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    Bold Strategy or Irrational Exuberance: Can China's Fiscal Foundation Support the Belt and Road Initiative?
    Wong, C ; Fingar, T ; Oi, J (Stanford University Press, 2020)
    This chapter examines the economic rationale and finances of the Belt and Road Initiative, a signature program in Xi Jinping's assertive foreign policy that aims to build multidimensional networks linking more than sixty countries and costing trillions of dollars. The BRI was conceived during the decade-long fiscal expansion that began at the turn of the century, and the question is whether it remains affordable under slower growth. At this stage in its development, China must manage the program prudently to avoid saddling banks with bad loans from failed projects. As ever, the decentralized system remains the Achilles' heel, reflected in the gap between official statements of expenditure and figures compiled from bank lending and program announcements. Recent fiscal reforms have strengthened the government's ability to rein in local governments but provide little protection against risks from an overly ambitious foreign policy agenda.
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    Public policy for a modernising China: The challenge of providing universal access to education under fiscal decentralisation
    Wong, C ; Dougherty, S ; Kim, J (OECD, 2019)
    One of the key inequalities in China today is the divide between urban residents with local registration (hukou) and those without. This chapter examines the historical and systemic causes of this divide between the hukou and non-hukou populations, focusing on the provision of basic education. The limited access to urban schooling for the children of rural migrants is a divisive issue in the debate on citizenship and social rights of migrants, and one with adverse implications for labour markets and intergenerational mobility. This chapter uses the provision of basic education to illustrate how fiscal decentralisation in China – under particular historical circumstances, produced a divisive, rather than inclusive growth outcome. Moreover, even though education policies have shifted over the past two decades to calling for inclusiveness, their impact has to date remained limited, leaving the government with an inequality it does not want and finding very difficult to reverse.
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    More Sticks and Fewer Carrots? Looking Ahead to Implementation of Environmental Policy Under the ‘New Normal’
    Wong, C ; Stavins, RN ; Stowe, R (Belfer Center, Harvard Kennedy School for Science and International Affairs, 2020-02)
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    Managing across levels of government: The challenge of pension reform in China
    Wong, C ; Yuan, R ; Kim, J ; Dougherty, S (OECD, 2020)
    The People’s Republic of China is facing a “population ageing tsunami”, with the share of the population aged over 65 expected to double between 2010 and 2030. Reforming the social security system to improve coverage, sustainability and equity is an urgent task for the government. This chapter examines the workings of the Urban Employee Scheme (UES), the main pension programme currently covering more than 400 million workers and retirees. Although nominally a national programme, the UES is a patchwork of pension pools, managed mostly at the city and county levels. Under fragmented management and weak oversight, the system is rife with underpayment and evasion and has stymied previous efforts by the central government to promote consolidation. This may finally change under top-down reforms implemented since 2013 that have strengthened governance and enforcement capacity. Improving equity and the long-term sustainability of the UES will also require extending coverage to younger migrant workers and strengthening their incentives for participation.
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    Fiscal reform in the Xi Jinping era and the state of local public finance
    Wong, C (East Asian Institute, NUS, 2021-07-09)