Architecture, Building and Planning - Theses
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ItemThe energy business system: transformation, social innovation & disruptive smart grid business models( 2018)A radical shift from a high- to a low-carbon energy system is not occurring at the speed required to address climate change. One reason for this, is that conventional energy firms are locked into producing shareholder profit with fossil-intensive business models that are still operable in current markets. This PhD thesis employs systems thinking to analyse lock-in of the energy business system (EBS) and then adopts design thinking to propose disruptive innovations that can accelerate low-carbon transitions. Dynamics of the EBS transition are evaluated in an interdisciplinary way and across systems scales, from the Earth system to the distribution edge of the electrical power system. Conceptual frameworks that combine complex system and transition theory are developed to evaluate the global EBS in an Earth system context and to analyse the role of business models in the decarbonisation of the electricity sector. Previous research suggests that strategies for escaping EBS lock-in include incorporation of environmental liability to shareholders, carbon taxation and other economic measurements to alter market conditions. The systems analysis presented here suggests that to ensure environmental resilience the EBS’s fundamental purpose and governance need revision. I theorise that more social innovation in business models could influence business trajectory in the energy sector. Instead of maximising shareholder profit, social innovations can shift business purpose towards long-term social and environmental value-creation using emerging market-based tools. A business model analysis of the electricity sector is used to identify opportunities for EBS disruption from social innovations. I find that, in general, social and environmentally driven low-carbon projects often struggle to achieve scale and commercial advantage. However, recent business model innovations in smart grids can provide such projects with the required competitive position. Specifically, Virtual Power Plant technology has emerged as an energy management system that allows aggregation and coordination of multiple distributed energy resources. Aggregation can include diverse resources such as photovoltaics, batteries, electric vehicles and windfarms. Coordination can achieve improved physical and market performance as a functional unit within the electricity market. Using theoretical model development and illustrative examples, I highlight how emerging opportunities such as peer-to-peer Internet platforms and blockchain technology, also have significant potential as tools to enable disruptive business models, through decentralised value creation using assets from online participants. Building from the systems thinking analysis of the EBS lock-in, the second part of this PhD thesis uses design thinking to propose and further develop a new business model termed a ‘social virtual energy network’ (SVEN). As an urban social electricity-trading network, a SVEN is designed to help accelerate the decarbonisation of the power system and influence paradigm shifts in EBS governance. Two iterations in the design of the SVEN concept are presented and critiqued based on insights derived from the first part of the thesis. The first iteration focuses on the role of virtual power plants and tariff design for business feasibility, and the second on blockchain and user interfaces for mainstream market adoption. Through systems analysis, this study argues that an adequate response to climate change requires a paradigm shift in the EBS. Using a systems design approach, the thesis provides a vision for the architecture of a democratic open energy economy where users and their distributed energy resources have an active role in the value chain of the EBS. The findings and proposals of this work are relevant to debates about the most effective ways of accelerating targeted innovations to achieve a low-carbon energy system.
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ItemCultural adaptation to climate change and the 1997-2010 drought in the suburban landscape of Melbourne, Australia( 2013)The period of drought from 1997 to 2010 in Melbourne, Australia saw significantly below average inflows into Melbourne’s reservoirs due to persistent high temperatures and low rainfall, conditions that climate change modelling suggest will occur more frequently in the future. In response to a dwindling water supply, water restrictions were enacted by the Victorian government to reduce water demand at the same time as infrastructure projects were commissioned to increase the water supply. These water restrictions limited the use of water outdoors, and had negative impacts on the suburban vegetation. A range of technical and behavioural adaptations could be made to mitigate these negative impacts by reducing the need for the use of potable mains water in the landscape, and this research explored the hypothesis that, over the course of the drought, changing attitudes towards climate change and water use in the suburban landscape resulted in behavioural adaptations by suburban dwellers in Melbourne that led to observable changes to the suburban landscape of Melbourne. Three research methods were used to investigate relationships between changes in Melbourne’s suburban landscapes and people’s attitudes towards water conservation in the context of drought and climate change, namely: (1) a content analysis of newspaper articles related to water restrictions in Melbourne to look at the ways in which the topics of drought and climate change had been addressed within the public discourse; (2) an observation of the suburban landscape of Melbourne using Google Street View and aerial photographs to identify the observable adaptations that have taken place in a sample of 530 front yards; and, (3) a questionnaire survey of households in Melbourne to assess their attitudes towards their own private landscapes, water conservation and restrictions, drought, and climate change and its impacts. It was found that, both in the newspapers and from analysis of the questionnaire data, people generally agreed with the need to conserve water, especially during times of drought. Belief in climate change, and the need for people to personally take action to adapt to it, was also generally high. Observable drought adaptations in Melbourne front yards were rare, but in the questionnaire many respondents indicated that they had taken steps to conserve water, and some of the sampled front yards had changed between 2004 and 2008 to better adapt to drought conditions. However, the content analysis found that two of the four newspapers studied perpetuated expressions of unscientific climate change scepticism and uncertainty, consistent with the politicisation of the climate change issue. The questionnaire, which employed visual stimuli of front yard scenarios, found that water use requirements did not correlate with overall desirability, which was most strongly correlated with rated visual attractiveness. Despite the general agreement by respondents with regard to the need to conserve water, and their stated willingness to take concrete steps to do so, obstacles remain for successful drought and climate change adaptation, both in the responses of the public to change and the physical transformations of the landscape.