Architecture, Building and Planning - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableFEEDBACK trial - A randomised control trial to investigate the effect of personalised feedback and financial incentives on reducing the incidence of road crashes(BMC, 2023-10-18)BACKGROUND: Road crashes continue to pose a significant threat to global health. Young drivers aged between 18 and 25 are over-represented in road injury and fatality statistics, especially the first six months after obtaining their license. This study is the first multi-centre two-arm parallel-group individually randomised controlled trial (the FEEDBACK Trial) that will examine whether the delivery of personalised driver feedback plus financial incentives is superior to no feedback and no financial incentives in reducing motor vehicle crashes among young drivers (18 to 20 years) during the first year of provisional licensing. METHODS: A total of 3,610 young drivers on their provisional licence (P1, the first-year provisional licensing) will participate in the trial over 28 weeks, including a 4-week baseline, 20-week intervention and 4-week post-intervention period. The primary outcome of the study will be police-reported crashes over the 20-week intervention period and the 4-week post-intervention period. Secondary outcomes include driving behaviours such as speeding and harsh braking that contribute to road crashes, which will be attained weekly from mobile telematics delivered to a smartphone app. DISCUSSION: Assuming a positive finding associated with personalised driver feedback and financial incentives in reducing road crashes among young drivers, the study will provide important evidence to support policymakers in introducing the intervention(s) as a key strategy to mitigate the risks associated with the burden of road injury among this vulnerable population. TRIAL REGISTRATION: Registered under the Australian New Zealand Clinical Trials Registry (ANZCTR) - ACTRN12623000387628p on April 17, 2023.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA systematic scoping review of methods for estimating link-level bicycling volumes(TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2023-07-04)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableLearning With a Supervisor Who has Traffic Offences and Young Driver Crashes: The DRIVE Study 13-Year Follow-Up.(Elsevier BV, 2023-11)PURPOSE: Young learner drivers commonly must record substantial supervised practice driving before independent licensure. Supervisory driver requirements can be limited or highly regulated, yet research is lacking on the effectiveness of different approaches. The current objective was to explore whether young drivers who were mostly supervised by someone who they perceived had traffic offences versus no offences had different crash records over a period of 13 years postlicensing. METHODS: DRIVE is an Australian prospective cohort study of more than 20,000 drivers who were aged 17-24 years and newly licensed during 2003-2004. They completed detailed baseline questionnaires, including whether the person they identified as supervising their learner driving the most had perceived traffic offences in the past 12 months. Responses were linked to their state crash, hospitalization, and death records to 2016. A parametric survival model was created to calculate hazard ratios of time to crash for those reporting that their supervisor had 0 versus 1 and 0 versus 2+ perceived offences, adjusting for the participants' prior crash history and other covariates. RESULTS: After adjusting for covariates, 369 participants reporting supervisory drivers with 2+ perceived offences, compared to 15,451 participants reporting no such offences, had up to 1.67 (95% confidence interval 1.10-2.53 at 6 months) times the rate of any crash for the first 2.5 years and up to 2.01 (95% confidence interval 1.26-3.19 at 3.5 years) times the rate of crashes resulting in injury for 5.5 years. DISCUSSION: Although overall supervision by a driver with two or more perceived offences was low, further attention is needed to ensure improved supervised driving experiences, with mentoring programs and professional instructor partnerships worthy of exploration.
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ItemReconsidering the Safety in Numbers Effect for Vulnerable Road Users: An Application of Agent-Based Modeling(Taylor and Francis Group, 2015)OBJECTIVE: Increasing levels of active transport provide benefits in relation to chronic disease and emissions reduction but may be associated with an increased risk of road trauma. The safety in numbers (SiN) effect is often regarded as a solution to this issue; however, the mechanisms underlying its influence are largely unknown. We aimed to (1) replicate the SiN effect within a simple, simulated environment and (2) vary bicycle density within the environment to better understand the circumstances under which SiN applies. METHODS: Using an agent-based modeling approach, we constructed a virtual transport system that increased the number of bicycles from 9% to 35% of total vehicles over a period of 1,000 time units while holding the number of cars in the system constant. We then repeated this experiment under conditions of progressively decreasing bicycle density. RESULTS: We demonstrated that the SiN effect can be reproduced in a virtual environment, closely approximating the exponential relationships between cycling numbers and the relative risk of collision as shown in observational studies. The association, however, was highly contingent upon bicycle density. The relative risk of collisions between cars and bicycles with increasing bicycle numbers showed an association that is progressively linear at decreasing levels of density. CONCLUSIONS: Agent-based modeling may provide a useful tool for understanding the mechanisms underpinning the relationships previously observed between volume and risk under the assumptions of SiN. The SiN effect may apply only under circumstances in which bicycle density also increases over time. Additional mechanisms underpinning the SiN effect, independent of behavioral adjustment by drivers, are explored.
