Psychiatry - Research Publications

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    Heterogeneity and Classification of Recent Onset Psychosis and Depression: A Multimodal Machine Learning Approach
    Lalousis, PA ; Wood, SJ ; Schmaal, L ; Chisholm, K ; Griffiths, S ; Reniers, R ; Bertolino, A ; Borgwardt, S ; Brambilla, P ; Kambeitz, J ; Lencer, R ; Pantelis, C ; Ruhrmann, S ; Salokangas, RKR ; Schultze-Lutter, F ; Bonivento, C ; Dwyer, DB ; Ferro, A ; Haidl, T ; Rosen, M ; Schmidt, A ; Meisenzahl, E ; Koutsouleris, N ; Upthegrove, R (Elsevier BV, 2021-05)
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    Association of Structural Magnetic Resonance Imaging Measures With Psychosis Onset in Individuals at Clinical High Risk for Developing Psychosis An ENIGMA Working Group Mega-analysis
    Jalbrzikowski, M ; Hayes, RA ; Wood, SJ ; Nordholm, D ; Zhou, JH ; Fusar-Poli, P ; Uhlhaas, PJ ; Takahashi, T ; Sugranyes, G ; Kwak, YB ; Mathalon, DH ; Katagiri, N ; Hooker, CI ; Smigielski, L ; Colibazzi, T ; Via, E ; Tang, J ; Koike, S ; Rasser, PE ; Michel, C ; Lebedeva, I ; Hegelstad, WTV ; de la Fuente-Sandoval, C ; Waltz, JA ; Mizrahi, R ; Corcoran, CM ; Resch, F ; Tamnes, CK ; Haas, SS ; Lemmers-Jansen, ILJ ; Agartz, I ; Allen, P ; Amminger, GP ; Andreassen, OA ; Atkinson, K ; Bachman, P ; Baeza, I ; Baldwin, H ; Bartholomeusz, CF ; Borgwardt, S ; Catalano, S ; Chee, MWL ; Chen, X ; Cho, KIK ; Cooper, RE ; Cropley, VL ; Dolz, M ; Ebdrup, BH ; Fortea, A ; Glenthoj, LB ; Glenthoj, BY ; de Haan, L ; Hamilton, HK ; Harris, MA ; Haut, KM ; He, Y ; Heekeren, K ; Heinz, A ; Hubl, D ; Hwang, WJ ; Kaess, M ; Kasai, K ; Kim, M ; Kindler, J ; Klaunig, MJ ; Koppel, A ; Kristensen, TD ; Kwon, JS ; Lawrie, SM ; Lee, J ; Leon-Ortiz, P ; Lin, A ; Loewy, RL ; Ma, X ; McGorry, P ; McGuire, P ; Mizuno, M ; Moller, P ; Moncada-Habib, T ; Munoz-Samons, D ; Nelson, B ; Nemoto, T ; Nordentoft, M ; Omelchenko, MA ; Oppedal, K ; Ouyang, L ; Pantelis, C ; Pariente, JC ; Raghava, JM ; Reyes-Madrigal, F ; Roach, BJ ; Rossberg, JI ; Rossler, W ; Salisbury, DF ; Sasabayashi, D ; Schall, U ; Schiffman, J ; Schlagenhauf, F ; Schmidt, A ; Sorensen, ME ; Suzuki, M ; Theodoridou, A ; Tomyshev, AS ; Tor, J ; Vaernes, TG ; Velakoulis, D ; Venegoni, GD ; Vinogradov, S ; Wenneberg, C ; Westlye, LT ; Yamasue, H ; Yuan, L ; Yung, AR ; van Amelsvoort, TAMJ ; Turner, JA ; van Erp, TGM ; Thompson, PM ; Hernaus, D (AMER MEDICAL ASSOC, 2021-07)
    IMPORTANCE: The ENIGMA clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis initiative, the largest pooled neuroimaging sample of individuals at CHR to date, aims to discover robust neurobiological markers of psychosis risk. OBJECTIVE: To investigate baseline structural neuroimaging differences between individuals at CHR and healthy controls as well as between participants at CHR who later developed a psychotic disorder (CHR-PS+) and those who did not (CHR-PS-). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: In this case-control study, baseline T1-weighted magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) data were pooled from 31 international sites participating in the ENIGMA Clinical High Risk for Psychosis Working Group. CHR status was assessed using the Comprehensive Assessment of At-Risk Mental States or Structured Interview for Prodromal Syndromes. MRI scans were processed using harmonized protocols and analyzed within a mega-analysis and meta-analysis framework from January to October 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Measures of regional cortical thickness (CT), surface area, and subcortical volumes were extracted from T1-weighted MRI scans. Independent variables were group (CHR group vs control group) and conversion status (CHR-PS+ group vs CHR-PS- group vs control group). RESULTS: Of the 3169 included participants, 1428 (45.1%) were female, and the mean (SD; range) age was 21.1 (4.9; 9.5-39.9) years. This study included 1792 individuals at CHR and 1377 healthy controls. Using longitudinal clinical information, 253 in the CHR-PS+ group, 1234 in the