Nossal Institute for Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableIncidence and seroprevalence of dengue virus infections in Australian travellers to Asia(SPRINGER, 2012-06)The purpose of this study was to estimate the incidence density and prevalence of dengue virus infection in Australian travellers to Asia. We conducted a multi-centre prospective cohort study of Australian travellers over a 32-month period. We recruited 467 travellers (≥ 16 years of age) from three travel clinics who intended to travel Asia, and 387 (82.9%) of those travellers completed questionnaires and provide samples pre- and post-travel for serological testing for dengue virus infection. Demographic data, destination countries and history of vaccinations and flavivirus infections were obtained. Serological testing for dengue IgG and IgM by enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay (ELISA) (PanBio assay) was performed. Acute seroconversion for dengue infection was demonstrated in 1.0% of travellers, representing an incidence of 3.4 infections per 10,000 days of travel (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.9-8.7). The seroprevalence of dengue infection was 4.4% and a greater number of prior trips to Asia was a predictor for dengue seroprevalence (p = 0.019). All travellers experienced subclinical dengue infections and had travelled to India (n = 3) and China (n = 1). This significant attack rate of dengue infection can be used to advise prospective travellers to dengue-endemic countries.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableYears lived with disability (YLDs) for 1160 sequelae of 289 diseases and injuries 1990-2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010(ELSEVIER SCIENCE INC, 2012-12-15)BACKGROUND: Non-fatal health outcomes from diseases and injuries are a crucial consideration in the promotion and monitoring of individual and population health. The Global Burden of Disease (GBD) studies done in 1990 and 2000 have been the only studies to quantify non-fatal health outcomes across an exhaustive set of disorders at the global and regional level. Neither effort quantified uncertainty in prevalence or years lived with disability (YLDs). METHODS: Of the 291 diseases and injuries in the GBD cause list, 289 cause disability. For 1160 sequelae of the 289 diseases and injuries, we undertook a systematic analysis of prevalence, incidence, remission, duration, and excess mortality. Sources included published studies, case notification, population-based cancer registries, other disease registries, antenatal clinic serosurveillance, hospital discharge data, ambulatory care data, household surveys, other surveys, and cohort studies. For most sequelae, we used a Bayesian meta-regression method, DisMod-MR, designed to address key limitations in descriptive epidemiological data, including missing data, inconsistency, and large methodological variation between data sources. For some disorders, we used natural history models, geospatial models, back-calculation models (models calculating incidence from population mortality rates and case fatality), or registration completeness models (models adjusting for incomplete registration with health-system access and other covariates). Disability weights for 220 unique health states were used to capture the severity of health loss. YLDs by cause at age, sex, country, and year levels were adjusted for comorbidity with simulation methods. We included uncertainty estimates at all stages of the analysis. FINDINGS: Global prevalence for all ages combined in 2010 across the 1160 sequelae ranged from fewer than one case per 1 million people to 350,000 cases per 1 million people. Prevalence and severity of health loss were weakly correlated (correlation coefficient -0·37). In 2010, there were 777 million YLDs from all causes, up from 583 million in 1990. The main contributors to global YLDs were mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes or endocrine diseases. The leading specific causes of YLDs were much the same in 2010 as they were in 1990: low back pain, major depressive disorder, iron-deficiency anaemia, neck pain, chronic obstructive pulmonary disease, anxiety disorders, migraine, diabetes, and falls. Age-specific prevalence of YLDs increased with age in all regions and has decreased slightly from 1990 to 2010. Regional patterns of the leading causes of YLDs were more similar compared with years of life lost due to premature mortality. Neglected tropical diseases, HIV/AIDS, tuberculosis, malaria, and anaemia were important causes of YLDs in sub-Saharan Africa. INTERPRETATION: Rates of YLDs per 100,000 people have