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ItemC3-IoC: A Career Guidance System for Assessing Student Skills using Machine Learning and Network Visualisation.(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2022-12-01)UNLABELLED: Artificial Intelligence in Education (AIED) has witnessed significant growth over the last twenty-five years, providing a wide range of technologies to support academic, institutional, and administrative services. More recently, AIED applications have been developed to prepare students for the workforce, providing career guidance services for higher education. However, this remains challenging, especially concerning the rapidly changing labour market in the IT sector. In this paper, we introduce an AI-based solution named C3-IoC (https://c3-ioc.co.uk), which intends to help students explore career paths in IT according to their level of education, skills and prior experience. The C3-IoC presents a novel similarity metric method for relating existing job roles to a range of technical and non-technical skills. This also allows the visualisation of a job role network, placing the student within communities of job roles. Using a unique knowledge base, user skill profiling, job role matching, and visualisation modules, the C3-IoC supports students in self-evaluating their skills and understanding how they relate to emerging IT jobs. SUPPLEMENTARY INFORMATION: The online version contains supplementary material available at 10.1007/s40593-022-00317-y.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableAcculturation and risk of traffic crashes in young Asian-born Australian drivers.(BMJ, 2023-02)The study examines changes over time in crash risk differences between young Australian drivers born in Asia and those born in Australia.Data from the 2003 baseline survey of the DRIVE cohort of 20 806 young drivers aged 17-24 years were linked to police, hospital and death data up until 2016. The association between country of birth and crash was investigated using flexible parametric survival models adjusted for confounders.Six months after baseline, the crash risk in Asian-born drivers was less than half that of their Australian-born counterparts (mean HR, MHR 0.41; 95% CI 0.29 to 0.57), only to increase steadily over time to resemble that of Australian-born drivers 13 years later (MHR 0.94; 95% CI 0.66 to 1.36).This is likely to be associated with acculturation and the adoption by young Asian-born Australian drivers of driving behaviour patterns akin to those born locally. This needs to be considered in future road safety campaigns.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableSelf-harm in adolescence and risk of crash: a 13-year cohort study of novice drivers in New South Wales, Australia.(BMJ, 2023-08)INTRODUCTION: Self-harm and suicide are leading causes of morbidity and death for young people, worldwide. Previous research has identified self-harm is a risk factor for vehicle crashes, however, there is a lack of long-term crash data post licensing that investigates this relationship. We aimed to determine whether adolescent self-harm persists as crash risk factor in adulthood. METHODS: We followed 20 806 newly licensed adolescent and young adult drivers in the DRIVE prospective cohort for 13 years to examine whether self-harm was a risk factor for vehicle crashes. The association between self-harm and crash was analysed using cumulative incidence curves investigating time to first crash and quantified using negative binominal regression models adjusted for driver demographics and conventional crash risk factors. RESULTS: Adolescents who reported self-harm at baseline were at increased risk of crashes 13 years later than those reporting no self-harm (relative risk (RR) 1.29: 95% CI 1.14 to 1.47). This risk remained after controlling for driver experience, demographic characteristics and known risk factors for crashes, including alcohol use and risk taking behaviour (RR 1.23: 95% CI 1.08 to 1.39). Sensation seeking had an additive effect on the association between self-harm and single-vehicle crashes (relative excess risk due to interaction 0.87: 95% CI 0.07 to 1.67), but not for other types of crashes. DISCUSSION: Our findings add to the growing body of evidence that self-harm during adolescence predicts a range of poorer health outcomes, including motor vehicle crash risks that warrant further investigation and consideration in road safety interventions. Complex interventions addressing self-harm in adolescence, as well as road safety and substance use, are critical for preventing health harming behaviours across the life course.
