Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications

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    Physical activity, sedentary time and breast cancer risk: a Mendelian randomisation study
    Dixon-Suen, SC ; Lewis, SJ ; Martin, RM ; English, DR ; Boyle, T ; Giles, GG ; Michailidou, K ; Bolla, MK ; Wang, Q ; Dennis, J ; Lush, M ; Ahearn, TU ; Ambrosone, CB ; Andrulis, IL ; Anton-Culver, H ; Arndt, V ; Aronson, KJ ; Augustinsson, A ; Auvinen, P ; Beane Freeman, LE ; Becher, H ; Beckmann, MW ; Behrens, S ; Bermisheva, M ; Blomqvist, C ; Bogdanova, N ; Bojesen, SE ; Bonanni, B ; Brenner, H ; Bruening, T ; Buys, SS ; Camp, NJ ; Campa, D ; Canzian, F ; Castelao, JE ; Cessna, MH ; Chang-Claude, J ; Chanock, SJ ; Clarke, CL ; Conroy, DM ; Couch, FJ ; Cox, A ; Cross, SS ; Czene, K ; Daly, MB ; Devilee, P ; Doerk, T ; Dwek, M ; Eccles, DM ; Eliassen, AH ; Engel, C ; Eriksson, M ; Evans, DG ; Fasching, PA ; Fletcher, O ; Flyger, H ; Fritschi, L ; Gabrielson, M ; Gago-Dominguez, M ; Garcia-Closas, M ; Garcia-Saenz, JA ; Goldberg, MS ; Guenel, P ; Guendert, M ; Hahnen, E ; Haiman, CA ; Haeberle, L ; Hakansson, N ; Hall, P ; Hamann, U ; Hart, SN ; Harvie, M ; Hillemanns, P ; Hollestelle, A ; Hooning, MJ ; Hoppe, R ; Hopper, J ; Howell, A ; Hunter, DJ ; Jakubowska, A ; Janni, W ; John, EM ; Jung, A ; Kaaks, R ; Keeman, R ; Kitahara, CM ; Koutros, S ; Kraft, P ; Kristensen, VN ; Kubelka-Sabit, K ; Kurian, AW ; Lacey, J ; Lambrechts, D ; Le Marchand, L ; Lindblom, A ; Loibl, S ; Lubinski, J ; Mannermaa, A ; Manoochehri, M ; Margolin, S ; Martinez, ME ; Mavroudis, D ; Menon, U ; Mulligan, AM ; Murphy, RA ; Nevanlinna, H ; Nevelsteen, I ; Newman, WG ; Offit, K ; Olshan, AF ; Olsson, H ; Orr, N ; Patel, A ; Peto, J ; Plaseska-Karanfilska, D ; Presneau, N ; Rack, B ; Radice, P ; Rees-Punia, E ; Rennert, G ; Rennert, HS ; Romero, A ; Saloustros, E ; Sandler, DP ; Schmidt, MK ; Schmutzler, RK ; Schwentner, L ; Scott, C ; Shah, M ; Shu, X-O ; Simard, J ; Southey, MC ; Stone, J ; Surowy, H ; Swerdlow, AJ ; Tamimi, RM ; Tapper, WJ ; Taylor, JA ; Terry, MB ; Tollenaar, RAEM ; Troester, MA ; Truong, T ; Untch, M ; Vachon, CM ; Joseph, V ; Wappenschmidt, B ; Weinberg, CR ; Wolk, A ; Yannoukakos, D ; Zheng, W ; Ziogas, A ; Dunning, AM ; Pharoah, PDP ; Easton, DF ; Milne, RL ; Lynch, BM (BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2022-10)
    OBJECTIVES: Physical inactivity and sedentary behaviour are associated with higher breast cancer risk in observational studies, but ascribing causality is difficult. Mendelian randomisation (MR) assesses causality by simulating randomised trial groups using genotype. We assessed whether lifelong physical activity or sedentary time, assessed using genotype, may be causally associated with breast cancer risk overall, pre/post-menopause, and by case-groups defined by tumour characteristics. METHODS: We performed two-sample inverse-variance-weighted MR using individual-level Breast Cancer Association Consortium case-control data from 130 957 European-ancestry women (69 838 invasive cases), and published UK Biobank data (n=91 105-377 234). Genetic instruments were single nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) associated in UK Biobank with wrist-worn accelerometer-measured overall physical activity (nsnps=5) or sedentary time (nsnps=6), or accelerometer-measured (nsnps=1) or self-reported (nsnps=5) vigorous physical activity. RESULTS: Greater genetically-predicted overall activity was associated with lower breast cancer overall risk (OR=0.59; 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.42 to 0.83 per-standard deviation (SD;~8 milligravities acceleration)) and for most case-groups. Genetically-predicted vigorous activity was associated with lower risk