Melbourne School of Population and Global Health - Research Publications

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    Television viewing time and all-cause mortality: interactions with BMI, physical activity, smoking, and dietary factors
    Swain, CT ; Bassett, JK ; Hodge, AM ; Dunstan, DW ; Owen, N ; Yang, Y ; Jayasekara, H ; Hebert, JR ; Shivappa, N ; MacInnis, RJ ; Milne, RL ; English, DR ; Lynch, BM (BMC, 2022-03-19)
    BACKGROUND: Higher levels of time spent sitting (sedentary behavior) contribute to adverse health outcomes, including earlier death. This effect may be modified by other lifestyle factors. We examined the association of television viewing (TV), a common leisure-time sedentary behavior, with all-cause mortality, and whether this is modified by body mass index (BMI), physical activity, smoking, alcohol intake, soft drink consumption, or diet-associated inflammation. METHODS: Using data from participants in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study, flexible parametric survival models assessed the time-dependent association of self-reported TV time (three categories: < 2 h/day, 2-3 h/day, > 3 h/day) with all-cause mortality. Interaction terms were fitted to test whether there was effect modification of TV time by the other risk factors. RESULTS: From 19,570 participants, 4,417 deaths were reported over a median follow up of 14.5 years. More TV time was associated with earlier mortality; however, this relationship diminished with increasing age. The hazard ratio (HR) and 95% confidence interval (95% CI) for > 3 h/day compared with < 2 h/day of TV time was 1.34 (1.16, 1.55) at 70 years, 1.14 (1.04, 1.23) at 80 years, and 0.95 (0.84, 1.06) at 90 years. The TV time/mortality relationship was more evident in participants who were physically inactive (compared with active; p for interaction < 0.01) or had a higher dietary inflammatory index score (compared with a lower score; p for interaction = 0.03). No interactions were detected between TV time and BMI, smoking, alcohol intake, nor soft-drink consumption (all p for interaction > 0.16). CONCLUSIONS: The relationship between TV time and all-cause mortality may change with age. It may also be more pronounced in those who are otherwise inactive or who have a pro-inflammatory diet.
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    Linking Physical Activity to Breast Cancer via Sex Hormones, Part 1: The Effect of Physical Activity on Sex Steroid Hormones
    Swain, CTV ; Drummond, AE ; Boing, L ; Milne, RL ; English, DR ; Brown, KA ; van Roekel, EH ; Dixon-Suen, SC ; Lynch, MJ ; Moore, MM ; Gaunt, TR ; Martin, RM ; Lewis, SJ ; Lynch, BM (AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH, 2022-01-01)
    The effect of physical activity on breast cancer risk may be partly mediated by sex steroid hormones. This review synthesized and appraised the evidence for an effect of physical activity on sex steroid hormones. Systematic searches were performed using MEDLINE (Ovid), EMBASE (Ovid), and SPORTDiscus to identify experimental studies and prospective cohort studies that examined physical activity and estrogens, progestins, and/or androgens, as well as sex hormone binding globulin (SHBG) and glucocorticoids in pre- and postmenopausal women. Meta-analyses were performed to generate effect estimates. Risk of bias was assessed, and the GRADE system was used to appraise quality of the evidence. Twenty-eight randomized controlled trials (RCT), 81 nonrandomized interventions, and six observational studies were included. Estrogens, progesterone, and androgens mostly decreased, and SHBG increased, in response to physical activity. Effect sizes were small, and evidence quality was graded moderate or high for each outcome. Reductions in select sex steroid hormones following exercise supports the biological plausibility of the first part of the physical activity-sex hormone-breast cancer pathway. The confirmed effect of physical activity on decreasing circulating sex steroid hormones supports its causal role in preventing breast cancer.See related reviews by Lynch et al., p. 11 and Drummond et al., p. 28.
