Infrastructure Engineering - Research Publications
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ItemNarrative-informed exploratory analysis of energy transition pathways: A case study of India's electricity sector(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2017-11)Energy transitions unfold under the influence of socio-technical, political and economic uncertainties. This paper introduces a narrative-informed exploratory approach for analysing future energy transition pathways under these uncertainty conditions. In this approach, exploratory modelling is used to explore the impact of various uncertainties, such as potential installed capacity and supporting policies for different energy options, on the unfolding of transition pathways. The approach produces several sets of scenarios. We complement this quantitative exploration of the future with narratives (storylines) generated based on the concepts in the sustainability transitions field. Narratives are used (i) as a supporting framework for model structure; (ii) to guide the exploration of the future; and (iii) to interpret the ensemble of quantitative scenarios. We describe how synergies between narratives and exploratory modelling inform both the framed and open-ended exploration of future transition pathways. The approach is demonstrated with a case study of the transition in India's electricity sector. We show that the realisation of the 100 GW solar electricity target by 2022 is unlikely, and that the development of solar electricity is highly dependent on the active role of government.
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ItemTransition dynamics in state-influenced niche empowerments: Experiences from India's electricity sector(Elesevier, 2017-03-01)India experiences transitional changes in its electricity sector from fossil fuels towards renewable sources. An electricity sector with 0% wind and solar (of 16 GW total installed capacity) in 1974 has been transformed and reached a status with 11% wind and solar (of 302 GW total installed capacity) in 2016. The observed changes have complex dynamics, shaped by the decisions of public and private actors in a semi-liberalised market condition, while profoundly influenced by government's supporting policies. It is called a state-influenced empowerment of the renewable niches in the electricity sector. This paper presents an empirically-underpinned theoretical framework to explain the specific dynamics of this context. Understanding of the dynamics provides strategic insights on how government's policies have driven the niche empowerment to date and what should be done to further promote this transition in future. The core concepts of the framework are developed through an iterative process between theoretical deduction from the existing theories in the sustainability transitions field and empirical grounding in the Indian on-grid solar electricity as a case study. Four strategic insights for the further empowerment of solar electricity in future are identified based on the implementation of the framework in the case study.
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ItemIndia's on-grid solar power development: Historical transitions, present status and future driving forces(Elsevier, 2017-03-01)India with a fast growing demand for electricity and increasing consideration to emissions reduction is investing strongly in renewable electricity generation. Among renewables, the Central and State Governments have set aspirational targets for on-grid solar electricity and legislated several supporting policies to realise these targets. As a result of the favourable political environment, the development of on-grid solar, in terms of the rate of growth in installed capacity, has been increasing in the recent years, and it is expected to continue in the future. This paper aims to investigate the impact of historical transitions of India's electricity sector on the ongoing development of on-grid solar electricity and to explore the prospect of solar sector development in the future. First of all, we investigate how the historical transformation of governmental intervention's approach intertwined with the gradual shift of the source of generation has paved the way for the current achievements in on-grid solar electricity. Second, we envision the future challenges and opportunities for the development of solar sector by looking ahead and discussing the continuity of government's support and the prospective competitions between different sources. We conclude the paper with some required steps to be taken in order to secure the achievement of the targets in solar electricity in the future.