Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
Permanent URI for this collection
Search Results
1 - 10 of 9626
-
ItemLarge Discrepancies in Dementia Mortality Reported in Vital Statistics(LIPPINCOTT WILLIAMS & WILKINS, 2023-07)PURPOSE: There is limited understanding of the intercountry comparability of dementia mortality data. This study compares reported dementia mortality in national vital statistics between countries and over time. In countries with low dementia reporting, this study identifies other causes to which dementia may be misclassified. METHODS: Using the World Health Organization (WHO) Mortality Database, we calculated the ratio of reported to expected (Global Burden of Disease estimated) age-standardized dementia death rates in 90 countries from 2000 to 2019. Other causes to which dementia may be misclassified were identified as having relatively high cause fractions compared with other countries. PATIENTS: No patients were involved. RESULTS: There is a large intercountry variation in reported dementia mortality rates. The ratio of reported to expected dementia mortality exceeded 100% in high-income countries but was below 50% in other super regions. In countries with low reported dementia mortality, cardiovascular diseases, ill-defined causes, and pneumonia have relatively high cause fractions and may be misclassified from dementia. DISCUSSION: Large discrepancies in dementia mortality reporting between countries, including often implausibly low reported mortality, makes comparison extremely difficult. Improved guidance for and training of certifiers and the use of multiple cause-of-death data can help strengthen the policy utility of dementia mortality data.
-
ItemAssessing the Mortality Rate After Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty: An Observational Study to Inform Future Economic Analysis.(Elsevier BV, 2023-06-04)BACKGROUND: Previous research has focused on the perioperative or short-term (<1 year) mortality rate of total knee arthroplasty (TKA), leaving the long-term (>1 year) mortality rate unresolved. In this study, we calculated the mortality rate up to 15 years after primary TKA. METHODS: Data from the New Zealand Joint Registry from April 1998 to December 2021 were analyzed. Patients aged 45 years or older who underwent TKA for osteoarthritis were included. Mortality data were linked with national records from births, deaths, and marriages. To determine the expected mortality rates in the general population, age-sex-specific life tables from statistics New Zealand were used. Mortality rate was presented as standardized mortality ratios (SMRs) - a comparison of relative mortality rate between the TKA and general populations. In total, 98,156 patients with a median follow-up of 7.25 years (range, 0.00 to 23.74) were included. RESULTS: Over the entire follow-up period, 22,938 patients (23.4%) had died. The overall SMR for the TKA cohort was 1.08 (95% confidence interval (CI): 1.06 to 1.09), suggesting that TKA patients have an 8% higher mortality rate compared to the general population. However, a reduction in short-term mortality rate was observed for TKA patients up to 5 years post TKA (SMR 5 years post TKA; 0.59 95% CI: 0.57 to 0.60]). On the contrary, a significantly increased long-term mortality rate was observed in TKA patients with greater than 11 years of follow-up, particularly in men over the age of 75 years (SMR 11 to 15 years post TKA for males ≥ 75 years; 3.13 [95% CI: 2.95 to 3.31]). CONCLUSION: The results suggest a reduction in short-term mortality rate for patients who undergo primary TKA. However, there is an increased long-term mortality rate particularly in men over the age of 75 years. Importantly, the mortality rates observed in this study cannot be causally attributed to TKA alone.
-
ItemDifferences in Outcomes Between Initial Responders and Subsequent Responders to Health Questionnaires for Total Hip and Knee Arthroplasty: An Australian Tertiary Institutional Registry Study.(Elsevier BV, 2023-06-05)BACKGROUND: Patient-reported outcome measure (PROM) questionnaires in national arthroplasty registries often have low response rates leading to questions about data reliability. In Australia, the SMART (St. Vincent's Melbourne Arthroplasty Outcomes) registry captures all elective total hip (THA) and total knee (TKA) arthroplasty patients with an approximate 98% response rate for preoperative and 12-month PROM scores. This high response rate is due to dedicated registry staff following up patients who do not initially respond (subsequent responders). This study compared initial responders to subsequent responders to find differences in 12-month PROM outcomes for THA and TKA. METHODS: All elective THA and TKA patients for osteoarthritis from 2012 to 2021 captured by the SMART registry were included. In total, 1,333 THA and 1,340 TKA patients were included. The PROM scores were assessed using the Veterans-RAND 12 (VR12) and Western Ontario and McMasters Universities Arthritis Index (WOMAC) questionnaires. The primary outcome was differences in mean 12-month PROM scores between initial and subsequent responders. RESULTS: Baseline characteristics and PROM scores were similar between initial and subsequent responders. However, 12-month PROM scores varied significantly. The adjusted mean difference showed that for the WOMAC pain score, subsequent responders scored 3.4 points higher in the THA cohort and 7.4 points higher in the TKA cohort compared to initial responders. Significant differences were also found in other WOMAC and VR12 scores for both THA and TKA cohorts at the 12-month timepoint. CONCLUSION: This study found that significant differences in PROM outcomes postsurgery occurred in THA and TKA patients based on response to PROM questionnaires, suggesting that loss to follow-up in PROM outcomes should not be treated as missing completely at random (MCAR).