CHR-PS- group, and 305 at CHR without follow-up data were identified. Compared with healthy controls, individuals at CHR exhibited widespread lower CT measures (mean [range] Cohen d = -0.13 [-0.17 to -0.09]), but not surface area or subcortical volume. Lower CT measures in the fusiform, superior temporal, and paracentral regions were associated with psychosis conversion (mean Cohen d = -0.22; 95% CI, -0.35 to 0.10). Among healthy controls, compared with those in the CHR-PS+ group, age showed a stronger negative association with left fusiform CT measures (F = 9.8; P < .001; q < .001) and left paracentral CT measures (F = 5.9; P = .005; q = .02). Effect sizes representing lower CT associated with psychosis conversion resembled patterns of CT differences observed in ENIGMA studies of schizophrenia (ρ = 0.35; 95% CI, 0.12 to 0.55; P = .004) and individuals with 22q11.2 microdeletion syndrome and a psychotic disorder diagnosis (ρ = 0.43; 95% CI, 0.20 to 0.61; P = .001). CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: This study provides evidence for widespread subtle, lower CT measures in individuals at CHR. The pattern of CT measure differences in those in the CHR-PS+ group was similar to those reported in other large-scale investigations of psychosis. Additionally, a subset of these regions displayed abnormal age associations. Widespread disruptions in CT coupled with abnormal age associations in those at CHR may point to disruptions in postnatal brain developmental processes.
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    Heterogeneity and Classification of Recent Onset Psychosis and Depression: A Multimodal Machine Learning Approach
    Lalousis, PA ; Wood, SJ ; Schmaal, L ; Chisholm, K ; Griffiths, SL ; Reniers, RLEP ; Bertolino, A ; Borgwardt, S ; Brambilla, P ; Kambeitz, J ; Lencer, R ; Pantelis, C ; Ruhrmann, S ; Salokangas, RKR ; Schultze-Lutter, F ; Bonivento, C ; Dwyer, D ; Ferro, A ; Haidl, T ; Rosen, M ; Schmidt, A ; Meisenzahl, E ; Koutsouleris, N ; Upthegrove, R (OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2021-07)
    Diagnostic heterogeneity within and across psychotic and affective disorders challenges accurate treatment selection, particularly in the early stages. Delineation of shared and distinct illness features at the phenotypic and brain levels may inform the development of more precise differential diagnostic tools. We aimed to identify prototypes of depression and psychosis to investigate their heterogeneity, with common, comorbid transdiagnostic symptoms. Analyzing clinical/neurocognitive and grey matter volume (GMV) data from the PRONIA database, we generated prototypic models of recent-onset depression (ROD) vs. recent-onset psychosis (ROP) by training support-vector machines to separate patients with ROD from patients with ROP, who were selected for absent comorbid features (pure groups). Then, models were applied to patients with comorbidity, ie, ROP with depressive symptoms (ROP+D) and ROD participants with sub-threshold psychosis-like features (ROD+P), to measure their positions within the affective-psychotic continuum. All models were independently validated in a replication sample. Comorbid patients were positioned between pure groups, with ROP+D patients being more frequently classified as ROD compared to pure ROP patients (clinical/neurocognitive model: χ2 = 14.874; P < .001; GMV model: χ2 = 4.933; P = .026). ROD+P patient classification did not differ from ROD (clinical/neurocognitive model: χ2 = 1.956; P = 0.162; GMV model: χ2 = 0.005; P = .943). Clinical/neurocognitive and neuroanatomical models demonstrated separability of prototypic depression from psychosis. The shift of comorbid patients toward the depression prototype, observed at the clinical and biological levels, suggests that psychosis with affective comorbidity aligns more strongly to depressive rather than psychotic disease processes. Future studies should assess how these quantitative measures of comorbidity predict outcomes and individual responses to stratified therapeutic interventions.
