Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemMolecular comparison of interval and screen-detected breast cancers(WILEY, 2019-06)
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ItemUptake of adjuvant breast cancer treatments recommended by multi-disciplinary meetings(WILEY, 2018-01-23)BACKGROUND: Adjuvant therapy for breast cancer is routinely discussed and recommended in multi-disciplinary meetings (MDMs). Current literature explores how treatments received by patients differ from national guidelines; however, it does not explore whether treatment is concordant with MDMs. This study provides an Australian perspective on the uptake of MDM recommendations and reasons for non-concordance. METHODS: A retrospective cohort study of patients with breast cancer presented at The Royal Melbourne Hospital MDM in 2010 and 2014 to investigate the concordance between MDM recommendations and treatment received. RESULTS: The study group comprised 441 patients (161 from 2010 and 280 from 2014). A total of 375 patients were included in the analyses. Overall, 82% of patients had perfect concordance between recommended and received treatment for all modes of adjuvant therapy. Concordance to endocrine therapy was higher for invasive cancers than ductal carcinoma in situ (97% versus 81%, P < 0.0001). Concordance to radiotherapy was high and did not differ according to type of cancer or surgery (ranging from 88 to 91%). Concordance to chemotherapy recommendations was high overall (92%) and did not vary with nodal status. Women aged over 65 years were least likely to be recommended for adjuvant therapy but most likely to concordant with the recommendation. CONCLUSIONS: Uptake of MDM-recommended treatments is high. There is a minority of patients in whom MDM recommendations are not followed, highlighting that there are extra steps between recommendations at an MDM and decisions with patients. More attention to this issue is appropriate, and the reasons for non-concordance warrant further study.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableThe impact of the Covid-19 pandemic on breast cancer early detection and screening(ACADEMIC PRESS INC ELSEVIER SCIENCE, 2021-10)The COVID-19 pandemic affects mortality and morbidity, with disruptions expected to continue for some time, with access to timely cancer-related services a concern. For breast cancer, early detection and treatment is key to improved survival and longer-term quality of life. Health services generally have been strained and in many settings with population breast mammography screening, efforts to diagnose and treat breast cancers earlier have been paused or have had reduced capacity. The resulting delays to diagnosis and treatment may lead to more intensive treatment requirements and, potentially, increased mortality. Modelled evaluations can support responses to the pandemic by estimating short- and long-term outcomes for various scenarios. Multiple calibrated and validated models exist for breast cancer screening, and some have been applied in 2020 to estimate the impact of breast screening disruptions and compare options for recovery, in a range of international settings. On behalf of the Covid and Cancer Modelling Consortium (CCGMC) Working Group 2 (Breast Cancer), we summarize and provide examples of such in a range of settings internationally, and propose priorities for future modelling exercises. International expert collaborations from the CCGMC Working Group 2 (Breast Cancer) will conduct analyses and modelling studies needed to inform key stakeholders recovery efforts in order to mitigate the impact of the pandemic on early diagnosis and treatment of breast cancer.
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ItemHow has COVID-19 impacted cancer screening? Adaptation of services and the future outlook in Australia(SAX INST, 2020-12)The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) pandemic has caused major disruptions to many aspects of life in Australia and globally. This includes actual and potential future impacts on Australia's three national screening programs for breast, bowel and cervical cancer. These programs aim to improve cancer outcomes through an organised approach to the early detection of cancer and precancer in asymptomatic populations. The design of each program varies according to biological differences in the three cancers, the available screening technology, the target population, and variations in their administration of Australia's federal, state and territory jurisdictions. The observed and potential impacts of COVID-19 on these programs, and on related activities such as the current national enquiry into lung cancer screening feasibility, therefore vary significantly. This article focuses on observed short-term impacts, adaptations and the longer-term outlook for cancer screening in relation to COVID-19. It summarises potential responses to minimise the harms of disruptions caused by COVID-19, and highlights research and policy opportunities in the pandemic response and recovery which could inform and accelerate optimisation of cancer screening in the long term.
