School of Geography, Earth and Atmospheric Sciences - Research Publications
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ItemNo Preview AvailableA multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises( 2020)Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socio-economic changes (e.g., reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g., evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for: informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.
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ItemRupture Characteristics and Bedrock Structural Control of the 2016 M-w 6.0 Intraplate Earthquake in the Petermann Ranges, Australia(Seismological Society of America, 2020-06-01)The 20 May 2016 surface-rupturing intraplate earthquake in the Petermann Ranges is the largest onshore earthquake to occur in the Australian continent in 19 yr. We use in situ and Interferometric Synthetic Aperture Radar surface observations, aftershock distribution, and the fitting of P-wave source spectra to determine source properties of the Petermann earthquake. Surface observations reveal a 21-km-long surface rupture trace (strike=294°±29°) with heterogeneous vertical displacements (<0.1–0.96 m). Aftershock arrays suggest a triangular-shaped rupture plane (dip ≈ 30°) that intersects the subsurface projection of the major geophysical structure (Woodroffe thrust [WT]) proximal to the preferred location of the mainshock hypocenter, suggesting the mainshock nucleated at a fault junction. Footwall seismicity includes apparent southwest-dipping Riedel-type alignments, including possible activation of the deep segment of the WT. We estimate a moment magnitude (Mw) of 6.0 and a corner frequency (fc) of 0.2 Hz, respectively, from spectral fitting of source spectra in the 0.02–2 Hz frequency band. These translate into a fault area of 124 km2 and an average slip of 0.36 m. The estimated stress drop of 2.2 MPa is low for an intraplate earthquake; we attribute this to low-frictional slip (effective coefficient of friction >0.015) along rupture-parallel phyllosilicate-rich surfaces within the host rock fabric with possible additional contributions from elevated pore-fluid pressures.
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ItemA multi-hazards earth science perspective on the COVID-19 pandemic: the potential for concurrent and cascading crises.(Springer Science and Business Media LLC, 2020)Meteorological and geophysical hazards will concur and interact with coronavirus disease (COVID-19) impacts in many regions on Earth. These interactions will challenge the resilience of societies and systems. A comparison of plausible COVID-19 epidemic trajectories with multi-hazard time-series curves enables delineation of multi-hazard scenarios for selected countries (United States, China, Australia, Bangladesh) and regions (Texas). In multi-hazard crises, governments and other responding agents may be required to make complex, highly compromised, hierarchical decisions aimed to balance COVID-19 risks and protocols with disaster response and recovery operations. Contemporary socioeconomic changes (e.g. reducing risk mitigation measures, lowering restrictions on human activity to stimulate economic recovery) may alter COVID-19 epidemiological dynamics and increase future risks relating to natural hazards and COVID-19 interactions. For example, the aggregation of evacuees into communal environments and increased demand on medical, economic, and infrastructural capacity associated with natural hazard impacts may increase COVID-19 exposure risks and vulnerabilities. COVID-19 epidemiologic conditions at the time of a natural hazard event might also influence the characteristics of emergency and humanitarian responses (e.g. evacuation and sheltering procedures, resource availability, implementation modalities, and assistance types). A simple epidemic phenomenological model with a concurrent disaster event predicts a greater infection rate following events during the pre-infection rate peak period compared with post-peak events, highlighting the need for enacting COVID-19 counter measures in advance of seasonal increases in natural hazards. Inclusion of natural hazard inputs into COVID-19 epidemiological models could enhance the evidence base for informing contemporary policy across diverse multi-hazard scenarios, defining and addressing gaps in disaster preparedness strategies and resourcing, and implementing a future-planning systems approach into contemporary COVID-19 mitigation strategies. Our recommendations may assist governments and their advisors to develop risk reduction strategies for natural and cascading hazards during the COVID-19 pandemic.