School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences - Research Publications

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    Preparing for a post-net-zero world (Comment)
    King, AD ; Peel, J ; Ziehn, T ; Bowen, KJ ; McClelland, HLO ; McMichael, C ; Nicholls, ZRJ ; Sniderman, JMK (NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2022-08-11)
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    Studying climate stabilization at Paris Agreement levels
    King, AD ; Sniderman, JMK ; Dittus, AJ ; Brown, JR ; Hawkins, E ; Ziehn, T (NATURE PORTFOLIO, 2021-12)
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    Transient and Quasi-Equilibrium Climate States at 1.5°C and 2°C Global Warming
    King, AD ; Borowiak, AR ; Brown, JR ; Frame, DJ ; Harrington, LJ ; Min, S-K ; Pendergrass, A ; Rugenstein, M ; Sniderman, JMK ; Stone, DA (AMER GEOPHYSICAL UNION, 2021-11)
    Abstract Recent climate change is characterized by rapid global warming, but the goal of the Paris Agreement is to achieve a stable climate where global temperatures remain well below 2°C above pre‐industrial levels. Inferences about conditions at or below 2°C are usually made based on transient climate projections. To better understand climate change impacts on natural and human systems under the Paris Agreement, we must understand how a stable climate may differ from transient conditions at the same warming level. Here we examine differences between transient and quasi‐equilibrium climates using a statistical framework applied to greenhouse gas‐only model simulations. This allows us to infer climate change patterns at 1.5°C and 2°C global warming in both transient and quasi‐equilibrium climate states. We find substantial local differences between seasonal‐average temperatures dependent on the rate of global warming, with mid‐latitude land regions in boreal summer considerably warmer in a transient climate than a quasi‐equilibrium state at both 1.5°C and 2°C global warming. In a rapidly warming world, such locations may experience a temporary emergence of a local climate change signal that weakens if the global climate stabilizes and the Paris Agreement goals are met. Our research demonstrates that the rate of global warming must be considered in regional projections.
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    Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying as a transient response to warming
    Sniderman, JMK ; Brown, JR ; Woodhead, JD ; King, AD ; Gillett, NP ; Tokarska, KB ; Lorbacher, K ; Hellstrom, J ; Drysdale, RN ; Meinshausen, M (NATURE PUBLISHING GROUP, 2019-03)
    Climate projections1–3 and observations over recent decades4,5 indicate that precipitation in subtropical latitudes declines in response to anthropogenic warming, with significant implications for food production and population sustainability. However, this conclusion is derived from emissions scenarios with rapidly increasing radiative forcing to the year 21001,2, which may represent very different conditions from both past and future ‘equilibrium’ warmer climates. Here, we examine multi-century future climate simulations and show that in the Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying ceases soon after global temperature stabilizes. Our results suggest that twenty-first century Southern Hemisphere subtropical drying is not a feature of warm climates per se, but is primarily a response to rapidly rising forcing and global temperatures, as tropical sea-surface temperatures rise more than southern subtropical sea-surface temperatures under transient warming. Subtropical drying may therefore be a temporary response to rapid warming: as greenhouse gas concentrations and global temperatures stabilize, Southern Hemisphere subtropical regions may experience positive precipitation trends.