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    Multimodal prognosis of negative symptom severity in individuals at increased risk of developing psychosis
    Hauke, DJ ; Schmidt, A ; Studerus, E ; Andreou, C ; Riecher-Roessler, A ; Radua, J ; Kambeitz, J ; Ruef, A ; Dwyer, DB ; Kambeitz-Ilankovic, L ; Lichtenstein, T ; Sanfelici, R ; Penzel, N ; Haas, SS ; Antonucci, LA ; Lalousis, PA ; Chisholm, K ; Schultze-Lutter, F ; Ruhrmann, S ; Hietala, J ; Brambilla, P ; Koutsouleris, N ; Meisenzahl, E ; Pantelis, C ; Rosen, M ; Salokangas, RKR ; Upthegrove, R ; Wood, SJ ; Borgwardt, S (SPRINGERNATURE, 2021-05-24)
    Negative symptoms occur frequently in individuals at clinical high risk (CHR) for psychosis and contribute to functional impairments. The aim of this study was to predict negative symptom severity in CHR after 9 months. Predictive models either included baseline negative symptoms measured with the Structured Interview for Psychosis-Risk Syndromes (SIPS-N), whole-brain gyrification, or both to forecast negative symptoms of at least moderate severity in 94 CHR. We also conducted sequential risk stratification to stratify CHR into different risk groups based on the SIPS-N and gyrification model. Additionally, we assessed the models' ability to predict functional outcomes in CHR and their transdiagnostic generalizability to predict negative symptoms in 96 patients with recent-onset psychosis (ROP) and 97 patients with recent-onset depression (ROD). Baseline SIPS-N and gyrification predicted moderate/severe negative symptoms with significant balanced accuracies of 68 and 62%, while the combined model achieved 73% accuracy. Sequential risk stratification stratified CHR into a high (83%), medium (40-64%), and low (19%) risk group regarding their risk of having moderate/severe negative symptoms at 9 months follow-up. The baseline SIPS-N model was also able to predict social (61%), but not role functioning (59%) at above-chance accuracies, whereas the gyrification model achieved significant accuracies in predicting both social (76%) and role (74%) functioning in CHR. Finally, only the baseline SIPS-N model showed transdiagnostic generalization to ROP (63%). This study delivers a multimodal prognostic model to identify those CHR with a clinically relevant negative symptom severity and functional impairments, potentially requiring further therapeutic consideration.
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    Impaired olfactory ability associated with larger left hippocampus and rectus volumes at earliest stages of schizophrenia: A sign of neuroinflammation?