of pre/perimenopausal breast cancer (OR=0.62; 95% CI 0.45 to 0.87,≥3 vs. 0 self-reported days/week), with consistent estimates for most case-groups. Greater genetically-predicted sedentary time was associated with higher hormone-receptor-negative tumour risk (OR=1.77; 95% CI 1.07 to 2.92 per-SD (~7% time spent sedentary)), with elevated estimates for most case-groups. Results were robust to sensitivity analyses examining pleiotropy (including weighted-median-MR, MR-Egger). CONCLUSION: Our study provides strong evidence that greater overall physical activity, greater vigorous activity, and lower sedentary time are likely to reduce breast cancer risk. More widespread adoption of active lifestyles may reduce the burden from the most common cancer in women.
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    Distinct Reproductive Risk Profiles for Intrinsic-Like Breast Cancer Subtypes: Pooled Analysis of Population-Based Studies
    Jung, AY ; Ahearn, TU ; Behrens, S ; Middha, P ; Bolla, MK ; Wang, Q ; Arndt, V ; Aronson, KJ ; Augustinsson, A ; Freeman, LEB ; Becher, H ; Brenner, H ; Canzian, F ; Carey, LA ; Consortium, C ; Czene, K ; Eliassen, AH ; Eriksson, M ; Evans, DG ; Figueroa, JD ; Fritschi, L ; Gabrielson, M ; Giles, GG ; Guenel, P ; Hadjisavvas, A ; Haiman, CA ; Hakansson, N ; Hall, P ; Hamann, U ; Hoppe, R ; Hopper, JL ; Howell, A ; Hunter, DJ ; Huesing, A ; Kaaks, R ; Kosma, V-M ; Koutros, S ; Kraft, P ; Lacey, J ; Le Marchand, L ; Lissowska, J ; Loizidou, MA ; Mannermaa, A ; Maurer, T ; Murphy, RA ; Olshan, AF ; Olsson, H ; Patel, A ; Perou, CM ; Rennert, G ; Shibli, R ; Shu, X-O ; Southey, MC ; Stone, J ; Tamimi, RM ; Teras, LR ; Troester, MA ; Truong, T ; Vachon, CM ; Wang, SS ; Wolk, A ; Wu, AH ; Yang, XR ; Zheng, W ; Dunning, AM ; Pharoah, PDP ; Easton, DF ; Milne, RL ; Chatterjee, N ; Schmidt, MK ; Garcia-Closas, M ; Chang-Claude, J (OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC, 2022-12)
    BACKGROUND: Reproductive factors have been shown to be differentially associated with risk of estrogen receptor (ER)-positive and ER-negative breast cancer. However, their associations with intrinsic-like subtypes are less clear. METHODS: Analyses included up to 23 353 cases and 71 072 controls pooled from 31 population-based case-control or cohort studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium across 16 countries on 4 continents. Polytomous logistic regression was used to estimate the association between reproductive factors and risk of breast cancer by intrinsic-like subtypes (luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2-like, HER2-enriched-like, and triple-negative breast cancer) and by invasiveness. All statistical tests were 2-sided. RESULTS: Compared with nulliparous women, parous women had a lower risk of luminal A-like, luminal B-like, luminal B-HER2-like, and HER2-enriched-like disease. This association was apparent only after approximately 10 years since last birth and became stronger with increasing time (odds ratio [OR] = 0.59, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.49 to 0.71; and OR = 0.36, 95% CI = 0.28 to 0.46 for multiparous women with luminal A-like tumors 20 to less than 25 years after last birth and 45 to less than 50 years after last birth, respectively). In contrast, parous women had a higher risk of triple-negative breast cancer right after their last birth (for multiparous women: OR = 3.12, 95% CI = 2.02 to 4.83) that was attenuated with time but persisted for decades (OR = 1.03, 95% CI = 0.79 to 1.34, for multiparous women 25 to less than 30 years after last birth). Older age at first birth (Pheterogeneity < .