Engineering and Information Technology Collected Works - Research Publications

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    Modelling and simulating retail management practices: a first approach
    Siebers, PO ; Aickelin, U ; Celia, H ; Clegg, CW (Inderscience Publishers, 2009)
    Context: The vaccine distribution for the coronavirus disease of 2019 (COVID-19) is a multicriteria decision-making (MCDM) problem based on three issues, namely, identification of different distribution criteria, importance criteria and data variation. Thus, the Pythagorean fuzzy decision by opinion score method (PFDOSM) for prioritising vaccine recipients is the correct approach because it utilises the most powerful MCDM ranking method. However, PFDOSM weighs the criteria values of each alternative implicitly, which is limited to explicitly weighting each criterion. In view of solving this theoretical issue, the fuzzy-weighted zeroinconsistency (FWZIC) can be used as a powerful weighting MCDM method to provide explicit weights for a criteria set with zero inconstancy. However, FWZIC is based on the triangular fuzzy number that is limited in solving the vagueness related to the aforementioned theoretical issues. Objectives: This research presents a novel homogeneous Pythagorean fuzzy framework for distributing the COVID-19 vaccine dose by integrating a new formulation of the Pythagorean fuzzy-weighted zero-inconsistency (PFWZIC) and PFDOSM methods. Methods: The methodology is divided into two phases. Firstly, an augmented dataset was generated that included 300 recipients based on five COVID-19 vaccine distribution criteria (i.e., vaccine recipient memberships, chronic disease conditions, age, geographic location severity and disabilities). Then, a decision matrix was constructed on the basis of an intersection of the ‘recipients list’ and ‘COVID-19 distribution criteria’. Then, the MCDM methods were integrated. An extended PFWZIC was developed, followed by the development of PFDOSM. Results: (1) PFWZIC effectively weighted the vaccine distribution criteria. (2) The PFDOSM-based group prioritisation was considered in the final distribution result. (3) The prioritisation ranks of the vaccine recipients were subject to a systematic ranking that is supported by high correlation results over nine scenarios of the changing criteria weights values. A comparison with previous work also proved the efficiency of the proposed framework. Conclusion: The findings of this study are expected to contribute to ensuring equitable protection against COVID-19 and thus help accelerate vaccine progress worldwide.
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    A Method for Evaluating Options for Motif Detection in Electricity Meter Data
    Dent, I ; Craig, T ; Aickelin, U ; Rodden, T (School of Statistics, Renmin University of China, 2018)
    Investigation of household electricity usage patterns, and matching the patterns to behaviours, is an important area of research given the centrality of such patterns in addressing the needs of the electricity industry. Additional knowledge of household behaviours will allow more effective targeting of demand side management (DSM) techniques. This paper addresses the question as to whether a reasonable number of meaningful motifs, that each represent a regular activity within a domestic household, can be identified solely using the household level electricity meter data. Using UK data collected from several hundred households in Spring 2011 monitored at a frequency of five minutes, a process for finding repeating short patterns (motifs) is defined. Different ways of representing the motifs exist and a qualitative approach is presented that allows for choosing between the options based on the number of regular behaviours detected (neither too few nor too many).
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    Tailored RF Pulse for Magnetization Inversion at Ultrahigh Field
    Hurley, AC ; Al-Radaideh, A ; Bai, L ; Aickelin, U ; Coxon, R ; Glover, P ; Gowland, PA (WILEY, 2010-01)
    The radiofrequency (RF) transmit field is severely inhomogeneous at ultrahigh field due to both RF penetration and RF coil design issues. This particularly impairs image quality for sequences that use inversion pulses such as magnetization prepared rapid acquisition gradient echo and limits the use of quantitative arterial spin labeling sequences such as flow-attenuated inversion recovery. Here we have used a search algorithm to produce inversion pulses tailored to take into account the heterogeneity of the RF transmit field at 7 T. This created a slice selective inversion pulse that worked well (good slice profile and uniform inversion) over the range of RF amplitudes typically obtained in the head at 7 T while still maintaining an experimentally achievable pulse length and pulse amplitude in the brain at 7 T. The pulses used were based on the frequency offset correction inversion technique, as well as time dilation of functions, but the RF amplitude, frequency sweep, and gradient functions were all generated using a genetic algorithm with an evaluation function that took into account both the desired inversion profile and the transmit field inhomogeneity.
