seisdedos, R ; Tadakamadla, SK ; Takahashi, K ; Takala, JS ; Tandon, N ; Tanner, M ; Tarekegn, YL ; Tavakkoli, M ; Tegegne, TK ; Tehrani-Banihashemi, A ; Terkawi, AS ; Tesssema, B ; Thakur, JS ; Thamsuwan, O ; Thankappan, KR ; Theis, AM ; Thomas, ML ; Thomson, AJ ; Thrift, AG ; Tillmann, T ; Tobe-Gai, R ; Tobollik, M ; Tollanes, MC ; Tonelli, M ; Topor-Madry, R ; Torre, A ; Tortajada, M ; Touvier, M ; Tran, BX ; Truelsen, T ; Tuem, KB ; Tuzcu, EM ; Tyrovolas, S ; Ukwaja, KN ; Uneke, CJ ; Updike, R ; Uthman, OA ; van Boven, JFM ; van Donkelaar, A ; Varughese, S ; Vasankari, T ; Veerman, LJ ; Venkateswaran, V ; Venketasubramanian, N ; Violante, FS ; Vladimirov, SK ; Vlassov, VV ; Vollset, SE ; Vos, T ; Wadilo, F ; Wakayo, T ; Wallin, MT ; Wang, Y-P ; Weichenthal, S ; Weiderpass, E ; Weintraub, RG ; Weiss, DJ ; Werdecker, A ; Westerman, R ; Whiteford, HA ; Wiysonge, CS ; Woldeyes, BG ; Wolfe, CDA ; Woodbrook, R ; Workicho, A ; Hanson, SW ; Xavier, D ; Xu, G ; Yadgir, S ; Yakob, B ; Yan, LL ; Yaseri, M ; Yimam, HH ; Yip, P ; Yonemoto, N ; Yoon, S-J ; Yotebieng, M ; Younis, MZ ; Zaidi, Z ; Zaki, MES ; Zavala-Arciniega, L ; Zhang, X ; Zimsen, SRM ; Zipkin, B ; Zodpey, S ; Lim, SS ; Murray, CJL (ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2017-09-16)
    BACKGROUND: The Global Burden of Diseases, Injuries, and Risk Factors Study 2016 (GBD 2016) provides a comprehensive assessment of risk factor exposure and attributable burden of disease. By providing estimates over a long time series, this study can monitor risk exposure trends critical to health surveillance and inform policy debates on the importance of addressing risks in context. METHODS: We used the comparative risk assessment framework developed for previous iterations of GBD to estimate levels and trends in exposure, attributable deaths, and attributable disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), by age group, sex, year, and location for 84 behavioural, environmental and occupational, and metabolic risks or clusters of risks from 1990 to 2016. This study included 481 risk-outcome pairs that met the GBD study criteria for convincing or probable evidence of causation. We extracted relative risk (RR) and exposure estimates from 22 717 randomised controlled trials, cohorts, pooled cohorts, household surveys, census data, satellite data, and other sources, according to the GBD 2016 source counting methods. Using the counterfactual scenario of theoretical minimum risk exposure level (TMREL), we estimated the portion of deaths and DALYs that could be attributed to a given risk. Finally, we explored four drivers of trends in attributable burden: population growth, population ageing, trends in risk exposure, and all other factors combined. FINDINGS: Since 1990, exposure increased significantly for 30 risks, did not change significantly for four risks, and decreased significantly for 31 risks. Among risks that are leading causes of burden of disease, child growth failure and household air pollution showed the most significant declines, while metabolic risks, such as body-mass index and high fasting plasma glucose, showed significant increases. In 2016, at Level 3 of the hierarchy, the three leading risk factors in terms of attributable DALYs at the global level for men were smoking (124·1 million DALYs [95% UI 111·2 million to 137·0 million]), high systolic blood pressure (122·2 million DALYs [110·3 million to 133·3 million], and low birthweight and short gestation (83·0 million DALYs [78·3 million to 87·7 million]), and for women, were high systolic blood pressure (89·9 million DALYs [80·9 million to 98·2 million]), high body-mass index (64·8 million DALYs [44·4 million to 87·6 million]), and high fasting plasma glucose (63·8 million DALYs [53·2 million to 76·3 million]). In 2016 in 113 countries, the leading risk factor in terms of attributable DALYs was a metabolic risk factor. Smoking remained among the leading five risk factors for DALYs for 109 countries, while low birthweight and short gestation was the leading risk factor for DALYs in 38 countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia. In terms of important drivers of change in trends of burden attributable to risk factors, between 2006 and 2016 exposure to risks explains an 9·3% (6·9-11·6) decline in deaths and a 10·8% (8·3-13·1) decrease in DALYs at the global level, while population ageing accounts for 14·9% (12·7-17·5) of deaths and 6·2% (3·9-8·7) of DALYs, and population growth for 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of deaths and 12·4% (10·1-14·9) of DALYs. The largest contribution of trends in risk exposure to disease burden is seen between ages 1 year and 4 years, where a decline of 27·3% (24·9-29·7) of the change in DALYs between 2006 and 2016 can be attributed to declines in exposure to risks. INTERPRETATION: Increasingly detailed understanding of the trends in risk exposure and the RRs for each risk-outcome pair provide insights into both the magnitude of health loss attributable to risks and how modification of risk exposure has contributed to health trends. Metabolic risks warrant particular policy attention, due to their large contribution to global disease burden, increasing trends, and variable patterns across countries at the same level of development. GBD 2016 findings show that, while it has huge potential to improve health, risk modification has played a relatively small part in the past decade. FUNDING: The Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation, Bloomberg Philanthropies.
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    Maternal mortality and morbidity burden in the Eastern Mediterranean Region: findings from the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study
    Mokdad, AH ; Khalil, I ; Collison, M ; El Bcheraoui, C ; Charara, R ; Moradi-Lakeh, M ; Afshin, A ; Chew, A ; Daoud, F ; Krohn, KJ ; Colombara, D ; Ehrenkranz, R ; Kutz, M ; Wang, H ; Abajobir, AA ; Abd-Allah, F ; Abraha, HN ; Abu-Raddad, LJ ; Kiadaliri, AA ; Ahmadi, A ; Ahmed, KY ; Ahmed, MB ; Al Lami, FH ; Alam, K ; Alasfoor, D ; Alizadeh-Navaei, R ; Alkaabi, JM ; Al-Maskari, F ; Al-Raddadi, R ; Altirkawi, KA ; Anber, N ; Ansari, H ; Asayesh, H ; Asghar, RJ ; Atey, TM ; Ayele, TA ; Baernighausen, T ; Bacha, U ; Barac, A ; Barker-Collo, SL ; Baune, BT ; Bazargan-Hejazi, S ; Geffen, D ; Bedi, N ; Bensenor, IM ; Berhane, A ; Beyene, AS ; Bhutta, ZA ; Boneya, DJ ; Borschmann, R ; Breitborde, NJK ; Butt, ZA ; Catala-Lopez, F ; Ciobanu, LG ; Danawi, H ; Deribew, A ; Dharmaratne, SD ; Doyle, KE ; Endries, AY ; Faraon, EJA ; Faro, A ; Farvid, MS ; Fekadu, W ; Fereshtehnejad, S-M ; Fischer, F ; Gebrehiwot, TT ; Giref, AZ ; Gishu, MD ; Goulart, AC ; Habtewold, TD ; Hamadeh, RR ; Hambisa, MT ; Hamidi, S ; Maria