    Masaoka, Y ; Velakoulis, D ; Brewer, WJ ; Cropley, VL ; Bartholomeusz, CF ; Yung, AR ; Nelson, B ; Dwyer, D ; Wannan, CMJ ; Izumizaki, M ; McGorry, PD ; Wood, SJ ; Pantelis, C (ELSEVIER IRELAND LTD, 2020-07)
    Impaired olfactory identification has been reported as a first sign of schizophrenia during the earliest stages of illness, including before illness onset. The aim of this study was to examine the relationship between volumes of these regions (amygdala, hippocampus, gyrus rectus and orbitofrontal cortex) and olfactory ability in three groups of participants: healthy control participants (Ctls), patients with first-episode schizophrenia (FE-Scz) and chronic schizophrenia patients (Scz). Exploratory analyses were performed in a sample of individuals at ultra-high risk (UHR) for psychosis in a co-submission paper (Masaoka et al., 2020). The relationship to brain structural measures was not apparent prior to psychosis onset, but was only evident following illness onset, with a different pattern of relationships apparent across illness stages (FE-Scz vs Scz). Path analysis found that lower olfactory ability was related to larger volumes of the left hippocampus and gyrus rectus in the FE-Scz group. We speculate that larger hippocampus and rectus in early schizophrenia are indicative of swelling, potentially caused by an active neurochemical or immunological process, such as inflammation or neurotoxicity, which is associated with impaired olfactory ability. The volumetric decreases in the chronic stage of Scz may be due to degeneration resulting from an active immune process and its resolution.
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    Functional Connectivity in Antipsychotic-Treated and Antipsychotic-Naive Patients With First-Episode Psychosis and Low Risk of Self-harm or Aggression A Secondary Analysis of a Randomized Clinical Trial
    Chopra, S ; Francey, SM ; O'Donoghue, B ; Sabaroedin, K ; Arnatkeviciute, A ; Cropley, V ; Nelson, B ; Graham, J ; Baldwin, L ; Tahtalian, S ; Yuen, HP ; Allott, K ; Alvarez-Jimenez, M ; Harrigan, S ; Pantelis, C ; Wood, SJ ; McGorry, P ; Fornito, A (AMER MEDICAL ASSOC, 2021-09)
    IMPORTANCE: Altered functional connectivity (FC) is a common finding in resting-state functional magnetic resonance imaging (rs-fMRI) studies of people with psychosis, yet how FC disturbances evolve in the early stages of illness, and how antipsychotic treatment influences these disturbances, remains unknown. OBJECTIVE: To investigate longitudinal FC changes in antipsychotic-naive and antipsychotic-treated patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP). DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This secondary analysis of a triple-blind, randomized clinical trial was conducted over a 5-year recruitment period between April 2008 and December 2016 with 59 antipsychotic-naive patients with FEP receiving either a second-generation antipsychotic or a placebo pill over a treatment period of 6 months. Participants were required to have low suicidality and aggression, to have a duration of untreated psychosis of less than 6 months, and to be living in stable accommodations with social support. Both FEP groups received intensive psychosocial therapy. A healthy control group was also recruited. Participants completed rs-fMRI scans at baseline, 3 months, and 12 months. Data were analyzed from May 2019 to August 2020. INTERVENTIONS: Resting-state functional MRI was used to probe brain FC. Patients received either a second-generation antipsychotic or a matched placebo tablet. Both patient groups received a manualized psychosocial intervention. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcomes of this analysis were to investigate (1) FC differences between patients and controls at baseline; (2) FC changes in medicated and unmedicated patients between baseline and 3 months; and (3) associations between longitudinal FC changes and clinical outcomes. An additional aim was to investigate long-term FC changes at 12 months after baseline. These outcomes were not preregistered. RESULTS: Data were analyzed for 59 patients (antipsychotic medication plus psychosocial treatment: 28 [47.5%]; mean [SD] age, 19.5 [3.0] years; 15 men [53.6%]; placebo plus psychosocial treatment: 31 [52.5%]; mean [SD] age, 18.8 [2.7]; 16 men [51.6%]) and 27 control individuals (mean [SD] age, 21.9 [1.9] years). At baseline, patients showed widespread functional dysconnectivity compared with controls, with reductions predominantly affecting interactions between the default mode network, limbic systems, and the rest of the brain. From baseline to 3 months, patients receiving placebo showed increased FC principally within the same systems; some of these changes correlated with improved clinical outcomes (canonical correlation analysis R = 0.901; familywise error-corrected P = .005). Antipsychotic exposure was associated with increased FC primarily between the thalamus and the rest of the brain. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: In this secondary analysis of a clinical trial, antipsychotic-naive patients with FEP showed widespread functional dysconnectivity at baseline, followed by an early normalization of default mode network and cortical limbic dysfunction in patients receiving placebo and psychosocial intervention. Antipsychotic exposure was associated with FC changes concentrated on thalamocortical networks. TRIAL REGISTRATION: ACTRN12607000608460.
