School of Historical and Philosophical Studies - Theses
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ItemEngage or balance? Competing visions for China in the George H. W. Bush administration’s national security strategy( 2023)This thesis examines the national security dimension of US China policy during the presidency of George H. W. Bush (1989-1993). In light of subsequent bilateral tensions, Bush’s controversial efforts to seek stable relations with Beijing after the 1989 Tiananmen Square Massacre and the end of the Cold War warrant revisiting. Bush believed that Sino-American stability was necessary to resolve security issues such as non-proliferation. This served as the rationale for ‘engagement’ with Beijing, a policy continued by his successors. This thesis argues, however that segments of the intelligence and defence communities deviated from the president’s view after the 1991 Persian Gulf War. In response to the display of US military supremacy over Iraqi forces in Kuwait, China quickly accelerated the modernisation of its own armed forces. With Russian support, it increased its power projection capabilities to a degree that shifted the regional balance of power to Taiwan’s detriment. With a surprising degree of foresight, intelligence analysts were already reporting on the potential implications of this new dynamic in early 1991. Possibly for electoral reasons, Bush acted on the advice of the Defence Department and reluctantly redressed the balance by rearming Taiwan’s air force in late 1992. By closely examining this period, this thesis sheds light on the origins of a persistent division in US national security strategy between those who believed in engaging Beijing and those who perceived Chinese military modernisation as a threat to regional stability.