Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemCausation and familial confounding as explanations for the associations of polygenic risk scores with breast cancer: Evidence from innovative ICE FALCON and ICE CRISTAL analyses(WILEY, 2024-03-12)A polygenic risk score (PRS) combines the associations of multiple genetic variants that could be due to direct causal effects, indirect genetic effects, or other sources of familial confounding. We have developed new approaches to assess evidence for and against causation by using family data for pairs of relatives (Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmiliaL CONfounding [ICE FALCON]) or measures of family history (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLyses [ICE CRISTAL]). Inference is made from the changes in regression coefficients of relatives' PRSs or PRS and family history before and after adjusting for each other. We applied these approaches to two breast cancer PRSs and multiple studies and found that (a) for breast cancer diagnosed at a young age, for example, <50 years, there was no evidence that the PRSs were causal, while (b) for breast cancer diagnosed at later ages, there was consistent evidence for causation explaining increasing amounts of the PRS-disease association. The genetic variants in the PRS might be in linkage disequilibrium with truly causal variants and not causal themselves. These PRSs cause minimal heritability of breast cancer at younger ages. There is also evidence for nongenetic factors shared by first-degree relatives that explain breast cancer familial aggregation. Familial associations are not necessarily due to genes, and genetic associations are not necessarily causal.
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ItemBreast and bowel cancers diagnosed in people 'too young to have cancer': A blueprint for research using family and twin studies(WILEY, 2024-03-19)Young breast and bowel cancers (e.g., those diagnosed before age 40 or 50 years) have far greater morbidity and mortality in terms of years of life lost, and are increasing in incidence, but have been less studied. For breast and bowel cancers, the familial relative risks, and therefore the familial variances in age-specific log(incidence), are much greater at younger ages, but little of these familial variances has been explained. Studies of families and twins can address questions not easily answered by studies of unrelated individuals alone. We describe existing and emerging family and twin data that can provide special opportunities for discovery. We present designs and statistical analyses, including novel ideas such as the VALID (Variance in Age-specific Log Incidence Decomposition) model for causes of variation in risk, the DEPTH (DEPendency of association on the number of Top Hits) and other approaches to analyse genome-wide association study data, and the within-pair, ICE FALCON (Inference about Causation from Examining FAmiliaL CONfounding) and ICE CRISTAL (Inference about Causation from Examining Changes in Regression coefficients and Innovative STatistical AnaLysis) approaches to causation and familial confounding. Example applications to breast and colorectal cancer are presented. Motivated by the availability of the resources of the Breast and Colon Cancer Family Registries, we also present some ideas for future studies that could be applied to, and compared with, cancers diagnosed at older ages and address the challenges posed by young breast and bowel cancers.
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ItemA genome-wide gene-environment interaction study of breast cancer risk for women of European ancestry(BMC, 2023-08-09)BACKGROUND: Genome-wide studies of gene-environment interactions (G×E) may identify variants associated with disease risk in conjunction with lifestyle/environmental exposures. We conducted a genome-wide G×E analysis of ~ 7.6 million common variants and seven lifestyle/environmental risk factors for breast cancer risk overall and for estrogen receptor positive (ER +) breast cancer. METHODS: Analyses were conducted using 72,285 breast cancer cases and 80,354 controls of European ancestry from the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Gene-environment interactions were evaluated using standard unconditional logistic regression models and likelihood ratio tests for breast cancer risk overall and for ER + breast cancer. Bayesian False Discovery Probability was employed to assess the noteworthiness of each SNP-risk factor pairs. RESULTS: Assuming a 1 × 10-5 prior probability of a true association for each SNP-risk factor pairs and a Bayesian False Discovery Probability < 15%, we identified two independent SNP-risk factor pairs: rs80018847(9p13)-LINGO2 and adult height in association with overall breast cancer risk (ORint = 0.94, 95% CI 0.92-0.96), and rs4770552(13q12)-SPATA13 and age at menarche for ER + breast cancer risk (ORint = 0.91, 95% CI 0.88-0.94). CONCLUSIONS: Overall, the contribution of G×E interactions to the heritability of breast cancer is very small. At the population level, multiplicative G×E interactions do not make an important contribution to risk prediction in breast cancer.