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) and breastfeeding (Pheterogeneity < .001 for triple-negative compared with luminal A-like breast cancer) were associated with lower risk of triple-negative breast cancer but not with other disease subtypes. Younger age at menarche was associated with higher risk of all subtypes; older age at menopause was associated with higher risk of luminal A-like but not triple-negative breast cancer. Associations for in situ tumors were similar to luminal A-like. CONCLUSIONS: This large and comprehensive study demonstrates a distinct reproductive risk factor profile for triple-negative breast cancer compared with other subtypes, with implications for the understanding of disease etiology and risk prediction.
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    Genome-Wide Interaction Analysis of Genetic Variants With Menopausal Hormone Therapy for Colorectal Cancer Risk
    Tian, Y ; Kim, AE ; Bien, SA ; Lin, Y ; Qu, C ; Harrison, TA ; Carreras-Torres, R ; Diez-Obrero, V ; Dimou, N ; Drew, DA ; Hidaka, A ; Huyghe, JR ; Jordahl, KM ; Morrison, J ; Murphy, N ; Obon-Santacana, M ; Ulrich, CM ; Ose, J ; Peoples, AR ; Ruiz-Narvaez, EA ; Shcherbina, A ; Stern, MC ; Su, Y-R ; van Duijnhoven, FJB ; Arndt, V ; Baurley, JW ; Berndt, S ; Bishop, DT ; Brenner, H ; Buchanan, DD ; Chan, AT ; Figueiredo, JC ; Gallinger, S ; Gruber, SB ; Harlid, S ; Hoffmeister, M ; Jenkins, MA ; Joshi, AD ; Keku, TO ; Larsson, SC ; Le Marchand, L ; Li, L ; Giles, GG ; Milne, RL ; Nan, H ; Nassir, R ; Ogino, S ; Budiarto, A ; Platz, EA ; Potter, JD ; Prentice, RL ; Rennert, G ; Sakoda, LC ; Schoen, RE ; Slattery, ML ; Thibodeau, SN ; Van Guelpen, B ; Visvanathan, K ; White, E ; Wolk, A ; Woods, MO ; Wu, AH ; Campbell, PT ; Casey, G ; Conti, D ; Gunter, MJ ; Kundaje, A ; Lewinger, JP ; Moreno, V ; Newcomb, PA ; Pardamean, B ; Thomas, DC ; Tsilidis, KK ; Peters, U ; Gauderman, WJ ; Hsu, L ; Chang-Claude, J (OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC, 2022-08-08)
    BACKGROUND: The use of menopausal hormone therapy (MHT) may interact with genetic variants to influence colorectal cancer (CRC) risk. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide, gene-environment interaction between single nucleotide polymorphisms and the use of any MHT, estrogen only, and combined estrogen-progestogen therapy with CRC risk, among 28 486 postmenopausal women (11 519 CRC patients and 16 967 participants without CRC) from 38 studies, using logistic regression, 2-step method, and 2- or 3-degree-of-freedom joint test. A set-based score test was applied for rare genetic variants. RESULTS: The use of any MHT, estrogen only and estrogen-progestogen were associated with a reduced CRC risk (odds ratio [OR] = 0.71, 95% confidence interval [CI] = 0.64 to 0.78; OR = 0.65, 95% CI = 0.53 to 0.79; and OR = 0.73, 95% CI = 0.59 to 0.90, respectively). The 2-step method identified a statistically significant interaction between a GRIN2B variant rs117868593 and MHT use, whereby MHT-associated CRC risk was statistically significantly reduced in women with the GG genotype (OR = 0.68, 95% CI = 0.64 to 0.72) but not within strata of GC or CC genotypes. A statistically significant interaction between a DCBLD1 intronic variant at 6q22.1 (rs10782186) and MHT use was identified by the 2-degree-of-freedom joint test. The MHT-associated CRC risk was reduced with increasing number of rs10782186-C alleles, showing odds ratios of 0.78 (95% CI = 0.70 to 0.87) for TT, 0.68 (95% CI = 0.63 to 0.73) for TC, and 0.66 (95% CI = 0.60 to 0.74) for CC genotypes. In addition, 5 genes in rare variant analysis showed suggestive interactions with MHT (2-sided P < 1.2 × 10-4). CONCLUSION: Genetic variants that modify the association between MHT and CRC risk were identified, offering new insights into pathways of CRC carcinogenesis and potential mechanisms involved.
