Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableTrajectories of body mass index from early adulthood to late midlife and incidence of total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: findings from a prospective cohort study(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2023-03)OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories from early adulthood to late midlife and risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis. METHODS: 24,368 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with weight collected during 1990-1994, 1995-1998, and 2003-2007, recalled weight at age 18-21 years, and height measured during 1990-1994 were included. Incident TKA from 2003 to 2007 to December 2018 was determined by linking cohort records to the National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Using group-based trajectory modelling, six distinct trajectories (TR) of BMI from early adulthood (age 18-21 years) to late midlife (approximately 62 years) were identified: lower normal to normal BMI (TR1; 19.7% population), normal BMI to borderline overweight (TR2; 36.7%), normal BMI to overweight (TR3; 26.8%), overweight to borderline obese (TR4; 3.5%), normal BMI to class 1 obesity (TR5; 10.1%), overweight to class 2 obesity (TR6; 3.2%). Over 12.4 years, 1,328 (5.4%) had TKA. The hazard ratios for TKA increased in all TR compared to TR1 [from TR2: 2.03 (95% CI 1.64-2.52) to TR6: 8.59 (6.44-11.46)]. 28.4% of TKA could be prevented if individuals followed the trajectory one lower, an average weight reduction of 8-12 kg from early adulthood to late midlife, saving $AUS 373 million/year. Most reduction would occur in TR2 (population attributable fraction 37.9%, 95% CI 26.7-47.3%) and TR3 (26.8%, 20.0-31.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to late midlife in order to reduce overweight/obesity has the potential to significantly reduce the cost and burden of TKA.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableTrajectories of body mass index from early adulthood to late midlife and incidence of total knee arthroplasty for osteoarthritis: findings from a prospective cohort study(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2023-02-20)OBJECTIVE: To examine the association between body mass index (BMI) trajectories from early adulthood to late midlife and risk of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis. METHODS: 24,368 participants from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study with weight collected during 1990-1994, 1995-1998, and 2003-2007, recalled weight at age 18-21 years, and height measured during 1990-1994 were included. Incident TKA from 2003 to 2007 to December 2018 was determined by linking cohort records to the National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Using group-based trajectory modelling, six distinct trajectories (TR) of BMI from early adulthood (age 18-21 years) to late midlife (approximately 62 years) were identified: lower normal to normal BMI (TR1; 19.7% population), normal BMI to borderline overweight (TR2; 36.7%), normal BMI to overweight (TR3; 26.8%), overweight to borderline obese (TR4; 3.5%), normal BMI to class 1 obesity (TR5; 10.1%), overweight to class 2 obesity (TR6; 3.2%). Over 12.4 years, 1,328 (5.4%) had TKA. The hazard ratios for TKA increased in all TR compared to TR1 [from TR2: 2.03 (95% CI 1.64-2.52) to TR6: 8.59 (6.44-11.46)]. 28.4% of TKA could be prevented if individuals followed the trajectory one lower, an average weight reduction of 8-12 kg from early adulthood to late midlife, saving $AUS 373 million/year. Most reduction would occur in TR2 (population attributable fraction 37.9%, 95% CI 26.7-47.3%) and TR3 (26.8%, 20.0-31.2%). CONCLUSIONS: Prevention of weight gain from young adulthood to late midlife in order to reduce overweight/obesity has the potential to significantly reduce the cost and burden of TKA.
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ItemAssociation between circulating 25-hydroxyvitamin D concentrations and hip replacement for osteoarthritis: a prospective cohort study(BMC, 2021-10-19)BACKGROUND: To examine the association between circulating 25(OH)D concentrations and incidence of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in a prospective cohort study. METHODS: This study examined a random sample of 2651 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who had 25(OH)D concentrations measured from dried blood spots collected in 1990-1994. Participants who underwent total hip replacement for osteoarthritis between January 2001 and December 2018 were identified by linking the cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. Cox proportional hazard regression was used to estimate hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in relation to 25(OH)D concentrations, adjusted for confounders. RESULTS: Eighty-six men and eighty-seven women had a total hip replacement for osteoarthritis. Compared with men in the lowest (1st) quartile of 25(OH)D concentration, the HR for total hip replacement was 2.32 (95% CI 1.05, 5.13) for those in the 2nd quartile, 2.77 (95% CI 1.28, 6.00) for those in the 3rd quartile, and 1.73 (95% CI 0.75, 4.02) for those in the highest quartile of 25(OH)D concentrations (p for trend 0.02). There was little evidence of an association in women. CONCLUSIONS: Higher circulating 25(OH)D concentrations were associated with an increased risk of total hip replacement for osteoarthritis in men but not in women. Although the underlying mechanism warrants further investigation, our findings highlight the need to determine the optimal levels of circulating 25(OH)D to reduce the risk of hip osteoarthritis.
