Medicine (St Vincent's) - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableModel Parameter Estimation As Features to Predict the Duration of Epileptic Seizures From Onset.(IEEE, 2023-07)The durations of epileptic seizures are linked to severity and risk for patients. It is unclear if the spatiotemporal evolution of a seizure has any relationship with its duration. Understanding such mechanisms may help reveal treatments for reducing the duration of a seizure. Here, we present a novel method to predict whether a seizure is going to be short or long at its onset using features that can be interpreted in the parameter space of a brain model. The parameters of a Jansen-Rit neural mass model were tracked given intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) signals, and were processed as time series features using MINIROCKET. By analysing 2954 seizures from 10 patients, patient-specific classifiers were built to predict if a seizure would be short or long given 7 s of iEEG at seizure onset. The method achieved an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) greater than 0.6 for five of 10 patients. The behaviour in the parameter space has shown different mechanisms are associated with short/long seizures.Clinical relevance-This shows that it is possible to classify whether a seizure will be short or long based on its early characteristics. Timely interventions and treatments can be applied if the duration of the seizures can be predicted.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableBrain model state space reconstruction using an LSTM neural network(IOP Publishing Ltd, 2023-06-01)Objective. Kalman filtering has previously been applied to track neural model states and parameters, particularly at the scale relevant to electroencephalography (EEG). However, this approach lacks a reliable method to determine the initial filter conditions and assumes that the distribution of states remains Gaussian. This study presents an alternative, data-driven method to track the states and parameters of neural mass models (NMMs) from EEG recordings using deep learning techniques, specifically a long short-term memory (LSTM) neural network.Approach. An LSTM filter was trained on simulated EEG data generated by a NMM using a wide range of parameters. With an appropriately customised loss function, the LSTM filter can learn the behaviour of NMMs. As a result, it can output the state vector and parameters of NMMs given observation data as the input.Main results. Test results using simulated data yielded correlations withRsquared of around 0.99 and verified that the method is robust to noise and can be more accurate than a nonlinear Kalman filter when the initial conditions of the Kalman filter are not accurate. As an example of real-world application, the LSTM filter was also applied to real EEG data that included epileptic seizures, and revealed changes in connectivity strength parameters at the beginnings of seizures.Significance. Tracking the state vector and parameters of mathematical brain models is of great importance in the area of brain modelling, monitoring, imaging and control. This approach has no need to specify the initial state vector and parameters, which is very difficult to do in practice because many of the variables being estimated cannot be measured directly in physiological experiments. This method may be applied using any NMM and, therefore, provides a general, novel, efficient approach to estimate brain model variables that are often difficult to measure.
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ItemPATIENT-SPECIFIC NEURAL MASS MODELING - STOCHASTIC AND DETERMINISTIC METHODS(WORLD SCIENTIFIC PUBL CO PTE LTD, 2013)Deterministic and stochastic methods for online state and parameter estimation for neural mass models are presented and applied to synthetic and real seizure electrocorticographic signals in order to determine underlying brain changes that cannot easily be measured. The first ever online estimation of neural mass model parameters from real seizure data is presented. It is shown that parameter changes occur that are consistent with expected brain changes underlying seizures, such as increases in postsynaptic potential amplitudes, increases in the inhibitory postsynaptic time-constant and decreases in the firing threshold at seizure onset, as well as increases in the firing threshold as the seizure progresses towards termination. In addition, the deterministic and stochastic estimation methods are compared and contrasted. This work represents an important foundation for the development of biologically-inspired methods to image underlying brain changes and to develop improved methods for neurological monitoring, control and treatment.
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ItemElectrical probing of cortical excitability in patients with epilepsy(ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE, 2011-12)Standard methods for seizure prediction involve passive monitoring of intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) in order to track the 'state' of the brain. This paper introduces a new method for measuring cortical excitability using an electrical probing stimulus. Electrical probing enables feature extraction in a more robust and controlled manner compared to passively tracking features of iEEG signals. The probing stimuli consist of 100 bi-phasic pulses, delivered every 10 min. Features representing neural excitability are estimated from the iEEG responses to the stimuli. These features include the amplitude of the electrically evoked potential, the mean phase variance (univariate), and the phase-locking value (bivariate). In one patient, it is shown how the features vary over time in relation to the sleep-wake cycle and an epileptic seizure. For a second patient, it is demonstrated how the features vary with the rate of interictal discharges. In addition, the spatial pattern of increases and decreases in phase synchrony is explored when comparing periods of low and high interictal discharge rates, or sleep and awake states. The results demonstrate a proof-of-principle for the method to be applied in a seizure anticipation framework. This article is part of a Supplemental Special Issue entitled The Future of Automated Seizure Detection and Prediction.
