Infrastructure Engineering - Research Publications
Permanent URI for this collection
Search Results
1 - 10 of 38
-
ItemMultiple hydrological attractors under stochastic daily forcing: 1. Can multiple attractors exist?(AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2014-04-01)Including positive feedbacks in hydrological models has recently been shown to result in complex behavior with multiple steady states. When a large disturbance, say a major drought, is simulated within such models the hydrology changes. Once the disturbance ends the hydrology does not return to that prior to the disturbance, but rather, persists within an alternate state. These multiple steady states (henceforth attractors) exist for a single model parameterization and cause the system to have a finite resilience to such transient disturbances. A limitation of past hydrological resilience studies is that multiple attractors have been identified using mean annual or mean monthly forcing. Considering that most hydrological fluxes are subject to significant forcing stochasticity and do not operate at such large timescales, it remains an open question whether multiple hydrological attractors can exist when a catchment is subject to stochastic daily forcing. This question is the focus of this paper and it needs to be addressed prior to searching for multiple hydrological attractors in the field. To investigate this, a previously developed semidistributed hillslope ecohydrological model was adopted which exhibited multiple steady states under average monthly climate forcing. In this paper, the ecohydrological model was used to explore if feedbacks between the vegetation and a saline water table result in two attractors existing under daily stochastic forcing. The attractors and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor) were quantified using a new limit cycle continuation technique that upscaled climate forcing from daily to monthly (model and limit cycle code is freely available). The method was used to determine the values of saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity at which multiple attractors exist. These estimates were then assessed against time-integration estimates, which they agreed with. Overall, multiple attractors were found to exist under stochastic daily forcing. However, changing the climate forcing from monthly to daily did significantly reduce the parameter range over which two attractors existed. This suggests fewer catchments may have multiple attractors than previously considered.
-
ItemMultiple hydrological attractors under stochastic daily forcing: 2. Can multiple attractors emerge?(AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2014-04-01)The companion paper showed that multiple steady state groundwater levels can exist within a hill-slope Boussinesq-vegetation model under daily stochastic forcing. Using a numerical limit-cycle continuation algorithm, the steady states (henceforth attractors) and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor) were quantified at a range of saturated lateral conductivity values, ksmax. This paper investigates if stochastic daily forcing can switch the catchment between both of the attractors. That is, an attractor may exist under average forcing conditions but can stochastic forcing switch the catchment into and out of each of the attractor basins-; i.e., making the attractor emerge. This was undertaken using the model of the companion paper and by completing daily time-integration simulations at six values of the saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity, ksmax; three having two attractors and three having only a deep water table attractor. By graphically analyzing the simulations, and comparing against simulations from a model modified to have only one attractor, multiple attractors were found to emerge under stochastic daily forcing. However, the emergence of attractors was significantly more subtle and complex than that suggested by the companion paper. That is, an attractor may exist but never emerge; both attractors may exist and both may emerge but identifying the switching between attractors was often ambiguous; and only one attractor may exist and but a second temporary attractor may exist and emerge during periods of high precipitation. This subtle and complex emergence of attractors was explained using continuation analysis of the climate forcing rate, and not a model parameter such as ksmax. It showed that the temporary attractor existed over a large range of ksmax values and this suggests that more catchments may have multiple attractors than suggested by the companion paper. By combining this continuation analysis with the time-integration simulations, hydrological signatures indicative of a switch of multiple attractors were proposed. These signatures may provide a means for identifying actual catchments that have switched between multiple attractors. Key Points Stochastic daily forcing can switch a catchment to both attractors Emergence of attractors differs significantly from the existence of attractors Switching between attractor basins can be subtle and difficult to identify
-
ItemBeyond triple collocation: Applications to soil moisture monitoring(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2014-06-16)Abstract Triple collocation (TC) is routinely used to resolve approximated linear relationships between different measurements (or representations) of a geophysical variable that are subject to errors. It has been utilized in the context of calibration, validation, bias correction, and error characterization to allow comparisons of diverse data records from various direct and indirect measurement techniques including in situ remote sensing and model‐based approaches. However, successful applications of TC require sufficiently large numbers of coincident data points from three independent time series and, within the analysis period, homogeneity of their linear relationships and error structures. These conditions are difficult to realize in practice due to infrequent spatiotemporal sampling of satellite and ground‐based sensors. TC can, however, be generalized within the framework ofinstrumental variable(IV) regression theory to address some of the conceptual constraints of TC. We review the theoretics of IV and consider one possible strategy to circumvent the three‐data constraint by use of lagged variables (LV) as instruments. This particular implementation of IV is suitable for circumstances where multiple data records are limited and the geophysical variable of interest is sampled at time intervals shorter than its temporal correlation length. As a demonstration of utility, the LV method is applied to microwave satellite soil moisture data sets to recover their errors over Australia and to estimate temporal properties of their relationships with in situ and model data. These results are compared against standard two‐data linear estimators and the TC estimator as benchmark.
