Infrastructure Engineering - Research Publications
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ItemMulti-scale analysis of bias correction of soil moisture( 2014-07-29)Abstract. Remote sensing, in situ networks and models are now providing unprecedented information for environmental monitoring. To conjunctively use multi-source data nominally representing an identical variable, one must resolve biases existing between these disparate sources, and the characteristics of the biases can be non-trivial due to spatiotemporal variability of the target variable, inter-sensor differences with variable measurement supports. One such example is of soil moisture (SM) monitoring. Triple collocation (TC) based bias correction is a powerful statistical method that increasingly being used to address this issue but is only applicable to the linear regime, whereas nonlinear method of statistical moment matching is susceptible to unintended biases originating from measurement error. Since different physical processes that influence SM dynamics may be distinguishable by their characteristic spatiotemporal scales, we propose a multi-time-scale linear bias model in the framework of a wavelet-based multi-resolution analysis (MRA). The joint MRA-TC analysis was applied to demonstrate scale-dependent biases between in situ, remotely-sensed and modelled SM, the influence of various prospective bias correction schemes on these biases, and lastly to enable multi-scale bias correction and data adaptive, nonlinear de-noising via wavelet thresholding.
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ItemImproving operational flood ensemble prediction by the assimilation of satellite soil moisture: comparison between lumped and semi-distributed schemes( 2014-09-23)Abstract. Assimilation of remotely sensed soil moisture data (SM–DA) to correct soil water stores of rainfall-runoff models has shown skill in improving streamflow prediction. In the case of large and sparsely monitored catchments, SM–DA is a particularly attractive tool. Within this context, we assimilate active and passive satellite soil moisture (SSM) retrievals using an ensemble Kalman filter to improve operational flood prediction within a large semi-arid catchment in Australia (>40 000 km2). We assess the importance of accounting for channel routing and the spatial distribution of forcing data by applying SM–DA to a lumped and a semi-distributed scheme of the probability distributed model (PDM). Our scheme also accounts for model error representation and seasonal biases and errors in the satellite data. Before assimilation, the semi-distributed model provided more accurate streamflow prediction (Nash–Sutcliffe efficiency, NS = 0.77) than the lumped model (NS = 0.67) at the catchment outlet. However, this did not ensure good performance at the "ungauged" inner catchments. After SM–DA, the streamflow ensemble prediction at the outlet was improved in both the lumped and the semi-distributed schemes: the root mean square error of the ensemble was reduced by 27 and 31%, respectively; the NS of the ensemble mean increased by 7 and 38%, respectively; the false alarm ratio was reduced by 15 and 25%, respectively; and the ensemble prediction spread was reduced while its reliability was maintained. Our findings imply that even when rainfall is the main driver of flooding in semi-arid catchments, adequately processed SSM can be used to reduce errors in the model soil moisture, which in turn provides better streamflow ensemble prediction. We demonstrate that SM–DA efficacy is enhanced when the spatial distribution in forcing data and routing processes are accounted for. At ungauged locations, SM–DA is effective at improving streamflow ensemble prediction, however, the updated prediction is still poor since SM–DA does not address systematic errors in the model.
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ItemLoss of Sirt1 function improves intestinal anti-bacterial defense and protects from colitis-induced colorectal cancer.(Public Library of Science (PLoS), 2014)Dysfunction of Paneth and goblet cells in the intestine contributes to inflammatory bowel disease (IBD) and colitis-associated colorectal cancer (CAC). Here, we report a role for the NAD+-dependent histone deacetylase SIRT1 in the control of anti-bacterial defense. Mice with an intestinal specific Sirt1 deficiency (Sirt1int-/-) have more Paneth and goblet cells with a consequent rearrangement of the gut microbiota. From a mechanistic point of view, the effects on mouse intestinal cell maturation are mediated by SIRT1-dependent changes in the acetylation status of SPDEF, a master regulator of Paneth and goblet cells. Our results suggest that targeting SIRT1 may be of interest in the management of IBD and CAC.