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableGenetic and Environmental Causes of Variation in an Automated Breast Cancer Risk Factor Based on Mammographic Textures(American Association for Cancer Research, 2024-02-06)BACKGROUND: Cirrus is an automated risk predictor for breast cancer that comprises texture-based mammographic features and is mostly independent of mammographic density. We investigated genetic and environmental variance of variation in Cirrus. METHODS: We measured Cirrus for 3,195 breast cancer-free participants, including 527 pairs of monozygotic (MZ) twins, 271 pairs of dizygotic (DZ) twins, and 1,599 siblings of twins. Multivariate normal models were used to estimate the variance and familial correlations of age-adjusted Cirrus as a function of age. The classic twin model was expanded to allow the shared environment effects to differ by zygosity. The SNP-based heritability was estimated for a subset of 2,356 participants. RESULTS: There was no evidence that the variance or familial correlations depended on age. The familial correlations were 0.52 (SE, 0.03) for MZ pairs and 0.16(SE, 0.03) for DZ and non-twin sister pairs combined. Shared environmental factors specific to MZ pairs accounted for 20% of the variance. Additive genetic factors accounted for 32% (SE = 5%) of the variance, consistent with the SNP-based heritability of 36% (SE = 16%). CONCLUSION: Cirrus is substantially familial due to genetic factors and an influence of shared environmental factors that was evident for MZ twin pairs only. The latter could be due to nongenetic factors operating in utero or in early life that are shared by MZ twins. IMPACT: Early-life factors, shared more by MZ pairs than DZ/non-twin sister pairs, could play a role in the variation in Cirrus, consistent with early life being recognized as a critical window of vulnerability to breast carcinogens.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableCausal relationships between breast cancer risk factors based on mammographic features(BMC, 2023-10-25)BACKGROUND: Mammogram risk scores based on texture and density defined by different brightness thresholds are associated with breast cancer risk differently and could reveal distinct information about breast cancer risk. We aimed to investigate causal relationships between these intercorrelated mammogram risk scores to determine their relevance to breast cancer aetiology. METHODS: We used digitised mammograms for 371 monozygotic twin pairs, aged 40-70 years without a prior diagnosis of breast cancer at the time of mammography, from the Australian Mammographic Density Twins and Sisters Study. We generated normalised, age-adjusted, and standardised risk scores based on textures using the Cirrus algorithm and on three spatially independent dense areas defined by increasing brightness threshold: light areas, bright areas, and brightest areas. Causal inference was made using the Inference about Causation from Examination of FAmilial CONfounding (ICE FALCON) method. RESULTS: The mammogram risk scores were correlated within twin pairs and with each other (r = 0.22-0.81; all P < 0.005). We estimated that 28-92% of the associations between the risk scores could be attributed to causal relationships between the scores, with the rest attributed to familial confounders shared by the scores. There was consistent evidence for positive causal effects: of Cirrus, light areas, and bright areas on the brightest areas (accounting for 34%, 55%, and 85% of the associations, respectively); and of light areas and bright areas on Cirrus (accounting for 37% and 28%, respectively). CONCLUSIONS: In a mammogram, the lighter (less dense) areas have a causal effect on the brightest (highly dense) areas, including through a causal pathway via textural features. These causal relationships help us gain insight into the relative aetiological importance of different mammographic features in breast cancer. For example our findings are consistent with the brightest areas being more aetiologically important than lighter areas for screen-detected breast cancer; conversely, light areas being more aetiologically important for interval breast cancer. Additionally, specific textural features capture aetiologically independent breast cancer risk information from dense areas. These findings highlight the utility of ICE FALCON and family data in decomposing the associations between intercorrelated disease biomarkers into distinct biological pathways.