Infrastructure Engineering - Research Publications
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ItemA multi-model approach to assessing the impacts of catchment characteristics on spatial water quality in the Great Barrier Reef catchments(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2021-11-01)Water quality monitoring programs often collect large amounts of data with limited attention given to the assessment of the dominant drivers of spatial and temporal water quality variations at the catchment scale. This study uses a multi-model approach: a) to identify the influential catchment characteristics affecting spatial variability in water quality; and b) to predict spatial variability in water quality more reliably and robustly. Tropical catchments in the Great Barrier Reef (GBR) area, Australia, were used as a case study. We developed statistical models using 58 catchment characteristics to predict the spatial variability in water quality in 32 GBR catchments. An exhaustive search method coupled with multi-model inference approaches were used to identify important catchment characteristics and predict the spatial variation in water quality across catchments. Bootstrapping and cross-validation approaches were used to assess the uncertainty in identified important factors and robustness of multi-model structure, respectively. The results indicate that water quality variables were generally most influenced by the natural characteristics of catchments (e.g., soil type and annual rainfall), while anthropogenic characteristics (i.e., land use) also showed significant influence on dissolved nutrient species (e.g., NOX, NH4 and FRP). The multi-model structures developed in this work were able to predict average event-mean concentration well, with Nash-Sutcliffe coefficient ranging from 0.68 to 0.96. This work provides data-driven evidence for catchment managers, which can help them develop effective water quality management strategies.
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ItemRobust Climate Change Adaptation for Environmental Flows in the Goulburn River, Australia(FRONTIERS MEDIA SA, 2021-12-06)Climate change presents severe risks for the implementation and success of environmental flows worldwide. Current environmental flow assessments tend to assume climate stationarity, so there is an urgent need for robust environmental flow programs that allow adaptation to changing flow regimes due to climate change. Designing and implementing robust environmental flow programs means ensuring environmental objectives are achieved under a range of uncertain, but plausible climate futures. We apply stress testing concepts previously adopted in water supply management to environmental flows at a catchment scale. We do this by exploring vulnerabilities in different river management metrics for current environmental flow arrangements in the Goulburn River, Australia, under non-stationary climatic conditions. Given the limitations of current environmental flows in supporting ecological outcomes under climate change, we tested three different adaptation options individually and in combination. Stress testing adaptation results showed that increasing environmental entitlements yielded the largest benefits in drier climate futures, whereas relaxing river capacity constraints (allowing more targeted delivery of environmental water) offered more benefits for current and wetter climates. Combining both these options led to greater than additive improvements in allocation reliability and reductions in environmental water shortfalls, and these improvements were achieved across a wider range of climatic conditions than possible with either of the individual options. However, adaptation may present additional risks to some ecological outcomes for wetter climates. Ultimately, there was a degree of plausible climate change beyond which none of the adaptation options considered were effective at improving ecological outcomes. This study demonstrates an important step for environmental flow assessments: evaluating the feasibility of environmental outcomes under climate change, and the intervention options that prove most robust under an uncertain future.
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ItemThe politicisation of science in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: discussion of 'Scientific integrity, public policy and water governance'(Taylor & Francis, 2021-10-30)Many water scientists aim for their work to inform water policy and management, and in pursuit of this objective, they often work alongside government water agencies to ensure their research is relevant, timely and communicated effectively. A paper in this issue, examining 'Science integrity, public policy and water governance in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’, suggests that a large group of scientists, who work on water management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) including the Basin Plan, have been subject to possible ‘administrative capture'. Specifically, it is suggested that they have advocated for policies favoured by government agencies with the objective of gaining personal benefit, such as increased research funding. We examine evidence for this claim and conclude that it is not justified. The efforts of scientists working alongside government water agencies appear to have been misinterpreted as possible administrative capture. Although unsubstantiated, this claim does indicate that the science used in basin water planning is increasingly caught up in the politics of water management. We suggest actions to improve science-policy engagement in basin planning, to promote constructive debate over contested views and avoid the over-politicisation of basin science.
