Economics - Theses
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ItemInvariance in decision theory( 1973)Broadly speaking this thesis is concerned with the principle of invariance in statistics. We explore its decision theoretic basis in order to provide increased insight into statistical decision problems. To meet this end, a variant of the generalised Hunt-Stein theorem is presented. This variant is valid under quite liberal conditions and circumvents some of the restrictions imposed by previous researchers. The main points of the thesis may be listed in more detail as follows: (i) In chapter 1 we describe the general background and introduce some preliminary results that are needed later. The view is taken that minimax rules are 'usually' equalizer rules (Theorem (1.1.1)). This supports the suspicion that the minimax rule is among the invariant rules (corollary 2 of Lemma (1.2.1)). (ii) In chapter 2 we give details of an interval estimation problem which falls within the framework of Kiefer [39], Kudo [42) and Wesler's [69] general considerations but does not satisfy their regularity conditions. (iii) In chapter 3 we develop a variant of the generalised Hunt-Stein theorem. Some of the concepts are apparently novel, but are strongly suggested by the natural approach of extending the theory. We also investigate the notion of an 'asymptotically invariant least favourable sequence', briefly mentioning how this sequence may be used to develop the theory. (iv) Finally in chapter 4 we present some interesting results on the relationship between invariance and admissibility. These results suggest conditions for the admissibility or inadmissibility of best invariant rules.
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ItemExport credit insurance schemes and manufactured exports with particular reference to Australia 1960-1972( 1975)Credit insurance, which may be regarded as a part of casualty insurance, is a means of reducing the risk in credit operations, whether for domestic or overseas transactions. The terms “insurance” and "guarantee" are often used interchangeabley. For example, in Australia there is the Export Payments Insurance Corporation, and the counterpart organisation in the United Kingdom is the Export Credits Guarantee Department. The second half of the 19th century saw attempts by private companies in Europe to apply insurance principles to credit risks (domestic or domestic and export credit risks). But most were destined to failure because they considered it their duty not only to meet the claims of their clients but also to come to their financial assistance, so failing to distinguish between the function of insurance and banking. In Britain, Australia played a part in developing export credit insurance as it is now known when financial difficulties in Australia in the 1890's made British merchants shipping goods to Australia lose confidence in bills drawn on their Australian buyers. This led to a demand for insurance to cover the export credit risks. The few companies that were formed to meet this demand failed because they underwrote too many export risks and carried the whole of the loss, thereby giving the insured no inducement to limit his commitments. The risks in foreign trade covered by these private companies in the 19th century were only commercial risks with political risks excluded because of their large potential losses. Commercial risks refer to the financial position of the importer and his ability to meet the debts when due, whilst political risks relate to factors beyond the control of the importer, such as war in his country, which prevent payment. The reasons for the failure of credit insurance in Britain were not lost on Mr. Cuthbert Heath, a member of Lloyd's, and it was he who formulated the two basic principles upon which credit insurance (whether domestic or overseas) is now based. These were: (1) the risks covered must be a genuine average of all risks; and (2) cover should not be provided for the whole of the credit risk. He appeared on the credit insurance scene near the end of the 19th century, although it was not until 1903 that the Excess Insurance Company, established by him in 1894, commenced underwriting credit insurance. (From Introduction)
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ItemThe supply and demand for electricity in Australia: a theoretical and empirical study for the years 1953 to 1971( 1975)This thesis considers some theoretical aspects of supply planning and undertakes empirical analyses of both demand and supply behaviour in the Australian electricity industry over the period 1953 to 1971. The research strategy reflects the way in which an economic adviser to an electricity authority might organize his work. The initial step is to spotlight three important areas for analysis: the link between demand and supply provided by cost and price signals; the planning of supply capacity to meet demand targets; and, finally, the forecasting and empirical analysis of demand. Part I of the thesis considers a traditionally important field of electricity economics - optimal pricing. Several tariff schemes suggested by economists and engineers are surveyed in conjunction with the reasoning behind them. Extensive tariff data, especially collected for the thesis, is then compared with reported costs (roughly in running and capital cost categories) to discover the extent to which theoretical tariff principles have been observable in practice. The empirical results suggest an imperfect use of theoretical tariff principles. This finding clearly prompts several questions: e.g. are there significant costs in non-optimal tariff formulation; is the peak loading problem sensitive in practice to tariff manipulation? The empirical studies carried out in Chapters IV and V suggest there are significant measurable costs of resource misallocation and that peaks in the load could well be significantly varied by tariff manipulation. Part II of the thesis is a detailed theoretical analysis of investment planning in electricity supply to meet specified demand targets at minimum total system cost in present worth terms. This analysis is set in the context of the celebrated model of Ralph Turvey (see bibliography); his principal models are examined and criticised; a survey of the background literature is given beginning with the classic article of Hotelling on depreciation. Subsequent chapters present a practical formulation of an electricity capacity planning problem for the Australian situation and a detailed survey and critique of the idea of "dynamic marginal cost". Part III of the thesis turns to the demand side. A thorough empirical study (using a variety of models of demand) is carried out for the residential sector and it suggests the usefulness of a model that simultaneously models the demand for the services of a stock of consumer durables and the demand for electricity as an input to the process of generating those services. Attention is also paid to traditional methods of measuring price elasticity of electricity demand. Finally, the industrial and commercial sectors come under scrutiny and the tariff data especially collected for the experiments reported in part I are used to test and compare conventional "average revenue" and the more theoretically correct "marginal price" methods for calculating price elasticity of demand. This concludes the study. A more detailed summary appears as Chapter XIV of the thesis.
