Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemSecond to fourth digit ratio (2D: 4D), breast cancer risk factors, and breast cancer risk: a prospective cohort study(NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2012-10-23)BACKGROUND: We aimed to assess whether 2D:4D measures are associated with breast cancer risk. METHODS: We derived the ratio of the lengths of the index and ring fingers (2D:4D), and right minus left 2D:4D (Δ(r-l)) from digit lengths measured from photocopies of participants' hands collected during a recent follow-up of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, a prospective study including 24 469 women. Of the 9044 women with available data, we identified 573 incident breast cancer cases. Hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for a one standard deviation difference in 2D:4D measures were obtained from Weibull survival models, and linear regression models were used to examine potential associations between 2D:4D measures and age at menarche and menopause. RESULTS: We found a direct association between left 2D:4D and breast cancer risk, an inverse association between Δ(r-l) and risk of breast cancer, but no association between right 2D:4D and breast cancer risk. Among breast cancer cases, both right 2D:4D and Δ(r-l) were inversely associated with age at diagnosis. We also observed associations between both right 2D:4D and Δ(r-l) and age at menopause, with increasing digit ratio measures related to earlier mean age at menopause. CONCLUSION: Digit ratio measures might be associated with breast cancer risk and age at onset of breast cancer. If confirmed in other studies, this suggests that lower exposure or sensitivity to prenatal testosterone might be associated with lower risk of breast cancer.
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ItemCan genetic associations change with age? CFH and age-related macular degeneration(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2012-12-01)Genetic variation in the gene encoding complement factor H (CFH) on chromosome 1q31 has repeatedly been associated with an increased risk of age-related macular degeneration (AMD); however, previous studies have had inadequate numbers of participants across a sufficiently wide age range to determine whether the association varies by age. We conducted a genetic case-control study using data from 2294 cases and 2294 controls selected from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, matched on age, sex and region of origin. Four consistently replicated CFH single-nucleotide polymorphisms (SNPs) were genotyped: rs1061170 (Y402H), rs2274700, rs393955 and rs800292; their relationship with AMD prevalence was determined across the age range 48-86. A difference in genotype frequencies was seen across age groups, where the low-risk homozygote prevalence rose with each increasing age group. Associations with early AMD were strongly modified by age for three of the four SNPs (interaction P-value: 0.01-0.00003). An inverse association between the high-risk homozygote for each SNP and early AMD was observed in the younger age groups [odds ratios (OR) range 0.37-0.48 for age <55], reversing to a positive association with increasing age (OR 1.87-2.8 for age >75). The direction of associations for this gene change was from inverse to risk with increasing age. These findings have important implications for predictive models for AMD and potentially other age-related diseases which extrapolate risks from older cohorts, as they assume homogeneity of association by age, which might not exist.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableScreening and Breast Cancer Mortality-Response(AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH, 2012-12)
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ItemAnalysis of Xq27-28 linkage in the international consortium for prostate cancer genetics (ICPCG) families(BMC, 2012-06-19)BACKGROUND: Genetic variants are likely to contribute to a portion of prostate cancer risk. Full elucidation of the genetic etiology of prostate cancer is difficult because of incomplete penetrance and genetic and phenotypic heterogeneity. Current evidence suggests that genetic linkage to prostate cancer has been found on several chromosomes including the X; however, identification of causative genes has been elusive. METHODS: Parametric and non-parametric linkage analyses were performed using 26 microsatellite markers in each of 11 groups of multiple-case prostate cancer families from the International Consortium for Prostate Cancer Genetics (ICPCG). Meta-analyses of the resultant family-specific linkage statistics across the entire 1,323 families and in several predefined subsets were then performed. RESULTS: Meta-analyses of linkage statistics resulted in a maximum parametric heterogeneity lod score (HLOD) of 1.28, and an allele-sharing lod score (LOD) of 2.0 in favor of linkage to Xq27-q28 at 138 cM. In subset analyses, families with average age at onset less than 65 years exhibited a maximum HLOD of 1.8 (at 138 cM) versus a maximum