Doherty Institute - Research Publications

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Author: McCaw, James × Author: McVernon, Jodie × End date: 2011 × Start date: 2011 ×

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    Diagnosis and Antiviral Intervention Strategies for Mitigating an Influenza Epidemic
    Moss, R ; McCaw, JM ; McVernon, J ; Davis, CT (PUBLIC LIBRARY SCIENCE, 2011-02-04)
    BACKGROUND: Many countries have amassed antiviral stockpiles for pandemic preparedness. Despite extensive trial data and modelling studies, it remains unclear how to make optimal use of antiviral stockpiles within the constraints of healthcare infrastructure. Modelling studies informed recommendations for liberal antiviral distribution in the pandemic phase, primarily to prevent infection, but failed to account for logistical constraints clearly evident during the 2009 H1N1 outbreaks. Here we identify optimal delivery strategies for antiviral interventions accounting for logistical constraints, and so determine how to improve a strategy's impact. METHODS AND FINDINGS: We extend an existing SEIR model to incorporate finite diagnostic and antiviral distribution capacities. We evaluate the impact of using different diagnostic strategies to decide to whom antivirals are delivered. We then determine what additional capacity is required to achieve optimal impact. We identify the importance of sensitive and specific case ascertainment in the early phase of a pandemic response, when the proportion of false-positive presentations may be high. Once a substantial percentage of ILI presentations are caused by the pandemic strain, identification of cases for treatment on syndromic grounds alone results in a greater potential impact than a laboratory-dependent strategy. Our findings reinforce the need for a decentralised system capable of providing timely prophylaxis. CONCLUSIONS: We address specific real-world issues that must be considered in order to improve pandemic preparedness policy in a practical and methodologically sound way. Provision of antivirals on the scale proposed for an effective response is infeasible using traditional public health outbreak management and contact tracing approaches. The results indicate to change the transmission dynamics of an influenza epidemic with an antiviral intervention, a decentralised system is required for contact identification and prophylaxis delivery, utilising a range of existing services and infrastructure in a "whole of society" response.
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    Understanding mortality in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic in England and Wales
    Pearce, DC ; Pallaghy, PK ; McCaw, JM ; McVernon, J ; Mathews, JD (WILEY-BLACKWELL, 2011-03)
    BACKGROUND: The causes of recurrent waves in the 1918-1919 influenza pandemic are not fully understood. OBJECTIVES: To identify the risk factors for influenza onset, spread and mortality in waves 1, 2 and 3 (summer, autumn and winter) in England and Wales in 1918-1919. METHODS: Influenza mortality rates for 333 population units and putative risk factors were analysed by correlation and by regressions weighted by population size and adjusted for spatial trends. RESULTS: For waves 1 and 3, influenza mortality was higher in younger, northerly and socially disadvantaged populations experiencing higher all-cause mortality in 1911-1914. Influenza mortality was greatest in wave 2, but less dependent on underlying population characteristics. Wave duration was shorter in areas with higher influenza mortality, typically associated with increasing population density. Regression analyses confirmed the importance of geographical factors and pre-pandemic mortality for all three waves. Age effects were complex, with the suggestion that younger populations with greater mortality in wave 1 had lesser mortality in wave 2. CONCLUSIONS: Our findings suggest that socially disadvantaged populations were more vulnerable, that older populations were partially protected by prior immunity in wave 1 and that exposure of (younger) populations in one wave could protect against mortality in the subsequent wave. An increase in viral virulence could explain the greater mortality in wave 2. Further modelling of causal processes will help to explain, in considerable detail, how social and geographical factors, season, pre-existing and acquired immunity and virulence affected viral transmission and pandemic mortality in 1918-1919.