Infrastructure Engineering - Research Publications
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ItemManaging risks associated with environmental water delivery: a case study of the Goulburn River, Australia(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2024-01-01)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableExploring the role and decision-making behavior of irrigation water supply authorities in Australia(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2023-03-04)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableThe time of emergence of climate-induced hydrologic change in Australian rivers(ELSEVIER, 2023-04)
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ItemRobust Climate Change Adaptation for Environmental Flows in the Goulburn River, Australia(FRONTIERS MEDIA SA, 2021-12-06)Climate change presents severe risks for the implementation and success of environmental flows worldwide. Current environmental flow assessments tend to assume climate stationarity, so there is an urgent need for robust environmental flow programs that allow adaptation to changing flow regimes due to climate change. Designing and implementing robust environmental flow programs means ensuring environmental objectives are achieved under a range of uncertain, but plausible climate futures. We apply stress testing concepts previously adopted in water supply management to environmental flows at a catchment scale. We do this by exploring vulnerabilities in different river management metrics for current environmental flow arrangements in the Goulburn River, Australia, under non-stationary climatic conditions. Given the limitations of current environmental flows in supporting ecological outcomes under climate change, we tested three different adaptation options individually and in combination. Stress testing adaptation results showed that increasing environmental entitlements yielded the largest benefits in drier climate futures, whereas relaxing river capacity constraints (allowing more targeted delivery of environmental water) offered more benefits for current and wetter climates. Combining both these options led to greater than additive improvements in allocation reliability and reductions in environmental water shortfalls, and these improvements were achieved across a wider range of climatic conditions than possible with either of the individual options. However, adaptation may present additional risks to some ecological outcomes for wetter climates. Ultimately, there was a degree of plausible climate change beyond which none of the adaptation options considered were effective at improving ecological outcomes. This study demonstrates an important step for environmental flow assessments: evaluating the feasibility of environmental outcomes under climate change, and the intervention options that prove most robust under an uncertain future.
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ItemThe politicisation of science in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia: discussion of 'Scientific integrity, public policy and water governance'(Taylor & Francis, 2021-10-30)Many water scientists aim for their work to inform water policy and management, and in pursuit of this objective, they often work alongside government water agencies to ensure their research is relevant, timely and communicated effectively. A paper in this issue, examining 'Science integrity, public policy and water governance in the Murray-Darling Basin, Australia’, suggests that a large group of scientists, who work on water management in the Murray-Darling Basin (MDB) including the Basin Plan, have been subject to possible ‘administrative capture'. Specifically, it is suggested that they have advocated for policies favoured by government agencies with the objective of gaining personal benefit, such as increased research funding. We examine evidence for this claim and conclude that it is not justified. The efforts of scientists working alongside government water agencies appear to have been misinterpreted as possible administrative capture. Although unsubstantiated, this claim does indicate that the science used in basin water planning is increasingly caught up in the politics of water management. We suggest actions to improve science-policy engagement in basin planning, to promote constructive debate over contested views and avoid the over-politicisation of basin science.
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ItemInforming Environmental Water Management Decisions: Using Conditional Probability Networks to Address the Information Needs of Planning and Implementation Cycles(SPRINGER, 2018-03)One important aspect of adaptive management is the clear and transparent documentation of hypotheses, together with the use of predictive models (complete with any assumptions) to test those hypotheses. Documentation of such models can improve the ability to learn from management decisions and supports dialog between stakeholders. A key challenge is how best to represent the existing scientific knowledge to support decision-making. Such challenges are currently emerging in the field of environmental water management in Australia, where managers are required to prioritize the delivery of environmental water on an annual basis, using a transparent and evidence-based decision framework. We argue that the development of models of ecological responses to environmental water use needs to support both the planning and implementation cycles of adaptive management. Here we demonstrate an approach based on the use of Conditional Probability Networks to translate existing ecological knowledge into quantitative models that include temporal dynamics to support adaptive environmental flow management. It equally extends to other applications where knowledge is incomplete, but decisions must still be made.
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ItemClimate change and freshwater ecology: Hydrological and ecological methods of comparable complexity are needed to predict risk(WILEY, 2021-03)Abstract Many freshwater ecosystems are in decline because of anthropogenic disturbance including climate change, yet our understanding of ecological vulnerability to future conditions including climatic variation is limited. Understanding climate risks to freshwater ecosystems requires combining hydrological and ecological knowledge. While there have been significant advances in ecohydrological approaches when applied within the large array of methods available for undertaking impact assessments, the ecological and hydrological elements are often not well‐integrated. This results in a mismatch in their ability to accommodate the inherent uncertainty in both impacts and responses. We examine published literature that assesses climate change impacts on freshwater ecosystems using both hydrological and ecological models to better understand method choices. We identify four fundamentally distinct modeling approaches used to assess climate change risk. We discuss which approaches are less useful for predicting ecological impacts under climate change, and highlight approaches of comparable complexity that can maximize the utility of dynamic, process‐based modeling while capturing the effects of climate uncertainty and variability. Using an illustrative case study of riparian vegetation health under climate change, we show how the four alternate modeling approaches feature different degrees of information in their outcomes and inferences about future risk. Most current studies that examine climate change risks to freshwater ecosystems use simplified methods or inadequately combine key elements. However, unless the interactions between changing hydrologic variability and ecological responses are explicitly captured in scale‐sensitive modeling methods, the risks of climate change to freshwater ecosystems will likely be substantially misrepresented, with negative consequences for effective management responses. Capturing these interactions requires combining ecological and hydrological methods of comparable complexity. This article is categorized under: Climate, Ecology, and Conservation > Modeling Species and Community Interactions
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ItemHow to incorporate climate change into modelling environmental water outcomes: a review(IWA Publishing, 2020-06-01)Environmental water represents a key resource in managing freshwater ecosystems against pervasive threats. The impacts of climate change add further pressures to environmental water management, yet anticipating these impacts through modelling approaches remains challenging due to the complexities of the climate, hydrological and ecological systems. In this paper, we review the challenges posed by each of these three areas. Large uncertainties in predicting climatic changes and non-stationarities in hydrological and ecological responses make anticipating impacts difficult. In addition, a legacy of relying on modelling approaches informed by historic dependencies in environmental water science may confound the prediction of ecological responses when extrapolating under novel conditions. We also discuss applying ecohydrological methods to support decision-making and review applications of bottom-up climate impact assessments (specifically eco-engineering decision scaling) to freshwater ecosystems. These approaches offer a promising way of incorporating climatic uncertainty and balancing competing environmental objectives, but some practical challenges remain in their adoption for modelling environmental water outcomes under climate change.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableENVIRONMENTAL FLOWS AND ECO-HYDROLOGICAL ASSESSMENTS IN RIVERS(ACADEMIC PRESS LTD-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2017)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableMOVING FORWARD: THE IMPLEMENTATION CHALLENGE FOR ENVIRONMENTAL WATER MANAGEMENT(ACADEMIC PRESS LTD-ELSEVIER SCIENCE LTD, 2017)