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ItemRailways and the development of Victoria, 1860-1900( 1973)This thesis attempts to assess the role of the railways in the economic development of Victoria in the nineteenth century. Although both forward and backward linkages are examined the main emphasis is on the forward linkage effects of the provision of railway services and reductions in freight rates. Considerable attention is devoted to the criteria used in formulating railway tariff policies. Throughout the nineteenth century railway managers were expected to operate the railways without incurring deficits but at the same time there were constant pressures, from both within and outside parliament, for railways to play a developmental role regardless of revenue considerations. There was no satisfactory resolution of the conflict between the rating criteria, and consequently railway rate adjustments tended to be ad hoc political responses to changing economic and social circumstances. In Victoria the railways were built and operated by the state and in a very real way they served as the instrument for the implementation of the social philosophy of the community. This was particularly so in regard to the development of agriculture and the railways were an essential complement to the land legislation which aimed at settling a considerable agricultural population in the countryside. Not only did the railways provide the essential transport infrastructure for an export orientated economy, but the extension of lines and downward adjustments of freight rates helped agriculture to remain viable during a long period of falling prices and declining yields. The railways exercised a considerable influence over the geographical pattern of economic activity in Victoria. In particular the differential rating system stimulated the growth of processing industries and commercial activity in Melbourne to the detriment of the inland towns. Preferential rates were used to attract the Riverina trade to Melbourne and in some cases were consciously used to favour metropolitan over provincial manufacturers. By providing an efficient and cheap transport system which served nearly every part of the colony the Victorian railways played an indispensible role in the economic development of Victoria in the nineteenth century. Railway investment and rating policies served the economic and social aspirations of the people then and provided the basis for further continuing development.
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ItemThe growth and development of the Commissioners' Savings Banks in Victoria 1875-1900( 1973)I have chosen the years 1875-1900 in the history of the Commissioners’ Saving Banks in Victoria (forerunners of the State Savings Bank) because this short span contained so many momentous events in Australian banking history, and it is tempting to fit the institution into the overall picture, but also because it embraced the second major period of expansion of the network of offices, and saw a dramatic change in the role and function of the Savings Bank. The previous period of expansion had occurred largely as the result of the discovery of gold in the 1850s and the need for saving facilities in country districts. It had come to an end because of the Commissioners’ inability to satisfy the requests for further Savings Banks with the limited resources at their disposal. This inability led them to suggest the establishment of post office savings bank facilities, with the expectation, it has been claimed that these new offices be entrusted to their supervision. This was not to be so but the commissioners nevertheless welcomed the new system as providing a satisfactory means of reaching the small saver in all the settled areas of the colony and relieving them of the costly obligation of opening further offices. From 1862 until 1879, therefore, no addition to the existing network of Banks was contemplated and this period quite clearly separates and defines the two periods of expansion. The second expansionary phase, with which we are about to deal, was a largely metropolitan one and therefore entirely different from its predecessor. It was essentially part of that remarkable period in Victorian economic history, the 1880s and 1890s, during which there was so much expansion in Melbourne in the fields of construction and public transport, but also in the realms of finance. Much has been written about the various other financial organisations that grew and proliferated as a result of the very extensive overseas borrowing and the buoyancy of the export market for the colony’s staples, but the savings banks have largely been neglected. This is surprising for they were well established in eastern Australia before the 1880s and played a not insignificant role in the events of the two decades prior to 1900. In Melbourne, particularly, the path pursued by the Commissioners’ Savings Banks so closely paralleled the course of economic events that it is possible to gain considerable insight into the manner in which ordinary business decision were influenced by and contributed to the cumulative optimism of the boom and, conversely, how they collectively accentuated the rigours of the ensuing depression.