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    Does genetic predisposition modify the effect of lifestyle-related factors on DNA methylation?
    Yu, C ; Hodge, AM ; Wong, EM ; Joo, JE ; Makalic, E ; Schmidt, DF ; Buchanan, DD ; Severi, G ; Hopper, JL ; English, DR ; Giles, GG ; Milne, RL ; Southey, MC ; Dugue, P-A (TAYLOR & FRANCIS INC, 2022-12-02)
    Lifestyle-related phenotypes have been shown to be heritable and associated with DNA methylation. We aimed to investigate whether genetic predisposition to tobacco smoking, alcohol consumption, and higher body mass index (BMI) moderates the effect of these phenotypes on blood DNA methylation. We calculated polygenic scores (PGS) to quantify genetic predisposition to these phenotypes using training (N = 7,431) and validation (N = 4,307) samples. Using paired genetic-methylation data (N = 4,307), gene-environment interactions (i.e., PGS × lifestyle) were assessed using linear mixed-effects models with outcomes: 1) methylation at sites found to be strongly associated with smoking (1,061 CpGs), alcohol consumption (459 CpGs), and BMI (85 CpGs) and 2) two epigenetic ageing measures, PhenoAge and GrimAge. In the validation sample, PGS explained ~1.4% (P = 1 × 10-14), ~0.6% (P = 2 × 10-7), and ~8.7% (P = 7 × 10-87) of variance in smoking initiation, alcohol consumption, and BMI, respectively. Nominally significant interaction effects (P < 0.05) were found at 61, 14, and 7 CpGs for smoking, alcohol consumption, and BMI, respectively. There was strong evidence that all lifestyle-related phenotypes were positively associated with PhenoAge and GrimAge, except for alcohol consumption with PhenoAge. There was weak evidence that the association of smoking with GrimAge was attenuated in participants genetically predisposed to smoking (interaction term: -0.022, standard error [SE] = 0.012, P = 0.058) and that the association of alcohol consumption with PhenoAge was attenuated in those genetically predisposed to drink alcohol (interaction term: -0.030, SE = 0.015, P = 0.041). In conclusion, genetic susceptibility to unhealthy lifestyles did not strongly modify the association between observed lifestyle behaviour and blood DNA methylation. Potential associations were observed for epigenetic ageing measures, which should be replicated in additional studies.
