School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Research Publications
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ItemCan additional N fertiliser ameliorate the elevated CO2-induced depression in grain and tissue N concentrations of wheat on a high soil N background?(WILEY, 2017-12)Elevated CO₂ stimulates crop yields but leads to lower tissue and grain nitrogen concentrations [N], raising concerns about grain quality in cereals. To test whether N fertiliser application above optimum growth requirements can alleviate the decline in tissue [N], wheat was grown in a Free Air CO₂ Enrichment facility in a low‐rainfall cropping system on high soil N. Crops were grown with and without addition of 50–60 kg N/ha in 12 growing environments created by supplemental irrigation and two sowing dates over 3 years. Elevated CO₂ increased yield and biomass (on average by 25%) and decreased biomass [N] (3%–9%) and grain [N] (5%). Nitrogen uptake was greater (20%) in crops grown under elevated CO₂. Additional N supply had no effect on yield and biomass, confirming high soil N. Small increases in [N] with N addition were insufficient to offset declines in grain [N] under elevated CO₂. Instead, N application increased the [N] in straw and decreased N harvest index. The results suggest that conventional addition of N does not mitigate grain [N] depression under elevated CO₂, and lend support to hypotheses that link decreases in crop [N] with biochemical limitations rather than N supply.
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ItemClimate change impact and adaptation for wheat protein(WILEY, 2019-01)Wheat grain protein concentration is an important determinant of wheat quality for human nutrition that is often overlooked in efforts to improve crop production. We tested and applied a 32-multi-model ensemble to simulate global wheat yield and quality in a changing climate. Potential benefits of elevated atmospheric CO2 concentration by 2050 on global wheat grain and protein yield are likely to be negated by impacts from rising temperature and changes in rainfall, but with considerable disparities between regions. Grain and protein yields are expected to be lower and more variable in most low-rainfall regions, with nitrogen availability limiting growth stimulus from elevated CO2 . Introducing genotypes adapted to warmer temperatures (and also considering changes in CO2 and rainfall) could boost global wheat yield by 7% and protein yield by 2%, but grain protein concentration would be reduced by -1.1 percentage points, representing a relative change of -8.6%. Climate change adaptations that benefit grain yield are not always positive for grain quality, putting additional pressure on global wheat production.
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ItemMultimodel ensembles improve predictions of crop-environment-management interactions(WILEY, 2018-11)A recent innovation in assessment of climate change impact on agricultural production has been to use crop multimodel ensembles (MMEs). These studies usually find large variability between individual models but that the ensemble mean (e-mean) and median (e-median) often seem to predict quite well. However, few studies have specifically been concerned with the predictive quality of those ensemble predictors. We ask what is the predictive quality of e-mean and e-median, and how does that depend on the ensemble characteristics. Our empirical results are based on five MME studies applied to wheat, using different data sets but the same 25 crop models. We show that the ensemble predictors have quite high skill and are better than most and sometimes all individual models for most groups of environments and most response variables. Mean squared error of e-mean decreases monotonically with the size of the ensemble if models are added at random, but has a minimum at usually 2-6 models if best-fit models are added first. Our theoretical results describe the ensemble using four parameters: average bias, model effect variance, environment effect variance, and interaction variance. We show analytically that mean squared error of prediction (MSEP) of e-mean will always be smaller than MSEP averaged over models and will be less than MSEP of the best model if squared bias is less than the interaction variance. If models are added to the ensemble at random, MSEP of e-mean will decrease as the inverse of ensemble size, with a minimum equal to squared bias plus interaction variance. This minimum value is not necessarily small, and so it is important to evaluate the predictive quality of e-mean for each target population of environments. These results provide new information on the advantages of ensemble predictors, but also show their limitations.
