Chancellery Research - Research Publications

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Now showing 1 - 7 of 7
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    You'll never walk alone: Childhood influences and male career path clusters
    Anyadike-Danes, M ; McVicar, D (ELSEVIER, 2005-08)
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    Panel estimates of the determinants of British regional male incapacity benefits rolls 1998-2006
    McVicar, D ; Anyadike-Danes, M (ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2010)
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    Has the Boom in Incapacity Benefit Claimant Numbers Passed Its Peak?
    Anyadike-Danes, M ; McVicar, D (WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC, 2008-12)
    Abstract Just over 2.5 million people of working age were on the incapacity benefit register in Great Britain in 2006, twice as many as 15 years earlier, and we explore the factors contributing to that huge growth. Using a simple model linking ‘inflow’ to the size of the register via a pair of persistence parameters (‘short’ and ‘long’ term), we show that the principal driver of numbers up to the mid‐1990s was inflow, but since then it has been the steep rise in ‘average duration’ from below four to more than six years. For women the lengthening time on the register mainly reflects a rise in short‐term persistence (survival on the register from one to two years), whilst for men the increase in long‐term persistence (survival on the register after two years) was more important. We also use the model to discuss the likelihood that the British government will achieve its target of reducing incapacity benefit numbers by 1 million by 2016.
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    Choice of contracts in the British National Health Service: An empirical study
    Chalkley, M ; McVicar, D (ELSEVIER, 2008-09)
    Following major reforms of the British National Health Service (NHS) in 1990, the roles of purchasing and providing health services were separated, with the relationship between purchasers and providers governed by contracts. Using a mixed multinomial logit analysis, we show how this policy shift led to a selection of contracts that is consistent with the predictions of a simple model, based on contract theory, in which the characteristics of the health services being purchased and of the contracting parties influence the choice of contract form. The paper thus provides evidence in support of the practical relevance of theory in understanding health care market reform.
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    Does Job Search Monitoring Intensity Affect Unemployment? Evidence from Northern Ireland
    McVicar, D (WILEY-BLACKWELL PUBLISHING, INC, 2010-04)
    Because unemployment benefit reforms typically package together a number of changes, few existing evaluations have been able to isolate the effects of changes in job search monitoring intensity on benefit recipient stocks or flows. Those few studies that do so draw mixed conclusions. This paper provides new estimates of monitoring impacts by exploiting plausibly exogenous periods where search monitoring has been temporarily withdrawn – with the regime otherwise unchanged – during a series of benefit office refurbishments in Northern Ireland. As we would expect from search theory, withdrawal of monitoring significantly increases the stock of unemployment benefit recipients via reduced outflows.