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    Alcohol intake trajectories during the life course and risk of alcohol-related cancer: A prospective cohort study
    Bassett, JK ; MacInnis, RJ ; Yang, Y ; Hodge, AM ; Lynch, BM ; English, DR ; Giles, GG ; Milne, RL ; Jayasekara, H (WILEY, 2022-07-01)
    We examined associations between sex-specific alcohol intake trajectories and alcohol-related cancer risk using data from 22 756 women and 15 701 men aged 40 to 69 years at baseline in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Alcohol intake for 10-year periods from age 20 until the decade encompassing recruitment, calculated using recalled beverage-specific frequency and quantity, was used to estimate group-based sex-specific intake trajectories. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) were estimated for primary invasive alcohol-related cancer (upper aerodigestive tract, breast, liver and colorectum). Three distinct alcohol intake trajectories for women (lifetime abstention, stable light, increasing moderate) and six for men (lifetime abstention, stable light, stable moderate, increasing heavy, early decreasing heavy, late decreasing heavy) were identified. 2303 incident alcohol-related cancers were diagnosed during 485 525 person-years in women and 789 during 303 218 person-years in men. For men, compared with lifetime abstention, heavy intake (mean ≥ 60 g/day) at age 20 to 39 followed by either an early (from age 40 to 49) (early decreasing heavy; HR = 1.75, 95% CI: 1.25-2.44) or late decrease (from age 60 to 69) (late decreasing heavy; HR = 1.94, 95% CI: 1.28-2.93), and moderate intake (mean <60 g/day) at age 20 to 39 increasing to heavy intake in middle-age (increasing heavy; HR = 1.45, 95% CI: 1.06-1.97) were associated with increased risk of alcohol-related cancer. For women, compared with lifetime abstention, increasing intake from age 20 (increasing moderate) was associated with increased alcohol-related cancer risk (HR = 1.25, 95% CI: 1.06-1.48). Similar associations were observed for colorectal (men) and breast cancer. Heavy drinking during early adulthood might increase cancer risk later in life.
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    Interactions between folate intake and genetic predictors of gene expression levels associated with colorectal cancer risk
    Haas, CB ; Su, Y-R ; Petersen, P ; Wang, X ; Bien, SA ; Lin, Y ; Albanes, D ; Weinstein, SJ ; Jenkins, MA ; Figueiredo, JC ; Newcomb, PA ; Casey, G ; Le Marchand, L ; Campbell, PT ; Moreno, V ; Potter, JD ; Sakoda, LC ; Slattery, ML ; Chan, AT ; Li, L ; Giles, GG ; Milne, RL ; Gruber, SB ; Rennert, G ; Woods, MO ; Gallinger, SJ ; Berndt, S ; Hayes, RB ; Huang, W-Y ; Wolk, A ; White, E ; Nan, H ; Nassir, R ; Lindor, NM ; Lewinger, JP ; Kim, AE ; Conti, D ; Gauderman, WJ ; Buchanan, DD ; Peters, U ; Hsu, L (NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2022-11-07)
    Observational studies have shown higher folate consumption to be associated with lower risk of colorectal cancer (CRC). Understanding whether and how genetic risk factors interact with folate could further elucidate the underlying mechanism. Aggregating functionally relevant genetic variants in set-based variant testing has higher power to detect gene-environment (G × E) interactions and may provide information on the underlying biological pathway. We investigated interactions between folate consumption and predicted gene expression on colorectal cancer risk across the genome. We used variant weights from the PrediXcan models of colon tissue-specific gene expression as a priori variant information for a set-based G × E approach. We harmonized total folate intake (mcg/day) based on dietary intake and supplemental use across cohort and case-control studies and calculated sex and study specific quantiles. Analyses were performed using a mixed effects score tests for interactions between folate and genetically predicted expression of 4839 genes with available genetically predicted expression. We pooled results across 23 studies for a total of 13,498 cases with colorectal tumors and 13,918 controls of European ancestry. We used a false discovery rate of 0.2 to identify genes with suggestive evidence of an interaction. We found suggestive evidence of interaction with folate intake on CRC risk for genes including glutathione S-Transferase Alpha 1 (GSTA1; p = 4.3E-4), Tonsuko Like, DNA Repair Protein (TONSL; p = 4.3E-4), and Aspartylglucosaminidase (AGA: p = 4.5E-4). We identified three genes involved in preventing or repairing DNA damage that may interact with folate consumption to alter CRC risk. Glutathione is an antioxidant, preventing cellular damage and is a downstream metabolite of homocysteine and metabolized by GSTA1. TONSL is part of a complex that functions in the recovery of double strand breaks and AGA plays a role in lysosomal breakdown of glycoprotein.