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ItemExtreme environmental temperatures and motorcycle crashes: a time-series analysis(SPRINGER HEIDELBERG, 2022-10)Extreme temperature could affect traffic crashes by influencing road safety, vehicle performance, and drivers' behavior and abilities. Studies evaluating the impacts of extreme temperatures on the risk of traffic crashes have mainly overlooked the potential role of vehicle air conditioners. The aim of this study, therefore, was to evaluate the effect of exposure to extreme cold and hot temperatures on seeking medical attention due to motorcycle crashes. The study was conducted in Iran by using medical attendance for motorcycle crashes from March 2011 to June 2017. Data on daily minimum, mean and maximum temperature (°C), relative humidity (%), wind velocity (km/h), and precipitation (mm/day) were collected. We developed semi-parametric generalized additive models following a quasi-Poisson distribution with the distributed nonlinear lag model to estimate the immediate and lagged associations (reported as relative risk [RR], and 95% confidence interval [CI]). Between March 2011 and June 2017, 36,079 medical attendances due to motorcycle road traffic crashes were recorded (15.8 ± 5.92 victims per day). In this time period, the recorded temperature ranged from -11.2 to 45.4 °C (average: 25.5 ± 11.0 °C). We found an increased risk of medical attendance for motorcycle crashes (based on maximum daily temperature) at both extremely cold (1st percentile) and hot (99th percentile) temperatures and also hot (75th percentile) temperatures, mainly during lags 0 to 3 days (e.g., RR: 1.12 [95% CI: 1.05: 1.20]; RR: 1.08 [95% CI: 1.01: 1.16]; RR: 1.20 [95% CI: 1.09: 1.32] at lag0 for extremely cold, hot, and extremely hot conditions, respectively). The risk estimates for extremely hot temperatures were larger than hot and extremely cold temperatures. We estimated that 11.01% (95% CI: 7.77:14.06) of the medical attendance for motorcycle crashes is estimated to be attributable to non-optimal temperature (using mean temperature as exposure variable). Our findings have important public health messaging, given the considerable burden associated with road traffic injury, particularly in low- and middle-income countries.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableIsolating the impacts of urban form and fabric from geography on urban heat and human thermal comfort(Elsevier, 2022-10-01)Public health risks resulting from urban heat in cities are increasing due to rapid urbanisation and climate change, motivating closer attention to urban heat mitigation and adaptation strategies that enable climate-sensitive urban design and development. These strategies incorporate four key factors influencing heat stress in cities: the urban form (morphology of vegetated and built surfaces), urban fabric, urban function (including human activities), and background climate and regional geographic settings (e.g. topography and distance to water bodies). The first two factors can be modified and redesigned as urban heat mitigation strategies (e.g. changing the albedo of surfaces, replacing hard surfaces with pervious vegetated surfaces, or increasing canopy cover). Regional geographical settings of cities, on the other hand, cannot be modified and while human activities can be modified, it often requires holistic behavioural and policy modifications and the impacts of these can be difficult to quantify. When evaluating the effectiveness of urban heat mitigation strategies in observational or traditional modelling studies, it can be difficult to separate the impacts of modifications to the built and natural forms from the interactions of the geographic influences, limiting the universality of results. To address this, we introduce a new methodology to determine the influence of urban form and fabric on thermal comfort, by utilising a comprehensive combination of possible urban forms, an urban morphology data source, and micro-climate modelling. We perform 9814 simulations covering a wide range of realistic built and natural forms (building, roads, grass, and tree densities as well as building and tree heights) to determine their importance and influence on thermal environments in urban canyons without geographical influences. We show that higher daytime air temperatures and thermal comfort indices are strongly driven by increased street fractions, with maximum air temperatures increases of up to 10 and 15 °C as street fractions increase from 10% (very narrow street canyons and/or extensive vegetation cover) to 80 and 90% (wide street canyons). Up to 5 °C reductions in daytime air temperatures are seen with increasing grass and tree fractions from zero (fully urban) to complete (fully natural) coverage. Similar patterns are seen with the Universal Thermal Climate Index (UTCI), with increasing street fractions of 80% and 90% driving increases of 6 and 12 °C, respectively. We then apply the results at a city-wide scale, generating heat maps of several Australian cities showing the impacts of present day urban form and fabric. The resulting method allows mitigation strategies to be tested on modifiable urban form factors isolated from geography, topography, and local weather conditions, factors that cannot easily be modified.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableActive transport research priorities for Australia(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2022-03)