School of Agriculture, Food and Ecosystem Sciences - Research Publications
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ItemThe influence of spatial patterns in foraging habitat on the abundance and home range size of a vulnerable arboreal marsupial in southeast Australia(WILEY, 2021-12)Abstract Wildlife can persist in a range of landscape configurations, but population densities can vary due to resource availability. Resources and environmental conditions shaping habitat suitability may be spatially dispersed or clumped, which can drive habitat availability. We explored how spatial configuration and aggregation of favorable feeding resources and climatic conditions affect populations of the greater glider (Petauroides volans), an arboreal marsupial in southeast Australia, vulnerable to climate change and disturbances. We hypothesized home‐range functionality from literature and field observations and used a generalized spatial framework based on neutral landscape models to test how spatial aggregation influences home‐range sizes and population structure. At the landscape scale, any decrease in climatic suitability also decreased potential population density, independent of the initial spatial configuration of the feeding landscape. At the stand scale however, the spatial configuration of feeding habitat drove population density. Dispersed resources required increased home‐range sizes for individual greater gliders to obtain feeding resources and resulted in smaller populations. Clumped resources supported larger populations, even when only small fractions of the stand contained feeding habitat. Disturbances to these resources could either retain populations or lead to extinction, depending on spatial aggregation and disturbance intensity. Increasingly severe dispersed disturbances caused potential home ranges to disappear more rapidly and remaining home ranges to become larger and contain less feeding habitat. The ability of greater gliders to establish populations and persist under disturbance was therefore highly dependent on the spatial aggregation of habitat resources and the type and severity of disturbance. Changes in climate act at a different scale and may override favorable habitat conditions at the stand level. Our results have implications for the conservation and retention of critical feeding habitat for greater gliders and provide insights into important factors to ensure population persistence under climate change and forest management.
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ItemPapua at the Crossroads: A Plea for Systematic Conservation Planning in One of the Largest Remaining Areas of Tropical Rainforest(FRONTIERS MEDIA SA, 2022-02-11)Land-use change has progressed rapidly throughout the Indonesian archipelago and is now intruding into western New Guinea (Tanah Papua), one of the world’s last wilderness areas with extensive tracts of pristine and highly diverse tropical rainforests. Tanah Papua has reached a crossroads between accelerating environmental degradation and sustainable development policies entailing landscape-scale conservation targets, pledged in the Manokwari Declaration. We assessed the representation of ecoregions and elevational zones within Tanah Papua’s protected area network to identify its shortcomings at broad spatial scales. Lowland ecoregions are less protected than mountainous regions, with half of the western and southern lowlands designated for land-use concessions. Under the direct threat from land-use change, the political motivation in Tanah Papua toward conservation- and culture-centered land management provides a window of opportunity for scientifically guided, proactive conservation planning that integrates sustainable development for the benefit of Indigenous communities.
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ItemPredicting plant species distributions using climate-based model ensembles with corresponding measures of congruence and uncertainty(WILEY, 2022-03-17)Aim The increasing availability of regional and global climate data presents an opportunity to build better ecological models; however, it is not always clear which climate dataset is most appropriate. The aim of this study was to better understand the impacts that alternative climate datasets have on the modelled distribution of plant species, and to develop systematic approaches to enhancing their use in species distribution models (SDMs). Location Victoria, southeast Australia and the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan. Methods We compared the statistical performance of SDMs for 38 plant species in Victoria and 12 plant species in Bhutan with multiple algorithms using globally and regionally calibrated climate datasets. Individual models were compared against one another and as SDM ensembles to explore the potential for alternative predictions to improve statistical performance. We develop two new spatially continuous metrics that support the interpretation of ensemble predictions by characterizing the per-pixel congruence and variability of contributing models. Results There was no clear consensus on which climate dataset performed best across all species in either study region. On average, multi-model ensembles (across the same species with different climate data) increased AUC/TSS/Kappa/OA by up to 0.02/0.03/0.03/0.02 in Victoria and 0.06/0.11/0.11/0.05 in Bhutan. Ensembles performed better than most single models in both Victoria (AUC = 85%; TSS = 68%) and Bhutan (AUC = 86%; TSS = 69%). SDM ensembles using models fitted with alternative algorithms and/or climate datasets each provided a significant improvement over single model runs. Main conclusions Our results demonstrate that SDM ensembles, built using alternative models of the same climate variables, can quantify model congruence and identify regions of the highest uncertainty while mitigating the risk of erroneous predictions. Algorithm selection is known to be a large source of error for SDMs, and our results demonstrate that climate dataset selection can be a comparably significant source of uncertainty.