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    Kynurenine Pathway Metabolites in the Blood and Cerebrospinal Fluid Are Associated with Human Aging
    Solvang, S-EH ; Hodge, A ; Watne, LO ; Cabral-Marques, O ; Nordrehaug, JE ; Giles, GG ; Dugue, P-A ; Nygard, O ; Ueland, PM ; McCann, A ; Idland, A-V ; Midttun, O ; Ulvik, A ; Halaas, NB ; Tell, GS ; Giil, LM ; López-Alarcón, C (HINDAWI LTD, 2022-10-21)
    The kynurenine pathway is implicated in aging, longevity, and immune regulation, but longitudinal studies and assessment of the cerebrospinal fluid (CSF) are lacking. We investigated tryptophan (Trp) and downstream kynurenine metabolites and their associations with age and change over time in four cohorts using comprehensive, targeted metabolomics. The study included 1574 participants in two cohorts with repeated metabolite measurements (mean age at baseline 58 years ± 8 SD and 62 ± 10 SD), 3161 community-dwelling older adults (age range 71-74 years), and 109 CSF donors (mean age 73 years ± 7 SD). In the first two cohorts, age was associated with kynurenine (Kyn), quinolinic acid (QA), and the kynurenine to tryptophan ratio (KTR), and inversely with Trp. Consistent with these findings, Kyn, QA, and KTR increased over time, whereas Trp decreased. Similarly, QA and KTR were higher in community-dwelling older adults of age 74 compared to 71, whereas Trp was lower. Kyn and QA were more strongly correlated with age in the CSF compared to serum and increased in a subset of participants with repeated CSF sampling (n = 33) over four years. We assessed associations with frailty and mortality in two cohorts. QA and KTR were most strongly associated with mortality and frailty. Our study provides robust evidence of changes in tryptophan and kynurenine metabolism with human aging and supports links with adverse health outcomes. Our results suggest that aging activates the inflammation and stress-driven kynurenine pathway systemically and in the brain, but we cannot determine whether this activation is harmful or adaptive. We identified a relatively stronger age-related increase of the potentially neurotoxic end-product QA in brain.
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    Incorporating progesterone receptor expression into the PREDICT breast prognostic model
    Grootes, I ; Keeman, R ; Blows, FM ; Milne, RL ; Giles, GG ; Swerdlow, AJ ; Fasching, PA ; Abubakar, M ; Andrulis, IL ; Anton-Culver, H ; Beckmann, MW ; Blomqvist, C ; Bojesen, SE ; Bolla, MK ; Bonanni, B ; Briceno, I ; Burwinkel, B ; Camp, NJ ; Castelao, JE ; Choi, J-Y ; Clarke, CL ; Couch, FJ ; Cox, A ; Cross, SS ; Czene, K ; Devilee, P ; Dork, T ; Dunning, AM ; Dwek, M ; Easton, DF ; Eccles, DM ; Eriksson, M ; Ernst, K ; Evans, DG ; Figueroa, JD ; Fink, V ; Floris, G ; Fox, S ; Gabrielson, M ; Gago-Dominguez, M ; Garcia-Saenz, JA ; Gonzalez-Neira, A ; Haeberle, L ; Haiman, CA ; Hall, P ; Hamann, U ; Harkness, EF ; Hartman, M ; Hein, A ; Hooning, MJ ; Hou, M-F ; Howell, SJ ; Ito, H ; Jakubowska, A ; Janni, W ; John, EM ; Jung, A ; Kang, D ; Kristensen, VN ; Kwong, A ; Lambrechts, D ; Li, J ; Manoochehri, M ; Margolin, S ; Matsuo, K ; Taib, NAM ; Mulligan, AM ; Nevanlinna, H ; Newman, WG ; Offit, K ; Osorio, A ; Park, SK ; Park-Simon, T-W ; Patel, A ; Presneau, N ; Pylkas, K ; Rack, B ; Radice, P ; Rennert, G ; Romero, A ; Saloustros, E ; Sawyer, EJ ; Schneeweiss, A ; Schochter, F ; Schoemaker, MJ ; Shen, C-Y ; Shibli, R ; Sinn, P ; Tapper, WJ ; Tawfiq, E ; Teo, SH ; Teras, LR ; Torres, D ; Vachon, CM ; van Deurzen, CHM ; Wendt, C ; Williams, JA ; Winqvist, R ; Elwood, M ; Schmidt, MK ; Pharoah, PDP (ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2022-09)
