University General - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailablePostexposure prophylaxis during COVID-19 lockdown in Melbourne, Australia(ELSEVIER INC, 2020-08)
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ItemDomestic HPV vaccine price and economic returns for cervical cancer prevention in China: a cost-effectiveness analysis(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2020-10)BACKGROUND: Coinciding with the release of the first Chinese domestic human papillomavirus (HPV) vaccine Cecolin in 2019, and the substantial advancements in cervical cancer screening technology, we aimed to evaluate the cost-effectiveness of the combined strategies of cervical cancer screening programmes and universal vaccination of girls (aged 9-14 years) with Cecolin in China. METHODS: We did a cost-effectiveness analysis in China, in which we developed a Markov model of cervical cancer to evaluate the incremental cost-effectiveness ratios of 61 intervention strategies, including a combination of various screening methods at different frequencies with and without vaccination, and also vaccination alone, from a health-care system perspective. We did univariate and probabilistic sensitivity analyses to assess the robustness of the model's findings. FINDINGS: Compared with no intervention, various combined screening and vaccination strategies would incur an additional cost of US$6 157 000-22 146 000 and result in 691-970 quality-adjusted life-years (QALYs) gained in a designated cohort of 100 000 girls aged 9-14 years over a lifetime. With a willingness-to-pay threshold of three times the Chinese per-capita gross domestic product (GDP), careHPV screening (a rapid HPV test) once every 5 years with vaccination would be the most cost-effective strategy with an incremental cost-effectiveness ratio of $21 799 per QALY compared with the lower-cost non-dominated strategy on the cost-effectiveness frontier, and the probability of it being cost-effective (44%) outperformed other strategies. Strategies that combined screening and vaccination would be more cost-effective than screening alone strategies when the vaccination cost was less than $50 for two doses, even with a lower willingness-to-pay of one times the per-capita GDP. INTERPRETATION: careHPV screening once every 5 years with vaccination is the most cost-effective strategy for cervical cancer prevention in China. A reduction in the domestic HPV vaccine price is necessary to ascertain a good economic return for the future vaccination programme. The findings provide important evidence that informs health policies for cervical cancer prevention in China. FUNDING: National Natural Science Foundation of China.
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ItemEarly characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict the subsequent epidemic scope(ELSEVIER SCI LTD, 2020-08)OBJECTIVES: The mostly-resolved first wave of the COVID-19 epidemic in China provided a unique opportunity to investigate how the initial characteristics of the COVID-19 outbreak predict its subsequent magnitude. METHODS: We collected publicly available COVID-19 epidemiological data from 436 Chinese cities from 16th January-15th March 2020. Based on 45 cities that reported >100 confirmed cases, we examined the correlation between early-stage epidemic characteristics and subsequent epidemic magnitude. RESULTS: We identified a transition point from a slow- to a fast-growing phase for COVID-19 at 5.5 (95% CI, 4.6-6.4) days after the first report, and 30 confirmed cases marked a critical threshold for this transition. The average time for the number of confirmed cases to increase from 30 to 100 (time from 30-to-100) was 6.6 (5.3-7.9) days, and the average case-fatality rate in the first 100 confirmed cases (CFR-100) was 0.8% (0.2-1.4%). The subsequent epidemic size per million population was significantly associated with both of these indicators. We predicted a ranking of epidemic size in the cities based on these two indicators and found it highly correlated with the actual classification of epidemic size. CONCLUSIONS: Early epidemic characteristics are important indicators for the size of the entire epidemic.
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ItemClinical presentation of asymptomatic and symptomatic women who tested positive for genital gonorrhoea at a sexual health service in Melbourne, Australia(CAMBRIDGE UNIV PRESS, 2020)Gonorrhoea cases in women have been rising in Australia in the 2010s but the cause of the increase is not well understood. This cross-sectional study aimed to describe the characteristics of genital gonorrhoea infection in women attending the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre, Australia. Gonorrhoea cases were diagnosed by nucleic acid amplification test (NAAT) and/or culture. Genitourinary specimens were obtained in 12 869 clinic visits in women aged 16 years or above between August 2017 and August 2018. Genital gonorrhoea was detected in 142 (1.1%) of the visits. Almost half of the cases were asymptomatic, 47.9% [95% confidence interval (CI) 39.8-56.1%]; yellow, green or pus-like vaginal discharge was present in 11.3% (95% CI 7.0-17.6%) and other genital symptoms in 40.8% (95% CI 33.1-49.1%) of the cases. The mean time between last sexual contact and onset of symptoms was 7.3 days and between the onset of symptoms to presentation to the clinic was 12.1 days. Half of the cases of genital gonorrhoea among women are asymptomatic and these cases would have been missed by testing of only symptomatic women. Further epidemiological and behavioural research is required to understand the temporal changes in sexual practices among women in Australia.