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ItemMapping canopy nitrogen-scapes to assess foraging habitat for a vulnerable arboreal folivore in mixed-species Eucalyptus forests(WILEY, 2021-12)Herbivore foraging decisions are closely related to plant nutritional quality. For arboreal folivores with specialized diets, such as the vulnerable greater glider (Petauroides volans), the abundance of suitable forage trees can influence habitat suitability and species occurrence. The ability to model and map foliar nitrogen would therefore enhance our understanding of folivore habitat use at finer scales. We tested whether high-resolution multispectral imagery, collected by a lightweight and low-cost commercial unoccupied aerial vehicle (UAV), could be used to predict total and digestible foliar nitrogen (N and digN) at the tree canopy level and forest stand-scale from leaf-scale chemistry measurements across a gradient of mixed-species Eucalyptus forests in southeastern Australia. We surveyed temperate Eucalyptus forests across an elevational and topographic gradient from sea level to high elevation (50-1200 m a.s.l.) for forest structure, leaf chemistry, and greater glider occurrence. Using measures of multispectral leaf reflectance and spectral indices, we estimated N and digN and mapped N and favorable feeding habitat using machine learning algorithms. Our surveys covered 17 Eucalyptus species ranging in foliar N from 0.63% to 1.92% dry matter (DM) and digN from 0.45% to 1.73% DM. Both multispectral leaf reflectance and spectral indices were strong predictors for N and digN in model cross-validation. At the tree level, 79% of variability between observed and predicted measures of nitrogen was explained. A spatial supervised classification model correctly identified 80% of canopy pixels associated with high N concentrations (≥1% DM). We developed a successful method for estimating foliar nitrogen of a range of temperate Eucalyptus species using UAV multispectral imagery at the tree canopy level and stand scale. The ability to spatially quantify feeding habitat using UAV imagery allows remote assessments of greater glider habitat at a scale relevant to support ground surveys, management, and conservation for the vulnerable greater glider across southeastern Australia.
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ItemFrequent wildfires erode tree persistence and alter stand structure and initial composition of a fire-tolerant sub-alpine forest(WILEY, 2017-11)QUESTION: Frequent severe wildfires have the potential to alter the structure and composition of forests in temperate biomes. While temperate forests dominated by resprouting trees are thought to be largely invulnerable to more frequent wildfires, empirical data to support this assumption are lacking. Does frequent fire erode tree persistence by increasing mortality and reducing regeneration, and what are the broader impacts on forest structure and understorey composition? LOCATION: Sub‐alpine open Eucalyptus pauciflora forests, Australian Alps, Victoria, Australia. METHODS: We examined tree persistence and understorey composition of E. pauciflora open forests that were unburned, burned once, twice or three times by high‐severity wildfires between 2003 and 2013. At each of 20 sites (five per fire frequency class) we assessed extent of top‐kill and mortality of eucalypt clumps, spatial configuration of surviving and dead clumps, densities of new and lignotuberous eucalypt seedlings, and shrub and grass cover. RESULTS: At least 2 yr after the last wildfire, proportions of top‐killed E. pauciflora stems were significantly higher, and densities of live basal resprouts significantly lower, at sites burned two or three times compared to once burned or unburned sites. Clump death increased to 50% of individuals at sites burned by three short‐interval wildfires, which led to changes in live tree patchiness, as indicated by nearest‐neighbour indices. Increased tree mortality was not offset by seedling recruitment, which was significantly lower at the twice‐ and thrice‐burned sites relative to single‐burn sites – although seedling recruitment was also influenced by topography and coarse woody debris. In addition to changes in the tree layer, the prominence of understorey shrubs was substantially reduced, and the frequency of grasses markedly increased, after two, and particularly three wildfires. CONCLUSIONS: Our study provides strong empirical evidence of ecologically significant change in E. pauciflora forests after short‐interval severe wildfires, namely, erosion of the persistence niche of resprouting trees, and a shift in understorey dominance from shrubs to grasses. Our findings highlight the need to consider the impacts of compounded perturbation on forests under changing climates, including testing assumptions of long‐term persistence of resprouter‐dominated communities.
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ItemThe role of topography and the north Indian monsoon on mean monthly climate interpolation within the Himalayan Kingdom of Bhutan(WILEY, 2017-08)ABSTRACT Spatial climate datasets currently available for Bhutan are limited by weather station data availability, spatial resolution or interpolation methodology. This article presents new datasets for monthly maximum temperature, minimum temperature, precipitation and vapour pressure climate normals interpolated for the 1986–2015 reference period using trivariate smoothing splines. The inclusion of standardized day time Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) land surface temperature (LST) values as partial spline dependencies reduced cross validated root mean square error (RMSE) for maximum temperature by up to 16.0% and was most effective between March and September. Using both a topographic index of relative elevation and standardized night time MODIS LST values as partial spline dependencies reduced monthly mean minimum temperature RMSE by up to 23.4%. Neither variable was effective for minimum temperature interpolation between June and September. High humidity, extensive cloud cover and heavy precipitation occur during these months, which are likely to suppress the formation of temperature inversions that typically form under clear, calm conditions. These new temperature and precipitation surfaces show distinct differences from the WorldClim and CRU CL 2.0 datasets, which do not use weather stations within Bhutan for calibration. New precipitation surfaces better describe the heavy rainfall experienced in the southern foothills while retaining the effect of orography throughout the central valleys and ranges. The development of vapour pressure surfaces also allow for the calculation of ecologically important variables such as vapour pressure deficit, and may also be useful for solar radiation modelling in the region. The different datasets presented in this article will facilitate ecological and agricultural research in Bhutan and provide high quality surfaces needed for future climate change scenarios.