Haro, J ; Hassanvand, MS ; Horita, N ; Hsairi, M ; Huang, H ; Husseini, A ; Jakovljevic, MB ; James, SL ; Jonas, JB ; Kasaeian, A ; Khader, YS ; Khan, EA ; Khoja, ATA ; Khosravi, A ; Khubchandani, J ; Kim, D ; Kim, YJ ; Kokubo, Y ; Koyanagi, A ; Defo, BK ; Larson, HJ ; Latif, AA ; Lee, PH ; Leshargie, CT ; Leung, R ; Lo, L-T ; Lunevicius, R ; Abd El Razek, HM ; Abd El Razek, MM ; Majdzadeh, R ; Majeed, A ; Malekzadeh, R ; Martinez-Raga, J ; Farid, HM ; Mazidi, M ; McGrath, JJ ; Memish, ZA ; Mendoza, W ; Mengesha, MM ; Mengistie, MA ; Mensah, GA ; Mezgebe, HB ; Miller, TR ; Mitchell, PB ; Mohammadi, A ; Mohammed, S ; Obermeyer, CM ; Ogbo, FA ; Palomares Castillo, E ; Papachristou, C ; Patten, SB ; Patton, GC ; Pereira, DM ; Pervaiz, A ; Phillips, MR ; Pourmalek, F ; Qorbani, M ; Radfar, A ; Rafay, A ; Rahimi-Movaghar, V ; Rai, RK ; Rawaf, DL ; Rawaf, S ; Refaat, AH ; Rezaei, S ; Rezai, MS ; Roshandel, G ; Safdarian, M ; Safiabadi, M ; Safiri, S ; Sagar, R ; Sahraian, MA ; Salamati, P ; Samy, AM ; Sartorius, B ; Saylan, MI ; Seedat, S ; Sepanlou, SG ; Shaikh, MA ; Shamsizadeh, M ; Santos Silva, DA ; Singh, JA ; Sobaih, BHA ; Sreeramareddy, CT ; Stein, DJ ; Abdulkader, RS ; Sykes, BL ; Tabares-Seisdedos, R ; Sufiyan, M ; Tabb, KM ; Tehrani-Banihashemi, A ; Temsah, M-H ; Terkawi, AS ; Topor-Madry, R ; Ukwaja, KN ; Uthman, OA ; Vollset, SE ; Wakayo, T ; Wang, Y-P ; Werdecker, A ; Westerman, R ; Workicho, A ; Yaghoubi, M ; Yimam, HH ; Yonemoto, N ; Younis, MZ ; Yu, C ; Zaki, MES ; Jumaan, AO ; Vos, T ; Hay, SI ; Naghavi, M ; Kassebaum, NJ ; Murray, CJL (SPRINGER BASEL AG, 2018-05-01)
    OBJECTIVES: Assessing the burden of maternal mortality is important for tracking progress and identifying public health gaps. This paper provides an overview of the burden of maternal mortality in the Eastern Mediterranean Region (EMR) by underlying cause and age from 1990 to 2015. METHODS: We used the results of the Global Burden of Disease 2015 study to explore maternal mortality in the EMR countries. RESULTS: The maternal mortality ratio in the EMR decreased 16.3% from 283 (241-328) maternal deaths per 100,000 live births in 1990 to 237 (188-293) in 2015. Maternal mortality ratio was strongly correlated with socio-demographic status, where the lowest-income countries contributed the most to the burden of maternal mortality in the region. CONCLUSION: Progress in reducing maternal mortality in the EMR has accelerated in the past 15 years, but the burden remains high. Coordinated and rigorous efforts are needed to make sure that adequate and timely services and interventions are available for women at each stage of reproductive life.
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    The burden of mental disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean region, 1990-2015: findings from the global burden of disease 2015 study
    Mokdad, AH ; Charara, R ; El Bcheraoui, C ; Khalil, I ; Moradi-Lakeh, M ; Afshin, A ; Kassebaum, NJ ; Collison, M ; Krohn, KJ ; Chew, A ; Daoud, F ; Charlson, FJ ; Colombara, D ; Degenhardt, L ; Ehrenkranz, R ; Erskine, HE ; Ferrari, AJ ; Kutz, M ; Leung, J ; Santomauro, D ; Wang, H ; Whiteford, HA ; Abajobir, AA ; Abd-Allah, F ; Abraha, HN ; Abu-Raddad, LJ ; Kiadaliri, AA ; Ahmadi, A ; Yimam, K ; Beshir, M ; Al Lami, FH ; Alam, K ; Alasfoor, D ; Alizadeh-Navaei, R ; Alkaabi, JM ; Al-Maskari, F ; Al-Raddadi, R ; Altirkawi, KA ; Anber, N ; Ansari, H ; Asayesh, H ; Asghar, RJ ; Atey, TM ; Ayele, TA ; Baernighausen, T ; Bacha, U ; Barac, A ; Barker-Collo, SL ; Baune, BT ; Bazargan-Hejazi, S ; Drew, CR ; Geffen, D ; Bedi, N ; Bensenor, IM ; Berhane, A ; Beyene, AS ; Bhutta, ZA ; Boneya, DJ ; Borschmann, R ; Breitborde, NJK ; Butt, ZA ; Catala-Lopez, F ; Ciobanu, LG ; Danawi, H ; Deribew, A ; Dharmaratne, SD ; Doyle, KE ; Endries, AY ; Faraon, EJA ; Faro, A ; Farvid, MS ; Fekadu, W ; Fereshtehnejad, S-M ; Fischer, F ; Gebrehiwot, TT ; Giref, AZ ; Gishu, MD ; Carvalho, A ; Habtewold, TD ; Hamadeh, RR ; Hambisa, MT ; Hamidi, S ; Haro, JM ; Hassanvand, MS ; Horita, N ; Hsairi, M ; Huang, H ; Husseini, A ; Jakovljevic, MB ; James, SL ; Jonas, JB ; Kasaeian, A ; Khader, YS ; Khan, EA ; Khoja, ATA ; Khosravi, A ; Khubchandani, J ; Kim, D ; Kim, YJ ; Kokubo, Y ; Koyanagi, A ; Defo, BK ; Larson, HJ ; Latif, AA ; Lee, PH ; Leshargie, CT ; Leung, R ; Lo, L-T ; Lunevicius, R ; Abd El Razek, HM ; Abd El Razek, MM ; Majdzadeh, R ; Majeed, A ; Malekzadeh, R ; Martinez-Raga, J ; Farid, HM ; Mazidi, M ; McGrath, JJ ; Memish, ZA ; Mendoza, W ; Mengesha, MM ; Mengistie, MA ; Mezgebe, HB ; Miller, TR ; Mitchell, PB ; Mohammadi, A ; Mohammed, S ; Obermeyer, CM ; Ogbo, FA ; Castillo, EP ; Papachristou, C ; Patten, SB ; Patton, GC ; Pervaiz, A ; Phillips, MR ; Pourmalek, F ; Qorbani, M ; Radfar, A ; Rafay, A ; Rahimi-Movaghar, V ; Rai, RK ; Rawaf, DL ; Rawaf, S ; Refaat, AH ; Rezaei, S ; Rezai, MS ; Roshandel, G ; Safdarian, M ; Safiabadi, M ; Safiri, S ; Sagar, R ; Sahraian, MA ; Salamati, P ; Samy, AM ; Sartorius, B ; Saylan, MI ; Seedat, S ; Sepanlou, SG ; Shaikh, MA ; Shamsizadeh, M ; Silva, DAS ; Singh, JA ; Sobaih, BHA ; Stein, DJ ; Abdulkader, RS ; Sykes, BL ; Tabares-Seisdedos, R ; Tabb, KM ; Tehrani-Banihashemi, A ; Temsah, M-H ; Terkawi, AS ; Topor-Madry, R ; Ukwaja, KN ; Uthman, OA ; Vollset, SE ; Wakayo, T ; Wang, Y-P ; Werdecker, A ; Westerman, R ; Workicho, A ; Yaghoubi, M ; Yimam, HH ; Yonemoto, N ; Younis, MZ ; Yu, C ; Zaki, MES ; Zein, B ; Jumaan, AO ; Vos, T ; Hay, SI ; Naghavi, M ; Murray, CJL (SPRINGER BASEL AG, 2018-05-01)
    OBJECTIVES: Mental disorders are among the leading causes of nonfatal burden of disease globally. METHODS: We used the global burden of diseases, injuries, and risk factors study 2015 to examine the burden of mental disorders in the Eastern Mediterranean region (EMR). We defined mental disorders according to criteria proposed in the diagnostic and statistical manual of mental disorders IV and the 10th International Classification of Diseases. RESULTS: Mental disorders contributed to 4.7% (95% uncertainty interval (UI) 3.7-5.6%) of total disability-adjusted life-years (DALYs), ranking as the ninth leading cause of disease burden. Depressive disorders and anxiety disorders were the third and ninth leading causes of nonfatal burden, respectively. Almost all countries in the EMR had higher age-standardized mental disorder DALYs rates compared to the global level, and in half of the EMR countries, observed mental disorder rates exceeded the expected values. CONCLUSIONS: The burden of mental disorders in the EMR is higher than global levels, particularly for women. To properly address this burden, EMR governments should implement nationwide quality epidemiological surveillance of mental disorders and provide adequate prevention and treatment services.