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ItemExpenditure and resource utilisation for cervical screening in Australia(BMC, 2012-12-05)BACKGROUND: The National Cervical Screening Program in Australia currently recommends that women aged 18-69 years are screened with conventional cytology every 2 years. Publicly funded HPV vaccination was introduced in 2007, and partly as a consequence, a renewal of the screening program that includes a review of screening recommendations has recently been announced. This study aimed to provide a baseline for such a review by quantifying screening program resource utilisation and costs in 2010. METHODS: A detailed model of current cervical screening practice in Australia was constructed and we used data from the Victorian Cervical Cytology Registry to model age-specific compliance with screening and follow-up. We applied model-derived rate estimates to the 2010 Australian female population to calculate costs and numbers of colposcopies, biopsies, treatments for precancer and cervical cancers in that year, assuming that the numbers of these procedures were not yet substantially impacted by vaccination. RESULTS: The total cost of the screening program in 2010 (excluding administrative program overheads) was estimated to be A$194.8M. We estimated that a total of 1.7 million primary screening smears costing $96.7M were conducted, a further 188,900 smears costing $10.9M were conducted to follow-up low grade abnormalities, 70,900 colposcopy and 34,100 histological evaluations together costing $21.2M were conducted, and about 18,900 treatments for precancerous lesions were performed (including retreatments), associated with a cost of $45.5M for treatment and post-treatment follow-up. We also estimated that $20.5M was spent on work-up and treatment for approximately 761 women diagnosed with invasive cervical cancer. Overall, an estimated $23 was spent in 2010 for each adult woman in Australia on cervical screening program-related activities. CONCLUSIONS: Approximately half of the total cost of the screening program is spent on delivery of primary screening tests; but the introduction of HPV vaccination, new technologies, increasing the interval and changing the age range of screening is expected to have a substantial impact on this expenditure, as well as having some impact on follow-up and management costs. These estimates provide a benchmark for future assessment of the impact of changes to screening program recommendations to the costs of cervical screening in Australia.
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ItemThe financial impact of a breast cancer detected within and outside of screening: lessons from the Australian Lifepool cohort(WILEY, 2020-06)OBJECTIVE: To determine the government and out-of-pocket community costs (out-of-hospital medical services and prescription medicines) associated with screen-detected and community-detected cancers (i.e. cancers detected outside of Australia's organised screening program [BreastScreen]). METHODS: We analyse administrative data on government-subsidised medical services and prescription medicines for 568 Victorian women diagnosed with breast cancer or ductal carcinoma in situ (DCIS). Using multivariable regression analysis, we estimate the government and out-of-pocket community costs incurred in the three years after diagnosis for screen-detected cancers and community-detected cancers. Additionally, we estimate the government costs associated with diagnosis within and outside of BreastScreen. RESULTS: Average government costs for breast cancer diagnosis were similar within and outside of BreastScreen [$808 (lower limit 676; upper limit 940) vs $837 (95%CI 671; 1,003) respectively]; however, women with community-detected cancers incurred an additional $254 (95%CI 175; 332) out-of-pocket. Controlling for differences in known cancer characteristics, compared to screen-detected cancers, community-detected breast cancers were associated with an additional $2,622 (95%CI 644; 4,776) in government expenditure in the three years following diagnosis. Adverse cancer characteristics that were more prevalent in community-detected cancers (high grade, lymph node involvement, HER2 positive receptor status) were associated with increased government and out-of-pocket costs. CONCLUSIONS: Community-detected breast cancers were associated with increased government and out-of-pocket costs. Implications for public health: These costs should be considered when evaluating current and alternative breast cancer screening strategies.
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ItemCharacteristics of Mammographic Breast Density and Associated Factors for Chinese Women: Results from an Automated Measurement(HINDAWI LTD, 2019)BACKGROUND: Characteristics of mammographic density for Chinese women are understudied. This study aims to identify factors associated with mammographic density in China using a quantitative method. METHODS: Mammographic density was measured for a total of 1071 (84 with and 987 without breast cancer) women using an automatic algorithm AutoDensity. Pearson tests examined relationships between density and continuous variables and t-tests compared differences of mean density values between groupings of categorical variables. Linear models were built using multiple regression. RESULTS: Percentage density and dense area were positively associated with each other for cancer-free (r=0.487, p<0.001) and cancer groups (r=0.446, p<0.001), respectively. For women without breast cancer, weight and BMI (p<0.001) were found to be negatively associated (r=-0.237, r=-0.272) with percentage density whereas they were found to be positively associated (r=0.110, r=0.099) with dense area; age at mammography was found to be associated with percentage density (r=-0.202, p<0.001) and dense area (r=-0.086, p<0.001) but did not add any prediction within multivariate models; lower percentage density was found within women with secondary education background or below compared to women with tertiary education. For women with breast cancer, percentage density demonstrated similar relationships with that of cancer-free women whilst breast area was the only factor associated with dense area (r=0.739, p<0.001). CONCLUSION: This is the first time that mammographic density was measured by a quantitative method for women in China and identified associations should be useful to health policy makers who are responsible for introducing effective models of breast cancer prevention and diagnosis.