-
ItemUsing Ensemble Streamflow Forecasts to Inform Seasonal Outlooks for Water Allocations in the Murray Darling Basin(ASCE-AMER SOC CIVIL ENGINEERS, 2023-09-01)Water is a limited and highly valuable resource. In many parts of the world, water agencies allocate water according to agreed entitlement systems. The allocations are largely based on water already available in storages and rivers. Water agencies may also issue seasonal water allocation outlooks by anticipating future inflows to the storages and rivers. These outlooks are meant to assist water entitlement holders to plan for their crop planting, irrigation, and participation in water markets. Currently, these outlooks are generally based on historical inflow observations (climatology) and are often determined for a small selection of possible climatic scenarios (e.g., extreme dry, dry, average, and wet). These outlooks have large uncertainties, which require users to manage high risks themselves, leading to inefficient water use. In this study, we investigate the use of ensemble seasonal inflow forecasts to improve the production of seasonal water allocation outlooks through a case study of the Goulburn system in central Victoria, Australia. This is a complex system with active water trade both within the region and outside with the larger connected southern Murray-Darling Basin. In this case study, we integrate Australian Bureau of Meteorology's seasonal streamflow forecasts with Goulburn-Murray Water's water allocation to produce fully probabilistic water allocation outlooks. We evaluate the outlooks for three irrigation seasons from 2017 to 2020. We compare these outlooks with those produced from using inflows based on climatology only, an approach akin to the current practice of Goulburn-Murray Water. Using seasonal streamflow forecasts resulted in outlooks up to 60% (average 20%) closer to actual determinations, with uncertainty reduced by up to 65% (average 19%) Improvements were most obvious for short lead times and later in the irrigation season. This is a clear demonstration of how integration of streamflow forecasts can improve end-user products, which can lead to more efficient water use and water market participation.
-
ItemTransition to a first suicide attempt among young and middle-aged males with a history of suicidal thoughts: A two-year cohort study(Elsevier, 2023-10)INTRODUCTION: Although many studies have examined the risk and protective factors associated with suicidal behavior, little is known about the probability of transition from suicidal thoughts to suicidal attempts and the factors that distinguish those who have suicidal thoughts from those who progress to a suicide attempt. OBJECTIVES: To determine the probability and predictors of transition to a suicide attempt among young and middle-aged males with a history of suicidal thoughts but no prior history of attempting suicide. METHODS: We used data from the first two waves of the Australian Longitudinal Study on Male Health, approximately two years apart. We followed the cohort of males aged 18-55 years who, at wave 1, reported a lifetime history of suicidal ideation but no history of a prior suicide attempt. We report transition probabilities to a first suicide attempt at Wave 2 and used logistic regression models to examine baseline predictors of transition to a first suicide attempt over the two-year period among males aged 18 years and older. RESULTS: From the 1,564 males with suicidal thoughts at wave 1,140 participants (8.9%; 95% CI:7.6,10.5) reported to have had their first suicide attempt in the two-year period. In multivariate analyses, males aged 30-39 (OR=0.31; 95% CI: 0.16,0.60), 40-49 (OR=0.47; 95% CI:0.24,0.91) and 50-55 (OR=0.31; 95% CI: 0.13,0.73) all had lower odds of a first suicide attempt compared to males aged 18-29 years. The odds of a first suicide attempt were significantly higher for males who were: living in inner regional areas (ref: major cities) (OR=2.32; 95% CI: 1.33,4.04); homosexual or bisexual (OR=2.51; 95% CI: 1.17,5.36); working night shift as their main job (OR=1.75; 95% CI: 1.05,2.91); and, living with a disability (OR=1.99; 95% CI: 1.07,3.65). Clinical indicators such as symptoms of depression and illicit substance use were not significant predictors of transition to a first suicide attempt in multivariate models, nor were indicators of social connection. CONCLUSION: We estimated that 8.9% of Australian males aged 15-55 years with a history of suicidal thoughts and no prior history of suicide attempts will progress to a first suicide attempt within two-years. Neither psychological distress, illicit substance use nor social connection indicators were correlated with transition to a first suicide attempt. Rather, it was socio-demographic indicators that were associated with transition to a first suicide attempt.
-
ItemImportant considerations regarding the widespread use of doxycycline chemoprophylaxis against sexually transmitted infections(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2023-07-05)Rates of sexually transmitted infections (STIs) continue to rise across the world and interventions are essential to reduce their incidence. Past and recent studies have indicated this may be achieved using doxycycline post-exposure prophylaxis (PEP) and this has sparked considerable interest in its use. However, many unanswered questions remain as to its long-term effects and particularly potentially negative impact on human microbiomes and antimicrobial resistance among STIs, other pathogens, and commensals. In this review, we discuss seven areas of concern pertaining to the widespread use of doxycycline PEP.
