Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications
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ItemSegregation analysis of 17,425 population-based breast cancer families: Evidence for genetic susceptibility and risk prediction(CELL PRESS, 2022-10-06)Rare pathogenic variants in known breast cancer-susceptibility genes and known common susceptibility variants do not fully explain the familial aggregation of breast cancer. To investigate plausible genetic models for the residual familial aggregation, we studied 17,425 families ascertained through population-based probands, 86% of whom were screened for pathogenic variants in BRCA1, BRCA2, PALB2, CHEK2, ATM, and TP53 via gene-panel sequencing. We conducted complex segregation analyses and fitted genetic models in which breast cancer incidence depended on the effects of known susceptibility genes and other unidentified major genes and a normally distributed polygenic component. The proportion of familial variance explained by the six genes was 46% at age 20-29 years and decreased steadily with age thereafter. After allowing for these genes, the best fitting model for the residual familial variance included a recessive risk component with a combined genotype frequency of 1.7% (95% CI: 0.3%-5.4%) and a penetrance to age 80 years of 69% (95% CI: 38%-95%) for homozygotes, which may reflect the combined effects of multiple variants acting in a recessive manner, and a polygenic variance of 1.27 (95% CI: 0.94%-1.65), which did not vary with age. The proportion of the residual familial variance explained by the recessive risk component was 40% at age 20-29 years and decreased with age thereafter. The model predicted age-specific familial relative risks consistent with those observed by large epidemiological studies. The findings have implications for strategies to identify new breast cancer-susceptibility genes and improve disease-risk prediction, especially at a young age.
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ItemPopulation-based estimates of breast cancer risk for carriers of pathogenic variants identified by gene-panel testing(NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2021-12-09)Population-based estimates of breast cancer risk for carriers of pathogenic variants identified by gene-panel testing are urgently required. Most prior research has been based on women selected for high-risk features and more data is needed to make inference about breast cancer risk for women unselected for family history, an important consideration of population screening. We tested 1464 women diagnosed with breast cancer and 862 age-matched controls participating in the Australian Breast Cancer Family Study (ABCFS), and 6549 healthy, older Australian women enroled in the ASPirin in Reducing Events in the Elderly (ASPREE) study for rare germline variants using a 24-gene-panel. Odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression adjusted for age and other potential confounders. We identified pathogenic variants in 11.1% of the ABCFS cases, 3.7% of the ABCFS controls and 2.2% of the ASPREE (control) participants. The estimated breast cancer OR [95% confidence interval] was 5.3 [2.1-16.2] for BRCA1, 4.0 [1.9-9.1] for BRCA2, 3.4 [1.4-8.4] for ATM and 4.3 [1.0-17.0] for PALB2. Our findings provide a population-based perspective to gene-panel testing for breast cancer predisposition and opportunities to improve predictors for identifying women who carry pathogenic variants in breast cancer predisposition genes.
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ItemGenome-wide and transcriptome-wide association studies of mammographic density phenotypes reveal novel loci(BMC, 2022-04-12)BACKGROUND: Mammographic density (MD) phenotypes, including percent density (PMD), area of dense tissue (DA), and area of non-dense tissue (NDA), are associated with breast cancer risk. Twin studies suggest that MD phenotypes are highly heritable. However, only a small proportion of their variance is explained by identified genetic variants. METHODS: We conducted a genome-wide association study, as well as a transcriptome-wide association study (TWAS), of age- and BMI-adjusted DA, NDA, and PMD in up to 27,900 European-ancestry women from the MODE/BCAC consortia. RESULTS: We identified 28 genome-wide significant loci for MD phenotypes, including nine novel signals (5q11.2, 5q14.1, 5q31.1, 5q33.3, 5q35.1, 7p11.2, 8q24.13, 12p11.2, 16q12.2). Further, 45% of all known breast cancer SNPs were associated with at least one MD phenotype at p < 0.05. TWAS further identified two novel genes (SHOX2 and CRISPLD2) whose genetically predicted expression was significantly associated with MD phenotypes. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings provided novel insight into the genetic background of MD phenotypes, and further demonstrated their shared genetic basis with breast cancer.
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ItemProspective Evaluation over 15 Years of Six Breast Cancer Risk Models(MDPI, 2021-10-01)Prospective validation of risk models is needed to assess their clinical utility, particularly over the longer term. We evaluated the performance of six commonly used breast cancer risk models (IBIS, BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, BRCAPRO-BCRAT, BCRAT, and iCARE-lit). 15-year risk scores were estimated using lifestyle factors and family history measures from 7608 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were aged 50-65 years and unaffected at commencement of follow-up two (conducted in 2003-2007), of whom 351 subsequently developed breast cancer. Risk discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic and calibration using the expected/observed number of incident cases across the spectrum of risk by age group (50-54, 55-59, 60-65 years) and family history of breast cancer. C-statistics were higher for BOADICEA (0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.62) and IBIS (0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.61) than the other models (p-difference ≤ 0.04). No model except BOADICEA calibrated well across the spectrum of 15-year risk (p-value < 0.03). The performance of BOADICEA and IBIS was similar across age groups and for women with or without a family history. For middle-aged Australian women, BOADICEA and IBIS had the highest discriminatory accuracy of the six risk models, but apart from BOADICEA, no model was well-calibrated across the risk spectrum.