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ItemWater availability moderates N2 fixation benefit from elevated [CO2]: A 2-year free-air CO2 enrichment study on lentil (Lens culinaris MEDIK.) in a water limited agroecosystem(WILEY, 2018-10)Increased biomass and yield of plants grown under elevated [CO2 ] often corresponds to decreased grain N concentration ([N]), diminishing nutritional quality of crops. Legumes through their symbiotic N2 fixation may be better able to maintain biomass [N] and grain [N] under elevated [CO2 ], provided N2 fixation is stimulated by elevated [CO2 ] in line with growth and yield. In Mediterranean-type agroecosystems, N2 fixation may be impaired by drought, and it is unclear whether elevated [CO2 ] stimulation of N2 fixation can overcome this impact in dry years. To address this question, we grew lentil under two [CO2 ] (ambient ~400 ppm and elevated ~550 ppm) levels in a free-air CO2 enrichment facility over two growing seasons sharply contrasting in rainfall. Elevated [CO2 ] stimulated N2 fixation through greater nodule number (+27%), mass (+18%), and specific fixation activity (+17%), and this stimulation was greater in the high than in the low rainfall/dry season. Elevated [CO2 ] depressed grain [N] (-4%) in the dry season. In contrast, grain [N] increased (+3%) in the high rainfall season under elevated [CO2 ], as a consequence of greater post-flowering N2 fixation. Our results suggest that the benefit for N2 fixation from elevated [CO2 ] is high as long as there is enough soil water to continue N2 fixation during grain filling.
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ItemThe relationship between transpiration and nutrient uptake in wheat changes under elevated atmospheric CO2(WILEY, 2018-08)The impact of elevated [CO2 ] (e[CO2 ]) on crops often includes a decrease in their nutrient concentrations where reduced transpiration-driven mass flow of nutrients has been suggested to play a role. We used two independent approaches, a free-air CO2 enrichment (FACE) experiment in the South Eastern wheat belt of Australia and a simulation study employing the agricultural production systems simulator (APSIM), to show that transpiration (mm) and nutrient uptake (g m-2 ) of nitrogen (N), potassium (K), sulfur (S), calcium (Ca), magnesium (Mg) and manganese (Mn) in wheat are correlated under e[CO2 ], but that nutrient uptake per unit water transpired is higher under e[CO2 ] than under ambient [CO2 ] (a[CO2 ]). This result suggests that transpiration-driven mass flow of nutrients contributes to decreases in nutrient concentrations under e[CO2 ], but cannot solely explain the overall decline.
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ItemIntercropping-Evaluating the Advantages to Broadacre Systems(MDPI, 2021-05)Intercropping is considered by its advocates to be a sustainable, environmentally sound, and economically advantageous cropping system. Intercropping systems are complex, with non-uniform competition between the component species within the cropping cycle, typically leading to unequal relative yields making evaluation difficult. This paper is a review of the main existing metrics used in the scientific literature to assess intercropping systems. Their strengths and limitations are discussed. Robust metrics for characterising intercropping systems are proposed. A major limitation is that current metrics assume the same management level between intercropping and monocropping systems and do not consider differences in costs of production. Another drawback is that they assume the component crops in the mixture are of equal value. Moreover, in employing metrics, many studies have considered direct and private costs and benefits only, ignoring indirect and social costs and benefits of intercropping systems per se. Furthermore, production risk and growers’ risk preferences were often overlooked. In evaluating intercropping advantage using data from field trials, four metrics are recommended that collectively take into account all important differences in private costs and benefits between intercropping and monocropping systems, specifically the Land Equivalent Ratio, Yield Ratio, Value Ratio and Net Gross Margin.
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ItemDoes Elevated [CO2] Only Increase Root Growth in the Topsoil? A FACE Study with Lentil in a Semi-Arid Environment(MDPI, 2021-04)Atmospheric carbon dioxide concentrations [CO2] are increasing steadily. Some reports have shown that root growth in grain crops is mostly stimulated in the topsoil rather than evenly throughout the soil profile by e[CO2], which is not optimal for crops grown in semi-arid environments with strong reliance on stored water. An experiment was conducted during the 2014 and 2015 growing seasons with two lentil (Lens culinaris) genotypes grown under Free Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) in which root growth was observed non-destructively with mini-rhizotrons approximately every 2-3 weeks. Root growth was not always statistically increased by e[CO2] and not consistently between depths and genotypes. In 2014, root growth in the top 15 cm of the soil profile (topsoil) was indeed increased by e[CO2], but increases at lower depths (30-45 cm) later in the season were greater than in the topsoil. In 2015, e[CO2] only increased root length in the topsoil for one genotype, potentially reflecting the lack of plant available soil water between 30-60 cm until recharged by irrigation during grain filling. Our limited data to compare responses to e[CO2] showed that root length increases in the topsoil were correlated with a lower yield response to e[CO2]. The increase in yield response was rather correlated with increases in root growth below 30 cm depth.