remained largely constant over time but rise steadily with age. Population growth and ageing have increased YLD numbers and crude rates over the past two decades. Prevalences of the most common causes of YLDs, such as mental and behavioural disorders and musculoskeletal disorders, have not decreased. Health systems will need to address the needs of the rising numbers of individuals with a range of disorders that largely cause disability but not mortality. Quantification of the burden of non-fatal health outcomes will be crucial to understand how well health systems are responding to these challenges. Effective and affordable strategies to deal with this rising burden are an urgent priority for health systems in most parts of the world. FUNDING: Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableDisability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for 291 diseases and injuries in 21 regions, 1990–2010: a systematic analysis for the Global Burden of Disease Study 2010(Elsevier, 2013)Background: Measuring disease and injury burden in populations requires a composite metric that captures both premature mortality and the prevalence and severity of ill-health. The 1990 Global Burden of Disease study proposed disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) to measure disease burden. No comprehensive update of disease burden worldwide incorporating a systematic reassessment of disease and injury-specific epidemiology has been done since the 1990 study. We aimed to calculate disease burden worldwide and for 21 regions for 1990, 2005, and 2010 with methods to enable meaningful comparisons over time. Methods: We calculated DALYs as the sum of years of life lost (YLLs) and years lived with disability (YLDs). DALYs were calculated for 291 causes, 20 age groups, both sexes, and for 187 countries, and aggregated to regional and global estimates of disease burden for three points in time with strictly comparable definitions and methods. YLLs were calculated from age-sex-country-time-specific estimates of mortality by cause, with death by standardised lost life expectancy at each age. YLDs were calculated as prevalence of 1160 disabling sequelae, by age, sex, and cause, and weighted by new disability weights for each health state. Neither YLLs nor YLDs were age-weighted or discounted. Uncertainty around cause-specific DALYs was calculated incorporating uncertainty in levels of all-cause mortality, cause-specific mortality, prevalence, and disability weights. Findings: Global DALYs remained stable from 1990 (2·503 billion) to 2010 (2·490 billion). Crude DALYs per 1000 decreased by 23% (472 per 1000 to 361 per 1000). An important shift has occurred in DALY composition with the contribution of deaths and disability among children (younger than 5 years of age) declining from 41% of global DALYs in 1990 to 25% in 2010. YLLs typically account for about half of disease burden in more developed regions (high-income Asia Pacific, western Europe, high-income North America, and Australasia), rising to over 80% of DALYs in sub-Saharan Africa. In 1990, 47% of DALYs worldwide were from communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders, 43% from non-communicable diseases, and 10% from injuries. By 2010, this had shifted to 35%, 54%, and 11%, respectively. Ischaemic heart disease was the leading cause of DALYs worldwide in 2010 (up from fourth rank in 1990, increasing by 29%), followed by lower respiratory infections (top rank in 1990; 44% decline in DALYs), stroke (fifth in 1990; 19% increase), diarrhoeal diseases (second in 1990; 51% decrease), and HIV/AIDS (33rd in 1990; 351% increase). Major depressive disorder increased from 15th to 11th rank (37% increase) and road injury from 12th to 10th rank (34% increase). Substantial heterogeneity exists in rankings of leading causes of disease burden among regions. Interpretation: Global disease burden has continued to shift away from communicable to non-communicable diseases and from premature death to years lived with disability. In sub-Saharan Africa, however, many communicable, maternal, neonatal, and nutritional disorders remain the dominant causes of disease burden. The rising burden from mental and behavioural disorders, musculoskeletal disorders, and diabetes will impose new challenges on health systems. Regional heterogeneity highlights the importance of understanding local burden of disease and setting goals and targets for the post-2015 agenda taking such patterns into account. Because of improved definitions, methods, and data, these results for 1990 and 2010 supersede all previously published Global Burden of Disease results.