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    Alcohol and tobacco use and risk of multiple myeloma: A case‐control study
    Cheah, S ; Bassett, JK ; Bruinsma, FJ ; Cozen, W ; Hopper, JL ; Jayasekara, H ; Joshua, D ; MacInnis, RJ ; Prince, HM ; Vajdic, CM ; Leeuwen, MT ; Doo, NW ; Harrison, SJ ; English, DR ; Giles, GG ; Milne, RL (Wiley, 2022-02)
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    Linking Physical Activity to Breast Cancer via Sex Steroid Hormones, Part 2: The Effect of Sex Steroid Hormones on Breast Cancer Risk
    Drummond, AE ; Swain, CT ; Brown, KA ; Dixon-Suen, SC ; Boing, L ; van Roekel, EH ; Moore, MM ; Gaunt, TR ; Milne, RL ; English, DR ; Martin, RM ; Lewis, SJ ; Lynch, BM (AMER ASSOC CANCER RESEARCH, 2022-01-01)
    We undertook a systematic review and appraised the evidence for an effect of circulating sex steroid hormones and sex hormone-binding globulin (SHBG) on breast cancer risk in pre- and postmenopausal women. Systematic searches identified prospective studies relevant to this review. Meta-analyses estimated breast cancer risk for women with the highest compared with the lowest level of sex hormones, and the DRMETA Stata package was used to graphically represent the shape of these associations. The ROBINS-E tool assessed risk of bias, and the GRADE system appraised the strength of evidence. In premenopausal women, there was little evidence that estrogens, progesterone, or SHBG were associated with breast cancer risk, whereas androgens showed a positive association. In postmenopausal women, higher estrogens and androgens were associated with an increase in breast cancer risk, whereas higher SHBG was inversely associated with risk. The strength of the evidence quality ranged from low to high for each hormone. Dose-response relationships between sex steroid hormone concentrations and breast cancer risk were most notable for postmenopausal women. These data support the plausibility of a role for sex steroid hormones in mediating the causal relationship between physical activity and the risk of breast cancer.See related reviews by Lynch et al., p. 11 and Swain et al., p. 16.
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    Prospective Evaluation over 15 Years of Six Breast Cancer Risk Models
    Li, SX ; Milne, RL ; Nguyen-Dumont, T ; English, DR ; Giles, GG ; Southey, MC ; Antoniou, AC ; Lee, A ; Winship, I ; Hopper, JL ; Terry, MB ; MacInnis, RJ (MDPI, 2021-10-01)
    Prospective validation of risk models is needed to assess their clinical utility, particularly over the longer term. We evaluated the performance of six commonly used breast cancer risk models (IBIS, BOADICEA, BRCAPRO, BRCAPRO-BCRAT, BCRAT, and iCARE-lit). 15-year risk scores were estimated using lifestyle factors and family history measures from 7608 women in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study who were aged 50-65 years and unaffected at commencement of follow-up two (conducted in 2003-2007), of whom 351 subsequently developed breast cancer. Risk discrimination was assessed using the C-statistic and calibration using the expected/observed number of incident cases across the spectrum of risk by age group (50-54, 55-59, 60-65 years) and family history of breast cancer. C-statistics were higher for BOADICEA (0.59, 95% confidence interval (CI) 0.56-0.62) and IBIS (0.57, 95% CI 0.54-0.61) than the other models (p-difference ≤ 0.04). No model except BOADICEA calibrated well across the spectrum of 15-year risk (p-value < 0.03). The performance of BOADICEA and IBIS was similar across age groups and for women with or without a family history. For middle-aged Australian women, BOADICEA and IBIS had the highest discriminatory accuracy of the six risk models, but apart from BOADICEA, no model was well-calibrated across the risk spectrum.