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ItemProspective Evaluation of the Addition of Polygenic Risk Scores to Breast Cancer Risk Models(OXFORD UNIV PRESS, 2021-03-02)BACKGROUND: The Breast and Ovarian Analysis of Disease Incidence and Carrier Estimation Algorithm and the International Breast Cancer Intervention Study breast cancer risk models are used to provide advice on screening intervals and chemoprevention. We evaluated the performance of these models, which now incorporate polygenic risk scores (PRSs), using a prospective cohort study. METHODS: We used a case-cohort design, involving women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study aged 50-75 years when surveyed in 2003-2007, of whom 408 had a first primary breast cancer diagnosed within 10 years (cases), and 2783 were from the subcohort. Ten-year risks were calculated based on lifestyle factors, family history data, and a 313-variant PRS. Discrimination was assessed using a C-statistic compared with 0.50 and calibration using the ratio of expected to observed number of cases (E/O). RESULTS: When the PRS was added to models with lifestyle factors and family history, the C-statistic (95% confidence interval [CI]) increased from 0.57 (0.54 to 0.60) to 0.62 (0.60 to 0.65) using IBIS and from 0.56 (0.53 to 0.59) to 0.62 (0.59 to 0.64) using BOADICEA. IBIS underpredicted risk (E/O = 0.62, 95% CI = 0.48 to 0.80) for women in the lowest risk category (<1.7%) and overpredicted risk (E/O = 1.40, 95% CI = 1.18 to 1.67) in the highest risk category (≥5%), using the Hosmer-Lemeshow test for calibration in quantiles of risk and a 2-sided P value less than .001. BOADICEA underpredicted risk (E/O = 0.82, 95% CI = 0.67 to 0.99) in the second highest risk category (3.4%-5%); the Hosmer-Lemeshow test and a 2-sided P value was equal to .02. CONCLUSIONS: Although the inclusion of a 313 genetic variant PRS doubles discriminatory accuracy (relative to reference 0.50), models with and without this PRS have relatively modest discrimination and might require recalibration before their clinical and wider use are promoted.
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ItemRare germline genetic variants and risk of aggressive prostate cancer(WILEY, 2020-05-08)Few genetic risk factors have been demonstrated to be specifically associated with aggressive prostate cancer (PrCa). Here, we report a case-case study of PrCa comparing the prevalence of germline pathogenic/likely pathogenic (P/LP) genetic variants in 787 men with aggressive disease and 769 with nonaggressive disease. Overall, we observed P/LP variants in 11.4% of men with aggressive PrCa and 9.8% of men with nonaggressive PrCa (two-tailed Fisher's exact tests, P = .28). The proportion of BRCA2 and ATM P/LP variant carriers in men with aggressive PrCa exceeded that observed in men with nonaggressive PrCa; 18/787 carriers (2.3%) and 4/769 carriers (0.5%), P = .004, and 14/787 carriers (0.02%) and 5/769 carriers (0.01%), P = .06, respectively. Our findings contribute to the extensive international effort to interpret the genetic variation identified in genes included on gene-panel tests, for which there is currently an insufficient evidence-base for clinical translation in the context of PrCa risk.
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ItemRare Germline Pathogenic Variants Identified by Multigene Panel Testing and the Risk of Aggressive Prostate Cancer(MDPI, 2021-04-01)While gene panel sequencing is becoming widely used for cancer risk prediction, its clinical utility with respect to predicting aggressive prostate cancer (PrCa) is limited by our current understanding of the genetic risk factors associated with predisposition to this potentially lethal disease phenotype. This study included 837 men diagnosed with aggressive PrCa and 7261 controls (unaffected men and men who did not meet criteria for aggressive PrCa). Rare germline pathogenic variants (including likely pathogenic variants) were identified by targeted sequencing of 26 known or putative cancer predisposition genes. We found that 85 (10%) men with aggressive PrCa and 265 (4%) controls carried a pathogenic variant (p < 0.0001). Aggressive PrCa odds ratios (ORs) were estimated using unconditional logistic regression. Increased risk of aggressive PrCa (OR (95% confidence interval)) was identified for pathogenic variants in BRCA2 (5.8 (2.7-12.4)), BRCA1 (5.5 (1.8-16.6)), and ATM (3.8 (1.6-9.1)). Our study provides further evidence that rare germline pathogenic variants in these genes are associated with increased risk of this aggressive, clinically relevant subset of PrCa. These rare genetic variants could be incorporated into risk prediction models to improve their precision to identify men at highest risk of aggressive prostate cancer and be used to identify men with newly diagnosed prostate cancer who require urgent treatment.