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    Association of Age, Antipsychotic Medication, and Symptom Severity in Schizophrenia With Proton Magnetic Resonance Spectroscopy Brain Glutamate Level A Mega-analysis of Individual Participant-Level Data
    Merritt, K ; McGuire, PK ; Egerton, A (AMER MEDICAL ASSOC, 2021-06)
    IMPORTANCE: Proton magnetic resonance spectroscopy (1H-MRS) studies indicate that altered brain glutamatergic function may be associated with the pathophysiology of schizophrenia and the response to antipsychotic treatment. However, the association of altered glutamatergic function with clinical and demographic factors is unclear. OBJECTIVE: To assess the associations of age, symptom severity, level of functioning, and antipsychotic treatment with brain glutamatergic metabolites. DATA SOURCES: The MEDLINE database was searched to identify journal articles published between January 1, 1980, and June 3, 2020, using the following search terms: MRS or magnetic resonance spectroscopy and (1) schizophrenia or (2) psychosis or (3) UHR or (4) ARMS or (5) ultra-high risk or (6) clinical high risk or (7) genetic high risk or (8) prodrome* or (9) schizoaffective. Authors of 114 1H-MRS studies measuring glutamate (Glu) levels in patients with schizophrenia were contacted between January 2014 and June 2020 and asked to provide individual participant data. STUDY SELECTION: In total, 45 1H-MRS studies contributed data. DATA EXTRACTION AND SYNTHESIS: Associations of Glu, Glu plus glutamine (Glx), or total creatine plus phosphocreatine levels with age, antipsychotic medication dose, symptom severity, and functioning were assessed using linear mixed models, with study as a random factor. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Glu, Glx, and Cr values in the medial frontal cortex (MFC) and medial temporal lobe (MTL). RESULTS: In total, 42 studies were included, with data for 1251 patients with schizophrenia (mean [SD] age, 30.3 [10.4] years) and 1197 healthy volunteers (mean [SD] age, 27.5 [8.8] years). The MFC Glu (F1,1211.9 = 4.311, P = .04) and Glx (F1,1079.2 = 5.287, P = .02) levels were lower in patients than in healthy volunteers, and although creatine levels appeared lower in patients, the difference was not significant (F1,1395.9 = 3.622, P = .06). In both patients and volunteers, the MFC Glu level was negatively associated with age (Glu to Cr ratio, F1,1522.4 = 47.533, P < .001; cerebrospinal fluid-corrected Glu, F1,1216.7 = 5.610, P = .02), showing a 0.2-unit reduction per decade. In patients, antipsychotic dose (in chlorpromazine equivalents) was negatively associated with MFC Glu (estimate, 0.10 reduction per 100 mg; SE, 0.03) and MFC Glx (estimate, -0.11; SE, 0.04) levels. The MFC Glu to Cr ratio was positively associated with total symptom severity (estimate, 0.01 per 10 points; SE, 0.005) and positive symptom severity (estimate, 0.04; SE, 0.02) and was negatively associated with level of global functioning (estimate, 0.04; SE, 0.01). In the MTL, the Glx to Cr ratio was positively associated with total symptom severity (estimate, 0.06; SE, 0.03), negative symptoms (estimate, 0.2; SE, 0.07), and worse Clinical Global Impression score (estimate, 0.2 per point; SE, 0.06). The MFC creatine level increased with age (estimate, 0.2; SE, 0.05) but was not associated with either symptom severity or antipsychotic medication dose. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: Findings from this mega-analysis suggest that lower brain Glu levels in patients with schizophrenia may be associated with antipsychotic medication exposure rather than with greater age-related decline. Higher brain Glu levels may act as a biomarker of illness severity in schizophrenia.