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    A Component-Based Heuristic Search Method with Evolutionary Eliminations for Hospital Personnel Scheduling
    Li, J ; Aickelin, U ; Burke, EK (INFORMS, 2009-06-01)
    Nurse rostering is a complex scheduling problem that affects hospital personnel on a daily basis all over the world. This paper presents a new component-based approach with evolutionary eliminations for a nurse scheduling problem arising at a major UK hospital. The main idea behind this technique is to decompose a schedule into its components (i.e., the allocated shift pattern of each nurse), and then to implement two evolutionary elimination strategies mimicking natural selection and the natural mutation process on these components, respectively, to iteratively deliver better schedules. The worthiness of all components in the schedule has to be continuously demonstrated for them to remain there. This demonstration employs an evaluation function that evaluates how well each component contributes toward the final objective. Two elimination steps are then applied: the first elimination removes a number of components that are deemed not worthy to stay in the current schedule; the second elimination may also throw out, with a low level of probability, some worthy components. The eliminated components are replenished with new ones using a set of constructive heuristics using local optimality criteria. Computational results using 52 data instances demonstrate the applicability of the proposed approach in solving real-world problems.
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    Investigating Mathematical Models of Immuno-Interactions with Early-Stage Cancer under an Agent-Based Modelling Perspective
    Figueredo, GP ; Siebers, P-O ; Aickelin, U (BioMed Central, 2013)
    Many advances in research regarding immuno-interactions with cancer were developed with the help of ordinary differential equation (ODE) models. These models, however, are not effectively capable of representing problems involving individual localisation, memory and emerging properties, which are common characteristics of cells and molecules of the immune system. Agent-based modelling and simulation is an alternative paradigm to ODE models that overcomes these limitations. In this paper we investigate the potential contribution of agent-based modelling and simulation when compared to ODE modelling and simulation. We seek answers to the following questions: Is it possible to obtain an equivalent agent-based model from the ODE formulation? Do the outcomes differ? Are there any benefits of using one method compared to the other? To answer these questions, we have considered three case studies using established mathematical models of immune interactions with early-stage cancer. These case studies were re-conceptualised under an agent-based perspective and the simulation results were then compared with those from the ODE models. Our results show that it is possible to obtain equivalent agent-based models (i.e. implementing the same mechanisms); the simulation output of both types of models however might differ depending on the attributes of the system to be modelled. In some cases, additional insight from using agent-based modelling was obtained. Overall, we can confirm that agent-based modelling is a useful addition to the tool set of immunologists, as it has extra features that allow for simulations with characteristics that are closer to the biological phenomena.
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    Using Simulation to Incorporate Dynamic Criteria into Multiple Criteria Decision Making
    Aickelin, U ; Reps, JM ; Siebers, P-O ; Li, P (Taylor & Francis, 2017)
    In this paper, we present a case study demonstrating how dynamic and uncertain criteria can be incorporated into a multicriteria analysis with the help of discrete event simulation. The simulation guided multicriteria analysis can include both monetary and non-monetary criteria that are static or dynamic, whereas standard multi criteria analysis only deals with static criteria and cost benefit analysis only deals with static monetary criteria. The dynamic and uncertain criteria are incorporated by using simulation to explore how the decision options perform. The results of the simulation are then fed into the multicriteria analysis. By enabling the incorporation of dynamic and uncertain criteria, the dynamic multiple criteria analysis was able to take a unique perspective of the problem. The highest ranked option returned by the dynamic multicriteria analysis differed from the other decision aid techniques. The results suggest that dynamic multiple criteria analysis may be highly suitable for decisions that require long-term evaluation, as this is often when uncertainty is introduced.
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    Modelling cyber-security experts' decision making processes using aggregation operators
    Miller, S ; Wagner, C ; Aickelin, U ; Garibaldi, JM (ELSEVIER ADVANCED TECHNOLOGY, 2016-09)
    An important role carried out by cyber-security experts is the assessment of proposed computer systems, during their design stage. This task is fraught with difficulties and uncertainty, making the knowledge provided by human experts essential for successful assessment. Today, the increasing number of progressively complex systems has led to an urgent need to produce tools that support the expert-led process of system-security assessment. In this research, we use weighted averages (WAs) and ordered weighted averages (OWAs) with evolutionary algorithms (EAs) to create aggregation operators that model parts of the assessment process. We show how individual overall ratings for security components can be produced from ratings of their characteristics, and how these individual overall ratings can be aggregated to produce overall rankings of potential attacks on a system. As well as the identification of salient attacks and weak points in a prospective system, the proposed method also highlights which factors and security components contribute most to a component’s difficulty and attack ranking respectively. A real world scenario is used in which experts were asked to rank a set of technical attacks, and to answer a series of questions about the security components that are the subject of the attacks. The work shows how finding good aggregation operators, and identifying important components and factors of a cyber-security problem can be automated. The resulting operators have the potential for use as decision aids for systems designers and cyber-security experts, increasing the amount of assessment that can be achieved with the limited resources available.