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    DNA methylation-based biological aging and cancer risk and survival: Pooled analysis of seven prospective studies
    Dugue, P-A ; Bassett, JK ; Joo, JE ; Jung, C-H ; Wong, EM ; Moreno-Betancur, M ; Schmidt, D ; Makalic, E ; Li, S ; Severi, G ; Hodge, AM ; Buchanan, DD ; English, DR ; Hopper, JL ; Southey, MC ; Giles, GG ; Milne, RL (WILEY, 2018-04-15)
    The association between aging and cancer is complex. Recent studies have developed measures of biological aging based on DNA methylation and called them "age acceleration." We aimed to assess the associations of age acceleration with risk of and survival from seven common cancers. Seven case-control studies of DNA methylation and colorectal, gastric, kidney, lung, prostate and urothelial cancer and B-cell lymphoma nested in the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study were conducted. Cancer cases, vital status and cause of death were ascertained through linkage with cancer and death registries. Conditional logistic regression and Cox models were used to estimate odds ratios (OR) and hazard ratios (HR) and 95% confidence intervals (CI) for associations of five age acceleration measures derived from the Human Methylation 450 K Beadchip assay with cancer risk (N = 3,216 cases) and survival (N = 1,726 deaths), respectively. Epigenetic aging was associated with increased cancer risk, ranging from 4% to 9% per five-year age acceleration for the 5 measures considered. Heterogeneity by study was observed, with stronger associations for risk of kidney cancer and B-cell lymphoma. An associated increased risk of death following cancer diagnosis ranged from 2% to 6% per five-year age acceleration, with no evidence of heterogeneity by cancer site. Cancer risk and mortality were increased by 15-30% for the fourth versus first quartile of age acceleration. DNA methylation-based measures of biological aging are associated with increased cancer risk and shorter cancer survival, independently of major health risk factors.
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    Lifetime alcohol intake and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma: Findings from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study
    Jayasekara, H ; Juneja, S ; Hodge, AM ; Room, R ; Milne, RL ; Hopper, JL ; English, DR ; Giles, GG ; MacInnis, RJ (WILEY, 2018-03-01)
    Cohort studies have reported inconsistent evidence regarding alcohol intake and risk of non-Hodgkin lymphoma (NHL), mostly based on alcohol intake assessed close to study enrolment. We examined this association using alcohol intake measured from age 20 onwards. We calculated usual alcohol intake for 10-year periods from age 20 using recalled frequency and quantity of beverage-specific consumption for 37,990 participants aged 40-69 years from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Cox regression was performed to derive hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between alcohol intake (g/day) and NHL risk. After a mean follow-up of 19.3 years, 538 NHL cases were diagnosed. Approximately 80% of participants were either lifetime abstainers or consumed below 20 g of ethanol/day. All categories of lifetime alcohol intake were associated with about 20% lower incidence of NHL compared with lifetime abstention, but there was no evidence of a trend by amount consumed (HR = 0.97 per 10 g/day increment in intake, 95% CI: 0.92-1.03; p value = 0.3). HRs for beer, wine and spirits were 0.91 (95% CI: 0.83-1.00; p value = 0.05), 1.03 (95% CI: 0.94-1.12; p value = 0.6), and 1.06 (95% CI: 0.83-1.37; p value = 0.6), respectively, per 10 g/day increment in lifetime intake. There were no significant differences in associations between NHL subtypes. In this low-drinking cohort, we did not detect a dose-dependent association between lifetime alcohol intake and NHL risk.