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ItemNutrient uptake and use efficiency in co-occurring plants along a disturbance and nutrient availability gradient in the boreal forests of the southwest Yukon, Canada(Wiley, 2017-01-01)Aim In boreal forest ecosystems plant productivity is typically constrained by mineral nutrient availability. In some boreal regions changes in nutrient availability have led to limited changes in productivity but large changes in plant composition. To determine the impact that a change in nutrient availability has on the plant communities it is important to understand how species use nutrients. Here we explore how plant species and functional types in a cold‐dry boreal forest community use available nutrients by quantifying their respective nutrient utilization and response efficiency. Location Boreal forests in the southwest corner of the Yukon Territory, Canada. Methods We collected soil samples and total plant biomass from 29 plots from nine locations subjected to fire, harvesting or bark beetle disturbances. Nutrient analysis of all vegetation and soil samples were conducted to determine the concentration of macro‐ and micronutrients from both plant biomass and soils collected. Nutrient pools between stands with different disturbance histories are compared. Nutrient uptake, use and response efficiencies were then calculated and nutrient response profiles were developed for each species/functional type. Results We found few differences between nutrient pools in plots with different disturbance histories. A clear separation of species and functional groups in elemental hyperspace suggesting divergent nutrient use in co‐occurring species was identified. The use efficiency analysis highlighted that the species with the highest uptake efficiency have lowest use efficiency and vice versa. Species showed either a monotonic or constant relationship between nutrient response efficiency and N, P, K, reflecting a lack of relationship between plant productivity and resource availability or a linear increase in productivity with increasing nutrient availability, respectively. Conclusions Our findings indicate that species are maximizing nutrient use along different parts of the resource gradient, which has implications for understanding how species respond to changes in nutrient availability. Our findings also show that nutrient use by some species may be governed more by uptake efficiency than use efficiency, allowing them to respond to increases in resource availability by increasing uptake rather than use.
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ItemImproving temperature interpolation using MODIS LST and local topography: a comparison of methods in south east Australia(WILEY, 2017-06-15)ABSTRACT Available climate data for south east Australia is reliant upon elevational lapse rates, which do not account for mesoscale processes that can affect temperatures, such as cold air drainage. Additional predictor variables are available for generating new climate datasets such as topographic indices and Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer land surface temperature (MODIS LST); however, these have not been thoroughly tested to date. In this study, the relative benefits of including a localized topographic index and standardized MODIS LST values for temperature interpolation were assessed using partial bivariate splines, full and partial trivariate splines, and regression kriging. Trivariate splines provided the best interpolation performance in most cases; however, the partial bivariate spline with a fixed dependence upon elevation performed marginally better than the full trivariate spline for minimum temperature. The local topographic index improved the RMSE of minimum temperature climate normals by 17% in comparison to the best performing elevation only model. A further improvement for minimum temperature performance was achieved by including standardized night time MODIS LST values as covariates (34–39% reduction in RMSE). Standardized day time MODIS LST values improved maximum temperature interpolation performance; however, the improvement was only marginal in comparison to the full trivariate spline (6% reduction in RMSE). Cross validation of daily maximum and minimum temperature anomalies reflected performance trends shown in the climate normal analysis. Results suggest that the use of alternative approaches to interpolating temperature data may have significant implications for the calculation of bioclimatic variables and provide new opportunities to study extremes at high spatial and temporal resolutions using existing weather station networks. Furthermore, improving minimum temperature surfaces by accounting for temperature inversions driven by cold air drainage regimes may improve our ability to incorporate mesoscale temperature variability into a variety of applications, such as deriving temperature dependent climatic variables, species distribution modelling and assessments of fire risk.
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ItemAn ecoclimatic framework for evaluating the resilience of vegetation to water deficit(WILEY, 2016-05)The surge in global efforts to understand the causes and consequences of drought on forest ecosystems has tended to focus on specific impacts such as mortality. We propose an ecoclimatic framework that takes a broader view of the ecological relevance of water deficits, linking elements of exposure and resilience to cumulative impacts on a range of ecosystem processes. This ecoclimatic framework is underpinned by two hypotheses: (i) exposure to water deficit can be represented probabilistically and used to estimate exposure thresholds across different vegetation types or ecosystems; and (ii) the cumulative impact of a series of water deficit events is defined by attributes governing the resistance and recovery of the affected processes. We present case studies comprising Pinus edulis and Eucalyptus globulus, tree species with contrasting ecological strategies, which demonstrate how links between exposure and resilience can be examined within our proposed framework. These examples reveal how climatic thresholds can be defined along a continuum of vegetation functional responses to water deficit regimes. The strength of this framework lies in identifying climatic thresholds on vegetation function in the absence of more complete mechanistic understanding, thereby guiding the formulation, application and benchmarking of more detailed modelling.