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableRE: Heterozygous BRCA1 and BRCA2 and mismatch repair gene pathogenic variants in children and adolescents with cancer(OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC, 2023-06-08)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableVariance of age-specific log incidence decomposition (VALID): a unifying model of measured and unmeasured genetic and non-genetic risks(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2023-10-05)BACKGROUND: The extent to which known and unknown factors explain how much people of the same age differ in disease risk is fundamental to epidemiology. Risk factors can be correlated in relatives, so familial aspects of risk (genetic and non-genetic) must be considered. DEVELOPMENT: We present a unifying model (VALID) for variance in risk, with risk defined as log(incidence) or logit(cumulative incidence). Consider a normally distributed risk score with incidence increasing exponentially as the risk increases. VALID's building block is variance in risk, Δ2, where Δ = log(OPERA) is the difference in mean between cases and controls and OPERA is the odds ratio per standard deviation. A risk score correlated r between a pair of relatives generates a familial odds ratio of exp(rΔ2). Familial risk ratios, therefore, can be converted into variance components of risk, extending Fisher's classic decomposition of familial variation to binary traits. Under VALID, there is a natural upper limit to variance in risk caused by genetic factors, determined by the familial odds ratio for genetically identical twin pairs, but not to variation caused by non-genetic factors. APPLICATION: For female breast cancer, VALID quantified how much variance in risk is explained-at different ages-by known and unknown major genes and polygenes, non-genomic risk factors correlated in relatives, and known individual-specific factors. CONCLUSION: VALID has shown that, while substantial genetic risk factors have been discovered, much is unknown about genetic and familial aspects of breast cancer risk especially for young women, and little is known about individual-specific variance in risk.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableEpigenome-wide association study of short-term temperature fluctuations based on within-sibship analyses in Australian females(PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2023-01)BACKGROUND: Temperature fluctuations can affect human health independent of the effect of mean temperature. However, no study has evaluated whether short-term temperature fluctuations could affect DNA methylation. METHODS: Peripheral blood DNA methylation for 479 female siblings of 130 families were analysed. Gridded daily temperatures data were obtained, linked to each participant's home address, and used to calculate nine different metrics of short-term temperature fluctuations: temperature variabilities (TVs) within the day of blood draw and preceding one to seven days (TV 0-1 to TV 0-7), diurnal temperature range (DTR), and temperature change between neighbouring days (TCN). Within-sibship design was used to perform epigenome-wide association analyses, adjusting for daily mean temperatures, and other important covariates (e.g., smoking, alcohol use, cell-type proportions). Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were further identified. Multiple-testing comparisons with a significant threshold of 0.01 for cytosine-guanine dinucleotides (CpGs) and 0.05 for DMRs were applied. RESULTS: Among 479 participants (mean age ± SD, 56.4 ± 7.9 years), we identified significant changes in methylation levels in 14 CpGs and 70 DMRs associated with temperature fluctuations. Almost all identified CpGs were associated with exposure to temperature fluctuations within three days. Differentially methylated signals were mapped to 68 genes that were linked to human diseases such as cancer (e.g., colorectal carcinoma, breast carcinoma, and metastatic neoplasms) and mental disorder (e.g., schizophrenia, mental depression, and bipolar disorder). The top three most significantly enriched gene ontology terms were Response to bacterium (TV 0-3), followed by Hydrolase activity, acting on ester bonds (TCN), and Oxidoreductase activity (TV 0-3). CONCLUSIONS: Short-term temperature fluctuations were associated with differentially methylated signals across the human genome, which provides evidence on the potential biological mechanisms underlying the health impact of temperature fluctuations. Future studies are needed to further clarify the roles of DNA methylation in diseases associated with temperature fluctuations.