School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences - Research Publications
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ItemBigger is not necessarily better: empirical tests show that dispersal proxies misrepresent actual dispersal ability(The Royal Society, 2024-05)Tests for the role of species’ relative dispersal abilities in ecological and biogeographical models rely heavily on dispersal proxies, which are seldom substantiated by empirical measures of actual dispersal. This is exemplified by tests of dispersal–range size relationships and by metacommunity research that often features invertebrates, particularly freshwater insects. Using rare and unique empirical data on dispersal abilities of caddisflies, we tested whether actual dispersal abilities were associated with commonly used dispersal proxies (metrics of wing size and shape; expert opinion). Across 59 species in 12 families, wing morphology was not associated with actual dispersal. Within some families, individual wing metrics captured some dispersal differences among species, although useful metrics varied among families and predictive power was typically low. Dispersal abilities assigned by experts were either no better than random or actually poorer than random. Our results cast considerable doubt on research underpinned by dispersal proxies and scrutiny of previous research results may be warranted. Greater progress may lie in employing innovative survey and experimental design to measure actual dispersal in the field.
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ItemEvent attribution is not ready for a major role in loss and damage(Nature Research, 2023-05)Loss and damage funds are intended to support low-income regions experiencing impacts of human-caused climate change. Currently, event attribution should only play a limited role in determining loss and damage spending, but this role could grow as the field advances.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA systematic review of climate change science relevant to Australian design flood estimation(COPERNICUS GESELLSCHAFT MBH, 2024-03-15)Abstract. In response to flood risk, design flood estimation is a cornerstone of planning, infrastructure design, setting of insurance premiums, and emergency response planning. Under stationary assumptions, flood guidance and the methods used in design flood estimation are firmly established in practice and mature in their theoretical foundations, but under climate change, guidance is still in its infancy. Human-caused climate change is influencing factors that contribute to flood risk such as rainfall extremes and soil moisture, and there is a need for updated flood guidance. However, a barrier to updating flood guidance is the translation of the science into practical application. For example, most science pertaining to historical changes to flood risk focuses on examining trends in annual maximum flood events or the application of non-stationary flood frequency analysis. Although this science is valuable, in practice, design flood estimation focuses on exceedance probabilities much rarer than annual maximum events, such as the 1 % annual exceedance probability event or even rarer, using rainfall-based procedures, at locations where there are few to no observations of streamflow. Here, we perform a systematic review to summarize the state-of-the-art understanding of the impact of climate change on design flood estimation in the Australian context, while also drawing on international literature. In addition, a meta-analysis, whereby results from multiple studies are combined, is conducted for extreme rainfall to provide quantitative estimates of possible future changes. This information is described in the context of contemporary design flood estimation practice to facilitate the inclusion of climate science into design flood estimation practice.
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ItemNo Preview AvailableRainforest response to glacial terminations before and after human arrival in Lutruwita (Tasmania)(Elsevier BV, 2024-04-01)
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ItemNo Preview AvailableHistorical Agrarian Change and its Connections to Contemporary Agricultural Extension in Northwest Cambodia(ROUTLEDGE JOURNALS, TAYLOR & FRANCIS LTD, 2024-01-02)This historical overview uses a political ecology approach to examine agricultural change over time in Northwest Cambodia. It focuses on key historical periods, actors, and processes that continue to shape power, land, and farming relations in the region, emphasizing the relevance of this history for contemporary investments in agricultural extension services and research as part of the Zero Hunger by 2030 policy agenda for achieving the Sustainable Development Goals (SDG). Agricultural extension projects need to engage critically with historically complex and dynamic power, land, and farming relations – not only as the basis of social relations but as central to understanding the contemporary manifestation of farmer decision making and practice. Initiatives such as the SDGs replicate long histories of externally driven power-relations that orient benefits from changed practices towards elites in urban centers or distant global actors. Efforts to realize zero hunger by 2030 are endangered by neglect for the path-dependency of powerland-farming relations, which stretch from the past into the present to structure farmer decision making and practices.
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ItemPrecarity, illicit markets, and the 'mystery' of prices(Taylor and Francis Group, 2023)Stand-alone price analysis of illicit opium and coca does not explain why smallholders turn to illicit crops for coping and survival. Under conditions of precarity, illicit crop markets can stimulate productivity. They generate returns that can tame crises and relieve pressures. To smallholders facing marginalisation, violence, and climate change – growing opium and coca, despite their illegality, can reduce or spread risks and provide more predictability. Thus, rather than fix on the ‘invisible hand’ of price theory, the focus should be on the ‘visible hand’ of political entrepreneurship, interdependent relationships, and the metrics of precarity. To do this, this paper retrospectively compares illicit crop prices before and after certain historical moments in Bolivia, Myanmar, Colombia, and Afghanistan.
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ItemCriminal entrepreneurs as pioneers, intermediaries, and arbitrageurs in borderland economies(ELSEVIER, 2021-03)Many discussions of mafia and criminal entrepreneurs typically focus on violence and illegality, and less on their possible roles in rural transformation, even when they are located in borderland economies linking the subsistence cultivators of illicit crops to regional and global markets. This paper assesses the life stories of drug lords, the Castaño brothers of Colombia and Roberto Suárez Gomez of Bolivia, to draw inferences into how such rural elites in the illicit drugs trade are not only specialists in crime but are also actors who regulate and manipulate, often coercively, access to land and resources, mobilise labour and shape its divisions, and promote certain forms of capital accumulation. This paper contends that a better understanding of the roles of these rural elites as pioneers for capital, intermediaries in commodity chains, and arbitrageurs between state and borderlands may provide ways of unpacking key challenges to peacebuilding and economic transformation in borderlands where illicit economies thrive.
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ItemThe paradox of illicit economies: survival, resilience, and the limits of development and drug policy orthodoxy(Taylor and Francis Group, 2020)The illicit drug crops opium and coca are conventionally regarded as sources of instability, an ‘evil’ that breeds fragility and violence. Fragile states are supposed to be most vulnerable to their production and consequent harms. Yet by looking into the local contexts of the world’s leading opium and coca producers – Afghanistan, Myanmar, Colombia and Bolivia – these illicit crops are found to also be sources of stability, even drivers of economic growth. They enable marginalized communities and territories abandoned by the state to be reinserted into national and global markets. Within so-called ‘fragile’ and conflict-affected areas are displaced and dispossessed households adopting innovative and unorthodox strategies for coping and survival in changing and insecure environments. This paper maps out an approach, useful for examining the resilience that has emerged amidst violence and uncertainty in illicit-crop-producing territories, and which can hopefully tackle the continuing disconnect between drugs and development policy.