Infrastructure Engineering - Research Publications
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ItemModular system approach for modelling socio-technical transitions towards alternative energy infrastructures in urban areas(Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand Inc. (MSSANZ), 2017-01-01)Reducing greenhouse gas emissions (GHGE) in urban energy systems requires the implementation of alternative infrastructure configurations across different geographical, technical and social scales. Furthermore, alternative configurations may improve systems resilience and democratization of service provision. However, unlike current centralised systems, which are well understood from the technical and social perspectives, there is a lack of knowledge on the socio-technical interplay across multiple intermediate scales of alternative infrastructures, defined as all the possible configurations in between off-grid and centralised infrastructure. There are various concepts in the literature describing decentralised, distributed and integrated systems using different primary energy resources and generating various energy carriers -for electricity, heating, and cooling. However, the information on alternative models is limited to the technical requirements leaving a gap in knowledge on the societal requirements. Alternative infrastructure models potentially reduce GHGE but they may require unique forms of social organisation structures to support their adoption and increase the pace towards decarbonisation. To obtain in-depth understanding of the socio-technical interplay of alternative infrastructures across scales, this paper draws on complexity theory, the concept of modularity and transitions modelling literature. This aid in the definition of the proposed conceptual framework and the Service Provision Modules (SPM). This conceptual framework serves as the basis for spatially specific modelling and simulation. The SPM may use different types of networks and can represent any type of conventional or alternative infrastructure configuration. The conceptual framework then uses the modules to construct the socio-technical layouts for the baseline and possible future configurations in a given area. The paper briefly outlines various concepts in the literature which technically define alternative energy systems, then presents a description of the conceptual framework and the definition of an SPM. Finally, the SPMs are used to represent the Australian electricity system.
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ItemNarrative-informed exploratory analysis of energy transition pathways: A case study of India's electricity sector(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2017-11)Energy transitions unfold under the influence of socio-technical, political and economic uncertainties. This paper introduces a narrative-informed exploratory approach for analysing future energy transition pathways under these uncertainty conditions. In this approach, exploratory modelling is used to explore the impact of various uncertainties, such as potential installed capacity and supporting policies for different energy options, on the unfolding of transition pathways. The approach produces several sets of scenarios. We complement this quantitative exploration of the future with narratives (storylines) generated based on the concepts in the sustainability transitions field. Narratives are used (i) as a supporting framework for model structure; (ii) to guide the exploration of the future; and (iii) to interpret the ensemble of quantitative scenarios. We describe how synergies between narratives and exploratory modelling inform both the framed and open-ended exploration of future transition pathways. The approach is demonstrated with a case study of the transition in India's electricity sector. We show that the realisation of the 100 GW solar electricity target by 2022 is unlikely, and that the development of solar electricity is highly dependent on the active role of government.
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ItemTransition dynamics in state-influenced niche empowerments: Experiences from India's electricity sector(Elesevier, 2017-03-01)India experiences transitional changes in its electricity sector from fossil fuels towards renewable sources. An electricity sector with 0% wind and solar (of 16 GW total installed capacity) in 1974 has been transformed and reached a status with 11% wind and solar (of 302 GW total installed capacity) in 2016. The observed changes have complex dynamics, shaped by the decisions of public and private actors in a semi-liberalised market condition, while profoundly influenced by government's supporting policies. It is called a state-influenced empowerment of the renewable niches in the electricity sector. This paper presents an empirically-underpinned theoretical framework to explain the specific dynamics of this context. Understanding of the dynamics provides strategic insights on how government's policies have driven the niche empowerment to date and what should be done to further promote this transition in future. The core concepts of the framework are developed through an iterative process between theoretical deduction from the existing theories in the sustainability transitions field and empirical grounding in the Indian on-grid solar electricity as a case study. Four strategic insights for the further empowerment of solar electricity in future are identified based on the implementation of the framework in the case study.
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ItemIndia's on-grid solar power development: Historical transitions, present status and future driving forces(Elsevier, 2017-03-01)India with a fast growing demand for electricity and increasing consideration to emissions reduction is investing strongly in renewable electricity generation. Among renewables, the Central and State Governments have set aspirational targets for on-grid solar electricity and legislated several supporting policies to realise these targets. As a result of the favourable political environment, the development of on-grid solar, in terms of the rate of growth in installed capacity, has been increasing in the recent years, and it is expected to continue in the future. This paper aims to investigate the impact of historical transitions of India's electricity sector on the ongoing development of on-grid solar electricity and to explore the prospect of solar sector development in the future. First of all, we investigate how the historical transformation of governmental intervention's approach intertwined with the gradual shift of the source of generation has paved the way for the current achievements in on-grid solar electricity. Second, we envision the future challenges and opportunities for the development of solar sector by looking ahead and discussing the continuity of government's support and the prospective competitions between different sources. We conclude the paper with some required steps to be taken in order to secure the achievement of the targets in solar electricity in the future.
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ItemPolicy analysis of renewable electricity development in India: From a transition modelling perspective(The System Dynamics Society, 2016)
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ItemDynamic modelling of energy transitions using a coupled modelling-narrative approach(Modelling and Simulation Society of Australia and New Zealand, 2015-12-01)Abstract: Energy transitions are a matter of competitions between multiple emerging systems and a dominant, established system. Understanding the complex dynamics of these interactions can assist better-informed decision making and policy interventions. This paper presents a coupled modelling-narrative approach, consisting of a System Dynamics (SD) model interlinked with a narrative transitions-theoretical framework. The approach is geared at understanding the dynamics of emerging on-grid electricity sources, such as renewables, in power sector transitions. The value of implementing such a coupled approach is twofold. Firstly, it empowers the SD modelling process. As SD modelling itself is agnostic to the conceptualisation of the (societal) system under study, it is left to the modeller to design an appropriate SD structure - i.e. Causal Loop Diagram. The approach presented in this paper provides a narrative theoretical framework based on the state-of-the-art of Sustainability Transitions literature and a generic SD model (applicable to similar energy transition cases) which directly translates the key concepts and dynamical hypotheses. The theoretical framework enables the creation of highly structured narratives that not only provide a clear overview of the case, but also assist the identification of case specific boundary conditions, parameters, feedback loops and therefore in setting up and validating the SD model. Secondly, the close connection between the narrative theoretical framework and the SD model enables considerable explanatory power that cannot be obtained from simply using a model or a narrative. Where the narrative case description, for example, outlines the developments following a certain policy intervention, the SD model allows interrogating the detailed interactions of the chain of causes and consequences following the intervention. SD models are able to represent and reproduce complex causal relations including feedbacks, non-linearity, threshold effects and time delays - dynamics which are impracticable to analyse with human mental models alone. This paper presents how the SD model is structured based on the core concepts of the narrative theoretical framework. Examples from an existing application by the authors of the framework on the case of the emergence of on-grid solar electricity in India are used to illustrate how the coupling of the SD model with the narrative theory helps addressing questions going beyond modelling or narrative analysis in isolation.