regional HLOD of only 0.32 in families with average age at onset of 65 years or older. Surprisingly, the subset of families with only 2-3 affected men and some evidence of male-to-male transmission of prostate cancer gave the strongest evidence of linkage to the region (HLOD = 3.24, 134 cM). For this subset, the HLOD was slightly increased (HLOD = 3.47 at 134 cM) when families used in the original published report of linkage to Xq27-28 were excluded. CONCLUSIONS: Although there was not strong support for linkage to the Xq27-28 region in the complete set of families, the subset of families with earlier age at onset exhibited more evidence of linkage than families with later onset of disease. A subset of families with 2-3 affected individuals and with some evidence of male to male disease transmission showed stronger linkage signals. Our results suggest that the genetic basis for prostate cancer in our families is much more complex than a single susceptibility locus on the X chromosome, and that future explorations of the Xq27-28 region should focus on the subset of families identified here with the strongest evidence of linkage to this region.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableInference about Causation from Examination of Familial Confounding: Application to Longitudinal Twin Data on Mammographic Density Measures that Predict Breast Cancer Risk(AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH, 2012-07)BACKGROUND: Mammographic density is a strong risk factor for breast cancer. It is unknown whether there are different causes of variation in mammographic density at different ages. METHODS: Mammograms and questionnaires were obtained on average 8 years apart from 327 Australian female twin pairs (204 monozygous and 123 dizygous). Mammographic dense area and percentage dense area were measured using a computer-assisted method. The correlational structure of the longitudinal twin data was estimated under a multivariate normal model using FISHER. Inference about causation from examination of familial confounding was made by regressing each twin's recent mammographic density measure against one or both of her and her co-twin's past measures. RESULTS: For square root dense area and percentage dense area (age- and body mass index-adjusted), the correlations over time within twins were 0.86 and 0.82, and the cross-twin correlations were 0.71 and 0.65 for monozygous pairs and 0.25 and 0.20 for dizygous pairs, respectively. As a predictor of a twin's recent dense area, the regression coefficient (SE) for the co-twin's past dense area reduced after adjusting for her own past measure from 0.84 (0.03) to 0.09 (0.03) for monozygous pairs and from 0.63 (0.04) to 0.04 (0.03) for dizygous pairs. Corresponding estimates for percentage dense area were 0.73 (0.04), 0.10 (0.03), 0.42 (0.05), and 0.03 (0.03). CONCLUSION: Mammographic density measures are highly correlated over time and the familial/genetic components of their variation are established before mid-life. IMPACT: Mammographic density of young women could provide a means for breast cancer control.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableMammographic Screening and Breast Cancer Mortality: A Case-Control Study and Meta-analysis(AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH, 2012-09)BACKGROUND: Observational studies are necessary to assess the impact of population screening on breast cancer mortality. While some ecological studies have notably found little or no association, case-control studies consistently show strong inverse associations, but they are sometimes ignored, perhaps due to theoretical biases arising from the study design. We conducted a case-control study of breast cancer deaths in Western Australia to evaluate the effect of participation in the BreastScreen Australia program, paying particular attention to potential sources of bias, and undertook an updated meta-analysis of case-control studies. METHODS: Our study included 427 cases (women who died from breast cancer), each matched to up to 10 controls. We estimated the association between screening participation and breast cancer mortality, quantifying the effect of potential sources of bias on our findings, including selection bias, information bias, and confounding. We also conducted a meta-analysis of published case-control studies. RESULTS: The OR for participation in the Western Australian BreastScreen program in relation to death from breast cancer was 0.48 [95% confidence interval (CI), 0.38-0.59; P < 0.001]. We were unable to identify biases that could negate this finding: sensitivity analyses generated ORs from 0.45 to 0.52. Our meta-analysis yielded an OR of 0.51 (95% CI, 0.46-0.55). CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest an average 49% reduction in breast cancer mortality for women who are screened. In practice, theoretical biases have little effect on estimates from case-control studies. IMPACT: Case-control studies, such as ours, provide robust and consistent evidence that screening benefits women who choose to be screened.