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ItemEnsembling crowdsourced seizure prediction algorithms using long-term human intracranial EEG(Wiley, 2020-02)Seizure prediction is feasible, but greater accuracy is needed to make seizure prediction clinically viable across a large group of patients. Recent work crowdsourced state‐of‐the‐art prediction algorithms in a worldwide competition, yielding improvements in seizure prediction performance for patients whose seizures were previously found hard to anticipate. The aim of the current analysis was to explore potential performance improvements using an ensemble of the top competition algorithms. The results suggest that minor increments in performance may be possible; however, the outcomes of statistical testing limit the confidence in these increments. Our results suggest that for the specific algorithms, evaluation framework, and data considered here, incremental improvements are achievable but there may be upper bounds on machine learning–based seizure prediction performance for some patients whose seizures are challenging to predict. Other more tailored approaches that, for example, take into account a deeper understanding of preictal mechanisms, patient‐specific sleep‐wake rhythms, or novel measurement approaches, may still offer further gains for these types of patients.
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ItemPostictal suppression and seizure durations: A patient-specific, long-term iEEG analysis(WILEY, 2018-05)OBJECTIVE: We report on patient-specific durations of postictal periods in long-term intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) recordings. The objective was to investigate the relationship between seizure duration and postictal suppression duration. METHODS: Long-term recording iEEG from 9 patients (>50 seizures recorded) were analyzed. In total, 2310 seizures were recorded during a total of 13.8 years of recording. Postictal suppression duration was calculated as the duration after seizure termination until total signal energy returned to background levels. The relationship between seizure duration and postictal suppression duration was quantified using the correlation coefficient (r). The effects of populations of seizures within patients, on correlations, were also considered. Populations of seizures within patients were distinguished by seizure duration thresholds and k-means clustering along the dimensions of seizure duration and postictal suppression duration. The effects of bursts of seizures were also considered by defining populations based on interseizure interval (ISI). RESULTS: Seizure duration accounted for 40% of postictal suppression duration variance, aggregated across all patients and seizures. Seizure duration accounted for more than 25% of the variance in postictal suppression duration in 2 patients and accounted for less than 25% in the remaining 7. In 3 patients, heat maps showed multiple distinct postictal patterns indicating multiple populations of seizures. When accounting for these populations, seizure duration accounted for less than 25% of the variance in postictal duration in all populations. Variance in postictal suppression duration accounted for less than 10% of ISI variance in all patients. SIGNIFICANCE: We have previously demonstrated that some patients have multiple seizure populations distinguishable by seizure duration. This article shows that different seizure populations have distinct and consistent postictal behaviors. The existence of multiple populations in some patients has implications for seizure management and forecasting, whereas the distinct postictal behaviors may have implications for sudden unexpected death in epilepsy (SUDEP) prediction and prevention.
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ItemSeizure likelihood varies with day-to-day variations in sleep duration in patients with refractory focal epilepsy: A longitudinal electroencephalography investigation(ELSEVIER, 2021-07)BACKGROUND: While the effects of prolonged sleep deprivation (≥24 h) on seizure occurrence has been thoroughly explored, little is known about the effects of day-to-day variations in the duration and quality of sleep on seizure probability. A better understanding of the interaction between sleep and seizures may help to improve seizure management. METHODS: To explore how sleep and epileptic seizures are associated, we analysed continuous intracranial electroencephalography (EEG) recordings collected from 10 patients with refractory focal epilepsy undergoing ordinary life activities between 2010 and 2012 from three clinical centres (Austin Health, The Royal Melbourne Hospital, and St Vincent's Hospital of the Melbourne University Epilepsy Group). A total of 4340 days of sleep-wake data were analysed (average 434 days per patient). EEG data were sleep scored using a semi-automated machine learning approach into wake, stages one, two, and three non-rapid eye movement sleep, and rapid eye movement sleep categories. FINDINGS: Seizure probability changes with day-to-day variations in sleep duration. Logistic regression models revealed that an increase in sleep duration, by 1·66 ± 0·52 h, lowered the odds of seizure by 27% in the following 48 h. Following a seizure, patients slept for longer durations and if a seizure occurred during sleep, then sleep quality was also reduced with increased time spent aroused from sleep and reduced rapid eye movement sleep. INTERPRETATION: Our results suggest that day-to-day deviations from regular sleep duration correlates with changes in seizure probability. Sleeping longer, by 1·66 ± 0·52 h, may offer protective effects for patients with refractory focal epilepsy, reducing seizure risk. Furthermore, the occurrence of a seizure may disrupt sleep patterns by elongating sleep and, if the seizure occurs during sleep, reducing its quality.