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    Associations of alcohol intake, smoking, physical activity and obesity with survival following colorectal cancer diagnosis by stage, anatomic site and tumor molecular subtype
    Jayasekara, H ; English, DR ; Haydon, A ; Hodge, AM ; Lynch, BM ; Rosty, C ; Williamson, EJ ; Clendenning, M ; Southey, MC ; Jenkins, MA ; Room, R ; Hopper, JL ; Milne, RL ; Buchanan, DD ; Giles, GG ; MacInnis, RJ (WILEY, 2018-01-15)
    The influence of lifestyle factors on survival following a diagnosis of colorectal cancer (CRC) is not well established. We examined associations between lifestyle factors measured before diagnosis and CRC survival. The Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study collected data on alcohol intake, cigarette smoking and physical activity, and body measurements at baseline (1990-1994) and wave 2 (2003-2007). We included participants diagnosed to 31 August 2015 with incident stages I-III CRC within 10-years post exposure assessment. Information on tumor characteristics and vital status was obtained. Tumor DNA was tested for microsatellite instability (MSI) and somatic mutations in oncogenes BRAF (V600E) and KRAS. We estimated hazard ratios (HRs) for associations between lifestyle factors and overall and CRC-specific mortality using Cox regression. Of 724 eligible CRC cases, 339 died (170 from CRC) during follow-up (average 9.0 years). Exercise (non-occupational/leisure-time) was associated with higher CRC-specific survival for stage II (HR = 0.25, 95% CI: 0.10-0.60) but not stages I/III disease (p for interaction = 0.01), and possibly for colon and KRAS wild-type tumors. Waist circumference was inversely associated with CRC-specific survival (HR = 1.25 per 10 cm increment, 95% CI: 1.08-1.44), independent of stage, anatomic site and tumor molecular status. Cigarette smoking was associated with lower overall survival, with suggestive evidence of worse survival for BRAF mutated CRC, but not with CRC-specific survival. Alcohol intake was not associated with survival. Survival did not differ by MSI status. We have identified pre-diagnostic predictors of survival following CRC that may have clinical and public health relevance.
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    Genome-Wide Measures of Peripheral Blood Dna Methylation and Prostate Cancer Risk in a Prospective Nested Case-Control Study
    FitzGerald, LM ; Naeem, H ; Makalic, E ; Schmidt, DF ; Dowty, JG ; Joo, JE ; Jung, C-H ; Bassett, JK ; Dugue, P-A ; Chung, J ; Lonie, A ; Milne, RL ; Wong, EM ; Hopper, JL ; English, DR ; Severi, G ; Baglietto, L ; Pedersen, J ; Giles, GG ; Southey, MC (WILEY, 2017-04-01)
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    Lifetime alcohol intake is associated with an increased risk of KRAS plus and BRAF-/KRAS- but not BRAF plus colorectal cancer
    Jayasekara, H ; MacInnis, RJ ; Williamson, EJ ; Hodge, AM ; Clendenning, M ; Rosty, C ; Walters, R ; Room, R ; Southey, MC ; Jenkins, MA ; Milne, RL ; Hopper, JL ; Giles, GG ; Buchanan, DD ; English, DR (WILEY, 2017-04-01)
    Ethanol in alcoholic beverages is a causative agent for colorectal cancer. Colorectal cancer is a biologically heterogeneous disease, and molecular subtypes defined by the presence of somatic mutations in BRAF and KRAS are known to exist. We examined associations between lifetime alcohol intake and molecular and anatomic subtypes of colorectal cancer. We calculated usual alcohol intake for 10-year periods from age 20 using recalled frequency and quantity of beverage-specific consumption for 38,149 participants aged 40-69 years from the Melbourne Collaborative Cohort Study. Cox regression was performed to derive hazard ratios (HRs) and 95% confidence intervals (CIs) for the association between lifetime alcohol intake and colorectal cancer risk. Heterogeneity in the HRs across subtypes of colorectal cancer was assessed. A positive dose-dependent association between lifetime alcohol intake and overall colorectal cancer risk (mean follow-up = 14.6 years; n = 596 colon and n = 326 rectal cancer) was observed (HR = 1.08, 95% CI: 1.04-1.12 per 10 g/day increment). The risk was greater for rectal than colon cancer (phomogeneity  = 0.02). Alcohol intake was associated with increased risks of KRAS+ (HR = 1.07, 95% CI: 1.00-1.15) and BRAF-/KRAS- (HR = 1.05, 95% CI: 1.00-1.11) but not BRAF+ tumors (HR = 0.89, 95% CI: 0.78-1.01; phomogeneity  = 0.01). Alcohol intake is associated with an increased risk of KRAS+ and BRAF-/KRAS- tumors originating via specific molecular pathways including the traditional adenoma-carcinoma pathway but not with BRAF+ tumors originating via the serrated pathway. Therefore, limiting alcohol intake from a young age might reduce colorectal cancer originating via the traditional adenoma-carcinoma pathway.