Critical Care - Research Publications
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ItemLaboratory-derived early warning score for the prediction of in-hospital mortality, intensive care unit admission, medical emergency team activation and cardiac arrest in general medical wards(WILEY, 2021-05)BACKGROUND: General medical wards admit a varied cohort of patients from the emergency department, some of whom deteriorate during their hospital stay. Currently, we use vital signs based warning scores to predict patients at risk of imminent deterioration, but there is now a growing body of literature that commonly available laboratory results may also help to identify those at risk. AIM: To assess whether a laboratory-based admission score can predict in hospital mortality, intensive care unit (ICU) admission, medical emergency team (MET) activation or cardiac arrest in a cohort of Australian general medical patients admitted through the emergency department (ED). METHODS: We performed a retrospective observational study of all general medical admissions to hospital through the ED in 2015. Admission pathology was used to calculate a risk score. In-patient outcomes of death, ICU transfer, MET call activation or cardiac arrest were collected from hospital records. RESULTS: We studied 2942 admissions derived from 2521 patients, with a median age of 81 years. There were 143 in-patient deaths, 82 ICU admissions, 277 MET calls and 14 cardiac arrest calls. The laboratory-based admission score had an area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC-ROC) of 0.76 (95% confidence interval (CI): 0.72-0.80) for inpatient death, an AUC-ROC of 0.79 (95% CI: 0.66-0.93) for inpatient cardiac arrest, an AUC-ROC of 0.64 (95% CI: 0.58-0.70) for ICU transfer and an AUC-ROC of 0.59 (95% CI: 0.55-0.62) for MET call activation. When patients aged over 75 were analysed separately, the AUC-ROC for prediction of in-patient death was 0.74 (95% CI: 0.70-0.78) and increased to 0.86 (95% CI: 0.73-0.98) for the prediction of in-patient cardiac arrest. CONCLUSION: A simple laboratory-derived score obtained at patient admission is a fair to good predictor of subsequent in-patient death or cardiac arrest in general medical patients and in the older patient cohort. Prospective interventional studies are required to ascertain the clinical utility of this admission score.
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ItemInpatient HbA1c testing: a prospective observational study(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2015-01)OBJECTIVE: To use admission inpatient glycated hemoglobin (HbA1c) testing to help investigate the prevalence of unrecognized diabetes, the cumulative prevalence of unrecognized and known diabetes, and the prevalence of poor glycemic control in both. Moreover, we aimed to determine the 6-month outcomes for these patients. Finally, we aimed to assess the independent association of diabetes with these outcomes. RESEARCH DESIGN AND METHODS: Prospective observational cohort study conducted in a tertiary hospital in Melbourne, Australia. PATIENTS: A cohort of 5082 inpatients ≥54 years admitted between July 2013 and January 2014 underwent HbA1c measurement. A previous diagnosis of diabetes was obtained from the hospital medical record. Patient follow-up was extended to 6 months. RESULTS: The prevalence of diabetes (known and unrecognized) was 34%. In particular, we identified that unrecognized but HbA1c-confirmed diabetes in 271 (5%, 95% CI 4.7% to 6.0%) patients, previously known diabetes in 1452 (29%, 95% CI 27.3% to 29.8%) patients; no diabetes in 3359 (66%, 95% CI 64.8-67.4%) patients. Overall 17% (95% CI 15.3% to 18.9%) of patients with an HbA1c of >6.5% had an HbA1c ≥8.5%. After adjusting for age, gender, Charlson Index score, estimated glomerular filtration rate, and hemoglobin levels, with admission unit treated as a random effect, patients with previously known diabetes had lower 6-month mortality (OR 0.69, 95% CI 0.56 to 0.87, p=0.001). However, there were no significant differences in proportions of intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation or readmission within 6 months between the 3 groups. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately one-third of all inpatients ≥54 years of age admitted to hospital have diabetes of which about 1 in 6 was previously unrecognized. Moreover, poor glycemic control was common. Proportions of intensive care unit admission, mechanical ventilation, or readmission were similar between the groups. Finally, diabetes was independently associated with lower 6-month mortality.