-
ItemDiagnosis of pelvic inflammatory disease and barriers to conducting pelvic examinations in Australian general practice: findings from an online survey(CSIRO Publishing, 2021-04-09)Background Pelvic inflammatory disease (PID) is under-diagnosed globally, particularly in primary care, and if untreated may cause reproductive complications. This paper investigates PID diagnosis by Australian general practitioners (GPs) and barriers to their conducting a pelvic examination. METHODS: An online survey investigating Australian GPs' chlamydia management, including PID diagnosis, was conducted in 2019. From 323 respondents, 85.8% (n = 277) answered multiple-choice questions about PID and 74.6% (n = 241) answered a free-text question about barriers to conducting pelvic examinations. Using multivariable logistic regression, we identified factors associated with conducting pelvic examinations. Barriers to performing pelvic examinations were explored using thematic analysis. RESULTS: Most GPs indicated that they routinely ask female patients with a sexually transmissible infection about PID symptoms, including pelvic pain (86.2%), abnormal vaginal discharge (95.3%), abnormal vaginal bleeding (89.5%), and dyspareunia (79.6%). Over half reported routinely conducting speculum (69.0%) and bimanual pelvic (55.3%) examinations for women reporting pelvic pain. Female GPs were more likely to perform speculum [adjusted odds ratio (AOR) 4.6; 95%CI: 2.6-8.2] and bimanual pelvic examinations (AOR 3.7; 95%CI: 2.1-6.5). GPs with additional sexual health training were more likely to routinely perform speculum (AOR 2.2; 95%CI: 1.1-4.2) and bimanual pelvic examinations (AOR 2.1; 95%CI: 1.2-3.7). Barriers to pelvic examinations were patient unwillingness and/or refusal, GP gender, patient health-related factors, time pressures, and GP reluctance. CONCLUSION: Although GPs typically ask about PID symptoms when managing patients with chlamydia, they are not consistently able or willing to perform pelvic examinations to support a diagnosis, potentially reducing capacity to diagnose PID.
-
ItemEnvironmental scan of suicide prevention activity in Australia: Summary Report(Centre for Mental Health, University of Melbourne, 2023-07)The National Suicide Prevention Office provided a grant to the University of Melbourne’s Centre for Mental Health to conduct an environmental scan of the government-led suicide prevention system in Australia to contribute to its workplan, particularly its development of the National Suicide Prevention Strategy. The scan was conducted from August 2022 to January 2023, utilising three key methods: a review of documents, interviews with key informants, and a review of programs and services. Findings demonstrated that Australia’s suicide prevention efforts are significant but that there are many opportunities to further progress suicide prevention and response efforts.
-
ItemHealth services : knowledge, use and satisfaction of Afghan, Iranian and Iraqi settlers in Australia(Radcliffe Publishing, 2007)This paper reports the findings of a study examining the knowledge of, use of and satisfaction with local primary healthcare services reported by new arrivals to Australia from Iran, Iraq and Afghanistan. The study sample consisted of a purposive sample of 98 new settlers from the selected countries and used a semi-structured questionnaire and focus groups to attain information. Key findings were that friends and family were the greatest sources of health provider information and there was a lack of both more general health information and understanding of the health system. While study participants were able to access primary healthcare services and were generally satisfied, several major operational deficiencies were reported. General practitioners (GPs) were the major health providers for these groups. Health-seeking behaviours were strongly influenced by the country of birth in comparison with the other examined factors, and experiences of health service encounters also varied greatly between countries of birth. The facility’s proximity to the participant’s home was a strong influence in the selection of health services. The researchers recommend that a network of appropriately supported and staffed community health centres and/ or GP clinics is needed in areas where there are high concentrations of refugees and immigrants.
-
ItemConsidering equity and cost-effectiveness in assessing a parenting intervention to promote early childhood development in rural Vietnam(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2023-09-18)Considering equity in early childhood development (ECD) is important to ensure healthy development for every child. Equity-informative cost-effectiveness analysis can further guide decision makers to maximize outcomes with limited resources while promoting equity. This cost-effectiveness study aimed to examine the equity impacts of a multicomponent ECD intervention in rural Vietnam. We estimated the cost-effectiveness of the intervention with a 30-month time horizon from the service provider and household perspectives with equity considerations. Data were from a cluster-randomized controlled trial comparing the intervention with the local standard of care. The incremental cost-effectiveness ratios (ICERs) per child cognitive development score gained were estimated by household wealth quintile and maternal education level, adjusted for cluster effects and baseline characteristics such as maternal parity and age. A 3% discount rate was applied to costs, and non-parametric cluster bootstrapping was used to examine uncertainty around ICERs. Children in the intervention had higher cognitive development scores than those in the control arm across all subgroups. Based on intervention recurrent cost, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children from the poorest quintile (-US$6) compared to those from the richest quintile (US$16). Similarly, the ICER per cognitive development score gained was lower in children whose mothers had the lowest education level (-US$0.02) than those with mothers who had the highest education level (US$7). Even though our findings should be interpreted with caution due to the insufficient study power, the findings suggest that the intervention could promote equity while improving child cognitive development with greater cost-effectiveness in disadvantaged groups.