Economics - Theses
Permanent URI for this collection
Search Results
1 - 3 of 3
-
ItemStudies in business cycles and macroeconomics( 2018)This thesis comprises three self-contained chapters. Each chapter is linked through the common motivation of understanding fluctuations in aggregate economic activity. Sectors with higher separation rates have a larger response in their vacancy yield when aggregate vacancies vary. Chapter 2 constructs series of labour search models to investigate the link between separation rates and vacancy yield. The analysis shows that the separation rate does not affect the vacancy yield elasticity. In turn, productivity and vacancy creation costs, which are correlated with the separation rate, are considered. It is shown that these two variables can account for the observed relationship between the vacancy yield elasticity and separation rates. Aggregate macroeconomic series display asymmetries in different phases of the business cycle. Peaks are sharp and quick, while troughs are protracted and relatively flat. The past literature has attributed this asymmetry to firm level frictions. Chapter 3 takes a sectoral view, investigating sectoral turning points and sectoral growth rates around aggregate and sectoral turning point dates. It is shown that more sectors are contracting around the aggregate peak date than are expanding around the aggregate trough date. Furthermore, sectors do not display asymmetry in their growth rates around their own turning points dates. These two findings go some way to explaining the observed asymmetry around aggregate turning point dates. The Chapter also shows that input-output linkages play an important role in determining the timing of an industry's turning point dates. Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in Australia is published two months after the end of the reference quarter. This delay presents a significant challenge for policy makers who must make decisions in real-time. Chapter 4 assesses the ability of different data-sets to now-cast Australian GDP, and anticipate discrete economic events. Particular attention is paid to business and household surveys, and how these datasets fair against a benchmark auto-regressive (AR) model and a factor augmented vector-auto-regression (FVAR) model. The results show that the FVAR model generates the most accurate point now-casts, however, the survey models are still useful when they signal GDP growth rates that are less frequent.
-
ItemThree essays on skilled migration to Australia( 2018)This thesis contains three essays on diverse aspects of skilled migration in Australia. The first chapter uses novel administrative data to analyse the extent of out-migration for Australian permanent migrants across different skill measures and cohorts using survival data methods. The use of this dataset reduces estimation biases inherent in cross-sectional or panel datasets used in previous studies. This study finds that migrants from high-income countries are more likely to out-migrate than those from low-income countries. The analyses also indicate that out-migration is sensitive to the business cycle, as measured by the unemployment rate. However, out-migration is the highest for high-skilled migrants, with every year of education increases the hazard rate by around 4 percent. Moreover, migrants targeted by skill-based policies are more likely to leave. These results, therefore, highlight challenges in retaining skilled migrants recruited through points-based policies. The second chapter uses linked administrative and panel datasets to study associations between skilled temporary worker flows and the labour market outcomes of Australian workers. It finds no statistically significant negative effect of such migration on the either their wages or unemployment. However, the analysis reports a positive association between the wages of workers with a bachelor’s degree or above and skilled temporary worker flows. Further analysis studies how temporary migration induces occupational switching. Highlighting a possible channel through which immigration affects labour market outcomes, our results indicate that such migration induces Australian workers to specialise in communication skills. Focussing on a specific high-skilled occupation, medical practitioners, the third chapter enhances empirical evidence on policies aimed at resolving rural workforce shortages by evaluating the impact of the Districts of Workforce Shortage program, which restricts International Medical Graduates (IMGs) to under-served rural and remote areas of Australia. The analysis uses a difference-in-differences design to find that the program is effective at reducing the growth of inequality in affected regions. It also studies changes in medical workforce outcomes to finds a corresponding fall in workload measures, such as working hours or waiting times. However, no robust evidence of a fall in price measures, such as consultation fees or bulk billing rates, is observed. Last, there is suggestive evidence that the fall in workload, particularly in hours, is higher for IMGs. This finding highlights possible imperfect substitutability of natives and migrants even in narrow occupational groups.
-
ItemWork timing arrangements in Australia in the 1990s: evidence from the Australian Time Use Survey( 2004-01)The timing of work over the day or week is fundamental to the nature of paid work and the interaction between work and leisure. However, due to data limitations, little research has been done on the timing of work in Australia. The Australian Time Use Survey, conducted nationally by the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) in 1992 and 1997, provides a unique opportunity to examine actual work timing arrangements in the Australian workforce. (For complete abstract open document)