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ItemMultiple hydrological attractors under stochastic daily forcing: 1. Can multiple attractors exist?(AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2014-04-01)Including positive feedbacks in hydrological models has recently been shown to result in complex behavior with multiple steady states. When a large disturbance, say a major drought, is simulated within such models the hydrology changes. Once the disturbance ends the hydrology does not return to that prior to the disturbance, but rather, persists within an alternate state. These multiple steady states (henceforth attractors) exist for a single model parameterization and cause the system to have a finite resilience to such transient disturbances. A limitation of past hydrological resilience studies is that multiple attractors have been identified using mean annual or mean monthly forcing. Considering that most hydrological fluxes are subject to significant forcing stochasticity and do not operate at such large timescales, it remains an open question whether multiple hydrological attractors can exist when a catchment is subject to stochastic daily forcing. This question is the focus of this paper and it needs to be addressed prior to searching for multiple hydrological attractors in the field. To investigate this, a previously developed semidistributed hillslope ecohydrological model was adopted which exhibited multiple steady states under average monthly climate forcing. In this paper, the ecohydrological model was used to explore if feedbacks between the vegetation and a saline water table result in two attractors existing under daily stochastic forcing. The attractors and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor) were quantified using a new limit cycle continuation technique that upscaled climate forcing from daily to monthly (model and limit cycle code is freely available). The method was used to determine the values of saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity at which multiple attractors exist. These estimates were then assessed against time-integration estimates, which they agreed with. Overall, multiple attractors were found to exist under stochastic daily forcing. However, changing the climate forcing from monthly to daily did significantly reduce the parameter range over which two attractors existed. This suggests fewer catchments may have multiple attractors than previously considered.
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ItemMultiple hydrological attractors under stochastic daily forcing: 2. Can multiple attractors emerge?(AMERICAN GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2014-04-01)The companion paper showed that multiple steady state groundwater levels can exist within a hill-slope Boussinesq-vegetation model under daily stochastic forcing. Using a numerical limit-cycle continuation algorithm, the steady states (henceforth attractors) and the threshold between them (henceforth repellor) were quantified at a range of saturated lateral conductivity values, ksmax. This paper investigates if stochastic daily forcing can switch the catchment between both of the attractors. That is, an attractor may exist under average forcing conditions but can stochastic forcing switch the catchment into and out of each of the attractor basins-; i.e., making the attractor emerge. This was undertaken using the model of the companion paper and by completing daily time-integration simulations at six values of the saturated lateral hydraulic conductivity, ksmax; three having two attractors and three having only a deep water table attractor. By graphically analyzing the simulations, and comparing against simulations from a model modified to have only one attractor, multiple attractors were found to emerge under stochastic daily forcing. However, the emergence of attractors was significantly more subtle and complex than that suggested by the companion paper. That is, an attractor may exist but never emerge; both attractors may exist and both may emerge but identifying the switching between attractors was often ambiguous; and only one attractor may exist and but a second temporary attractor may exist and emerge during periods of high precipitation. This subtle and complex emergence of attractors was explained using continuation analysis of the climate forcing rate, and not a model parameter such as ksmax. It showed that the temporary attractor existed over a large range of ksmax values and this suggests that more catchments may have multiple attractors than suggested by the companion paper. By combining this continuation analysis with the time-integration simulations, hydrological signatures indicative of a switch of multiple attractors were proposed. These signatures may provide a means for identifying actual catchments that have switched between multiple attractors. Key Points Stochastic daily forcing can switch a catchment to both attractors Emergence of attractors differs significantly from the existence of attractors Switching between attractor basins can be subtle and difficult to identify
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ItemBeyond triple collocation: Applications to soil moisture monitoring(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2014-06-16)Abstract Triple collocation (TC) is routinely used to resolve approximated linear relationships between different measurements (or representations) of a geophysical variable that are subject to errors. It has been utilized in the context of calibration, validation, bias correction, and error characterization to allow comparisons of diverse data records from various direct and indirect measurement techniques including in situ remote sensing and model‐based approaches. However, successful applications of TC require sufficiently large numbers of coincident data points from three independent time series and, within the analysis period, homogeneity of their linear relationships and error structures. These conditions are difficult to realize in practice due to infrequent spatiotemporal sampling of satellite and ground‐based sensors. TC can, however, be generalized within the framework ofinstrumental variable(IV) regression theory to address some of the conceptual constraints of TC. We review the theoretics of IV and consider one possible strategy to circumvent the three‐data constraint by use of lagged variables (LV) as instruments. This particular implementation of IV is suitable for circumstances where multiple data records are limited and the geophysical variable of interest is sampled at time intervals shorter than its temporal correlation length. As a demonstration of utility, the LV method is applied to microwave satellite soil moisture data sets to recover their errors over Australia and to estimate temporal properties of their relationships with in situ and model data. These results are compared against standard two‐data linear estimators and the TC estimator as benchmark.