    BACKGROUND: Predict Breast (www.predict.nhs.uk) is an online prognostication and treatment benefit tool for early invasive breast cancer. The aim of this study was to incorporate the prognostic effect of progesterone receptor (PR) status into a new version of PREDICT and to compare its performance to the current version (2.2). METHOD: The prognostic effect of PR status was based on the analysis of data from 45,088 European patients with breast cancer from 49 studies in the Breast Cancer Association Consortium. Cox proportional hazard models were used to estimate the hazard ratio for PR status. Data from a New Zealand study of 11,365 patients with early invasive breast cancer were used for external validation. Model calibration and discrimination were used to test the model performance. RESULTS: Having a PR-positive tumour was associated with a 23% and 28% lower risk of dying from breast cancer for women with oestrogen receptor (ER)-negative and ER-positive breast cancer, respectively. The area under the ROC curve increased with the addition of PR status from 0.807 to 0.809 for patients with ER-negative tumours (p = 0.023) and from 0.898 to 0.902 for patients with ER-positive tumours (p = 2.3 × 10-6) in the New Zealand cohort. Model calibration was modest with 940 observed deaths compared to 1151 predicted. CONCLUSION: The inclusion of the prognostic effect of PR status to PREDICT Breast has led to an improvement of model performance and more accurate absolute treatment benefit predictions for individual patients. Further studies should determine whether the baseline hazard function requires recalibration.
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    Absolute Risk of Oropharyngeal Cancer After an HPV16-E6 Serology Test and Potential Implications for Screening: Results From the Human Papillomavirus Cancer Cohort Consortium.
    Robbins, HA ; Ferreiro-Iglesias, A ; Waterboer, T ; Brenner, N ; Nygard, M ; Bender, N ; Schroeder, L ; Hildesheim, A ; Pawlita, M ; D'Souza, G ; Visvanathan, K ; Langseth, H ; Schlecht, NF ; Tinker, LF ; Agalliu, I ; Wassertheil-Smoller, S ; Ness-Jensen, E ; Hveem, K ; Grioni, S ; Kaaks, R ; Sánchez, M-J ; Weiderpass, E ; Giles, GG ; Milne, RL ; Cai, Q ; Blot, WJ ; Zheng, W ; Weinstein, SJ ; Albanes, D ; Huang, W-Y ; Freedman, ND ; Kreimer, AR ; Johansson, M ; Brennan, P (American Society of Clinical Oncology (ASCO), 2022-11-01)
    PURPOSE: Seropositivity for the HPV16-E6 oncoprotein is a promising marker for early detection of oropharyngeal cancer (OPC), but the absolute risk of OPC after a positive or negative test is unknown. METHODS: We constructed an OPC risk prediction model that integrates (1) relative odds of OPC for HPV16-E6 serostatus and cigarette smoking from the human papillomavirus (HPV) Cancer Cohort Consortium (HPVC3), (2) US population risk factor data from the National Health Interview Survey, and (3) US sex-specific population rates of OPC and mortality. RESULTS: The nine HPVC3 cohorts included 365 participants with OPC with up to 10 years between blood draw and diagnosis and 5,794 controls. The estimated 10-year OPC risk for HPV16-E6 seropositive males at age 50 years was 17.4% (95% CI, 12.4 to 28.6) and at age 60 years was 27.1% (95% CI, 19.2 to 45.4). Corresponding 5-year risk estimates were 7.3% and 14.4%, respectively. For HPV16-E6 seropositive females, 10-year risk estimates were 3.6% (95% CI, 2.5 to 5.9) at age 50 years and 5.5% (95% CI, 3.8 to 9.2) at age 60 years and 5-year risk estimates were 1.5% and 2.7%, respectively. Over 30 years, after a seropositive result at age 50 years, an estimated 49.9% of males and 13.3% of females would develop OPC. By contrast, 10-year risks among HPV16-E6 seronegative people were very low, ranging from 0.01% to 0.25% depending on age, sex, and smoking status. CONCLUSION: We estimate that a substantial proportion of HPV16-E6 seropositive individuals will develop OPC, with 10-year risks of 17%-27% for males and 4%-6% for females age 50-60 years in the United States. This high level of risk may warrant periodic, minimally invasive surveillance after a positive HPV16-E6 serology test, particularly for males in high-incidence regions. However, an appropriate clinical protocol for surveillance remains to be established.