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableWildfire-related PM2.5 and DNA methylation: An Australian twin and family study(PERGAMON-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2023-01-01)BACKGROUND: Wildfire-related fine particulate matter (PM2.5) has many adverse health impacts, but its impacts on human epigenome are unknown. We aimed to evaluate the associations between long-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 and blood DNA methylation, and whether the associations differ from those with non-wildfire-related PM2.5. METHODS: We studied 479 Australian women comprising 132 twin pairs and 215 of their sisters. Blood-derived DNA methylation was measured using the HumanMethylation450 BeadChip array. Data on 3-year (year of blood collection and previous two years) average wildfire-related and non-wildfire-related PM2.5 at 0.01°×0.01° spatial resolution were created by combining information from satellite observations, chemical transport models, and ground-based observations. Exposure data were linked to each participant's home address, assuming the address did not change during the exposure window. For DNA methylation of each cytosine-guanine dinucleotide (CpG), and for global DNA methylation represented by the average of all measured CpGs or CpGs in repetitive elements, we evaluated their associations with wildfire- or non-wildfire-related PM2.5 using a within-sibship analysis controlling for factors shared between siblings and other important covariates. Differentially methylated regions (DMRs) were defined by comb-p and DMRcate. RESULTS: The 3-year average wildfire-related PM2.5 (range: 0.3 to 7.6 µg/m3, mean: 1.6 µg/m3) was negatively, but not significantly (p-values greater than 0.05) associated with all seven global DNA methylation measures. There were 26 CpGs and 33 DMRs associated with wildfire-related PM2.5 (Bonferroni adjusted p-value < 0.05) mapped to 47 genes enriched for pathways related to inflammatory regulation and platelet activation. These genes have been related to many human diseases or phenotypes e.g., cancer, mental disorders, diabetes, obesity, asthma, blood pressure. These CpGs, DMRs and enriched pathways did not overlap with the 1 CpG and 7 DMRs associated with non-wildfire-related PM2.5. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term exposure to wildfire-related PM2.5 was associated with various blood DNA methylation signatures in Australian women, and these were distinct from those associated with non-wildfire-related PM2.5.
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ItemWeight is More Informative than Body Mass Index for Predicting Postmenopausal Breast Cancer Risk: Prospective Family Study Cohort (ProF-SC)(AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH, 2022-03)UNLABELLED: We considered whether weight is more informative than body mass index (BMI) = weight/height2 when predicting breast cancer risk for postmenopausal women, and if the weight association differs by underlying familial risk. We studied 6,761 women postmenopausal at baseline with a wide range of familial risk from 2,364 families in the Prospective Family Study Cohort. Participants were followed for on average 11.45 years and there were 416 incident breast cancers. We used Cox regression to estimate risk associations with log-transformed weight and BMI after adjusting for underlying familial risk. We compared model fits using the Akaike information criterion (AIC) and nested models using the likelihood ratio test. The AIC for the weight-only model was 6.22 units lower than for the BMI-only model, and the log risk gradient was 23% greater. Adding BMI or height to weight did not improve fit (ΔAIC = 0.90 and 0.83, respectively; both P = 0.3). Conversely, adding weight to BMI or height gave better fits (ΔAIC = 5.32 and 11.64; P = 0.007 and 0.0002, respectively). Adding height improved only the BMI model (ΔAIC = 5.47; P = 0.006). There was no evidence that the BMI or weight associations differed by underlying familial risk (P > 0.2). Weight is more informative than BMI for predicting breast cancer risk, consistent with nonadipose as well as adipose tissue being etiologically relevant. The independent but multiplicative associations of weight and familial risk suggest that, in terms of absolute breast cancer risk, the association with weight is more important the greater a woman's underlying familial risk. PREVENTION RELEVANCE: Our results suggest that the relationship between BMI and breast cancer could be due to a relationship between weight and breast cancer, downgraded by inappropriately adjusting for height; potential importance of anthropometric measures other than total body fat; breast cancer risk associations with BMI and weight are across a continuum.