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ItemFactors Influencing Receipt of Iron Supplementation by Young Children and their Mothers in Rural India: Local and National Cross-Sectional Studies(BMC, 2011-08-03)BACKGROUND: In India, 55% of women and 69.5% of preschool children are anaemic despite national policies recommending routine iron supplementation. Understanding factors associated with receipt of iron in the field could help optimise implementation of anaemia control policies. Thus, we undertook 1) a cross-sectional study to evaluate iron supplementation to children (and mothers) in rural Karnataka, India, and 2) an analysis of all-India rural data from the National Family Health Study 2005-6 (NFHS-3). METHODS: All children aged 12-23 months and their mothers served by 6 of 8 randomly selected sub-centres managed by 2 rural Primary Health Centres of rural Karnataka were eligible for the Karnataka Study, conducted between August and October 2008. Socioeconomic and demographic data, access to health services and iron receipt were recorded. Secondly, NFHS-3 rural data were analysed. For both studies, logistic regression was used to evaluate factors associated with receipt of iron. RESULTS: The Karnataka Study recruited 405 children and 377 of their mothers. 41.5% of children had received iron, and 11.5% received iron through the public system. By multiple logistic regression, factors associated with children's receipt of iron included: wealth (Odds Ratio (OR) 2.63 [95% CI 1.11, 6.24] for top vs bottom wealth quintile), male sex (OR 2.45 [1.47, 4.10]), mother receiving postnatal iron (OR 2.31 [1.25, 4.28]), mother having undergone antenatal blood test (OR 2.10 [1.09, 4.03]); Muslim religion (OR 0.02 [0.00, 0.27]), attendance at Anganwadi centre (OR 0.23 [0.11, 0.49]), fully vaccinated (OR 0.33 [0.15, 0.75]), or children of mothers with more antenatal health visits (8-9 visits OR 0.25 [0.11, 0.55]) were less likely to receive iron. Nationally, 3.7% of rural children were receiving iron; this was associated with wealth (OR 1.12 [1.02, 1.23] per quintile), maternal education (compared with no education: completed secondary education OR 2.15 [1.17, 3.97], maternal antenatal iron (2.24 [1.56, 3.22]), and child attending an Anganwadi (OR 1.47 [1.20, 1.80]). CONCLUSION: In rural India, public distribution of iron to children is inadequate and disparities exist. Measures to optimize receipt of government supplied iron to all children regardless of wealth and ethnic background could help alleviate anaemia in this population.
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ItemControl of iron deficiency anemia in low- and middle-income countries(AMER SOC HEMATOLOGY, 2013-04-04)Despite worldwide economic and scientific development, more than a quarter of the world's population remains anemic, and about half of this burden is a result of iron deficiency anemia (IDA). IDA is most prevalent among preschool children and women. Among women, iron supplementation improves physical and cognitive performance, work productivity, and well-being, and iron during pregnancy improves maternal, neonatal, infant, and even long-term child outcomes. Among children, iron may improve cognitive, psychomotor, and physical development, but the evidence for this is more limited. Strategies to control IDA include daily and intermittent iron supplementation, home fortification with micronutrient powders, fortification of staple foods and condiments, and activities to improve food security and dietary diversity. The safety of routine iron supplementation in settings where infectious diseases, particularly malaria, are endemic remains uncertain. The World Health Organization is revising global guidelines for controlling IDA. Implementation of anemia control programs in developing countries requires careful baseline epidemiologic evaluation, selection of appropriate interventions that suit the population, and ongoing monitoring to ensure safety and effectiveness. This review provides an overview and an approach for the implementation of public health interventions for controlling IDA in low- and middle-income countries, with an emphasis on current evidence-based recommendations.
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ItemIncidence and risk factors for acute respiratory illnesses and influenza virus infections in Australian travellers to Asia(ELSEVIER SCIENCE BV, 2013-05)BACKGROUND: Respiratory infections including influenza are a common cause of acute short-term morbidity in travellers and yet the risk of these infections is poorly defined. OBJECTIVES: To estimate the incidence density of and risk factors for acute respiratory infections (ARIs) and influenza in Australian travellers to Asia. STUDY DESIGN: Travel-clinic attendees were prospectively identified and completed questionnaires (demographic data, travel itinerary, health and vaccination history) and also provided pre and post-travel serological samples for Influenza A and B (complement fixation test). Returned travellers with an ARI provided nasopharyngeal specimens for RT-PCR identification of respiratory viruses. RESULTS: In this cohort (n = 387) of predominantly (72%) short-term travellers, 58% were female, the median age was 37 years and 69% were tourists. ARIs occurred in 109 travellers (28%) translating to an incidence of 106.4 ARIs per 10,000 traveller days (95% confidence interval CI 88.6-126.7). The traveller type of missionary or aid worker was a risk factor for acquiring an ARI (p = 0.03) and ARIs occurred early (< 30 days) in the travel period (p = 0.001). Four travellers (1%) acquired influenza A during travel translating to an incidence density of 3.4 infections per 10,000 days of travel (95% CI 1.4-8.6). Influenza vaccination was reported in 49% of travellers with a 3.5-fold higher incidence of influenza in unvaccinated travellers compared to vaccinated travellers (p = 0.883). CONCLUSIONS: This is one of the largest prospective studies estimating the incidence of respiratory infections in travellers. These findings have important implications for practitioners advising prospective travellers and for public health authorities.