Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemMortality from cutaneous melanoma: evidence for contrasting trends between populations(NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2000-06)In recent years several reports have been published concerning trends in melanoma mortality in different countries, some of which have indicated that rates are beginning to fall. Many of these reports, however, have been based on small populations and have used different forms of statistical analysis. Our objective was to analyse systematically to what degree the epidemic of melanoma mortality had evolved similarly in different populations and whether there were any divergent trends that might increase our understanding. Instead of using all available data, we focused on countries with a minimum time series of 30 years and a minimum of 100 deaths annually in at least one sex from melanoma. We first inspected sex-specific age-standardized mortality rates and then performed age-period-cohort modelling. We found that the increase in mortality observed after 1950 was more pronounced in the age group 60-79. Statistical modelling showed a general increase in mortality rates in generations born after the turn of the century. Downturns in mortality, essentially in women and starting with generations born just before World War II, were found in Australia (where the earliest decreases were noted), the Nordic countries and the USA. Small decreases in rates in more recent generations were found in the UK and Canada. However, in France, Italy and Czechoslovakia, mortality rates were seen to be still increasing in recent cohorts. Our analysis suggests that populations are at different places on the melanoma mortality epidemic curve. The three trend patterns we observed are in agreement with time differences between populations with respect to the promotion of sun protection and the surveillance of pigmented skin lesions.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableHeterogeneity of breast cancer associations with five susceptibility loci by clinical and pathological characteristics(PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2008-04)A three-stage genome-wide association study recently identified single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) in five loci (fibroblast growth receptor 2 (FGFR2), trinucleotide repeat containing 9 (TNRC9), mitogen-activated protein kinase 3 K1 (MAP3K1), 8q24, and lymphocyte-specific protein 1 (LSP1)) associated with breast cancer risk. We investigated whether the associations between these SNPs and breast cancer risk varied by clinically important tumor characteristics in up to 23,039 invasive breast cancer cases and 26,273 controls from 20 studies. We also evaluated their influence on overall survival in 13,527 cases from 13 studies. All participants were of European or Asian origin. rs2981582 in FGFR2 was more strongly related to ER-positive (per-allele OR (95%CI) = 1.31 (1.27-1.36)) than ER-negative (1.08 (1.03-1.14)) disease (P for heterogeneity = 10(-13)). This SNP was also more strongly related to PR-positive, low grade and node positive tumors (P = 10(-5), 10(-8), 0.013, respectively). The association for rs13281615 in 8q24 was stronger for ER-positive, PR-positive, and low grade tumors (P = 0.001, 0.011 and 10(-4), respectively). The differences in the associations between SNPs in FGFR2 and 8q24 and risk by ER and grade remained significant after permutation adjustment for multiple comparisons and after adjustment for other tumor characteristics. Three SNPs (rs2981582, rs3803662, and rs889312) showed weak but significant associations with ER-negative disease, the strongest association being for rs3803662 in TNRC9 (1.14 (1.09-1.21)). rs13281615 in 8q24 was associated with an improvement in survival after diagnosis (per-allele HR = 0.90 (0.83-0.97). The association was attenuated and non-significant after adjusting for known prognostic factors. Our findings show that common genetic variants influence the pathological subtype of breast cancer and provide further support for the hypothesis that ER-positive and ER-negative disease are biologically distinct. Understanding the etiologic heterogeneity of breast cancer may ultimately result in improvements in prevention, early detection, and treatment.