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    Differentiating the effect of antipsychotic medication and illness on brain volume reductions in first-episode psychosis: A Longitudinal, Randomised, Triple-blind, Placebo-controlled MRI Study
    Chopra, S ; Fornito, A ; Francey, SM ; O'Donoghue, B ; Cropley, V ; Nelson, B ; Graham, J ; Baldwin, L ; Tahtalian, S ; Yuen, HP ; Allott, K ; Alvarez-Jimenez, M ; Harrigan, S ; Sabaroedin, K ; Pantelis, C ; Wood, SJ ; McGorry, P (SPRINGERNATURE, 2021-07)
    Changes in brain volume are a common finding in Magnetic Resonance Imaging (MRI) studies of people with psychosis and numerous longitudinal studies suggest that volume deficits progress with illness duration. However, a major unresolved question concerns whether these changes are driven by the underlying illness or represent iatrogenic effects of antipsychotic medication. In this study, 62 antipsychotic-naïve patients with first-episode psychosis (FEP) received either a second-generation antipsychotic (risperidone or paliperidone) or a placebo pill over a treatment period of 6 months. Both FEP groups received intensive psychosocial therapy. A healthy control group (n = 27) was also recruited. Structural MRI scans were obtained at baseline, 3 months and 12 months. Our primary aim was to differentiate illness-related brain volume changes from medication-related changes within the first 3 months of treatment. We secondarily investigated long-term effects at the 12-month timepoint. From baseline to 3 months, we observed a significant group x time interaction in the pallidum (p < 0.05 FWE-corrected), such that patients receiving antipsychotic medication showed increased volume, patients on placebo showed decreased volume, and healthy controls showed no change. Across the entire patient sample, a greater increase in pallidal grey matter volume over 3 months was associated with a greater reduction in symptom severity. Our findings indicate that psychotic illness and antipsychotic exposure exert distinct and spatially distributed effects on brain volume. Our results align with prior work in suggesting that the therapeutic efficacy of antipsychotic medications may be primarily mediated through their effects on the basal ganglia.
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    Association between age of cannabis initiation and gray matter covariance networks in recent onset psychosis
    Penzel, N ; Antonucci, LA ; Betz, LT ; Sanfelici, R ; Weiske, J ; Pogarell, O ; Cumming, P ; Quednow, BB ; Howes, O ; Falkai, P ; Upthegrove, R ; Bertolino, A ; Borgwardt, S ; Brambilla, P ; Lencer, R ; Meisenzahl, E ; Rosen, M ; Haidl, T ; Kambeitz-Ilankovic, L ; Ruhrmann, S ; Salokangas, RRK ; Pantelis, C ; Wood, SJ ; Koutsouleris, N ; Kambeitz, J (SPRINGERNATURE, 2021-07)
    Cannabis use during adolescence is associated with an increased risk of developing psychosis. According to a current hypothesis, this results from detrimental effects of early cannabis use on brain maturation during this vulnerable period. However, studies investigating the interaction between early cannabis use and brain structural alterations hitherto reported inconclusive findings. We investigated effects of age of cannabis initiation on psychosis using data from the multicentric Personalized Prognostic Tools for Early Psychosis Management (PRONIA) and the Cannabis Induced Psychosis (CIP) studies, yielding a total sample of 102 clinically-relevant cannabis users with recent onset psychosis. GM covariance underlies shared maturational processes. Therefore, we performed source-based morphometry analysis with spatial constraints on structural brain networks showing significant alterations in schizophrenia in a previous multisite study, thus testing associations of these networks with the age of cannabis initiation and with confounding factors. Earlier cannabis initiation was associated with more severe positive symptoms in our cohort. Greater gray matter volume (GMV) in the previously identified cerebellar schizophrenia-related network had a significant association with early cannabis use, independent of several possibly confounding factors. Moreover, GMV in the cerebellar network was associated with lower volume in another network previously associated with schizophrenia, comprising the insula, superior temporal, and inferior frontal gyrus. These findings are in line with previous investigations in healthy cannabis users, and suggest that early initiation of cannabis perturbs the developmental trajectory of certain structural brain networks in a manner imparting risk for psychosis later in life.