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ItemA reduced-tillering trait shows small but important yield gains in dryland wheat production(WILEY, 2020-07)Reducing the number of tillers per plant using a tiller inhibition (tin) gene has been considered as an important trait for wheat production in dryland environments. We used a spatial analysis approach with a daily time-step coupled radiation and transpiration efficiency model to simulate the impact of the reduced-tillering trait on wheat yield under different climate change scenarios across Australia's arable land. Our results show a small but consistent yield advantage of the reduced-tillering trait in the most water-limited environments both under current and likely future conditions. Our climate scenarios show that whilst elevated [CO2 ] (e[CO2 ]) alone might limit the area where the reduced-tillering trait is advantageous, the most likely climate scenario of e[CO2 ] combined with increased temperature and reduced rainfall consistently increased the area where restricted tillering has an advantage. Whilst long-term average yield advantages were small (ranged from 31 to 51 kg ha-1 year-1 ), across large dryland areas the value is large (potential cost-benefits ranged from Australian dollar 23 to 60 MIL/year). It seems therefore worthwhile to further explore this reduced-tillering trait in relation to a range of different environments and climates, because its benefits are likely to grow in future dry environments where wheat is grown around the world.
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ItemResponse of wheat growth, grain yield and water use to elevated CO2 under a Free-Air CO2 Enrichment (FACE) experiment and modelling in a semi-arid environment.(Wiley, 2015-07)The response of wheat crops to elevated CO2 (eCO2 ) was measured and modelled with the Australian Grains Free-Air CO2 Enrichment experiment, located at Horsham, Australia. Treatments included CO2 by water, N and temperature. The location represents a semi-arid environment with a seasonal VPD of around 0.5 kPa. Over 3 years, the observed mean biomass at anthesis and grain yield ranged from 4200 to 10 200 kg ha-1 and 1600 to 3900 kg ha-1 , respectively, over various sowing times and irrigation regimes. The mean observed response to daytime eCO2 (from 365 to 550 μmol mol-1 CO2 ) was relatively consistent for biomass at stem elongation and at anthesis and LAI at anthesis and grain yield with 21%, 23%, 21% and 26%, respectively. Seasonal water use was decreased from 320 to 301 mm (P = 0.10) by eCO2 , increasing water use efficiency for biomass and yield, 36% and 31%, respectively. The performance of six models (APSIM-Wheat, APSIM-Nwheat, CAT-Wheat, CROPSYST, OLEARY-CONNOR and SALUS) in simulating crop responses to eCO2 was similar and within or close to the experimental error for accumulated biomass, yield and water use response, despite some variations in early growth and LAI. The primary mechanism of biomass accumulation via radiation use efficiency (RUE) or transpiration efficiency (TE) was not critical to define the overall response to eCO2 . However, under irrigation, the effect of late sowing on response to eCO2 to biomass accumulation at DC65 was substantial in the observed data (~40%), but the simulated response was smaller, ranging from 17% to 28%. Simulated response from all six models under no water or nitrogen stress showed similar response to eCO2 under irrigation, but the differences compared to the dryland treatment were small. Further experimental work on the interactive effects of eCO2 , water and temperature is required to resolve these model discrepancies.
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ItemAustralian wheat production expected to decrease by the late 21st century.(Wiley, 2018-06)Climate change threatens global wheat production and food security, including the wheat industry in Australia. Many studies have examined the impacts of changes in local climate on wheat yield per hectare, but there has been no assessment of changes in land area available for production due to changing climate. It is also unclear how total wheat production would change under future climate when autonomous adaptation options are adopted. We applied species distribution models to investigate future changes in areas climatically suitable for growing wheat in Australia. A crop model was used to assess wheat yield per hectare in these areas. Our results show that there is an overall tendency for a decrease in the areas suitable for growing wheat and a decline in the yield of the northeast Australian wheat belt. This results in reduced national wheat production although future climate change may benefit South Australia and Victoria. These projected outcomes infer that similar wheat-growing regions of the globe might also experience decreases in wheat production. Some cropping adaptation measures increase wheat yield per hectare and provide significant mitigation of the negative effects of climate change on national wheat production by 2041-2060. However, any positive effects will be insufficient to prevent a likely decline in production under a high CO2 emission scenario by 2081-2100 due to increasing losses in suitable wheat-growing areas. Therefore, additional adaptation strategies along with investment in wheat production are needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security. This scenario analysis provides a foundation towards understanding changes in Australia's wheat cropping systems, which will assist in developing adaptation strategies to mitigate climate change impacts on global wheat production.