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ItemMonitoring of environmental flow outcomes in a large river basin: The Commonwealth Environmental Water Holder's long-term intervention in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia(WILEY, 2020-05)Abstract The Murray–Darling Basin in south‐eastern Australia contains over 70,000 km2 of wetlands and floodplains, many of which are in poor condition. In response, Australian governments have committed to a major restoration program, the Murray–Darling Basin Plan that includes management of 2,750 Gl of environmental water to protect and restore aquatic ecosystems. The restoration is being undertaken within an adaptive management framework that includes monitoring the outcomes of environmental flows in seven river valleys. This paper provides an overview of the 5‐year monitoring project and some preliminary results. Monitoring design considered the Basin Plan's environmental objectives, conceptual models of ecosystem responses to flow, and an outcomes framework linking flow responses to the environmental objectives. Monitoring indicators includes ecosystem type, vegetation, river metabolism, and fish. Responses are evaluated to identify the contribution of environmental flows to Basin Plan environmental objectives and continual improvements in management. The program is unique in that it seeks to monitor long‐term outcomes of environmental flows at the river basin scale. Despite many challenges, the monitoring has become a key part of the adaptive management of environmental flows in the Murray–Darling Basin.
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ItemA Bayesian approach to understanding the key factors influencing temporal variability in stream water quality - a case study in the Great Barrier Reef catchments(COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2021-05-20)Abstract. Stream water quality is highly variable both across space and time. Water quality monitoring programmes have collected a large amount of data that provide a good basis for investigating the key drivers of spatial and temporal variability. Event-based water quality monitoring data in the Great Barrier Reef catchments in northern Australia provide an opportunity to further our understanding of water quality dynamics in subtropical and tropical regions. This study investigated nine water quality constituents, including sediments, nutrients and salinity, with the aim of (1) identifying the influential environmental drivers of temporal variation in flow event concentrations and (2) developing a modelling framework to predict the temporal variation in water quality at multiple sites simultaneously. This study used a hierarchical Bayesian model averaging framework to explore the relationship between event concentration and catchment-scale environmental variables (e.g. runoff, rainfall and groundcover conditions). Key factors affecting the temporal changes in water quality varied among constituent concentrations and between catchments. Catchment rainfall and runoff affected in-stream particulate constituents, while catchment wetness and vegetation cover had more impact on dissolved nutrient concentration and salinity. In addition, in large dry catchments, antecedent catchment soil moisture and vegetation had a large influence on dissolved nutrients, which highlights the important effect of catchment hydrological connectivity on pollutant mobilisation and delivery.
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ItemClimate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk(WILEY, 2021-03)Abstract Many freshwater ecosystems are in decline because of anthropogenic disturbance including climate change, yet our understanding of ecological vulnerability to future conditions including climatic variation is limited. Understanding climate risks to freshwater ecosystems requires combining hydrological and ecological knowledge. While there have been significant advances in ecohydrological approaches when applied within the large array of methods available for undertaking impact assessments, the ecological and hydrological elements are often not well‐integrated. This results in a mismatch in their ability to accommodate the inherent uncertainty in both impacts and responses. We examine published literature that assesses climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems using both hydrological and ecological models to better understand method choices. We identify four fundamentally distinct modeling approaches used to assess climate change risk. We discuss which approaches are less useful for predicting ecological impacts under climate change, and highlight approaches of comparable complexity that can maximize the utility of dynamic, process‐based modeling while capturing the effects of climate uncertainty and variability. Using an illustrative case study of riparian vegetation health under climate change, we show how the four alternate modeling approaches feature different degrees of information in their outcomes and inferences about future risk. Most current studies that examine climate change risks to freshwater ecosystems use simplified methods or inadequately combine key elements. However, unless the interactions between changing hydrologic variability and ecological responses are explicitly captured in scale‐sensitive modeling methods, the risks of climate change to freshwater ecosystems will likely be substantially misrepresented, with negative consequences for effective management responses. Capturing these interactions requires combining ecological and hydrological methods of comparable complexity. This article is categorized under: Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Modeling Species and Community Interactions
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ItemDoes the topology of the river network influence the delivery of riverine ecosystem services?(WILEY, 2021-02)Abstract Riverine ecosystems provide important ecosystem services reflecting their unique forms and functions. While the effects of stressors such as land cover change, climate change and growing economies on riverine ecosystem services (RES) have been well researched, the effect of the structure of the river network itself is less understood. This paper compares the capacity of different river network topologies in the delivery of selected RES. For three contrasting synthetic river network topologies (Long Trellis Narrow; Coastal Dendritic; Inland Dendritic), we applied simple functional equations to model six RES: water supply, hydropower generation, sediment retention, nutrient uptake, flood attenuation and aquatic habitat provision. Results showed that the synthetic topologies deliver different levels of RES, driven by their differences in physical structure. For example, the Inland Dendritic network removed more nitrate and better attenuated flooding due to its relatively longer lower reaches but offered poorer prospects for water supply because the longer reaches were more susceptible to transmission losses (e.g., due to bed seepage). This study provides a valuable first step in understanding the effect of river network topology on RES delivery, and the relative strengths among network types. Understanding these effects can aid decision makers in the conservation and restoration of degraded river basins to preserve RES for future generations.