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ItemFemale Reproductive and Hormonal Factors and Incidence of Primary Total Knee Arthroplasty Due to Osteoarthritis(WILEY, 2018-07)OBJECTIVE: To examine the associations of female reproductive and hormonal factors with incidence of total knee arthroplasty (TKA) for osteoarthritis (OA), and to determine whether the associations differ according to overweight/obesity status. METHODS: This study included 22,289 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Data on age at menarche, pregnancy, parity, years of menstruation, oral contraceptive (OC) use, menopausal status, and hormone replacement therapy (HRT) were collected in 1990-1994. Incidence of TKA during 2001-2013 was determined by linking cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. All analyses were adjusted for age, body mass index (BMI) at midlife, change in BMI (from early reproductive age to midlife), country of birth, physical activity, smoking, and education level. RESULTS: Over the course of 12.7 years, 1,208 TKAs for OA were identified. Ever being pregnant was associated with increased risk of TKA (hazard ratio [HR] 1.32 [95% confidence interval (95% CI) 1.06-1.63]). Parity was positively associated with risk of TKA (P for trend = 0.003). OC users had increased risk of TKA compared with non-users (for OC use of <5 years, HR 1.25 [95% CI 1.08-1.45]; for OC use of ≥5 years, HR 1.17 [95% CI 1.00-1.37]). A 1-year increase in menstruation was associated with a 1% decrease in risk of TKA (HR 0.99 [95% CI 0.97-0.99]). These associations remained significant only in women of normal weight at early reproductive age. Current HRT users had increased risk of TKA compared with non-users (HR 1.37 [95% CI 1.14-1.64]); the association was significant only in non-obese women at midlife. CONCLUSION: Reproductive and hormonal factors were associated with risk of knee OA. These associations remained significant in women of normal weight at early reproductive age and in non-obese women at midlife. Further work is needed to understand the complex effect of these factors on knee OA.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableAssociation between index-to-ring finger length ratio and risk of severe knee and hip osteoarthritis requiring total joint replacement(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2014-07)OBJECTIVE: The data are conflicting for the association between the index-to-ring finger length ratio (2D:4D) and the risk of OA. The aim of this cohort study was to examine the relationship between 2D:4D and the risk of severe knee and hip OA requiring total joint replacement. METHODS: A total of 14 511 participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study had 2D:4D assessed from hand photocopies. The incidence of total knee replacement and total hip replacement between 2001 and 2011 was determined by linking the cohort records to the Australian Orthopaedic Association National Joint Replacement Registry. RESULTS: Over an average 10.5 years of follow-up, 580 participants had total knee replacement and 499 had total hip replacement. Greater right 2D:4D [hazard ratio (HR) 0.91 for a s.d. increase in 2D:4D, 95% CI 0.84, 0.99, P = 0.03] and average right and left 2D:4D (HR 0.91 for a s.d. increase in 2D:4D, 95% CI 0.84, 0.99, P = 0.02) were associated with a reduced incidence of total knee replacement. These associations persisted when participants whose fingers had any features that might have affected the validity of 2D:4D measurements were excluded. No significant associations were observed between 2D:4D and the incidence of total hip replacement. CONCLUSION: A lower 2D:4D is associated with an increased risk of severe knee OA requiring total knee replacement, but not the risk of severe hip OA. The underlying mechanisms for the association warrant further investigation.
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ItemEarly cartilage abnormalities at the hip are associated with obesity and body composition measures - a 3.0T MRI community-based study(BMC, 2015-04-22)INTRODUCTION: Although obesity is a risk factor for hip osteoarthritis (OA), the role of body composition, if any, is unclear. This study examines whether the body mass index (BMI) and body composition are associated with hip cartilage changes using magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) in community-based adults. METHODS: 141 community-based participants with no clinical hip disease, including OA, had BMI and body composition (fat mass and fat free mass) measured at baseline (1990 to 1994), and BMI measured and 3.0 T MRI performed at follow-up (2009-2010). Femoral head cartilage volume was measured and femoral head cartilage defects were scored in the different hip regions. RESULTS: For females, baseline BMI (β = -26 mm(3), 95% Confidence interval (CI) -47 to -6 mm(3), p = 0.01) and fat mass (β = -11 mm(3), 95% CI -21 to -1 mm(3), p = 0.03) were negatively associated with femoral head cartilage volume. Also, while increased baseline fat mass was associated with an increased risk of cartilage defects in the central superolateral region of the femoral head (Odds Ratio (OR) = 1.08, 95% CI 1.00-1.15, p = 0.04), increased baseline fat free mass was associated with a reduced risk of cartilage defects in this region (OR = 0.82, 95% CI 0.67-0.99; p = 0.04). For males, baseline fat free mass was associated with increased femoral head cartilage volume (β = 40 mm(3), 95% CI 6 to 74 mm(3), p = 0.02). CONCLUSIONS: Increased fat mass was associated with adverse hip cartilage changes for females, while increased fat free mass was associated with beneficial cartilage changes for both genders. Further work is required to determine whether modifying body composition alters the development of hip OA.