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ItemClinical presentation of asymptomatic and symptomatic heterosexual men who tested positive for urethral gonorrhoea at a sexual health clinic in Melbourne, Australia(BMC, 2020-07-08)BACKGROUND: Asymptomatic screening for gonorrhoea in heterosexual men is currently not recommended in many countries including Australia, given the prevalence is relatively low in the heterosexual population. We aimed to determine the proportion of urethral gonorrhoea cases among heterosexual men attending a sexual health clinic that was asymptomatic and symptomatic, the time since last sexual contact to the onset of symptoms and the time to clinic presentation following the onset of symptoms. METHODS: This was a cross-sectional study that included heterosexual men aged 16 years or above attending the Melbourne Sexual Health Centre (MSHC) in Australia between August 2017 and August 2018. Gonorrhoea cases were diagnosed by nucleic acid amplification testing (NAAT) and/or culture. Descriptive analyses were conducted for all gonorrhoea cases including demographic characteristics, recent sexual practices, reported urethral symptoms and duration, sexual contact with a person diagnosed with gonorrhoea, investigations performed and laboratory results. RESULTS: There were 116 confirmed cases of urethral gonorrhoea in heterosexual men over the study period of which 6.0% (95% CI: 2.7-12.1%) were asymptomatic. Typical urethral discharge was present in 80.2% (95% CI: 71.9-86.5%) of men. The mean time between last sexual contact and the onset of symptoms was 7.0 days, and between the onset of symptoms to presentation to the clinic was 5.6 days. CONCLUSIONS: A small proportion of heterosexual men with urethral gonorrhoea do not have any symptoms. Heterosexual men with urethral symptoms usually seek for healthcare within a week, prompting rapid healthcare-seeking behaviour.
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ItemClinical characteristics and prognosis of anal squamous cell carcinoma: a retrospective audit of 144 patients from 11 cancer hospitals in southern China(BMC, 2020-07-21)BACKGROUND: The incidence of anal squamous cell carcinoma (SCC) has been steadily growing globally in the past decade. Clinical data on anal SCC from China are rare. We conducted this study to describe the clinical and epidemiological characteristics of anal SCC in China and explore prognostic factors of outcomes among patients with anal SCC. METHODS: We audited demographic characteristics, relevant symptoms, risk factors, treatment modalities and outcomes for patients diagnosed with anal SCC at 11 medical institutions in China between January 2007 and July 2018. RESULTS: A total of 144 patients (109 females) were diagnosed with SCC during this period. Median age at initial diagnosis was 52.0 (interquartile range: 46.0-61.8) years. The most common symptoms were bleeding (n = 93, 64.6%), noticing a lump (n = 49, 34.0%), and pain (n = 47, 32.6%). The proportion of patients at the American Joint Committee on Cancer (AJCC) stages I-IV were 10 (6.9%), 22 (15.3%), 61 (42.4%) and 8 (5.6%), respectively, and AJCC stages in 43 (29.9%) patients were unknown. Thirty-six patients (25.0%) underwent abdominoperineal resection initially. Univariable analysis showed that T stage predicted recurrence-free survival (RFS) (Hazard ratio [HR] = 3.03, 95% Confidence interval [CI]: 1.10-8.37, p = 0.032), and age group (HR = 2.90, 95% CI: 1.12-7.49, p = 0.028), AJCC stage (HR = 4.56, 95% CI: 1.02-20.35, p = 0.046), and N stage (HR = 3.05, 95% CI: 1.07-8.74, p = 0.038) predicted overall survival (OS). CONCLUSIONS: T stage was identified as prognostic factor of RFS, and age, AJCC stage, and N stage were identified as prognostic factors of OS. Improving symptom awareness and earlier presentation among patients potentially at risk for anal SCC should be encouraged. Familiarity with the standard treatment among health care providers in China should be further improved.