-
ItemNonlinear time-series modeling of unconfined groundwater head(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2014-10)Abstract This paper presents a nonlinear transfer function noise model for time‐series modeling of unconfined groundwater hydrographs. The motivation for its development was that existing groundwater time‐series models were unable to simulate large recharge events and multiyear droughts. This was because existing methods do not partition rainfall to runoff and do not account for nonlinear soil water drainage. To account for these nonlinear processes, a vertically integrated soil moisture module was added to an existing transfer function noise model. The soil moisture module has a highly flexible structure that allowed 84 different forms to be built. Application of the time‐series model requires numerical calibration of parameters for the transfer functions, noise model and, for the nonlinear models, the soil moisture module. This was undertaken using the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolutionary Strategy (CMA‐ES) global calibration scheme. However, reproducible calibration to the global optima was challenging and a number of modifications were required to the transfer function noise model. In trialing the 84 nonlinear models and 2 linear models, each was applied to eleven observation bores within a paired catchment study area in Great Western, Victoria, Australia. In comparison with existing groundwater hydrograph time‐series models, the proposed nonlinear time‐series model performed significantly better at all observation bores during calibration and evaluation periods. Both the linear and nonlinear models were also used to quantify the impact of revegetation within the paired catchment; however, results were inconclusive, which is likely due to time‐series data for the state of the revegetation being unavailable. By analyzing the application of 84 nonlinear models to each bore, an optimal structure for the soil moisture module was identified. It is unlikely, however, that this model structure would be appropriate for all climates and geologies. To encourage further investigations, open‐source code for the highly flexible groundwater time‐series modeling framework is available and we invite others to develop new models.
-
ItemEvolution of the human-water relationships in the Heihe River basin in the past 2000 years(COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2015)Abstract. This paper quantitatively analyzed the evolution of human–water relationships in the Heihe River basin of northern China over the past 2000 years by reconstructing the catchment water balance by partitioning precipitation into evapotranspiration and runoff. The results provided the basis for investigating the impacts of societies on hydrological systems. Based on transition theory and the rates of changes of the population, human water consumption and the area of natural oases, the evolution of human–water relationships can be divided into four stages: predevelopment (206 BC–AD 1368), take-off (AD 1368–1949), acceleration (AD 1949–2000), and the start of a rebalancing between human and ecological needs (post AD 2000). Our analysis of the evolutionary process revealed that there were large differences in the rate and scale of changes and the period over which they occurred. The transition of the human–water relationship had no fixed pattern. This understanding of the dynamics of the human–water relationship will assist policy makers in identifying management practices that require improvement by understanding how today's problems were created in the past, which may lead to more sustainable catchment management in the future.
-
ItemAssimilation of stream discharge for flood forecasting: Updating a semidistributed model with an integrated data assimilation scheme(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2015-05)Abstract Real‐time discharge observations can be assimilated into flood models to improve forecast accuracy; however, the presence of time lags in the routing process and a lack of methods to quantitatively represent different sources of uncertainties challenge the implementation of data assimilation techniques for operational flood forecasting. To address these issues, an integrated error parameter estimation and lag‐aware data assimilation (IEELA) scheme was recently developed for a lumped model. The scheme combines an ensemble‐based maximum a posteriori (MAP) error estimation approach with a lag‐aware ensemble Kalman smoother (EnKS). In this study, the IEELA scheme is extended to a semidistributed model to provide for more general application in flood forecasting by including spatial and temporal correlations in model uncertainties between subcatchments. The result reveals that using a semidistributed model leads to more accurate forecasts than a lumped model in an open‐loop scenario. The IEELA scheme improves the forecast accuracy significantly in both lumped and semidistributed models, and the superiority of the semidistributed model remains in the data assimilation scenario. However, the improvements resulting from IEELA are confined to the outlet of the catchment where the discharge observations are assimilated. Forecasts at “ungauged” internal locations are not improved, and in some instances, even become less accurate.
-
ItemBalancing Rural Household Livelihood and Regional Ecological Footprint in Water Source Areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project(MDPI AG, 2017-08)There is a knowledge gap and practical demand to understand the co-evolutionary relationship between rural household livelihood and regional ecological footprints for developing sustainable livelihoods in ecological conservation regions. This paper tracks the change trajectories of rural household livelihoods and regional ecological footprints in four water source areas of the South-to-North Water Diversion Project where various ecological and environmental protection projects and measures are being proposed to protect water quality. As a result, some concerns regarding rural livelihood have arisen. The sustainable livelihood approach developed by DFID (Department for International Development in UK) was used to measure the natural, physical, financial, human, and social capitals of rural livelihoods, while the ecological footprint accounting approach was used to calculate the amount of bio-productive spaces that produce the yearly resource flows for human consumption. The study period is 2000–2014 and data was obtained from the Statistical Yearbooks. The results show that the change trend of natural capitals of rural households, which have increased by 72.5% (SY), 98.8% (NY), 69.3% (TA), and 120.3% (JN) within 15 years, determine the overall change track of rural livelihoods and that rural household livelihood grows with the expansion of regional ecological footprints. Sensitivity of regional eco-footprints to rural livelihood varies from 5.8 to 0.5 in case areas. It is recommended that in the “post South-to-North Water Diversion era”, four policy instruments—population transfer and relocation, industrial restructuring and updating, rural infrastructure and community reconstruction, and cross-ecological compensation—should be adopted to improve sustainable livelihoods in these four water source areas.
