Melbourne Medical School Collected Works - Research Publications
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ItemAssessing fitness-for-purpose and comparing the suitability of COVID-19 multi-country models for local contexts and users(F1000 Research Ltd, 2021-05-12)Background: Mathematical models have been used throughout the COVID-19 pandemic to inform policymaking decisions. The COVID-19 Multi-Model Comparison Collaboration (CMCC) was established to provide country governments, particularly low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), and other model users with an overview of the aims, capabilities and limits of the main multi-country COVID-19 models to optimise their usefulness in the COVID-19 response. Methods: Seven models were identified that satisfied the inclusion criteria for the model comparison and had creators that were willing to participate in this analysis. A questionnaire, extraction tables and interview structure were developed to be used for each model, these tools had the aim of capturing the model characteristics deemed of greatest importance based on discussions with the Policy Group. The questionnaires were first completed by the CMCC Technical group using publicly available information, before further clarification and verification was obtained during interviews with the model developers. The fitness-for-purpose flow chart for assessing the appropriateness for use of different COVID-19 models was developed jointly by the CMCC Technical Group and Policy Group. Results: A flow chart of key questions to assess the fitness-for-purpose of commonly used COVID-19 epidemiological models was developed, with focus placed on their use in LMICs. Furthermore, each model was summarised with a description of the main characteristics, as well as the level of engagement and expertise required to use or adapt these models to LMIC settings. Conclusions: This work formalises a process for engagement with models, which is often done on an ad-hoc basis, with recommendations for both policymakers and model developers and should improve modelling use in policy decision making.
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ItemAntibiotic Prescription in Veterinary Consultations in Bhutan: A Retrospective Cross-Sectional Study(FRONTIERS MEDIA SA, 2021-05-28)The veterinary prescription of antibiotics in low- and middle-income countries (LMIC) remains largely undocumented. In Bhutan, however, the national veterinary service keeps records of their activities and prescriptions, which offer an opportunity to establish a benchmark to assess the use of these agents in this and other LMIC. A cross-sectional retrospective study was designed and 2,266 handwritten veterinary records from 2017 were sampled from 23 animal health premises (AHPs) to estimate individual and an overall proportion of consultations that resulted in an antibiotic prescription. The frequency of antibiotic prescription per species, type of AHP, and according to WHO's AWaRe index and OIE list of priority antimicrobials were also explored. It was estimated that 31% (95% confidence interval: 29-33%; intracluster correlation: 0.03) of the veterinary consultations resulted in an antibiotic prescription. The incidence of antibiotic prescription was highest in consultations of poultry across AHP. Across species, diarrhea and wounds were frequently treated with broad-spectrum antibiotics including sulfonamides, tetracyclines, trimethoprim + sulfa, and penicillin. Between 45% and 70% antibiotics prescribed correspond to AWaRe's access group and up to 25% to AWaRe's watch group. Over 70% of antibiotics dispensed in veterinary consultations for any species correspond to the OIE's veterinary critically important antimicrobial agents. Overall, the study demonstrated positive features of veterinary antimicrobial stewardship in Bhutan, given the conservative proportion of consultation that results in this type of prescription and the type of antibiotic prescribed. Although the veterinary service closely follows the Bhutanese Standard Treatment Guidelines, the prescription of antibiotics to key species should be closely monitored. Our study suggests that further improvements of antibiotic stewardship can be achieved through standardisation of antibiotic prescription to some species, a revision of the guidelines toward reducing the prescription of antibiotics of high relevance for human medicine, and by including details of clinical investigation, use of tests, and treatment outcomes in veterinary consultation records.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableAssessing the risk of spread of COVID-19 to the Asia Pacific region( 2020)During the early stages of an emerging disease outbreak, governments are required to make critical decisions on how to respond appropriately, despite limited data being available to inform these decisions. Analytical risk assessment is a valuable approach to guide decision-making on travel restrictions and border measures during the early phase of an outbreak, when transmission is primarily contained within a source country. Here we introduce a modular framework for estimating the importation risk of an emerging disease when the direct travel route is restricted and the risk stems from indirect importation via intermediary countries. This was the situation for Australia in February 2020. The framework was specifically developed to assess the importation risk of COVID-19 into Australia during the early stages of the outbreak from late January to mid-February 2020. The dominant importation risk to Australia at the time of analysis was directly from China, as the only country reporting uncontained transmission. However, with travel restrictions from mainland China to Australia imposed from February 1, our framework was designed to consider the importation risk from China into Australia via potential intermediary countries in the Asia Pacific region. The framework was successfully used to contribute to the evidence base for decisions on border measures and case definitions in the Australian context during the early phase of COVID-19 emergence and is adaptable to other contexts for future outbreak response.
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ItemModelling the impact of COVID-19 in Australia to inform transmission reducing measures and health system preparedness( 2020)
ABSTRACT
Background
The ability of global health systems to cope with increasing numbers of COVID-19 cases is of major concern. In readiness for this challenge, Australia has drawn on clinical pathway models developed over many years in preparation for influenza pandemics. These models have been used to estimate health care requirements for COVID-19 patients, in the context of broader public health measures.Methods
An age and risk stratified transmission model of COVID-19 infection was used to simulate an unmitigated epidemic with parameter ranges reflecting uncertainty in current estimates of transmissibility and severity. Overlaid public health measures included case isolation and quarantine of contacts, and broadly applied social distancing. Clinical presentations and patient flows through the Australian health care system were simulated, including expansion of available intensive care capacity and alternative clinical assessment pathways.Findings
An unmitigated COVID-19 epidemic would dramatically exceed the capacity of the Australian health system, over a prolonged period. Case isolation and contact quarantine alone will be insufficient to constrain case presentations within a feasible level of expansion of health sector capacity. Overlaid social restrictions will need to be applied at some level over the course of the epidemic to ensure that systems do not become overwhelmed, and that essential health sector functions, including care of COVID-19 patients, can be maintained. Attention to the full pathway of clinical care is needed to ensure access to critical care.Interpretation
Reducing COVID-19 morbidity and mortality will rely on a combination of measures to strengthen and extend public health and clinical capacity, along with reduction of overall infection transmission in the community. Ongoing attention to maintaining and strengthening the capacity of health care systems and workers to manage cases is needed.Funding
Australian Government Department of Health Office of Health Protection, Australian Government National Health and Medical Research Council