Computing and Information Systems - Theses
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ItemMachine learning for feedback in massive open online courses( 2016)Massive Open Online Courses (MOOCs) have received widespread attention for their potential to scale higher education, with multiple platforms such as Coursera, edX and Udacity recently appearing. Online courses from elite universities around the world are offered for free, so that anyone with internet access can learn anywhere. Enormous enrolments and diversity of students have been widely observed in MOOCs. Despite their popularity, MOOCs are limited in reaching their full potential by a number of issues. One of the major problems is the notoriously low completion rates. A number of studies have focused on identifying the factors leading to this problem. One of the factors is the lack of interactivity and support. There is broad agreement in the literature that interaction and communication play an important role in improving student learning. It has been indicated that interaction in MOOCs helps students ease their feelings of isolation and frustration, develop their own knowledge, and improve learning experience. A natural way of improving interactivity is providing feedback to students on their progress and problems. MOOCs give rise to vast amounts of student engagement data, bringing opportunities to gain insights into student learning and provide feedback. This thesis focuses on applying and designing new machine learning algorithms to assist instructors in providing student feedback. In particular, we investigate three main themes: i) identifying at-risk students not completing courses as a step towards timely intervention; ii) exploring the suitability of using automatically discovered forum topics as instruments for modelling students' ability; iii) similarity search in heterogeneous information networks. The first theme can be helpful for assisting instructors to design interventions for at-risk students to improve retention. The second theme is inspired by recent research on measurement of student learning in education research communities. Educators explore the suitability of using latent complex patterns of engagement instead of traditional visible assessment tools (e.g. quizzes and assignments), to measure a hypothesised distinctive and complex learning skill of promoting learning in MOOCs. This process is often human-intensive and time-consuming. Inspired by this research, together with the importance of MOOC discussion forums for understanding student learning and providing feedback, we investigate whether students' participation across forum discussion topics can indicate their academic ability. The third theme is a generic study of utilising the rich semantic information in heterogeneous information networks to help find similar objects. MOOCs contain diverse and complex student engagement data, which is a typical example of heterogeneous information networks, and so could benefit from this study. We make the following contributions for solving the above problems. Firstly, we propose transfer learning algorithms based on regularised logistic regression, to identify students who are at risk of not completing courses weekly. Predicted probabilities with well-calibrated and smoothed properties can not only be used for the identification of at-risk students but also for subsequent interventions. We envision an intervention that presents probability of success/failure to borderline students with the hypothesis that they can be motivated by being classified as "nearly there". Secondly, we combine topic models with measurement models to discover topics from students' online forum postings. The topics are enforced to fit measurement models as statistical evidence of instruments for measuring student ability. In particular, we focus on two measurement models, the Guttman scale and the Rasch model. To the best our knowledge, this is the first study to explore the suitability of using discovered topics from MOOC forum content as instruments for measuring student ability, by combining topic models with psychometric measurement models in this way. Furthermore, these scaled topics imply a range of difficulty levels, which can be useful for monitoring the health of a course and refining curricula, student assessment, and providing personalised feedback based on student ability levels and topic difficulty levels. Thirdly, we extend an existing meta path-based similarity measure by incorporating transitive similarity and temporal dynamics in heterogeneous information networks, evaluated using the DBLP bibliographic network. The proposed similarity measure might apply to MOOC settings to find similar students or threads, or thread recommendation in MOOC forums, by modelling student interactions in MOOC forums as a heterogeneous information network.
