Critical Care - Research Publications
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ItemComparing the Clinical Frailty Scale and an International Classification of Diseases-10 Modified Frailty Index in Predicting Long-Term Survival in Critically Ill Patients.(Ovid Technologies (Wolters Kluwer Health), 2022-10)UNLABELLED: The Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) is the most used frailty measure in intensive care unit (ICU) patients. Recently, the modified frailty index (mFI), derived from 11 comorbidities has also been used. It is unclear to what degree the mFI is a true measure of frailty rather than comorbidity. Furthermore, the mFI cannot be freely obtained outside of specific proprietary databases. OBJECTIVE: To compare the performance of CFS and a recently developed International Classification of Diseases-10 (ICD-10) mFI (ICD-10mFI) as frailty-based predictors of long-term survival for up to 1 year. DESIGN: A retrospective multicentric observational study. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: All adult (≥16 yr) critically ill patients with documented CFS scores admitted to sixteen Australian ICUs in the state of Victoria between April 1, 2017 to June 30, 2018 were included. We used probabilistic methods to match de-identified ICU admission episodes listed in the Australia and New Zealand Intensive Care Society Adult Patient Database with the Victorian Admission Episode Dataset and the Victorian Death Index via the Victorian Data Linkage Centre. MAIN OUTCOMES AND MEASURES: The primary outcome was the longest available survival following ICU admission. We compared CFS and ICD-10mFI as primary outcome predictors, after adjusting for key confounders. RESULTS: The CFS and ICD-10mFI were compared in 7,001 ICU patients. The proportion of patients categorized as frail was greater with the CFS than with the ICD-10mFI (18.9% [n = 1,323] vs. 8.8% [n = 616]; p < 0.001). The median (IQR) follow-up time was 165 (82-276) days. The CFS predicted long-term survival up to 6 months after adjusting for confounders (hazard ratio [HR] = 1.26, 95% CI, 1.21-1.31), whereas ICD-10mFI did not (HR = 1.04, 95% CI, 0.98-1.10). The ICD-10mFI weakly correlated with the CFS (Spearman's rho = 0.22) but had a poor agreement (kappa = 0.06). The ICD-10mFI more strongly correlated with the Charlson comorbidity index (Spearman's rho 0.30) than CFS (Spearman's rho = 0.25) (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: CFS, but not ICD-10mFI, predicted long-term survival in ICU patients. ICD-10mFI correlated with co-morbidities more than CFS. These findings suggest that CFS and ICD-10mFI are not equivalent. RELEVANCE: CFS and ICD-10mFI are not equivalent in screening for frailty in critically ill patients and therefore ICD-10mFI in its current form should not be used.
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ItemImpact of frailty on persistent critical illness: a population-based cohort study(SPRINGER, 2022-03)PURPOSE: Acute illness severity predicts mortality in intensive care unit (ICU) patients, however, its predictive value decreases over time in ICU. Typically after 10 days, pre-ICU (antecedent) characteristics become more predictive of mortality, defining the onset of persistent critical illness (PerCI). How patient frailty affects development and death from PerCI is unknown. METHODS: We conducted a secondary analysis of data from a prospective binational cohort study including 269,785 critically ill adults from 168 ICUs in Australia and New Zealand, investigating whether frailty measured with the Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) changes the timing of onset and risk of developing PerCI and of subsequent in-hospital mortality. We assessed associations between frailty (CFS ≥ 5) and mortality prediction using logistic regression and area under the receiver operating characteristics (AUROC) curves. RESULTS: 2190 of 50,814 (4.3%) patients with frailty (CFS ≥ 5) versus 6624 of 218,971 (3%) patients without frailty (CFS ≤ 4) developed PerCI (P < 0.001). Among patients with PerCI, 669 of 2190 (30.5%) with frailty and 1194 of 6624 without frailty (18%) died in hospital (P < 0.001). The time point defining PerCI onset did not vary with frailty degree; however, with increasing length of ICU stay, inclusion of frailty progressively improved mortality discrimination (0.1% AUROC improvement on ICU day one versus 3.6% on ICU day 17). CONCLUSION: Compared to patients without frailty, those with frailty have a higher chance of developing and dying from PerCI. Moreover the importance of frailty as a predictor of mortality increases with ICU length of stay. Future work should explore incorporation of frailty in prognostic models, particularly for long-staying patients.