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ItemPopulation-Based Estimates of the Age-Specific Cumulative Risk of Breast Cancer for Pathogenic Variants in CHEK2: Findings from the Australian Breast Cancer Family Registry(MDPI, 2021-03-01)Case-control studies of breast cancer have consistently shown that pathogenic variants in CHEK2 are associated with about a 3-fold increased risk of breast cancer. Information about the recurrent protein-truncating variant CHEK2 c.1100delC dominates this estimate. There have been no formal estimates of age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer for all CHEK2 pathogenic (including likely pathogenic) variants combined. We conducted a population-based case-control-family study of pathogenic CHEK2 variants (26 families, 1071 relatives) and estimated the age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer using segregation analysis. The estimated hazard ratio for carriers of pathogenic CHEK2 variants (combined) was 4.9 (95% CI 2.5-9.5) relative to non-carriers. The HR for carriers of the CHEK2 c.1100delC variant was estimated to be 3.5 (95% CI 1.02-11.6) and the HR for carriers of all other CHEK2 variants combined was estimated to be 5.7 (95% CI 2.5-12.9). The age-specific cumulative risk of breast cancer was estimated to be 18% (95% CI 11-30%) and 33% (95% CI 21-48%) to age 60 and 80 years, respectively. These findings provide important information for the clinical management of breast cancer risk for women carrying pathogenic variants in CHEK2.
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ItemVTRNA2-1: Genetic Variation, Heritable Methylation and Disease Association(MDPI, 2021-03-01)VTRNA2-1 is a metastable epiallele with accumulating evidence that methylation at this region is heritable, modifiable and associated with disease including risk and progression of cancer. This study investigated the influence of genetic variation and other factors such as age and adult lifestyle on blood DNA methylation in this region. We first sequenced the VTRNA2-1 gene region in multiple-case breast cancer families in which VTRNA2-1 methylation was identified as heritable and associated with breast cancer risk. Methylation quantitative trait loci (mQTL) were investigated using a prospective cohort study (4500 participants with genotyping and methylation data). The cis-mQTL analysis (334 variants ± 50 kb of the most heritable CpG site) identified 43 variants associated with VTRNA2-1 methylation (p < 1.5 × 10-4); however, these explained little of the methylation variation (R2 < 0.5% for each of these variants). No genetic variants elsewhere in the genome were found to strongly influence VTRNA2-1 methylation. SNP-based heritability estimates were consistent with the mQTL findings (h2 = 0, 95%CI: -0.14 to 0.14). We found no evidence that age, sex, country of birth, smoking, body mass index, alcohol consumption or diet influenced blood DNA methylation at VTRNA2-1. Genetic factors and adult lifestyle play a minimal role in explaining methylation variability at the heritable VTRNA2-1 cluster.
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ItemAssociation of variably methylated tumour DNA regions with overall survival for invasive lobular breast cancer(BMC, 2021-01-18)BACKGROUND: Tumour DNA methylation profiling has shown potential to refine disease subtyping and improve the diagnosis and prognosis prediction of breast cancer. However, limited data exist regarding invasive lobular breast cancer (ILBC). Here, we investigated the genome-wide variability of DNA methylation levels across ILBC tumours and assessed the association between methylation levels at the variably methylated regions and overall survival in women with ILBC. METHODS: Tumour-enriched DNA was prepared by macrodissecting formalin-fixed paraffin embedded (FFPE) tumour tissue from 130 ILBCs diagnosed in the participants of the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study (MCCS). Genome-wide tumour DNA methylation was measured using the HumanMethylation 450K (HM450K) BeadChip array. Variably methylated regions (VMRs) were identified using the DMRcate package in R. Cox proportional hazards regression models were used to assess the association between methylation levels at the ten most significant VMRs and overall survival. Gene set enrichment analyses were undertaken using the web-based tool Metaspace. Replication of the VMR and survival analysis findings was examined using data retrieved from The Cancer Genome Atlas (TCGA) for 168 ILBC cases. We also examined the correlation between methylation and gene expression for the ten VMRs of interest using TCGA data. RESULTS: We identified 2771 VMRs (P < 10-8) in ILBC tumours. The ten most variably methylated clusters were predominantly located in the promoter region of the genes: ISM1, APC, TMEM101, ASCL2, NKX6, HIST3H2A/HIST3H2BB, HCG4P3, HES5, CELF2 and EFCAB4B. Higher methylation level at several of these VMRs showed an association with reduced overall survival in the MCCS. In TCGA, all associations were in the same direction, however stronger than in the MCCS. The pooled analysis of the MCCS and TCGA data showed that methylation at four of the ten genes was associated with reduced overall survival, independently of age and tumour stage; APC: Hazard Ratio (95% Confidence interval) per one-unit M-value increase: 1.18 (1.02-1.36), TMEM101: 1.23 (1.02-1.48), HCG4P3: 1.37 (1.05-1.79) and CELF2: 1.21 (1.02-1.43). A negative correlation was observed between methylation and gene expression for CELF2 (R = - 0.25, P = 0.001), but not for TMEM101 and APC. CONCLUSIONS: Our study identified regions showing greatest variability across the ILBC tumour genome and found methylation at several genes to potentially serve as a biomarker of survival for women with ILBC.