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ItemNo Preview Available20/20-Alcohol and Age-related Macular Degeneration: The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study(OXFORD UNIV PRESS INC, 2012-08-15)Little evidence exists regarding associations between age-related macular degeneration (AMD) and moderate alcohol consumption, patterns of consumption, or different types of alcoholic beverage. The authors examined associations between AMD prevalence and alcohol intake using 20,963 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study aged 40-69 years at baseline (1990-1994). Participants' alcohol consumption was determined from a structured interview at baseline. At follow-up from 2003 to 2007, digital macula photographs of both eyes were taken and evaluated for early and late AMD signs. Drinking more than 20 g of alcohol per day was associated with an approximate 20% increase in the odds of early AMD (odds ratio = 1.21, 95% confidence interval: 1.06, 1.38; P = 0.004) when compared with those who reported no alcohol intake at baseline, having adjusted for sex, age, smoking, country of birth, education, physical activity, and energy from food. This positive association was apparent for wine, beer, and spirits. The estimates were similar for both sexes. The odds ratio for those drinking more than 20 g of alcohol per day for late AMD was 1.44 (95% confidence interval: 0.85, 2.45; P = 0.17). These results show a modest association between alcohol consumption and increased AMD risk.
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ItemThe relationship between retinal vessel calibre and knee cartilage and BMLs(BMC, 2012-12-20)BACKGROUND: Whether the increase in vascular disease prevalence and mortality in OA populations is a result of co-occurrence of cardiovascular disease and OA, which are both common in the older population, is due to OA treatments or to the common association with reduced physical activity and/or obesity is unclear. One way to explore this non-invasively is to examine the cross-sectional relationship between changes in retinal microvasculature, which have been shown to be markers of generalized vascular pathology, and knee structural changes in an asymptomatic community-based population. METHODS: A community sample of 289 (61% women) aged 50-79 years with no knee symptoms underwent magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) of their dominant knee in 2003. Cartilage volume and bone marrow lesions (BMLs) were determined. All subjects also had retinal photographs taken from which retinal arteriolar and venular diameters were determined and summarized as the central retinal arteriolar equivalent (CRAE) and the central retinal venular equivalent (CRVE). RESULTS: Retinal venular diameter was significantly wider in subjects with a BML compared with subjects without a BML (mean (SD) 214.2 (2.8) μm versus 207.5 (1.1) μm respectively independent of age, gender and BMI. A trend for decreased medial tibial cartilage with increasing CRAE was also observed (regression coefficient -2.70 μl, 95%CI-5.74, 0.5, p=0.08). CONCLUSION: These findings suggest that vascular pathology, indicative of inflammatory processes, is associated with early structural knee changes. The role of micro-vascular changes in the pathogenesis of OA warrants further investigation.
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ItemA review of the reporting and handling of missing data in cohort studies with repeated assessment of exposure measures(BMC, 2012-07-11)BACKGROUND: Retaining participants in cohort studies with multiple follow-up waves is difficult. Commonly, researchers are faced with the problem of missing data, which may introduce biased results as well as a loss of statistical power and precision. The STROBE guidelines von Elm et al. (Lancet, 370:1453-1457, 2007); Vandenbroucke et al. (PLoS Med, 4:e297, 2007) and the guidelines proposed by Sterne et al. (BMJ, 338:b2393, 2009) recommend that cohort studies report on the amount of missing data, the reasons for non-participation and non-response, and the method used to handle missing data in the analyses. We have conducted a review of publications from cohort studies in order to document the reporting of missing data for exposure measures and to describe the statistical methods used to account for the missing data. METHODS: A systematic search of English language papers published from January 2000 to December 2009 was carried out in PubMed. Prospective cohort studies with a sample size greater than 1,000 that analysed data using repeated measures of exposure were included. RESULTS: Among the 82 papers meeting the inclusion criteria, only 35 (43%) reported the amount of missing data according to the suggested guidelines. Sixty-eight papers (83%) described how they dealt with missing data in the analysis. Most of the papers excluded participants with missing data and performed a complete-case analysis (n=54, 66%). Other papers used more sophisticated methods including multiple imputation (n=5) or fully Bayesian modeling (n=1). Methods known to produce biased results were also used, for example, Last Observation Carried Forward (n=7), the missing indicator method (n=1), and mean value substitution (n=3). For the remaining 14 papers, the method used to handle missing data in the analysis was not stated. CONCLUSIONS: This review highlights the inconsistent reporting of missing data in cohort studies and the continuing use of inappropriate methods to handle missing data in the analysis. Epidemiological journals should invoke the STROBE guidelines as a framework for authors so that the amount of missing data and how this was accounted for in the analysis is transparent in the reporting of cohort studies.