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    Circulating free testosterone and risk of aggressive prostate cancer: Prospective and Mendelian randomisation analyses in international consortia
    Watts, EL ; Perez-Cornago, A ; Fensom, GK ; Smith-Byrne, K ; Noor, U ; Andrews, CD ; Gunter, MJ ; Holmes, M ; Martin, RM ; Tsilidis, KK ; Albanes, D ; Barricarte, A ; Bueno-de-Mesquita, B ; Chen, C ; Cohn, BA ; Dimou, NL ; Ferrucci, L ; Flicker, L ; Freedman, ND ; Giles, GG ; Giovannucci, EL ; Goodman, GE ; Haiman, CA ; Hankey, GJ ; Huang, J ; Huang, W-Y ; Hurwitz, LM ; Kaaks, R ; Knekt, P ; Kubo, T ; Langseth, H ; Laughlin, G ; Le Marchand, L ; Luostarinen, T ; MacInnis, RJ ; Maenpaa, HO ; Mannisto, S ; Metter, JE ; Mikami, K ; Mucci, LA ; Olsen, AW ; Ozasa, K ; Palli, D ; Penney, KL ; Platz, EA ; Rissanen, H ; Sawada, N ; Schenk, JM ; Stattin, P ; Tamakoshi, A ; Thysell, E ; Tsai, CJ ; Tsugane, S ; Vatten, L ; Weiderpass, E ; Weinstein, SJ ; Wilkens, LR ; Yeap, BB ; Allen, NE ; Key, TJ ; Travis, RC (WILEY, 2022-10-01)
    Previous studies had limited power to assess the associations of testosterone with aggressive disease as a primary endpoint. Further, the association of genetically predicted testosterone with aggressive disease is not known. We investigated the associations of calculated free and measured total testosterone and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) with aggressive, overall and early-onset prostate cancer. In blood-based analyses, odds ratios (OR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for prostate cancer were estimated using conditional logistic regression from prospective analysis of biomarker concentrations in the Endogenous Hormones, Nutritional Biomarkers and Prostate Cancer Collaborative Group (up to 25 studies, 14 944 cases and 36 752 controls, including 1870 aggressive prostate cancers). In Mendelian randomisation (MR) analyses, using instruments identified using UK Biobank (up to 194 453 men) and outcome data from PRACTICAL (up to 79 148 cases and 61 106 controls, including 15 167 aggressive cancers), ORs were estimated using the inverse-variance weighted method. Free testosterone was associated with aggressive disease in MR analyses (OR per 1 SD = 1.23, 95% CI = 1.08-1.40). In blood-based analyses there was no association with aggressive disease overall, but there was heterogeneity by age at blood collection (OR for men aged <60 years 1.14, CI = 1.02-1.28; Phet  = .0003: inverse association for older ages). Associations for free testosterone were positive for overall prostate cancer (MR: 1.20, 1.08-1.34; blood-based: 1.03, 1.01-1.05) and early-onset prostate cancer (MR: 1.37, 1.09-1.73; blood-based: 1.08, 0.98-1.19). SHBG and total testosterone were inversely associated with overall prostate cancer in blood-based analyses, with null associations in MR analysis. Our results support free testosterone, rather than total testosterone, in the development of prostate cancer, including aggressive subgroups.