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ItemLearning from concurrent adaptive management in multiple catchments within a large environmental flows program in Australia(WILEY, 2020-05)Abstract Adaptive management is central to improving outcomes of environmental water delivery. The Australian Government's Murray−Darling Basin (MDB) Plan 2012 explicitly states that adaptive management should be applied in the planning, prioritisation and use of environmental water. A Long Term Intervention Monitoring (LTIM) program was established in 2014 to evaluate responses to environmental water delivery for seven Areas within the MDB, with evaluation also undertaken at the Basin scale. Adaptive management at the Area scale was assessed using two approaches: (a) through a reflective exercise undertaken by researchers, water managers and community members and (b) through an independent review and evaluation of the program, where relevant reports were reviewed and managers and researchers involved in the LTIM program were interviewed. Both assessment approaches revealed that the scale of management actions influenced the extent to which learnings were incorporated into subsequent actions. Although there were many examples where learnings within an Area had been used to adaptively manage subsequent environmental water deliveries within that Area, there was inconsistent documentation of the processes for incorporating learnings into decision making. Although this likely limited the sharing of learnings, there were also examples where learnings from one Area had influenced environmental water management in another, suggesting that sharing between concurrent projects can increase learning. The two assessments identified ways to improve and systematically document the adaptive management learnings. With improved processes to increase reflection, documentation and sharing of learnings across projects, there is an opportunity to improve management of environmental water and ecosystem outcomes.
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ItemA functional flows approach to selecting ecologically relevant flow metrics for environmental flow applications(WILEY, 2020-02-03)The science and practice of environmental flows have advanced significantly over the last several decades. Most environmental flow approaches require quantifying the relationships between hydrologic change and biologic response, but this can be challenging to determine and implement due to high data requirements, limited transferability, and the abundance of hydrologic metrics available for evaluation. We suggest that a functional flows approach, focusing on elements of the natural flow regime known to sustain important ecosystem processes, offers a pathway for linking understanding of ecosystem processes with discrete, quantifiable measures of the flow regime for a broad range of native taxa and assemblages. Functional flow components can be identified as distinct aspects of the annual hydrograph that support key biophysical processes, such as wet season flood flows or spring recession flows, and then quantified by flow metrics, such as 5% exceedance flow or daily percent decrease in flow, respectively. By selecting a discrete set of flow metrics that measure key functional flow components, the spatial and temporal complexity of flow regimes can be managed in a holistic manner supportive of multiple ecological processes and native aquatic species requirements. We provide an overview of the functional flows approach to selecting a defined set of flow metrics and illustrate its application in two seasonally variable stream systems. We further discuss how a functional flows approach can be utilized as a conceptual model both within and outside of existing environmental flow frameworks to guide consideration of ecological processes when designing prescribed flow regimes.
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ItemHow to incorporate climate change into modelling environmental water outcomes: a review(IWA Publishing, 2020-06-01)Environmental water represents a key resource in managing freshwater ecosystems against pervasive threats. The impacts of climate change add further pressures to environmental water management, yet anticipating these impacts through modelling approaches remains challenging due to the complexities of the climate, hydrological and ecological systems. In this paper, we review the challenges posed by each of these three areas. Large uncertainties in predicting climatic changes and non-stationarities in hydrological and ecological responses make anticipating impacts difficult. In addition, a legacy of relying on modelling approaches informed by historic dependencies in environmental water science may confound the prediction of ecological responses when extrapolating under novel conditions. We also discuss applying ecohydrological methods to support decision-making and review applications of bottom-up climate impact assessments (specifically eco-engineering decision scaling) to freshwater ecosystems. These approaches offer a promising way of incorporating climatic uncertainty and balancing competing environmental objectives, but some practical challenges remain in their adoption for modelling environmental water outcomes under climate change.