Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemGenomic prediction of coronary heart disease(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2016-11-14)AIMS: Genetics plays an important role in coronary heart disease (CHD) but the clinical utility of genomic risk scores (GRSs) relative to clinical risk scores, such as the Framingham Risk Score (FRS), is unclear. Our aim was to construct and externally validate a CHD GRS, in terms of lifetime CHD risk and relative to traditional clinical risk scores. METHODS AND RESULTS: We generated a GRS of 49 310 SNPs based on a CARDIoGRAMplusC4D Consortium meta-analysis of CHD, then independently tested it using five prospective population cohorts (three FINRISK cohorts, combined n = 12 676, 757 incident CHD events; two Framingham Heart Study cohorts (FHS), combined n = 3406, 587 incident CHD events). The GRS was associated with incident CHD (FINRISK HR = 1.74, 95% confidence interval (CI) 1.61-1.86 per S.D. of GRS; Framingham HR = 1.28, 95% CI 1.18-1.38), and was largely unchanged by adjustment for known risk factors, including family history. Integration of the GRS with the FRS or ACC/AHA13 scores improved the 10 years risk prediction (meta-analysis C-index: +1.5-1.6%, P < 0.001), particularly for individuals ≥60 years old (meta-analysis C-index: +4.6-5.1%, P < 0.001). Importantly, the GRS captured substantially different trajectories of absolute risk, with men in the top 20% of attaining 10% cumulative CHD risk 12-18 y earlier than those in the bottom 20%. High genomic risk was partially compensated for by low systolic blood pressure, low cholesterol level, and non-smoking. CONCLUSIONS: A GRS based on a large number of SNPs improves CHD risk prediction and encodes different trajectories of lifetime risk not captured by traditional clinical risk scores.
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ItemGenetic loci associated with coronary artery disease harbor evidence of selection and antagonistic pleiotropy(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2017-06)Traditional genome-wide scans for positive selection have mainly uncovered selective sweeps associated with monogenic traits. While selection on quantitative traits is much more common, very few signals have been detected because of their polygenic nature. We searched for positive selection signals underlying coronary artery disease (CAD) in worldwide populations, using novel approaches to quantify relationships between polygenic selection signals and CAD genetic risk. We identified new candidate adaptive loci that appear to have been directly modified by disease pressures given their significant associations with CAD genetic risk. These candidates were all uniquely and consistently associated with many different male and female reproductive traits suggesting selection may have also targeted these because of their direct effects on fitness. We found that CAD loci are significantly enriched for lifetime reproductive success relative to the rest of the human genome, with evidence that the relationship between CAD and lifetime reproductive success is antagonistic. This supports the presence of antagonistic-pleiotropic tradeoffs on CAD loci and provides a novel explanation for the maintenance and high prevalence of CAD in modern humans. Lastly, we found that positive selection more often targeted CAD gene regulatory variants using HapMap3 lymphoblastoid cell lines, which further highlights the unique biological significance of candidate adaptive loci underlying CAD. Our study provides a novel approach for detecting selection on polygenic traits and evidence that modern human genomes have evolved in response to CAD-induced selection pressures and other early-life traits sharing pleiotropic links with CAD.
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ItemInteractions within the MHC contribute to the genetic architecture of celiac disease(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2017-03-10)Interaction analysis of GWAS can detect signal that would be ignored by single variant analysis, yet few robust interactions in humans have been detected. Recent work has highlighted interactions in the MHC region between known HLA risk haplotypes for various autoimmune diseases. To better understand the genetic interactions underlying celiac disease (CD), we have conducted exhaustive genome-wide scans for pairwise interactions in five independent CD case-control studies, using a rapid model-free approach to examine over 500 billion SNP pairs in total. We found 14 independent interaction signals within the MHC region that achieved stringent replication criteria across multiple studies and were independent of known CD risk HLA haplotypes. The strongest independent CD interaction signal corresponded to genes in the HLA class III region, in particular PRRC2A and GPANK1/C6orf47, which are known to contain variants for non-Hodgkin's lymphoma and early menopause, co-morbidities of celiac disease. Replicable evidence for statistical interaction outside the MHC was not observed. Both within and between European populations, we observed striking consistency of two-locus models and model distribution. Within the UK population, models of CD based on both interactions and additive single-SNP effects increased explained CD variance by approximately 1% over those of single SNPs. The interactions signal detected across the five cohorts indicates the presence of novel associations in the MHC region that cannot be detected using additive models. Our findings have implications for the determination of genetic architecture and, by extension, the use of human genetics for validation of therapeutic targets.
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ItemAn interaction map of circulating metabolites, immune gene networks, and their genetic regulation(BMC, 2017-08-01)BACKGROUND: Immunometabolism plays a central role in many cardiometabolic diseases. However, a robust map of immune-related gene networks in circulating human cells, their interactions with metabolites, and their genetic control is still lacking. Here, we integrate blood transcriptomic, metabolomic, and genomic profiles from two population-based cohorts (total N = 2168), including a subset of individuals with matched multi-omic data at 7-year follow-up. RESULTS: We identify topologically replicable gene networks enriched for diverse immune functions including cytotoxicity, viral response, B cell, platelet, neutrophil, and mast cell/basophil activity. These immune gene modules show complex patterns of association with 158 circulating metabolites, including lipoprotein subclasses, lipids, fatty acids, amino acids, small molecules, and CRP. Genome-wide scans for module expression quantitative trait loci (mQTLs) reveal five modules with mQTLs that have both cis and trans effects. The strongest mQTL is in ARHGEF3 (rs1354034) and affects a module enriched for platelet function, independent of platelet counts. Modules of mast cell/basophil and neutrophil function show temporally stable metabolite associations over 7-year follow-up, providing evidence that these modules and their constituent gene products may play central roles in metabolic inflammation. Furthermore, the strongest mQTL in ARHGEF3 also displays clear temporal stability, supporting widespread trans effects at this locus. CONCLUSIONS: This study provides a detailed map of natural variation at the blood immunometabolic interface and its genetic basis, and may facilitate subsequent studies to explain inter-individual variation in cardiometabolic disease.
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ItemGenomic risk score offers predictive performance comparable to clinical risk factors for ischaemic stroke(NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2019-12-20)Recent genome-wide association studies in stroke have enabled the generation of genomic risk scores (GRS) but their predictive power has been modest compared to established stroke risk factors. Here, using a meta-scoring approach, we develop a metaGRS for ischaemic stroke (IS) and analyse this score in the UK Biobank (n = 395,393; 3075 IS events by age 75). The metaGRS hazard ratio for IS (1.26, 95% CI 1.22-1.31 per metaGRS standard deviation) doubles that of a previous GRS, identifying a subset of individuals at monogenic levels of risk: the top 0.25% of metaGRS have three-fold risk of IS. The metaGRS is similarly or more predictive compared to several risk factors, such as family history, blood pressure, body mass index, and smoking. We estimate the reductions needed in modifiable risk factors for individuals with different levels of genomic risk and suggest that, for individuals with high metaGRS, achieving risk factor levels recommended by current guidelines may be insufficient to mitigate risk.
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ItemPrecision Medicine: Dawn of Supercomputing in ‘omics Research(eResearch Australasia, 2011)