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ItemNonlinear time-series modeling of unconfined groundwater head(AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2014-10)Abstract This paper presents a nonlinear transfer function noise model for time‐series modeling of unconfined groundwater hydrographs. The motivation for its development was that existing groundwater time‐series models were unable to simulate large recharge events and multiyear droughts. This was because existing methods do not partition rainfall to runoff and do not account for nonlinear soil water drainage. To account for these nonlinear processes, a vertically integrated soil moisture module was added to an existing transfer function noise model. The soil moisture module has a highly flexible structure that allowed 84 different forms to be built. Application of the time‐series model requires numerical calibration of parameters for the transfer functions, noise model and, for the nonlinear models, the soil moisture module. This was undertaken using the Covariance Matrix Adaptation Evolutionary Strategy (CMA‐ES) global calibration scheme. However, reproducible calibration to the global optima was challenging and a number of modifications were required to the transfer function noise model. In trialing the 84 nonlinear models and 2 linear models, each was applied to eleven observation bores within a paired catchment study area in Great Western, Victoria, Australia. In comparison with existing groundwater hydrograph time‐series models, the proposed nonlinear time‐series model performed significantly better at all observation bores during calibration and evaluation periods. Both the linear and nonlinear models were also used to quantify the impact of revegetation within the paired catchment; however, results were inconclusive, which is likely due to time‐series data for the state of the revegetation being unavailable. By analyzing the application of 84 nonlinear models to each bore, an optimal structure for the soil moisture module was identified. It is unlikely, however, that this model structure would be appropriate for all climates and geologies. To encourage further investigations, open‐source code for the highly flexible groundwater time‐series modeling framework is available and we invite others to develop new models.
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ItemIdentifying conservation priorities for aquatic refugia in an arid zone, ephemeral catchment: a hydrological approach(WILEY, 2014-12)The conservation priorities for protecting aquatic habitat of arid zone rivers requires an understanding of the drivers of distribution, characteristics and persistence of aquatic refugia in ephemeral to intermittent arid zone rivers. We describe and analyse the aquatic refugia that persist during drought periods in a large, arid, ephemeral river, the Neales River of central Australia, concentrating on refugia for fish and the hydrological processes that influence their location, characteristics and persistence. Field data were collected on flow events, water-level fluctuations in waterbodies during periods of no flow, waterbody dimensions and salinity. Modelling of open-water evaporation rates, analysis of salinity changes and frequency of flow events were used to investigate the main processes determining the persistence of waterbodies. The catchment contained both fluvial waterholes and artesian springs providing aquatic refugia. In addition, anthropogenic refugia, in the form of small dams situated on the floodplain and uncontrolled flow from artesian bores, also provided potential refuge. The catchment only contained one waterhole that had a cease-to-flow depth sufficient to persist over a no-flow period of 24months, but this would also dry within 24-30months. The capacity of the artesian springs to act as refugia is limited by their shallow depths and limited connectivity with the main river system. These data illustrate the vulnerability of the fluvial ecology of ephemeral, arid zone rivers to long-term droughts and water resource use and assist in identifying specific refugia that require conservation management.
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