Infrastructure Engineering - Research Publications
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ItemRoad Networks Management under Uncertainty: A stochastic based model(SpringerLink, 2012)Current pavement management systems (PMS) adopted by the Road Authorities are often very complex and data intensive. Other challenges also faced by Road Authorities in managing road networks include budget constraints and the uncertainty associated in predicting the future performance of pavements. In addition, the emphasis in pavement management has shifted from reconstructing completely new roads towards preservation of existing networks. In many cases, existing PMS do not meet these requirements. Thus, an efficient model that is able to accommodate all of those challenges needs to be developed. This paper outlines the development of a stochastic based PMS that includes a performance prediction model using Markov chains and an optimization model based on Markov Decision Processes (MDP). Combinations of pavement preservation strategies and maintenance budget levels are applied as action criteria in contrast to other stochastic models. Despite the apparent influence of uncertainty in road pavement performance during their service live, stochastic models provide promising results for enhancing current PMS. By analysing historical data, the future behaviour of road pavements under different expenditure levels and combination of routine and periodic maintenance measures can be predicted. From an optimization point of view, the utilization of constrained MDP will potentially result in cost savings. This is due to the optimality principal of the model which is capable of finding a optimal multi-year maintenance policy through the direct inclusion of additional constraints into the optimization problem. Hence, the model considers constraints and incorporates relationships between historical maintenance actions and costs. This paper also presents a methodology for developing rationale for long-term maintenance policies by integrating stochastic based performance prediction and optimization models with the experience of Road Authorities in managing roads networks.
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ItemWhy may public infrastructure projects over-promise likely outcomes?(Australian Institute of Project Management, 2016-11-01)The prevailing approach to measure project success compares an ex-post outcome with the ex-ante plan. Comparisons of project success are often questioned, and actual success is unlikely to realised if the initial plan is excessively optimistic such as exaggerated benefits, overlooked risks, and unrealistic assumptions. Published literature suggests that technical inadequacies of estimation models, psychology of human mind, economic obligation for risk, and organisational misrepresentation may be factors that can explain this planning fallacy in projects. Nevertheless, these explanations are considered lacking as they do not adequately address the complexity of infrastructure project decision process. This paper goes beyond planning fallacy in a quest for a better explanation. A workshop of project experts was convened to test the earlier understandings relating to behaviours exhibited during the initiation of an infrastructure. Importantly it framed much of the interactive dialogues among participants around seven case study projects that were considered in the 2012 Parliamentary inquiry of the committee of the Public Accounts and Estimates Committee (PAEC) that explored the effectiveness of decision making in Victorian infrastructure delivery. It emerged that one of the key behaviours was considered to be the use of power in decision-making during project initiation. Power manifests as the ability to influence others’ intent. In projects, its root lies in information, expertise, authority, legitimacy, and reputation. The notion of power has been recognised as a fundamental concept to explicate the behaviour of actors in a collaborative environment. This paper focuses on the delivery process of public infrastructure projects and investigates the asymmetry of power among participants in an attempt to unravel the complexity of decision authorities and delegations. In a conceptual isolation of central agencies from delivery agencies, a new concept of informal authority is devised to provide a reliable explanation of how delivery agency’s optimism may pay off in the presence of an asymmetric distribution of power. The paper concludes that power asymmetry is a critical success factor in public infrastructure projects and makes suggestions for future improvements.he prevailing approach to measure project success compares an ex-post outcome with the ex-ante plan. Comparisons of project success are often questioned, and actual success is unlikely to realised if the initial plan is excessively optimistic such as exaggerated benefits, overlooked risks, and unrealistic assumptions. Published literature suggests that technical inadequacies of estimation models, psychology of human mind, economic obligation for risk, and organisational misrepresentation may be factors that can explain this planning fallacy in projects. Nevertheless, these explanations are considered lacking as they do not adequately address the complexity of infrastructure project decision process. This paper goes beyond planning fallacy in a quest for a better explanation. A workshop of project experts was convened to test the earlier understandings relating to behaviours exhibited during the initiation of an infrastructure. Importantly it framed much of the interactive dialogues among participants around seven case study projects that were considered in the 2012 Parliamentary inquiry of the committee of the Public Accounts and Estimates Committee (PAEC) that explored the effectiveness of decision making in Victorian infrastructure delivery. It emerged that one of the key behaviours was considered to be the use of power in decision-making during project initiation. Power manifests as the ability to influence others’ intent. In projects, its root lies in information, expertise, authority, legitimacy, and reputation. The notion of power has been recognised as a fundamental concept to explicate the behaviour of actors in a collaborative environment. This paper focuses on the delivery process of public infrastructure projects and investigates the asymmetry of power among participants in an attempt to unravel the complexity of decision authorities and delegations. In a conceptual isolation of central agencies from delivery agencies, a new concept of informal authority is devised to provide a reliable explanation of how delivery agency’s optimism may pay off in the presence of an asymmetric distribution of power. The paper concludes that power asymmetry is a critical success factor in public infrastructure projects and makes suggestions for future improvements.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableMega-project governance – a case study in to the governance of a successfully delivered project(Engineering Project Organization Society, 2016)
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ItemImproving performance measurement of Public Private Partnership projects to incorporate benefits(Australian Institute of Project Management, 2015)
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ItemHow do we instil experience into Young Engineers? The Use of Posters as a Learning Tool in Engineering Project Management(School of Engineering, Deakin University, Victoria, Australia, 2015)