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableLong-term Survival of Critically Ill Patients Stratified According to Pandemic Triage Categories A Retrospective Cohort Study(ELSEVIER, 2021-08)BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has led to unprecedented demand for ICUs, with the need to triage admissions along with the development of ICU triage criteria. However, how these criteria relate to outcomes in patients already admitted to the ICU is unknown, as is the incremental ICU capacity that triage of these patients might create given existing admission practices. RESEARCH QUESTION: What is the short- and long-term survival of low- vs high-priority patients for ICU admission according to current pandemic triage criteria? STUDY DESIGN AND METHODS: This study analyzed prospectively collected registry data (2007-2018) in 23 ICUs in Victoria, Australia, with probabilistic linkage with death registries. After excluding elective surgery, admissions were stratified according to existing ICU triage protocol prioritization as low (age ≥ 85 years, or severe chronic illness, or Sequential Organ Failure Assessment [SOFA] score = 0 or ≥ 12), medium (SOFA score = 8-11) or high (SOFA score = 1-7) priority. The primary outcome was long-term survival. Secondary outcomes were in-hospital mortality, ICU length of stay (LOS) and bed-day usage. RESULTS: This study examined 126,687 ICU admissions. After 5 years of follow-up, 1,093 of 3,296 (33%; 95% CI, 32-34) of "low-priority" patients aged ≥ 85 years or with severe chronic illness and 86 of 332 (26%; 95% CI, 24-28) with a SOFA score ≥ 12 were still alive. Sixty-three of 290 (22%; 95% CI, 17-27) of patients in these groups followed up for 10 years were still alive. Together, low-priority patients accounted for 27% of all ICU bed-days and had lower in-hospital mortality (22%) than the high-priority patients (28%). Among nonsurvivors, low-priority admissions had shorter ICU LOS than medium- or high-priority admissions. INTERPRETATION: Current SOFA score or age or severe comorbidity-based ICU pandemic triage protocols exclude patients with a close to 80% hospital survival, a > 30% five-year survival, and 27% of ICU bed-day use. These findings imply the need for stronger evidence-based ICU triage protocols.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableFrailty and outcomes from pneumonia in critical illness: a population-based cohort study(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2020-11-01)Background A threshold Clinical Frailty Scale (CFS) of 5 (indicating mild frailty) has been proposed to guide ICU admission for UK patients with coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pneumonia. However, the impact of frailty on mortality with (non-COVID-19) pneumonia in critical illness is unknown. We examined the triage utility of the CFS in patients with pneumonia requiring ICU. Methods We conducted a retrospective cohort study of adult patients admitted with pneumonia to 170 ICUs in Australia and New Zealand from January 1, 2018 to September 31, 2019. We classified patients as: non-frail (CFS 1–4) frail (CFS 5–8), mild/moderately frail (CFS 5–6),and severe/very severely frail (CFS 7–8). We evaluated mortality (primary outcome) adjusting for site, age, sex, mechanical ventilation, pneumonia type and illness severity. We also compared the proportion of ICU bed-days occupied between frailty categories. Results 1852/5607 (33%) patients were classified as frail, including1291/3056 (42%) of patients aged >65 yr, who would potentially be excluded from ICU admission under UK-based COVID-19 triage guidelines. Only severe/very severe frailty scores were associated with mortality (adjusted odds ratio [aOR] for CFS=7: 3.2; 95% confidence interval [CI]: 1.3–7.8; CFS=8 [aOR: 7.2; 95% CI: 2.6–20.0]). These patients accounted for 7% of ICU bed days. Vulnerability (CFS=4) and mild frailty (CFS=5) were associated with a similar mortality risk (CFS=4 [OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 0.7–3.8]; CFS=5 [OR: 1.6; 95% CI: 0.7–3.9]). Conclusions Patients with severe and very severe frailty account for relatively few ICU bed days as a result of pneumonia, whilst adjusted mortality analysis indicated little difference in risk between patients in vulnerable, mild, and moderate frailty categories. These data do not support CFS ≥5 to guide ICU admission for pneumonia.