-
ItemKey factors influencing differences in stream water quality across space(WILEY, 2018-01-01)Globally, many rivers are experiencing declining water quality, for example, with altered levels of sediments, salts, and nutrients. Effective water quality management requires a sound understanding of how and why water quality differs across space, both within and between river catchments. Land cover, land use, land management, atmospheric deposition, geology and soil type, climate, topography, and catchment hydrology are the key features of a catchment that affect: (1) the amount of suspended sediment, nutrient, and salt concentrations in catchments (i.e., the source), (2) the mobilization ,and (3) the delivery of these constituents to receiving waters. There are, however, complexities in the relationship between landscape characteristics and stream water quality. The strength of this relationship can be influenced by the distance and spatial arrangement of constituent sources within the catchment, cross correlations between landscape characteristics, and seasonality. A knowledge gap that should be addressed in future studies is that of interactions and cross correlations between landscape characteristics. There is currently limited understanding of how the relationships between landscape characteristics and water quality responses can shift based on the other characteristics of the catchment. Understanding the many forces driving stream water quality and the complexities and interactions in these forces is necessary for the development of successful water quality management strategies. This knowledge could be used to develop predictive models, which would aid in forecasting of riverine water quality. WIREs Water 2018, 5:e1260. doi: 10.1002/wat2.1260 This article is categorized under: Science of Water > Hydrological Processes Science of Water > Water Quality
-
ItemAn evaluation of a methodology for seasonal soil water forecasting for Australian dry land cropping systems(ELSEVIER, 2018-05-01)Soil water is a critical resource in many rain-fed agricultural systems. Climate variability represents a significant risk in these systems, which has been addressed in the past through seasonal weather outlooks. This study undertakes a pilot assessment of the potential to extend seasonal weather outlooks to plant available soil water (PASW). We analyse 20 sites in the southeast Australian wheat belt using seasonal weather outlooks from the Predictive Ocean-Atmosphere Model for Australia (POAMA; (the operational seasonal model of the Australian Bureau of Meteorology), which were downscaled and used in conjunction with the Agricultural Production Simulator (APSIM). Hindcast rainfall, potential evapotranspiration (PET) and PASW outlooks were produced on a monthly basis for 33 years at a point scale. The outlooks were assessed using a range of ensemble verification tools. The results showed hit rates that outperformed climatology for rainfall and PET in the short-term (0–2 months), and for PASW with longer lead times (2–5 months). Continuous rank probability skill scores (CRPSS) were generally statistically worse than climatology for rainfall and PET and statistically better than climatology for PASW over 1–3 months. The influence of initial soil water is seasonally dependent, with longer dependence in low evapotranspiration periods. Improved weather model downscaling approaches would transition to climatology and could improve both weather and PASW outlooks. PASW outlooks were strongly reliant on initial conditions, indicating the importance of understanding current soil water status, which needs to be interpreted in a seasonal context as its influence varies over the year. Expanded operational soil water monitoring would be important if PASW outlooks are to become routine.
-
ItemPredicting groundwater recharge for varying land cover and climate conditions - a global meta-study(COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2018-05-07)Abstract. Groundwater recharge is one of the important factors determining the groundwater development potential of an area. Even though recharge plays a key role in controlling groundwater system dynamics, much uncertainty remains regarding the relationships between groundwater recharge and its governing factors at a large scale. Therefore, this study aims to identify the most influential factors of groundwater recharge, and to develop an empirical model to estimate diffuse rainfall recharge at a global scale. Recharge estimates reported in the literature from various parts of the world (715 sites) were compiled and used in model building and testing exercises. Unlike conventional recharge estimates from water balance, this study used a multimodel inference approach and information theory to explain the relationship between groundwater recharge and influential factors, and to predict groundwater recharge at 0.5∘ resolution. The results show that meteorological factors (precipitation and potential evapotranspiration) and vegetation factors (land use and land cover) had the most predictive power for recharge. According to the model, long-term global average annual recharge (1981–2014) was 134 mm yr−1 with a prediction error ranging from −8 to 10 mm yr−1 for 97.2 % of cases. The recharge estimates presented in this study are unique and more reliable than the existing global groundwater recharge estimates because of the extensive validation carried out using both independent local estimates collated from the literature and national statistics from the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO). In a water-scarce future driven by increased anthropogenic development, the results from this study will aid in making informed decisions about groundwater potential at a large scale.