School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Research Publications
Permanent URI for this collection
Search Results
1 - 5 of 5
-
ItemStructure and fragmentation of growling grass frog metapopulations(SPRINGER, 2013-04)Metapopulations occur in fragmented landscapes, and consist of demographically-independent populations connected by dispersal. Nevertheless, anthropogenic habitat fragmentation may be fatal to metapopulations, as it disrupts dispersal and gene flow, and undermines the balance between population extinction and colonization. Understanding the extent to which particular land-use practices disrupt dispersal and gene flow is therefore crucial for conserving metapopulations. We examined the structure and fragmentation of metapopulations of the endangered growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) in an urbanizing landscape in southern Australia. Population clustering analyses revealed three distinct genetic units, corresponding to the three wetland clusters sampled. Isolation-by-distance was apparent between populations, and genetic distance was significantly correlated with the presence of urban barriers between populations. Our study provides evidence that urbanization fragments metapopulations of L. raniformis. Managers of L. raniformis in urbanizing landscapes should seek to mitigate effects of urbanization on dispersal and gene flow.
-
ItemA Bayesian model of metapopulation viability, with application to an endangered amphibian(WILEY, 2013-06-01)Abstract Aim Population viability analysis (PVA) is used to quantify the risks faced by species under alternative management regimes. BayesianPVAs allow uncertainty in the parameters of the underlying population model to be easily propagated through to the predictions. We developed a Bayesian stochastic patch occupancy model (SPOM) and used this model to assess the viability of a metapopulation of the growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) under different urbanization scenarios. Location Melbourne, Victoria, Australia. Methods We fitted a Bayesian model that accounted for imperfect detection to a multiseason occupancy dataset forL. raniformiscollected across northern Melbourne. The probability of extinction was modelled as a function of effective wetland area, aquatic vegetation cover and connectivity, using logistic regression. The probability of colonization was modelled as a function of connectivity alone. We then simulated the dynamics of a metapopulation ofL. raniformissubject to differing levels of urbanization and compensatory wetland creation. Uncertainty was propagated by conducting simulations for 5000 estimates of the parameters of the models for extinction and colonization. Results There was considerable uncertainty in both the probability of quasi‐extinction and the minimum number of occupied wetlands under most urbanization scenarios. Uncertainty around the change in quasi‐extinction risk and minimum metapopulation size increased with increasing habitat loss. For our focal metapopulation, the analysis revealed that significant investment in new wetlands may be required to offset the impacts of urbanization. Main conclusions Bayesian approaches toPVAallow parametric uncertainty to be propagated and considered in management decisions. They also provide means of identifying parameters that represent critical uncertainties, and, through the use of informative priors, can easily assimilate new data to reduce parametric uncertainty. These advantages, and the ready availability of software to run Bayesian analyses, will ensure that Bayesian approaches are used increasingly forPVAs.
-
ItemGenetic structure and diversity of the endangered growling grass frog in a rapidly urbanizing region(ROYAL SOC, 2015-08)Two pervasive and fundamental impacts of urbanization are the loss and fragmentation of natural habitats. From a genetic perspective, these impacts manifest as reduced genetic diversity and ultimately reduced genetic viability. The growling grass frog (Litoria raniformis) is listed as vulnerable to extinction in Australia, and endangered in the state of Victoria. Remaining populations of this species in and around the city of Melbourne are threatened by habitat loss, degradation and fragmentation due to urban expansion. We used mitochondrial DNA (mtDNA) and microsatellites to study the genetic structure and diversity of L. raniformis across Melbourne's urban fringe, and also screened four nuclear gene regions (POMC, RAG-1, Rhod and CRYBA1). The mtDNA and nuclear DNA sequences revealed low levels of genetic diversity throughout remnant populations of L. raniformis. However, one of the four regions studied, Cardinia, exhibited relatively high genetic diversity and several unique haplotypes, suggesting this region should be recognized as a separate Management Unit. We discuss the implications of these results for the conservation of L. raniformis in urbanizing landscapes, particularly the potential risks and benefits of translocation, which remains a contentious management approach for this species.
-
ItemInterspecific variation in the phenology of advertisement calling in a temperate Australian frog community(WILEY, 2015-09)Spatial and temporal partitioning of resources underlies the coexistence of species with similar niches. In communities of frogs and toads, the phenology of advertisement calling provides insights into temporal partitioning of reproductive effort and its implications for community dynamics. This study assessed the phenology of advertisement calling in an anuran community from Melbourne, in southern Australia. We collated data from 1432 surveys of 253 sites and used logistic regression to quantify seasonality in the nightly probability of calling and the influence of meteorological variables on this probability for six species of frogs. We found limited overlap in the predicted seasonal peaks of calling among these species. Those shown to have overlapping calling peaks are unlikely to be in direct competition, due to differences in larval ecology (Crinia signifera and Litoria ewingii) or differences in calling behavior and acoustics (Limnodynastes dumerilii and Litoria raniformis). In contrast, closely related and ecologically similar species (Crinia signfera and Crinia parinsignifera;Litoria ewingii and Litoria verreauxii) appear to have staggered seasonal peaks of calling. In combination with interspecific variation in the meteorological correlates of calling, these results may be indicative of temporal partitioning of reproductive activity to facilitate coexistence, as has been reported for tropical and temperate anurans from other parts of the globe.
-
ItemDetecting Extinction Risk from Climate Change by IUCN Red List Criteria(WILEY, 2014-06)Anthropogenic climate change is a key threat to global biodiversity. To inform strategic actions aimed at conserving biodiversity as climate changes, conservation planners need early warning of the risks faced by different species. The IUCN Red List criteria for threatened species are widely acknowledged as useful risk assessment tools for informing conservation under constraints imposed by limited data. However, doubts have been expressed about the ability of the criteria to detect risks imposed by potentially slow-acting threats such as climate change, particularly because criteria addressing rates of population decline are assessed over time scales as short as 10 years. We used spatially explicit stochastic population models and dynamic species distribution models projected to future climates to determine how long before extinction a species would become eligible for listing as threatened based on the IUCN Red List criteria. We focused on a short-lived frog species (Assa darlingtoni) chosen specifically to represent potential weaknesses in the criteria to allow detailed consideration of the analytical issues and to develop an approach for wider application. The criteria were more sensitive to climate change than previously anticipated; lead times between initial listing in a threatened category and predicted extinction varied from 40 to 80 years, depending on data availability. We attributed this sensitivity primarily to the ensemble properties of the criteria that assess contrasting symptoms of extinction risk. Nevertheless, we recommend the robustness of the criteria warrants further investigation across species with contrasting life histories and patterns of decline. The adequacy of these lead times for early warning depends on practicalities of environmental policy and management, bureaucratic or political inertia, and the anticipated species response times to management actions.