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    Multimodal Machine Learning Workflows for Prediction of Psychosis in Patients With Clinical High-Risk Syndromes and Recent-Onset Depression
    Koutsouleris, N ; Dwyer, DB ; Degenhardt, F ; Maj, C ; Urquijo-Castro, MF ; Sanfelici, R ; Popovic, D ; Oeztuerk, O ; Haas, SS ; Weiske, J ; Ruef, A ; Kambeitz-Ilankovic, L ; Antonucci, LA ; Neufang, S ; Schmidt-Kraepelin, C ; Ruhrmann, S ; Penzel, N ; Kambeitz, J ; Haidl, TK ; Rosen, M ; Chisholm, K ; Riecher-Rossler, A ; Egloff, L ; Schmidt, A ; Andreou, C ; Hietala, J ; Schirmer, T ; Romer, G ; Walger, P ; Franscini, M ; Traber-Walker, N ; Schimmelmann, BG ; Fluckiger, R ; Michel, C ; Rossler, W ; Borisov, O ; Krawitz, PM ; Heekeren, K ; Buechler, R ; Pantelis, C ; Falkai, P ; Salokangas, RKR ; Lencer, R ; Bertolino, A ; Borgwardt, S ; Noethen, M ; Brambilla, P ; Wood, SJ ; Upthegrove, R ; Schultze-Lutter, F ; Theodoridou, A ; Meisenzahl, E (AMER MEDICAL ASSOC, 2021-02)
    IMPORTANCE: Diverse models have been developed to predict psychosis in patients with clinical high-risk (CHR) states. Whether prediction can be improved by efficiently combining clinical and biological models and by broadening the risk spectrum to young patients with depressive syndromes remains unclear. OBJECTIVES: To evaluate whether psychosis transition can be predicted in patients with CHR or recent-onset depression (ROD) using multimodal machine learning that optimally integrates clinical and neurocognitive data, structural magnetic resonance imaging (sMRI), and polygenic risk scores (PRS) for schizophrenia; to assess models' geographic generalizability; to test and integrate clinicians' predictions; and to maximize clinical utility by building a sequential prognostic system. DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS: This multisite, longitudinal prognostic study performed in 7 academic early recognition services in 5 European countries followed up patients with CHR syndromes or ROD and healthy volunteers. The referred sample of 167 patients with CHR syndromes and 167 with ROD was recruited from February 1, 2014, to May 31, 2017, of whom 26 (23 with CHR syndromes and 3 with ROD) developed psychosis. Patients with 18-month follow-up (n = 246) were used for model training and leave-one-site-out cross-validation. The remaining 88 patients with nontransition served as the validation of model specificity. Three hundred thirty-four healthy volunteers provided a normative sample for prognostic signature evaluation. Three independent Swiss projects contributed a further 45 cases with psychosis transition and 600 with nontransition for the external validation of clinical-neurocognitive, sMRI-based, and combined models. Data were analyzed from January 1, 2019, to March 31, 2020. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: Accuracy and generalizability of prognostic systems. RESULTS: A total of 668 individuals (334 patients and 334 controls) were included in the analysis (mean [SD] age, 25.1 [5.8] years; 354 [53.0%] female and 314 [47.0%] male). Clinicians attained a balanced accuracy of 73.2% by effectively ruling out (specificity, 84.9%) but ineffectively ruling in (sensitivity, 61.5%) psychosis transition. In contrast, algorithms showed high sensitivity (76.0%-88.0%) but low specificity (53.5%-66.8%). A cybernetic risk calculator combining all algorithmic and human components predicted psychosis with a balanced accuracy of 85.5% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 86.4%). In comparison, an optimal prognostic workflow produced a balanced accuracy of 85.9% (sensitivity, 84.6%; specificity, 87.3%) at a much lower diagnostic burden by sequentially integrating clinical-neurocognitive, expert-based, PRS-based, and sMRI-based risk estimates as needed for the given patient. Findings were supported by good external validation results. CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE: These findings suggest that psychosis transition can be predicted in a broader risk spectrum by sequentially integrating algorithms' and clinicians' risk estimates. For clinical translation, the proposed workflow should undergo large-scale international validation.