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ItemCluster validation and discovery of multiple clusterings( 2016)Cluster analysis is an important unsupervised learning process in data analysis. It aims to group data objects into clusters, so that the data objects in the same group are more similar and the data objects in different groups are more dissimilar. There are many open challenges in this area. In this thesis, we focus on two: discovery of multiple clusterings and cluster validation. Many clustering methods focus on discovering one single ‘best’ solution from the data. However, data can be multi-faceted in nature. Particularly when datasets are large and complex, there may be several useful clusterings existing in the data. In addition, users may be seeking different perspectives on the same dataset, requiring multiple clustering solutions. Multiple clustering analysis has attracted considerable attention in recent years and aims to discover multiple reasonable and distinctive clustering solutions from the data. Many methods have been proposed on this topic and one popular technique is meta-clustering. Meta-clustering explores multiple reasonable and distinctive clusterings by analyzing a large set of base clusterings. However, there may exist poor quality and redundant base clustering which will affect the generation of high quality and diverse clustering views. In addition, the generated clustering views may not all be relevant. It will be time and energy consuming for users to check all the returned solutions. To tackle these problems, we propose a filtering method and a ranking method to achieve higher quality and more distinctive clustering solutions. Cluster validation refers to the procedure of evaluating the quality of clusterings, which is critical for clustering applications. Cluster validity indices (CVIs) are often used to quantify the quality of clusterings. They can be generally classified into two categories: external measures and internal measures, which are distinguished in terms of whether or not external information is used during the validation procedure. In this thesis, we focus on external cluster validity indices. There are many open challenges in this area. We focus two of them: (a) CVIs for fuzzy clusterings and, (b) Bias issues for CVIs. External CVIs are often used to quantify the quality of a clustering by comparing it against the ground truth. Most external CVIs are designed for crisp clusterings (one data object only belongs to one single cluster). How to evaluate the quality of soft clusterings (one data object can belong to more than one cluster) is a challenging problem. One common way to achieve this is by hardening a soft clustering to a crisp clustering and then evaluating it using a crisp CVI. However, hardening may cause information loss. To address this problem, we generalize a class of popular information-theoretic based crisp external CVIs to directly evaluate the quality of soft clusterings, without the need for a hardening step. There is an implicit assumption when using external CVIs for evaluating the quality of a clustering, that is, they work correctly. However, if this assumption does not hold, then misleading results might occur. Thus, identifying and understanding the bias behaviors of external CVIs is crucial. Along these lines, we identify novel bias behaviors of external CVIs and analyze the type of bias both theoretically and empirically.
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ItemA bit-vector solver based on word-level propagation( 2016)Reasoning with bit-vectors arises in a variety of applications in verification and cryptography. Michel and Van Hentenryck have proposed an interesting approach to bit-vector constraint propagation on the word level. Most of the operations are propagated in constant time, assuming the bit-vector fits in a machine word. In contrast, bit-vector SMT solvers usually solve bit-vector problems by bit-blasting, that is, mapping the resulting operations to conjunctive normal form clauses, and using SAT technology to solve them. This also means generating intermediate variables which can be an advantage, as these can be searched on and learnt about. Since each approach has advantages it is important to see whether we can benefit from these advantages by using a word-level propagation approach with learning. In this dissertation, we describe an approach to bit-vector solving using word-level propagation with learning. We provide alternative word-level propagators to Michel and Van Hentenryck, and we evaluate the variants of the approach empirically. We also experiment with different approaches to learning and back-jumping in the solver. Based on the insights gained, we propose a portfolio solver using machine learning which can enhance state-of-the-art solvers. We show that, with careful engineering, a word-level propagation based approach can compete with (or complement) bit-blasting.
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ItemVolatility homogenisation and machine learning for time series forecasting( 2016)Volatility homogenisation is a technique of looking at a process at regular points in space. In other words, we are only interested when the process moves by a certain quantum. The intuition and empirical evidence behind this is that we ignore smaller movements which are just noise, while only concerning ourselves with larger movements which represent the information from the underlying process. In this vein, we have derived theoretical results showing volatility homogenisation as a means of estimating the drift and volatility of theoretical processes and verify these results by simulation. This demonstrates the ability of a “homogenised” process to retain salient information regarding the underlying process. Volatility homogenisation is then coupled, as a preprocessing step, with various machine learning techniques which yields greater forecasting accuracy than when the machine learning techniques are used without volatility homogenisation preprocessing. In addition to this, we develop volatility homogenisation kernels for machine learning kernel-based techniques such as support vector machines, relevance vector machines and Gaussian processes for machine learning. The volatility homogenisation kernel causes a kernel-based machine learning technique to utilise volatility homogenisation internally and, with it, obtain better predictions on forecasting the direction of a financial time series. In order to create and use the volatility homogenisation kernel, we have developed a solution to the problem of a kernel taking inputs which have dimensions of differing size while still maintaining a convex solution to the model for techniques such as support vector machines, for a given set of parameters. Furthermore, we have demonstrated the efficacy of volatility homogenisation as a way of successfully investing using a Kelly criterion strategy. The strategy makes use of the information inherent in a support vector machine model which uses a volatility homogenisation kernel in order to calculate the necessary parameters for the Kelly betting strategy. We also develop strategies which select additional features for the support vector machine through the use of a nearest neighbour strategy using various measures of association. Overall, volatility homogenisation is a robust strategy for the decomposition of a process which allows various machine learning techniques to discern the main driving process inherent in a financial time series, which leads to better forecasts and investment strategies.