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ItemIdentifying seizure risk factors: A comparison of sleep, weather, and temporal features using a Bayesian forecast(WILEY, 2021-02)OBJECTIVE: Most seizure forecasting algorithms have relied on features specific to electroencephalographic recordings. Environmental and physiological factors, such as weather and sleep, have long been suspected to affect brain activity and seizure occurrence but have not been fully explored as prior information for seizure forecasts in a patient-specific analysis. The study aimed to quantify whether sleep, weather, and temporal factors (time of day, day of week, and lunar phase) can provide predictive prior probabilities that may be used to improve seizure forecasts. METHODS: This study performed post hoc analysis on data from eight patients with a total of 12.2 years of continuous intracranial electroencephalographic recordings (average = 1.5 years, range = 1.0-2.1 years), originally collected in a prospective trial. Patients also had sleep scoring and location-specific weather data. Histograms of future seizure likelihood were generated for each feature. The predictive utility of individual features was measured using a Bayesian approach to combine different features into an overall forecast of seizure likelihood. Performance of different feature combinations was compared using the area under the receiver operating curve. Performance evaluation was pseudoprospective. RESULTS: For the eight patients studied, seizures could be predicted above chance accuracy using sleep (five patients), weather (two patients), and temporal features (six patients). Forecasts using combined features performed significantly better than chance in six patients. For four of these patients, combined forecasts outperformed any individual feature. SIGNIFICANCE: Environmental and physiological data, including sleep, weather, and temporal features, provide significant predictive information on upcoming seizures. Although forecasts did not perform as well as algorithms that use invasive intracranial electroencephalography, the results were significantly above chance. Complementary signal features derived from an individual's historic seizure records may provide useful prior information to augment traditional seizure detection or forecasting algorithms. Importantly, many predictive features used in this study can be measured noninvasively.
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ItemForecasting cycles of seizure likelihood(Wiley, 2020-03-27)Objective Seizure unpredictability is rated as one of the most challenging aspects of living with epilepsy. Seizure likelihood can be influenced by a range of environmental and physiological factors that are difficult to measure and quantify. However, some generalizable patterns have been demonstrated in seizure onset. A majority of people with epilepsy exhibit circadian rhythms in their seizure times, and many also show slower, multiday patterns. Seizure cycles can be measured using a range of recording modalities, including self‐reported electronic seizure diaries. This study aimed to develop personalized forecasts from a mobile seizure diary app. Methods Forecasts based on circadian and multiday seizure cycles were tested pseudoprospectively using data from 50 app users (mean of 109 seizures per subject). Individuals' strongest cycles were estimated from their reported seizure times and used to derive the likelihood of future seizures. The forecasting approach was validated using self‐reported events and electrographic seizures from the Neurovista dataset, an existing database of long‐term electroencephalography that has been widely used to develop forecasting algorithms. Results The validation dataset showed that forecasts of seizure likelihood based on self‐reported cycles were predictive of electrographic seizures for approximately half the cohort. Forecasts using only mobile app diaries allowed users to spend an average of 67.1% of their time in a low‐risk state, with 14.8% of their time in a high‐risk warning state. On average, 69.1% of seizures occurred during high‐risk states and 10.5% of seizures occurred in low‐risk states. Significance Seizure diary apps can provide personalized forecasts of seizure likelihood that are accurate and clinically relevant for electrographic seizures. These results have immediate potential for translation to a prospective seizure forecasting trial using a mobile diary app. It is our hope that seizure forecasting apps will one day give people with epilepsy greater confidence in managing their daily activities.
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ItemCritical slowing down as a biomarker for seizure susceptibility.(Nature Research (part of Springer Nature), 2020-05-01)The human brain has the capacity to rapidly change state, and in epilepsy these state changes can be catastrophic, resulting in loss of consciousness, injury and even death. Theoretical interpretations considering the brain as a dynamical system suggest that prior to a seizure, recorded brain signals may exhibit critical slowing down, a warning signal preceding many critical transitions in dynamical systems. Using long-term intracranial electroencephalography (iEEG) recordings from fourteen patients with focal epilepsy, we monitored key signatures of critical slowing down prior to seizures. The metrics used to detect critical slowing down fluctuated over temporally long scales (hours to days), longer than would be detectable in standard clinical evaluation settings. Seizure risk was associated with a combination of these signals together with epileptiform discharges. These results provide strong validation of theoretical models and demonstrate that critical slowing down is a reliable indicator that could be used in seizure forecasting algorithms.