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ItemThe TP53 mutation rate differs in breast cancers that arise in women with high or low mammographic density(NATURE RESEARCH, 2020-08-07)Mammographic density (MD) influences breast cancer risk, but how this is mediated is unknown. Molecular differences between breast cancers arising in the context of the lowest and highest quintiles of mammographic density may identify the mechanism through which MD drives breast cancer development. Women diagnosed with invasive or in situ breast cancer where MD measurement was also available (n = 842) were identified from the Lifepool cohort of >54,000 women participating in population-based mammographic screening. This group included 142 carcinomas in the lowest quintile of MD and 119 carcinomas in the highest quintile. Clinico-pathological and family history information were recorded. Tumor DNA was collected where available (n = 56) and sequenced for breast cancer predisposition and driver gene mutations, including copy number alterations. Compared to carcinomas from low-MD breasts, those from high-MD breasts were significantly associated with a younger age at diagnosis and features associated with poor prognosis. Low- and high-MD carcinomas matched for grade, histological subtype, and hormone receptor status were compared for somatic genetic features. Low-MD carcinomas had a significantly increased frequency of TP53 mutations, higher homologous recombination deficiency, higher fraction of the genome altered, and more copy number gains on chromosome 1q and losses on 17p. While high-MD carcinomas showed enrichment of tumor-infiltrating lymphocytes in the stroma. The data demonstrate that when tumors were matched for confounding clinico-pathological features, a proportion in the lowest quintile of MD appear biologically distinct, reflective of microenvironment differences between the lowest and highest quintiles of MD.
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ItemBreast cancer screening and overdiagnosis(WILEY, 2021-08-15)Overdiagnosis is a harmful consequence of screening which is particularly challenging to estimate. An unbiased setting to measure overdiagnosis in breast cancer screening requires comparative data from a screened and an unscreened cohort for at least 30 years. Such randomised data will not become available, leaving us with observational data over shorter time periods and outcomes of modelling. This collaborative effort of the International Cancer Screening Network quantified the variation in estimated breast cancer overdiagnosis in organised programmes with evaluation of both observed and simulated data, and presented examples of how modelling can provide additional insights. Reliable observational data, analysed with study design accounting for methodological pitfalls, and modelling studies with different approaches, indicate that overdiagnosis accounts for less than 10% of invasive breast cancer cases in a screening target population of women aged 50 to 69. Estimates above this level are likely to derive from inaccuracies in study design. The widely discrepant estimates of overdiagnosis reported from observational data could substantially be reduced by use of a cohort study design with at least 10 years of follow-up after screening stops. In contexts where concomitant opportunistic screening or gradual implementation of screening occurs, and data on valid comparison groups are not readily available, modelling of screening intervention becomes an advantageous option to obtain reliable estimates of breast cancer overdiagnosis.
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ItemMeasurement challenge: protocol for international case-control comparison of mammographic measures that predict breast cancer risk(BMJ PUBLISHING GROUP, 2019-12)INTRODUCTION: For women of the same age and body mass index, increased mammographic density is one of the strongest predictors of breast cancer risk. There are multiple methods of measuring mammographic density and other features in a mammogram that could potentially be used in a screening setting to identify and target women at high risk of developing breast cancer. However, it is unclear which measurement method provides the strongest predictor of breast cancer risk. METHODS AND ANALYSIS: The measurement challenge has been established as an international resource to offer a common set of anonymised mammogram images for measurement and analysis. To date, full field digital mammogram images and core data from 1650 cases and 1929 controls from five countries have been collated. The measurement challenge is an ongoing collaboration and we are continuing to expand the resource to include additional image sets across different populations (from contributors) and to compare additional measurement methods (by challengers). The intended use of the measurement challenge resource is for refinement and validation of new and existing mammographic measurement methods. The measurement challenge resource provides a standardised dataset of mammographic images and core data that enables investigators to directly compare methods of measuring mammographic density or other mammographic features in case/control sets of both raw and processed images, for the purposes of the comparing their predictions of breast cancer risk. ETHICS AND DISSEMINATION: Challengers and contributors are required to enter a Research Collaboration Agreement with the University of Melbourne prior to participation in the measurement challenge. The Challenge database of collated data and images are stored in a secure data repository at the University of Melbourne. Ethics approval for the measurement challenge is held at University of Melbourne (HREC ID 0931343.3).